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Post by kersting13 on Oct 31, 2016 21:48:10 GMT -8
The playcalling and the schemes and the in-game strategies at this point seem no better or worse than what Riley/Banker/Langsdorf came up with in their last few years. I don't think anyone who watches any amount of football can actually believe this. Riley may not have gotten them to work, but he ALWAYS had a plan on offense. GA needs to come up with an actual offense first. Then maybe we'll see some sort of a plan out of it.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 31, 2016 23:26:08 GMT -8
I love the enthusiasm! Would you care to put money on that 6-6 proposition? I will give you 3:1 odds. Happily. I would hazard to guess that Oregon State's chances are much closer to 130:1 than 3:1. The odds that we get to 5-7 I think are more like 7% than 50%, as I see it. If Oregon State stays healthy, they should beat Arizona. With the other three games, I want to say that they win at least one. Do not ask me to guess which one. That bring the Beavers to 4-8, which is a great season (when compared to last year and compared to how I was feeling heading into the California game). The difference between winning one of the three non-Arizona games plus the Arizona game is a huge chasm in my mind's eye. I suppose that Oregon State could just flat out outscore Stanford, but teams outside of the state of Washington are averaging 11 ppg on them. I think that they have a top 5 defense. Offensively, they are middling, but unlike California, Washington, and Washington State, their strength is Oregon State's weakness. They run the ball extremely well. All-told, I think that they are a top 20 team which merely has had the misfortune of playing a top 5 schedule. I see the Beavers losing and by at least two scores. Having said that, the game is winnable, but Oregon State needs to have the front 7 play out of their minds and find the end zone at least twice. UCLA is better than Oregon State, and the game is in Pasadena. Curious to see what happens in that Colorado game. UCLA is going to start playing inspired, or it is likely to miss a bowl game. If Colorado wins, UCLA will be sitting at 3-6, needing all three wins. Might have a let down, knowing that they need the three. Either way, they get two extra days to prepare for Oregon State. (The Bruins play on Thursday this week.) Going to be difficult. Arizona is a should win. The Wildcats look bad. Arizona has not won in Corvallis since 2009 (Nick Foles' first game as starter). The Beavers are 6-2 since Parker Stadium was renamed Reser Stadium. Civil War will be interesting. Oregon is staring into the teeth of @usc, Stanford, and @utah. If they drop two of those three, I do not know that they will be that motivated to play Oregon State. The Beavers could steal one from the worst Duck team in 25 years. You lost me at giving me 3 to 1 odds on something I said had a 1 in 4 odds of happening. 3 to 1 odds is exactly the same as 1 in 4. 3 to 1 against means that you bet one and get my 3 plus your 1 back. In betting odds, you usually identify the size of the pot and how each side will create the pot. Then, one or the other takes the pot. So, you put in 1 of something to my 3, creating a pot of 4. If you win, you get the 4. If you lose, you get 0. I should add that there will probably not be enough bowl eligible teams. Three or more 5-7 teams will probably make it. Oregon State's abysmal 949 will likely keep them home at 5-7, but Oregon's 969 may be enough to get in at 5-7.
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Post by baseba1111 on Oct 31, 2016 23:45:42 GMT -8
You lost me at giving me 3 to 1 odds on something I said had a 1 in 4 odds of happening. 3 to 1 odds is exactly the same as 1 in 4. 3 to 1 against means that you bet one and get my 3 plus your 1 back. In betting odds, you usually identify the size of the pot and how each side will create the pot. Then, one or the other takes the pot. So, you put in 1 of something to my 3, creating a pot of 4. If you win, you get the 4. If you lose, you get 0. I should add that there will probably not be enough bowl eligible teams. Three or more 5-7 teams will probably make it. Oregon State's abysmal 949 will likely keep them home at 5-7, but Oregon's 969 may be enough to get in at 5-7. I'm not so sure on that... when took a quick glance... 37 already are bowl eligible... 24 have (5) and 23 (4) wins with 4 games to play. There are also a few 3 win teams with fairly easy last 4 games that could conceivably be at 6 wins. I do not think more than a couple 5-7 teams make it even if some of these slide. But, weird things can happen.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 1, 2016 12:37:45 GMT -8
3 to 1 odds is exactly the same as 1 in 4. 3 to 1 against means that you bet one and get my 3 plus your 1 back. In betting odds, you usually identify the size of the pot and how each side will create the pot. Then, one or the other takes the pot. So, you put in 1 of something to my 3, creating a pot of 4. If you win, you get the 4. If you lose, you get 0. I should add that there will probably not be enough bowl eligible teams. Three or more 5-7 teams will probably make it. Oregon State's abysmal 949 will likely keep them home at 5-7, but Oregon's 969 may be enough to get in at 5-7. I'm not so sure on that... when took a quick glance... 37 already are bowl eligible... 24 have (5) and 23 (4) wins with 4 games to play. There are also a few 3 win teams with fairly easy last 4 games that could conceivably be at 6 wins. I do not think more than a couple 5-7 teams make it even if some of these slide. But, weird things can happen. The projections that I have seen show three 5-7 teams going (as well as 6-7 Hawai'i). Usually, those three teams are 5-7 Boston College, 5-7 Oregon, and 5-7 Cincinnati in that order. Most people believe that Notre Dame will probably go 5-7 (or worse) but that they will probably turn down an invite at 5-7. If the Irish accept a bowl bid, they would probably knock out Cincinnati.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 6, 2016 0:17:15 GMT -8
3 to 1 odds is exactly the same as 1 in 4. 3 to 1 against means that you bet one and get my 3 plus your 1 back. In betting odds, you usually identify the size of the pot and how each side will create the pot. Then, one or the other takes the pot. So, you put in 1 of something to my 3, creating a pot of 4. If you win, you get the 4. If you lose, you get 0. I should add that there will probably not be enough bowl eligible teams. Three or more 5-7 teams will probably make it. Oregon State's abysmal 949 will likely keep them home at 5-7, but Oregon's 969 may be enough to get in at 5-7. I'm not so sure on that... when took a quick glance... 37 already are bowl eligible... 24 have (5) and 23 (4) wins with 4 games to play. There are also a few 3 win teams with fairly easy last 4 games that could conceivably be at 6 wins. I do not think more than a couple 5-7 teams make it even if some of these slide. But, weird things can happen. Just to update, because I think that it is an interesting conversation to have, 37 were bowl eligible going into this weekend. 11 of the 24 joined in. Now at 48 with 32 spots waiting to be filled. Down to three weekends left for teams in a conference with a championship game. Four for teams without a championship game. Army has three games left but one does not count toward bowl eligibility (Morgan State), so they effectively have to beat Notre Dame or Navy to get to 7. (Army played two FCS teams.) If Army does not get to 7, they likely are at the front of the line at 6-6. If Fresno State beats Hawai'i, Hawai'i likely finished with five wins at best. May need Army and four 5-7 teams to fill up the 80 spots. Interesting as always.
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