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Post by easyheat on Jul 13, 2024 17:21:43 GMT -8
If you believe all of the Mock Drafts and Draft Rankings published by a host of college baseball websites and writers, the Beavs are looking at 5 or possibly 6 players being drafted tomorrow. The projections are consistently showing only Bazzana and May being taken in the early rounds with Travis going 1 or 2 in the first round and Aiden going late 3rd round or early 4th. Both will surely sign and begin their Pro careers.
Guerra projects late 11th round or 12th with no slot value. Kmatz projects 12th round and Kasper is showing up in the 15th or 16th round. Hainline appears in one Mock late in the draft but is absent in the others. With no slot designated for their draft position, we have 4 players that are looking at the obligatory $75-150k signing bonus or hoping to negotiate something better. The decision then becomes a choice of two options.
Kasper is out of eligibility and would sign. For the other three, they have an option - they can sign for an amount they can negotiate, then spend a year in a Complex League or Low-A. or they can return to OSU, Is it possible one or more of the four return for their Senior season, improve their skills and elevate their draft position in the 2025 draft? To my thinking, with nothing left to prove, Kmatz is finished with college ball, but Guerra and Hainline would benefit substantially from another year of college baseball and the additional national exposure.
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cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,564 
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Post by cake on Jul 13, 2024 18:21:43 GMT -8
Good analysis. Guerra and Hainline are the question marks. My assessment, neither are worth the draft capital in that area to take a chance they might make it. If I had to absolutely guess, Hainline might leave, Guerra might come back.
Guerra had such a bad first half of the season, I could see him improving his stock a bit. I think Hainline is what he is, he's not going to improve his draft stock.
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Post by easyheat on Jul 13, 2024 20:40:11 GMT -8
Mason had a long, protracted slump in '24 which hurt his stock. He has the potential to be a much better hitter than we saw last season. Having a strong '25 season would remove some doubt about his hit tool.
Hainline regressed some in '24. At WSU in 2023 he slashed .337/.430/ .615 with 12 HRs and a 1:1.75 BB:K Ratio.
At OSU in 2024, he slashed .280/.402/.537 with 11 HRs and a BB:K Ratio of 1:1.54 We saw a 57 point regression in BA, and a drop in OB% and SLG at OSU last season.
I'd like to see him get back to his WSU numbers with more pull power, fewer K's and more consistency in the field. He can do that - potential for "some improvement".
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Post by ricke71 on Jul 14, 2024 7:48:36 GMT -8
Agreed, Kmatz has completed his excellent college career.
It’s curious though that your sources show Kmatz and Guerra basically equivalent (11th - 12th round). Looking strictly at college eligibles, D1 BB ranks Kmatz as 87th best and Guerra as 183rd best. Unless there is a realistic chance that Guerra can cure his swing problems, I tend to agree with Kmatz >>> Guerra.
If Mason is susceptible to failure against typical college pitching, how would he do against AA - AAA - MLB arms?
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Post by irimi on Jul 14, 2024 14:17:37 GMT -8
Mason had a long, protracted slump in '24 which hurt his stock. He has the potential to be a much better hitter than we saw last season. Having a strong '25 season would remove some doubt about his hit tool. Hainline regressed some in '24. At WSU in 2023 he slashed .337/.430/ .615 with 12 HRs and a 1:1.75 BB:K Ratio. At OSU in 2024, he slashed .280/.402/.537 with 11 HRs and a BB:K Ratio of 1:1.54 We saw a 57 point regression in BA, and a drop in OB% and SLG at OSU last season. I'd like to see him get back to his WSU numbers with more pull power, fewer K's and more consistency in the field. He can do that - potential for "some improvement". I know that you might have more insight about this than I do, but even with power hitters, we struggle at the plate. Something about our coaching (or what the coaches are trying to accomplish), in my opinion gets the batters to be too much in their heads. Hainline's numbers and Guerra's struggles may point to this.
But who knows? There are a hundred other reasons that could account for the hitting that we've seen. In the end, it's up to the player to figure out what's his next best step. I feel that they both could take the money and start playing ball for a living.
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Post by rgeorge on Jul 14, 2024 14:32:14 GMT -8
Mason had a long, protracted slump in '24 which hurt his stock. He has the potential to be a much better hitter than we saw last season. Having a strong '25 season would remove some doubt about his hit tool. Hainline regressed some in '24. At WSU in 2023 he slashed .337/.430/ .615 with 12 HRs and a 1:1.75 BB:K Ratio. At OSU in 2024, he slashed .280/.402/.537 with 11 HRs and a BB:K Ratio of 1:1.54 We saw a 57 point regression in BA, and a drop in OB% and SLG at OSU last season. I'd like to see him get back to his WSU numbers with more pull power, fewer K's and more consistency in the field. He can do that - potential for "some improvement". I know that you might have more insight about this than I do, but even with power hitters, we struggle at the plate. Something about our coaching (or what the coaches are trying to accomplish), in my opinion gets the batters to be too much in their heads. Hainline's numbers and Guerra's struggles may point to this.
But who knows? There are a hundred other reasons that could account for the hitting that we've seen. In the end, it's up to the player to figure out what's his next best step. I feel that they both could take the money and start playing ball for a living.
And both lose leverage in the next draft as players with zero eligibility left. I don't see either improving enough to drastically improve their draft status. Unless undrafted both would benefit from beginning their careers. And, even then Guerra is still probably not going to make a significant leap. Make some $ and become part of a team's developmental system. |
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Post by easyheat on Jul 14, 2024 22:09:00 GMT -8
I would opine that Guerra wuld benefit from one more year of college competition. Things like sharpening his approach to hitting, consistency, eliminate any "chasing" out of the zone, getting fooled, and refining and establishing his position skill. Mason has size, power, and some athleticism but could be better prepared to play Pro ball with another year at OSU.
As far as leverage goes, late round college draft picks have very little leverage their Junior year anyway, when there are another 200 pro prospects out there waiting to be drafted. Teams are not inclined to do much negotiating at that point - they move on.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 14, 2024 22:56:50 GMT -8
Mason had a long, protracted slump in '24 which hurt his stock. He has the potential to be a much better hitter than we saw last season. Having a strong '25 season would remove some doubt about his hit tool. Hainline regressed some in '24. At WSU in 2023 he slashed .337/.430/ .615 with 12 HRs and a 1:1.75 BB:K Ratio. At OSU in 2024, he slashed .280/.402/.537 with 11 HRs and a BB:K Ratio of 1:1.54 We saw a 57 point regression in BA, and a drop in OB% and SLG at OSU last season. I'd like to see him get back to his WSU numbers with more pull power, fewer K's and more consistency in the field. He can do that - potential for "some improvement". I know that you might have more insight about this than I do, but even with power hitters, we struggle at the plate. Something about our coaching (or what the coaches are trying to accomplish), in my opinion gets the batters to be too much in their heads. Hainline's numbers and Guerra's struggles may point to this.
But who knows? There are a hundred other reasons that could account for the hitting that we've seen. In the end, it's up to the player to figure out what's his next best step. I feel that they both could take the money and start playing ball for a living.
Struggle how? OPS: 1. Austin Peay 1.116 2. Georgia 1.022 3. Tennessee 1.020 4. Virginia .992 5. Morehead St. .987 6. Oregon State .971 Sixth-best OPS in the country struggling? Murderers' Row, the greatest-hitting team of the last 125 years had an OPS of .872. That is not struggling, my boy. The issue is that Oregon State is not generating runs at that level. 6th in OPS. 23rd in runs/game. The guys have a great approach at the plate and get on base. But they do not score. And despite the foregoing, scoring differential: 1. Tennessee
2. Texas A&M
3. Wofford
4. Oregon State
Despite only scoring the 23rd most runs/game, Oregon State still averaged winning by almost four runs/game every outing.
The true issue? It starts with just rotten luck. Oregon State generated the 47th fewest opponent errors of any team in baseball. 258 Division 1 baseball teams had opponents commit more errors. That is also to say that it seems like the Beavs got a lot of their opponents at their best.
Also, one-run games. 5-10 in one-run games. To really have a prayer to win a National Championship, that number should be at least 60%. Flip pretty much any one-run loss, though, and the season stands a much higher probability of turning out much better.
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Post by rgeorge on Jul 14, 2024 23:41:43 GMT -8
Lol... you don't generate opponent errors when you fail to put the ball in play over 28% of your official ABs.
That's not bad luck. It's simply a poor hitting approach. Not only are there no chances for opponent errors, OSU was poor at moving runners and n situational hitting.
They basically played a season getting only 17-18 outs to score per game. Some teams can overcome some lower BAs spread thru a lineup when players actually put the ball in play. OSU couldn't as those guys were giving up "free" outs.
OSU had a good season. Maybe better than some stats would show. Others would say they were right on. But, bad luck wasn't it.
Of course, if that's the premise one goes with... it goes both ways and you can analyze the "what if's" forever. But, the reality is what actually happened. This team wasn't an Omaha team.
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Post by ricke71 on Jul 16, 2024 11:12:20 GMT -8
Draft nearly finished with Round 14 (#427) and no Mason Guerra so far.....
(update): and there he is at # 431 !!
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 16, 2024 13:30:32 GMT -8
Lol... you don't generate opponent errors when you fail to put the ball in play over 28% of your official ABs. That's not bad luck. It's simply a poor hitting approach. Not only are there no chances for opponent errors, OSU was poor at moving runners and n situational hitting. They basically played a season getting only 17-18 outs to score per game. Some teams can overcome some lower BAs spread thru a lineup when players actually put the ball in play. OSU couldn't as those guys were giving up "free" outs. OSU had a good season. Maybe better than some stats would show. Others would say they were right on. But, bad luck wasn't it. Of course, if that's the premise one goes with... it goes both ways and you can analyze the "what if's" forever. But, the reality is what actually happened. This team wasn't an Omaha team. What in holy hell? Lol! 2024 Oregon State was the greatest offensive team in Oregon State history. 518 runs in 61 games! 11% more runs per game than the previous greatest offensive team in Oregon State history, 2018. 0.87 runs/game more than 2018. You are trying to take me down a rabbit hole into strikeouts. Strikeouts are irrelevant, if runs are being scored. And they were. Runs are the primary statistic. They might not be the prettiest runs, but Oregon State generated more offense than was required to get to Omaha. 0.87 runs/game more than 2018. More prolific than the most prolific offense in Oregon State history. This was an Omaha-caliber offense. The issue was defense and pitching. Allowed 1.02 more runs/game more than 2018. 0.80 more earned runs/game and 0.22 more unearned runs/game. Also, to put more paint to it, 2017 Oregon State got to Omaha scoring 2.47 runs per game fewer than 2024. 2013 Oregon State scored 2.77 runs per game fewer than 2024 Oregon State. 2007 Oregon State scored 1.78 runs per game fewer than 2024 Oregon State. 2006 Oregon State scored 1.47 runs per game fewer than 2024 Oregon State. 2005 Oregon State scored 1.21 runs per game fewer than 2024 Oregon State. |
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Post by rgeorge on Jul 16, 2024 16:12:27 GMT -8
Runs per game are irrelevant when looked at singularly.
Not going into a lengthy diatribe, but how can a team go to a CWS scoring 2.5 runs per less??
For one the simple reason such comparisons are moot. Different teams, opponents, etc. Then taken into account... pitching staff, errors, etc. One team needed all they could get and it still wasn't Omaha worthy.
Runs scored... not all runs scored or opportunities wasted are the same. The plethora of runs scored vs inferior NC competition looked great. But, all the while the same issue existed... this team struck out too much. From Surprise on it was a key flaw never "fixed". Runs scored as a isolated stat means little. It doesn't take into account situational hitting where run scoring opportunities were wasted. K's are irrelevant if runs are being scored? 😆
Do those count all the key runs not scored because or multiple innings with multiple Ks? Or was that just bad luck?
I guess a lot of high scoring teams had a bunch of bad luck... Woffard, Austin Peay, N Kentucky, Irvine, Coastal Carolina.
Plus in looking before the CWS only two teams had more Ks than runs scored... FL by a ton, but the last part of the season it was reversed... and TAM. OSU was (-58). Do you think a few less than the (25) Ks vs UK could have at least extended it to a 3rd game? Or bad luck?
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Post by ricke71 on Jul 16, 2024 16:26:35 GMT -8
If you believe all of the Mock Drafts and Draft Rankings published by a host of college baseball websites and writers, the Beavs are looking at 5 or possibly 6 players being drafted tomorrow. The projections are consistently showing only Bazzana and May being taken in the early rounds with Travis going 1 or 2 in the first round and Aiden going late 3rd round or early 4th. Both will surely sign and begin their Pro careers. Guerra projects late 11th round or 12th with no slot value. Kmatz projects 12th round and Kasper is showing up in the 15th or 16th round. Hainline appears in one Mock late in the draft but is absent in the others. With no slot designated for their draft position, we have 4 players that are looking at the obligatory $75-150k signing bonus or hoping to negotiate something better. The decision then becomes a choice of two options. Kasper is out of eligibility and would sign. For the other three, they have an option - they can sign for an amount they can negotiate, then spend a year in a Complex League or Low-A. or they can return to OSU, Is it possible one or more of the four return for their Senior season, improve their skills and elevate their draft position in the 2025 draft? To my thinking, with nothing left to prove, Kmatz is finished with college ball, but Guerra and Hainline would benefit substantially from another year of college baseball and the additional national exposure. Back to the initial question: undrafted AND with eligibility left: Wilson Weber and Jabin Trosky. Maybe I missed someone? |
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Post by joecool on Jul 16, 2024 16:33:40 GMT -8
Back to the initial question: undrafted AND with eligibility left: Wilson Weber and Jabin Trosky. Maybe I missed someone? I read somewhere that Joey Mundt actually has another year left. Found it...from Oregonlive. And if you thought you had seen the last of Joey Mundt, well, don’t write his departure down in ink. The veteran right-hander will take the next step in his career if he’s drafted or a free agent opportunity arrives with a professional club. But if not, the player who has been around longer than Canham actually has one year of eligibility remaining because of COVID and medical redshirts. |
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Post by beaverboilermaker on Jul 16, 2024 17:39:42 GMT -8
Back to the initial question: undrafted AND with eligibility left: Wilson Weber and Jabin Trosky. Maybe I missed someone? I read somewhere that Joey Mundt actually has another year left. Found it...from Oregonlive. And if you thought you had seen the last of Joey Mundt, well, don’t write his departure down in ink. The veteran right-hander will take the next step in his career if he’s drafted or a free agent opportunity arrives with a professional club. But if not, the player who has been around longer than Canham actually has one year of eligibility remaining because of COVID and medical redshirts. ”Double-Redshirt-Super-Senior”? |
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