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Post by 86BEAVER on May 26, 2024 19:17:06 GMT -8
Since we have no shot at getting a top-8 seed, if we win our Regional we play the winner of the bracket opposite ours.
IF SOMEONE OTHER THAN THAT REGIONAL'S #1 SEED WINS THE BRACKET, would we then host?
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Post by jefframp on May 26, 2024 19:22:47 GMT -8
YES
Edit: Unless we lose our Regional or our stadium is condemned or yada, yada, yada. But odds would be good that we host the Super Regionals.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 26, 2024 19:48:27 GMT -8
Since we have no shot at getting a top-8 seed, if we win our Regional we play the winner of the bracket opposite ours. IF SOMEONE OTHER THAN THAT REGIONAL'S #1 SEED WINS THE BRACKET, would we then host? With some weird exceptions, which should not apply, yes. If any team other than the #1 team in the bracket paired with ours wins, Oregon State would host the Super Regional. |
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Post by 56chevy on May 26, 2024 19:55:52 GMT -8
Based on win % of National seeds over a number of years, I'd say it's about a 50-50 proposition. The odds of 9-16 as regional hosts advancing is something less than that, probably in the 40 percent range. None of that takes into account the magic of Goss Stadium.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 26, 2024 23:46:45 GMT -8
Based on win % of National seeds over a number of years, I'd say it's about a 50-50 proposition. The odds of 9-16 as regional hosts advancing is something less than that, probably in the 40 percent range. None of that takes into account the magic of Goss Stadium. How top eight seeds have done in their own regionals: 2005 All 8 top 8 seeds won their regional. 5 of the 8 top 8 seeds won their Super Regional. Everyone in Omaha was a regional host.
2006 6 of 8 top 8 seeds won their regional. 5 of the 6 top 8 seeds won their Super Regional. Only Nebraska and Texas lost, which opened the door for both Miami and Oregon State. North Carolina won their regional and then upset Alabama. Miami was not a regional host.
2007 3 top 8 seeds won their regional. All 3 won their Super Regionals. Wichita State was the only other regional host to host a Super Regional. Irvine then upset Wichita State. Three national seeds, three two-seeds, and two three-seeds in Omaha.
2008 All 8 top 8 seeds won their regional. 6 of the 8 top 8 seeds won their Super Regional. Stanford won their regional and then upset Fullerton. Fresno won the Long Beach Regional and the Tempe Super Regional.
2009 6 top 8 seeds won their regional. 5 of those 6 won their Super Regional with only Florida losing to Southern Miss. All eight Super Regionals were hosted by regional hosts with Florida State and Ole Miss filling in for Irvine and Oklahoma.
2010 6 top 8 seeds won their regional. 3 of those 6 won their Super Regional. The 3 others lost to the hosts of the other regional. Florida State won its regional and hosted the super after Louisville went down. The other Super Regional was between two two-seeds.
2011 7 top 8 seeds won their regional. 6 of those 7 won their Super Regional with only Florida State losing to Texas A&M. Texas A&M had earlier won their regional. The eighth Super Regional was between two three-seeds, Cal and Dallas Baptist.
2012 7 top 8 seeds won their regional. 4 of those 7 won their Super Regional. Arizona hosted and won the Tucson Regional. North Carolina was upset by St. John's, so Arizona hosted a Super Regional. Arizona beat St. John's twice and won the next five to win the Championship.
2013 7 top 8 seeds won their regional. 3 of those 7 won their Super Regional. Indiana, Louisville, Mississippi State, and UCLA each won their regional and then upset the top 8 seed. NC State won their regional and hosted the Super Regional after Oregon lost to Rice.
2014 3 top 8 seeds won their regional. Ole Miss won the Oxford Regional and then upset #6 Louisiana-Lafayette. 3 other regional hosts hosted Super Regionals. The other two regionals were hosted by two-seeds. Four 9-16 regional hosts played in Omaha, including Vandy.
2015 7 top 8 seeds won their regional. Only 6 of the 7 hosted Super Regionals, because Missouri State had a conflict. 4 of the 6 won their Super Regionals. Fullerton and Vandy were regional hosts to upset top 8 seeds. The other three teams in Supers were not regional hosts.
2016 7 top 8 seeds won their regional. 3 of those 7 won their Super Regional. TCU won their regional and then upset Texas A&M. The other 3 top 8 seeds were upset by 3 two-seeds. South Carolina hosted a regional as a non-top-8 seed and then hosted a Super Regional.
2017 5 top 8 seeds won their regional. All 5 surviving top 8 seeds won their Super Regional. Florida State and Long Beach State also each hosted a Super Regional after hosting their regional. The eighth Super Regional was between 3- and 4-seeds. Florida State won their Super.
2018 4 top 8 seeds won their regional. All 4 surviving top 8 seeds won their Super Regional. Texas and Texas Tech also hosted Super Regionals after hosting regionals. The other two Super Regionals were between 2- and 3-seeds. All six regional hosts won their Supers.
2019 6 top 8 seeds won their regional. 5 of those 6 won their Super Regional with Michigan upsetting UCLA. #13 LSU and #14 North Carolina won their regionals and then hosted a Super Regional. Both were upset by lower seeds.
2021 7 top 8 seeds won their regional. 5 of those 7 won their Super Regional. #9 Stanford upset #8 Texas Tech. Two-seed NC State upset #1 Arkansas. #6 TCU was defeated by Dallas Baptist and eliminated by Oregon State. The Super Regional involved two three-seeds.
2022 6 top 8 seeds won their regional. 2 of those 6 won their Super Regional. #9 Texas upset #8 East Carolina, and #14 Auburn upset #3 Oregon State. #1 Tennessee and #4 Virginia Tech were upset by two-seeds. #10 North Carolina and #11 Southern Miss hosted Supers.
2023 5 top 8 seeds won their regional. All 5 surviving top 8 seeds won their Super Regional. #14 Indiana State would have hosted but could not because of issues related to the Special Olympics Indiana Summer Games. All of the other three non-top 8 Super Regionals were hosted by two-seeds.
In the past 20 seasons (18 Tournaments), exactly 75% of top 8 seeds won their regional. In that time, there was one weird scenario, when a top 8 seed could not host. In the past 18 Tournaments only 37 opportunities have existed for a non-top 8 team to host, approximately 25.61% of the time. Oregon State has taken complete advantage of those situations twice (2006 and 2007). Oregon State lost to create that situation once (2014). Oregon State also won to create that situation once (2021) but failed to take advantage of that situation by blowing a five-run lead.
In the 37 times that a top-8 seed lost their regional, the other regional hosted 19 times. A regional host should have hosted a 20th time but for the Special Olympics Indiana Summer Games. 2006 Oregon State was one of the 19 non-top-8 seed regional hosts to host a Super Regional, and 2007 Oregon State was one of the 18 teams that was not a regional host to host a Super Regional.
70.09% of top 8 seeds, which host a Super Regional, won that Super Regional. 32 top 8 seeds did not win their Super Regional. 20 of those instances involved the other regional host upsetting the top 8 seed. One of those 20 instances was Auburn in 2022.
27.08% of #9-#16 seeds have played in Omaha over the past 20 seasons. That compares poorly with the 52.08% of top-8 seeds. But that is obviously better than the 20.83% of teams that did not host a regional.
And that includes any Goss Stadium magic............so far. |
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Post by jefframp on May 27, 2024 9:02:14 GMT -8
Since we have no shot at getting a top-8 seed, if we win our Regional we play the winner of the bracket opposite ours. IF SOMEONE OTHER THAN THAT REGIONAL'S #1 SEED WINS THE BRACKET, would we then host? Go Indiana State! Or Illinois! Or Western Michigan! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 27, 2024 18:51:10 GMT -8
Since we have no shot at getting a top-8 seed, if we win our Regional we play the winner of the bracket opposite ours. IF SOMEONE OTHER THAN THAT REGIONAL'S #1 SEED WINS THE BRACKET, would we then host? Go Indiana State! Or Illinois! Or Western Michigan! Western Michigan would probably be best. Then Indiana State. Illinois would be a tough matchup. Two of the three times that Oregon State won the National Championship, the Beavs beat the Big Ten Regular Season Champion in the Corvallis Super Regional. |
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