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Post by Mike84 on Oct 1, 2024 10:31:24 GMT -8
If anything is constant in college football right now, it is that nothing is constant. Who is in which conference could change yearly. The playoff format will get tweaked ASAP if any of the big-name schools feel like they aren't getting their due. Anything we think we know is likely to change almost before we think we know it.
So, with that being said, I'm just trying to understand the current football playoff and how it might be affected (if at all) by a re-built Pac-12.
100% of the places you look will tell you that "the 5 highest-ranked conference champions will get automatic bids". Beyond that, SOME of the places you read will tell you that the top 4 seeds, the ones that get a first-round bye, MUST be from the P4 conferences (Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC). Others just say that it is *assumed* that the Top 4 seeds will be from the P4 conferences.
Speaking of assumptions, NOBODY (that I've found) talks about the possibility of the 5 highest-ranked conference champs not including all of the P4 conferences. Nobody even entertains the idea that say, the Big 12 champ could be ranked behind the MWC champ and the AAC champ. I'm not saying this is every likely to happen, but it almost seems like the unstated fact here is that all 4 P4 champs will get in no matter what.
At any rate, it seems like having a G5 conference champ get an automatic bid is a good thing. First of all, it reduces the likelihood of a messy antitrust lawsuit brought by the G5 schools. Secondly, it gives all the G5 schools a real path.
With that, is there any reason to hope that the re-built Pac-12 could somehow, someday, rejoin the P4 and become a power conference in football again? What would be the advantage? Are we just as well off trying to be the highest-ranked G5 conference team?
As I said at the start, it will likely all change anyway. Imagine the outcry that will ensue when an un- or low-ranked G5 conference champ gets in (due to "automatic" bid) while the ranked 3rd place team in the SEC or Big Ten (or most likely Big 12) does not. How quickly will that G5 automatic bid go away?
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Post by RenoBeaver on Oct 1, 2024 10:39:51 GMT -8
Not likely.
The next move in CF is further consolidation of power by the SEC and BIG 10. If anything the whole structure blows up and a new Division of the best 40 to 60 schools break off into a new Division outside the NCAA.
If that's the case I wouldn't count OSU out of consideration, but in the end it will come down to NIL if OSU wants or even can to compete at that level.
It's moving toward quasi minor league football. I'm not sure I'd even want OSU to participate in that as a fan of college football.
I'd be happy staying within the confines of the NCAA and not kneeling to the SEC and BIG 10 overlords.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Oct 1, 2024 11:10:23 GMT -8
I think Reno is right.
The only constant in all of this is it's all about 💰
OSU needed to build something bigger than it has in football over the last several decades. Lots of missteps along the way, starting with with the Andros/Milton debacle. We were in college football purgatory for too long. We had moments of glory, but they were all too fleeting. The train has left the station without us.
So.....let the rabid blue bloods have their minors to the NFL. We will hopefully be a part of something that more closely resembles traditional college football.
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Post by jimbeav on Oct 1, 2024 11:20:01 GMT -8
I read in a mailbag column, I forget if it was Daschel or Wilner, where he talked about what it means to be a "Power Conference". He basically said that this was kind of an arbitrary and made-up moniker. All it really means is that it's a conference that has a big chunk of their athletic department budget paid for through media revenue. What makes a "non-Power Conference" is that their budgets have very small media revenue, if any at all.
That's basically it. That's what defines a power conference, is this one question: Are they majorly benefitting from media riches?
What that means for the Pac-12 is really up in the air. The current media deals currently look like this (approximately):
B1G: $90 mil/yr/school
SEC: $80 mil/yr/school
Big12: $31 mil/yr/school
ACC: $30 mil/yr/school
Pac12: $10? $15? $20? mil/yr/school
MWC: $4 mil/yr/school
...and I'm assuming other G5 conferences are similar or lower than MWC...
So if the Pac-12 ends up at, say, $15 mil/yr/school, then that puts us right smack dab in the middle of the best G5 conference, and the worst P4 conference. What does that mean? Hell if I know....
Ultimately, it's all going to come down to individual negotiations. Are we able to negotiate with the CFP to allow 6 conference champions in instead of 5? Are we able to negotiate tie-ins with good bowl games? This is what will really matter in the end, moreso than a "P5" or "G5" designation....
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Post by Judge Smails on Oct 1, 2024 12:02:57 GMT -8
I read in a mailbag column, I forget if it was Daschel or Wilner, where he talked about what it means to be a "Power Conference". He basically said that this was kind of an arbitrary and made-up moniker. All it really means is that it's a conference that has a big chunk of their athletic department budget paid for through media revenue. What makes a "non-Power Conference" is that their budgets have very small media revenue, if any at all. That's basically it. That's what defines a power conference, is this one question: Are they majorly benefitting from media riches? What that means for the Pac-12 is really up in the air. The current media deals currently look like this (approximately): B1G: $90 mil/yr/school SEC: $80 mil/yr/school Big12: $31 mil/yr/school ACC: $30 mil/yr/school Pac12: $10? $15? $20? mil/yr/school MWC: $4 mil/yr/school ...and I'm assuming other G5 conferences are similar or lower than MWC... So if the Pac-12 ends up at, say, $15 mil/yr/school, then that puts us right smack dab in the middle of the best G5 conference, and the worst P4 conference. What does that mean? Hell if I know.... Ultimately, it's all going to come down to individual negotiations. Are we able to negotiate with the CFP to allow 6 conference champions in instead of 5? Are we able to negotiate tie-ins with good bowl games? This is what will really matter in the end, moreso than a "P5" or "G5" designation.... That’s not 100% correct. The P4 schools have the ability to make some autonomous decisions without the G5 conferences. That is what we lost when the traitors left. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 1, 2024 12:24:11 GMT -8
Not likely. The next move in CF is further consolidation of power by the SEC and BIG 10. If anything the whole structure blows up and a new Division of the best 40 to 60 schools break off into a new Division outside the NCAA. If that's the case I wouldn't count OSU out of consideration, but in the end it will come down to NIL if OSU wants or even can to compete at that level. It's moving toward quasi minor league football. I'm not sure I'd even want OSU to participate in that as a fan of college football. I'd be happy staying within the confines of the NCAA and not kneeling to the SEC and BIG 10 overlords. More specifically, what the existing 4 won't give up is the distribution of the CFB playoff payout. SEC and Big 10 are splitting 58% of the payout. ACC and Big 12 are splitting 32%. Those 4 are not going to agree to let a 5th in and shrink their share. That is the bottom line here. The major issue that will keep holding us back is the next round of playoff negotiations we are stuck with the 1.8M per team G5 payment. If in the next several years in the Pac-12 from 2026 to 2030 we prove to be so good we can't be ignored, the conferences will gut the Pac-12 again before they agree to elevate us. they will take OSU, WSU and dare I say even maybe a SDSU or Boise State if they are popular enough rather than risk dividing the money more. Realignment is coming again. It will be interesting to see where we land in all of it, which makes this basketball strategy so unique. We are putting a lot of our revenue potential there, as to not be so dependent on football money and CFB payouts. |
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Post by ag87 on Oct 1, 2024 12:56:35 GMT -8
Well said. That's what I think.
The following is very interesting to me. The current P4 is 66 schools? What happens if that number gets moved to around 50 through some means. I think that's coming.
I'm completely making up these numbers but let's assume the football playoff is worth $300m. P4 goes to 50. The other 80 D1 schools say screw u to the 50 and create a separate playoff system. The networks pay $150m for that. And then because the original playoff system loses its luster, that original only starts earning $200m.
I believe the 10 or so most wealthy athletic departments (Tex, Michigan, OSU, ND, USC and so on) are going to let their greed bring them down.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 1, 2024 21:02:55 GMT -8
Not likely. The next move in CF is further consolidation of power by the SEC and BIG 10. If anything the whole structure blows up and a new Division of the best 40 to 60 schools break off into a new Division outside the NCAA. If that's the case I wouldn't count OSU out of consideration, but in the end it will come down to NIL if OSU wants or even can to compete at that level. It's moving toward quasi minor league football. I'm not sure I'd even want OSU to participate in that as a fan of college football. I'd be happy staying within the confines of the NCAA and not kneeling to the SEC and BIG 10 overlords. More specifically, what the existing 4 won't give up is the distribution of the CFB playoff payout. SEC and Big 10 are splitting 58% of the payout. ACC and Big 12 are splitting 32%. Those 4 are not going to agree to let a 5th in and shrink their share. That is the bottom line here. The major issue that will keep holding us back is the next round of playoff negotiations we are stuck with the 1.8M per team G5 payment. If in the next several years in the Pac-12 from 2026 to 2030 we prove to be so good we can't be ignored, the conferences will gut the Pac-12 again before they agree to elevate us. they will take OSU, WSU and dare I say even maybe a SDSU or Boise State if they are popular enough rather than risk dividing the money more. Realignment is coming again. It will be interesting to see where we land in all of it, which makes this basketball strategy so unique. We are putting a lot of our revenue potential there, as to not be so dependent on football money and CFB payouts. I think that the P4 tried to salt the Earth so that no additional FCS teams would move up, so that they could maintain a voting bloc majority. However, FCS teams are still making the jump. Eventually, the P4 will have to pay off a fifth conference, will be compelled to expand, or will have to blow the whole thing up and start over. Also, Oregon State and Wazzu negotiated for a larger share of the CFP payout than any other G5 team. I do not know where that money came from. It may have come from the P4. And that extra money could be the insurance policy that keeps the P4 in charge until the end of the new CFP contract. (Or heck, it could be paid for by the FCS teams moving up.) Oregon State and Wazzu may not be P5, but they are not really G5 either. I just do not think that the P4 is as stable as indicated. The ACC is still possibly on the brink of hemorrhaging apart. And the whole thing is predicated on keeping the P4 voting as one bloc. We'll see how this all plays out. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Oct 1, 2024 21:27:36 GMT -8
If the powers have their way it will be another league of semi pros or a new top division consolidated. There is quite a few teams in the current P4 that will not make the grade and will be looking for conferences and affiliations in the future. Likely programs will need to be spending over 150 millionish on athletics to make the grade in 2030.
In 2023 UW was spending about 140 million and that was the 25th highest public university.
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Post by scottishsteel on Oct 2, 2024 3:12:21 GMT -8
Not likely. The next move in CF is further consolidation of power by the SEC and BIG 10. If anything the whole structure blows up and a new Division of the best 40 to 60 schools break off into a new Division outside the NCAA. If that's the case I wouldn't count OSU out of consideration, but in the end it will come down to NIL if OSU wants or even can to compete at that level. It's moving toward quasi minor league football. I'm not sure I'd even want OSU to participate in that as a fan of college football. I'd be happy staying within the confines of the NCAA and not kneeling to the SEC and BIG 10 overlords. The B1G and SEC literally have a meeting next Thursday (Oct 10) just between the two of them to discuss their next steps; one of the speculated topics is automatic playoff berths with the thought being they are pushing for 4 guaranteed spots each. It's already begun to strong arm the rest of college football. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 2, 2024 9:48:35 GMT -8
Not likely. The next move in CF is further consolidation of power by the SEC and BIG 10. If anything the whole structure blows up and a new Division of the best 40 to 60 schools break off into a new Division outside the NCAA. If that's the case I wouldn't count OSU out of consideration, but in the end it will come down to NIL if OSU wants or even can to compete at that level. It's moving toward quasi minor league football. I'm not sure I'd even want OSU to participate in that as a fan of college football. I'd be happy staying within the confines of the NCAA and not kneeling to the SEC and BIG 10 overlords. The B1G and SEC literally have a meeting next Thursday (Oct 10) just between the two of them to discuss their next steps; one of the speculated topics is automatic playoff berths with the thought being they are pushing for 4 guaranteed spots each. It's already begun to strong arm the rest of college football. Although they can't "strong arm" without ESPN's ok. NOTHING will happen unless it benefits the media partner in some way. There will have to be a balancing act as ESPN, nor any of the media partners can pay more for less inventory. If there is going to be a split of the top 40+ schools there will be a frenzy to create that next tier and all that inventory will create multiple ops for a pile of cash. The key is for the next tier to be organized and ready. Eff the large NIL, 9-figure AD budget schools and the elite CFP. Schools need to be proactive and create another option that will have far more inventory versus letting ESPN run all of college football. TV screens need to be filled on Thursday/Friday nights... All day Saturday, and even a Sunday evening or two (Not every college fan is an NFL fan... especially when you schedule schools with little or no pro team alliance/access). To me the Pac12 rebuild stands as a precursor to being "ready", to stand against the tide and be proactive in creating that 8-10 team, 10 conferences organization. The "have nots" need to wake up and quit trying to garner the attention of "big brothers" for an invite to where they can't monetarily keep pace and truly do not belong. They need to begin to band together in first creating scheduling alliances and having their own meetings of the mind. Stand pat and ESPN and the like control your futures. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 2, 2024 10:40:07 GMT -8
Media is always going to be a bit of a fight.
Big media made significant prospective investments. big cash up front and they need to protect that investment. It is a lot of what we are facing now with this huge pushback on the rebuilding Pac-12. They don't want the new power conference because it is a threat. They will do what they can to keep their games the center of national attention and Pac-12 games hidden.
but media will go to where there is money.
The best thing we can do to increase our odds is sign up with somebody like the CW and kill it. Be good. the whole damn conference. I hate to say it. but Boise needs to be good. Fresno. SDSU, WSU. all of us need to be good. and exciting. we need crazy barn burner games. We need Pac-12 after dark to be a thing again.
People have to watch. If we are on an alternate, but still nationwide channel like CW, the big media can't bury us to promote their major investments. They have to reckon with us. And if we are actually worth it, they will try to buy us. It really is the pathway.
But that only really works if we are good. and staying good is the challenge. We need help with NIL. we need some rules and legislation. I think that is coming. it might be a year or two still, but I think even the big boys are getting frustrated at how it is shaking out.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Oct 2, 2024 11:27:13 GMT -8
No.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Oct 2, 2024 11:53:44 GMT -8
Media is always going to be a bit of a fight. Big media made significant prospective investments. big cash up front and they need to protect that investment. It is a lot of what we are facing now with this huge pushback on the rebuilding Pac-12. They don't want the new power conference because it is a threat. They will do what they can to keep their games the center of national attention and Pac-12 games hidden. but media will go to where there is money. The best thing we can do to increase our odds is sign up with somebody like the CW and kill it. Be good. the whole damn conference. I hate to say it. but Boise needs to be good. Fresno. SDSU, WSU. all of us need to be good. and exciting. we need crazy barn burner games. We need Pac-12 after dark to be a thing again. People have to watch. If we are on an alternate, but still nationwide channel like CW, the big media can't bury us to promote their major investments. They have to reckon with us. And if we are actually worth it, they will try to buy us. It really is the pathway. But that only really works if we are good. and staying good is the challenge. We need help with NIL. we need some rules and legislation. I think that is coming. it might be a year or two still, but I think even the big boys are getting frustrated at how it is shaking out. All Pac 12 programs should be (and likely are to some degree) assuming player development will be the most important thing. None of the Pac will be able to compete NIL-wise with the big boys. The gap will continue to widen. If you are not in the P4, you need to assume every kid that "emerges" will be poached by a P4.....next man up. Lots of kids getting poached by big programs will actually be a recruiting pitch. That's the game we gotta play. Success for PAC 12 teams will likely be cyclical.....build it up, the big boys pay attention....coaches, players poached. Rebuild....wash, rinse, repeat. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 2, 2024 12:18:57 GMT -8
Media is always going to be a bit of a fight. Big media made significant prospective investments. big cash up front and they need to protect that investment. It is a lot of what we are facing now with this huge pushback on the rebuilding Pac-12. They don't want the new power conference because it is a threat. They will do what they can to keep their games the center of national attention and Pac-12 games hidden. but media will go to where there is money. The best thing we can do to increase our odds is sign up with somebody like the CW and kill it. Be good. the whole damn conference. I hate to say it. but Boise needs to be good. Fresno. SDSU, WSU. all of us need to be good. and exciting. we need crazy barn burner games. We need Pac-12 after dark to be a thing again. People have to watch. If we are on an alternate, but still nationwide channel like CW, the big media can't bury us to promote their major investments. They have to reckon with us. And if we are actually worth it, they will try to buy us. It really is the pathway. But that only really works if we are good. and staying good is the challenge. We need help with NIL. we need some rules and legislation. I think that is coming. it might be a year or two still, but I think even the big boys are getting frustrated at how it is shaking out. All Pac 12 programs should be (and likely are to some degree) assuming player development will be the most important thing. None of the Pac will be able to compete NIL-wise with the big boys. The gap will continue to widen. If you are not in the P4, you need to assume every kid that "emerges" will be poached by a P4.....next man up. Lots of kids getting poached by big programs will actually be a recruiting pitch. That's the game we gotta play. Success for PAC 12 teams will likely be cyclical.....build it up, the big boys pay attention....coaches, players poached. Rebuild....wash, rinse, repeat. Its why we need some help in legislation. Big boys will always have more money, but I think they are finding the money isn't worth it. Not trying to open a debate... because there is more to it, but was DJU worth what FSU paid? Hell, was Martinez worth what Miami paid when their freshman is just as good? Ward is worth it, clearly. We are barely into this NIL era but I think we are already getting to the reality of it is not all that it is cracked up to be. Players are already finding out they are not worth a fraction of what they are being told, only a handful of players are really getting rich, and these sponsors and investors are dumping millions into kids that are turning around and not wanting to actually complete any of the NIL part. They don't want to be in ads or sign autographs or do meet and greats which is what that money they are getting is actually for, mostly. Collective sponsors are feeling a little ripped of, and so are these kids whose are getting tales of riches whispered in their ears. They get one $10,000 check and think this is coming in forever and they never see another one again. We will never be on equal ground, for sure. but something is going to give and I think it won't be too long before there is some new laws or regulations that help us out and put some kind of control on it. To be sure, it also hurts the big boys when their million dollar QB bounces to the next big school to be a $1.2 million QB... It is hard to build marketing and fan interest around a revolving roster year over year. |
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