QS and HQS: How did the Beaver starters compare with MLB in '24
Sept 27, 2024 21:27:14 GMT -8
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Post by easyheat on Sept 27, 2024 21:27:14 GMT -8
Defining Quality Starts and High Quality Starts: A while back, a new baseball term began circulating among baseball people that differentiated a good starting pitching performance as opposed to something less than good. A good performance from the starter was labeled a “quality start” . Later the term was quantified, a quality start in MLB required pitching a minimum of 6 innings and not allowing more than 3 earned runs. Recently the metric QS6/3 has been joined by HQS7/2 which identifies a “High Quality” starting performance of 7 IP with no more than 2 ER allowed. These two metrics are now often heard in dugouts, baseball conversations, and are being used by Management and Agents in contract negotiations.
MLB Data: The MLB data for 2024 for QS and HQ starts is interesting. In 4,860 starts, MLB starting pitchers, 1,678 starts qualified as a QS (34.5%) and additionally, 526 were HQS (11.5%). One additional inning pitched and one fewer earned runs allowed made quite a difference. The Phillies who have relentlessly drafted young arms with a starter’s profile lead MLB with 34 HQ starts this year. The Guardians who have built the back end of their pitching staff first and rely heavily on their Bullpen, are last with only 6 HQ starts.
How does OSU compare with MLB?: I was curious as to how OSU would compare with the MLB numbers but in doing so realized that MLB starters are more mature, stronger, more experienced and posess better stuff to navigate more innings. There are also some restrictions that prevent college starters from reaching the 6 and 7 inning threshold. So, I modified the MLB model by dropping one inning from the formulation of both QS and HQS. For OSU purposes, I used QS5/3 and HQS6/2. There are several factors that can influence a starting pitcher’s ability to log 5 or 6 innings. Some are beyond the pitcher's control.
1. Pitch counts - In analyzing our staff’s performance in 2024, it becomes obvious Hunter and Segura were on a lower PC than were May and Kmatz. In 16 starts, Kmatz averaged 86.6 pitches with a range of 65 to 108. In 14 starts, May averaged 83.4 pitches with a range of 41 (injury) to 114. In 15 starts, Segura averaged 75.4 pitches with a range of 47 to 88. In 8 starts, Hunter averaged 64.6 pitches with a range of 53 to 79. Coach Dorman's PC limit sometimes had a direct bearing on a starter's opportunity to reach the 5th or 6th inning. There were situations where the OSU starter was doing well but was hooked because he had reached his pitch count.
2. Fatigue – Once legs begin to go, mechanics break down, pitches are “up in the zone”, pitch quality deteriorates and hitter’s counts increase, usually favoring the batter.
3. Decrease in Velocity or Spin – Simply put, the starter loses his stuff. Pitches become ineffective and gets shelled.
4. Increased traffic on the bases – more baserunners via BB and base hits. Repeatedly having to pitch your way out a jam in the early innings will prevent you from reaching 5 complete.
5. Loud Barrells – the starters pitches are being hit hard and deep. Degraded pitch quality, base knocks and loud outs can mean an early shower.
6. Injury, soreness or pain - any discomfort in the shoulder, arm elbow or wrist usually dictates an early exit.
7. Game gets out of hand – either way, the starter may be pulled prior to the 5th inning turning the game over to the Bullpen crew.
Beaver Stats: In 2024 the Beavers used 9 pitchers that started 61 games, and pitched 294 innings (55.4 %) of the team's 530.1 Innings pitched. Kmatz led the Beavs with four QS starts and seven HQS starts. 69% of Kmatz starts were Q or HQ outings. May had one QS and six HQS. 50% of May starts were Q or HQ outings. Segura had six QS and two HQS with 57% of Segura's starts resulting in a QS or HQS performance. Hunter had two HQS starts with 25% of his outings falling in the HQS category. Other Beaver starters, Keljo (3), Lattery (2), Jiminez (1), Lawson (1), Palmer (1), and Mejia (1) did not record a QS or HQS statistic.
A 3 year comparison: In comparing OSU pitching stats over the past 3 seasons, a simple breakdown looks like this
2024: 61 starts, using 9 starters, 11 QS, 17 HQS = 28 total Q/HQ starts. Leaders: Kmatz (11), Segura (8), May (7).
2023: 60 starts, using 10 starters, 13 QS, 7 HQS = 20 Q/HQ starts. Leaders: Sellers (9), Kmatz (7), Hunter (2).
2022: 66 starts, using 8 starters, 23 QS, 13 HQS = 36 Q/HQ starts. Leaders: Hjerpe (17), Kmatz (9), Pfennigs (5), Hunter (4). The dominant pitching of Cooper Hjerpe made '22 a banner year for OSU pitching. The Beavers received a QS or HQS in 55% of their starts that year.
In the '24 season Oregon State starters had 13 HQS in 61 games, or 21.3% of their starts. The Phillies had 34 HQS in 162 games, or 20.9% of their starts. Even with using the difference in the number of innings requirement in the formula, the Beavers look good. 45.9 % of all OSU starts resulted in a QS or HQS last season.
MLB Data: The MLB data for 2024 for QS and HQ starts is interesting. In 4,860 starts, MLB starting pitchers, 1,678 starts qualified as a QS (34.5%) and additionally, 526 were HQS (11.5%). One additional inning pitched and one fewer earned runs allowed made quite a difference. The Phillies who have relentlessly drafted young arms with a starter’s profile lead MLB with 34 HQ starts this year. The Guardians who have built the back end of their pitching staff first and rely heavily on their Bullpen, are last with only 6 HQ starts.
How does OSU compare with MLB?: I was curious as to how OSU would compare with the MLB numbers but in doing so realized that MLB starters are more mature, stronger, more experienced and posess better stuff to navigate more innings. There are also some restrictions that prevent college starters from reaching the 6 and 7 inning threshold. So, I modified the MLB model by dropping one inning from the formulation of both QS and HQS. For OSU purposes, I used QS5/3 and HQS6/2. There are several factors that can influence a starting pitcher’s ability to log 5 or 6 innings. Some are beyond the pitcher's control.
1. Pitch counts - In analyzing our staff’s performance in 2024, it becomes obvious Hunter and Segura were on a lower PC than were May and Kmatz. In 16 starts, Kmatz averaged 86.6 pitches with a range of 65 to 108. In 14 starts, May averaged 83.4 pitches with a range of 41 (injury) to 114. In 15 starts, Segura averaged 75.4 pitches with a range of 47 to 88. In 8 starts, Hunter averaged 64.6 pitches with a range of 53 to 79. Coach Dorman's PC limit sometimes had a direct bearing on a starter's opportunity to reach the 5th or 6th inning. There were situations where the OSU starter was doing well but was hooked because he had reached his pitch count.
2. Fatigue – Once legs begin to go, mechanics break down, pitches are “up in the zone”, pitch quality deteriorates and hitter’s counts increase, usually favoring the batter.
3. Decrease in Velocity or Spin – Simply put, the starter loses his stuff. Pitches become ineffective and gets shelled.
4. Increased traffic on the bases – more baserunners via BB and base hits. Repeatedly having to pitch your way out a jam in the early innings will prevent you from reaching 5 complete.
5. Loud Barrells – the starters pitches are being hit hard and deep. Degraded pitch quality, base knocks and loud outs can mean an early shower.
6. Injury, soreness or pain - any discomfort in the shoulder, arm elbow or wrist usually dictates an early exit.
7. Game gets out of hand – either way, the starter may be pulled prior to the 5th inning turning the game over to the Bullpen crew.
Beaver Stats: In 2024 the Beavers used 9 pitchers that started 61 games, and pitched 294 innings (55.4 %) of the team's 530.1 Innings pitched. Kmatz led the Beavs with four QS starts and seven HQS starts. 69% of Kmatz starts were Q or HQ outings. May had one QS and six HQS. 50% of May starts were Q or HQ outings. Segura had six QS and two HQS with 57% of Segura's starts resulting in a QS or HQS performance. Hunter had two HQS starts with 25% of his outings falling in the HQS category. Other Beaver starters, Keljo (3), Lattery (2), Jiminez (1), Lawson (1), Palmer (1), and Mejia (1) did not record a QS or HQS statistic.
A 3 year comparison: In comparing OSU pitching stats over the past 3 seasons, a simple breakdown looks like this
2024: 61 starts, using 9 starters, 11 QS, 17 HQS = 28 total Q/HQ starts. Leaders: Kmatz (11), Segura (8), May (7).
2023: 60 starts, using 10 starters, 13 QS, 7 HQS = 20 Q/HQ starts. Leaders: Sellers (9), Kmatz (7), Hunter (2).
2022: 66 starts, using 8 starters, 23 QS, 13 HQS = 36 Q/HQ starts. Leaders: Hjerpe (17), Kmatz (9), Pfennigs (5), Hunter (4). The dominant pitching of Cooper Hjerpe made '22 a banner year for OSU pitching. The Beavers received a QS or HQS in 55% of their starts that year.
In the '24 season Oregon State starters had 13 HQS in 61 games, or 21.3% of their starts. The Phillies had 34 HQS in 162 games, or 20.9% of their starts. Even with using the difference in the number of innings requirement in the formula, the Beavers look good. 45.9 % of all OSU starts resulted in a QS or HQS last season.