Post by chinmusic on May 24, 2024 13:46:56 GMT -8
The endless RPI analysis has made me dizzy - let's look at the really big picture ahead.
With recent changes and more coming from the NCAA, Oregon State and the University's Athletic Department face some difficult challenges ahead. Obviously, navigating those will go a long way in determining the future success of OSU Baseball. The NCAA has grown weary of continuing class action legal battles (House, Alston, O'Bannon, Hubbard, Carter. Fontenot, etc.), and the subsequent losses in court. In the pending antitrust case of House v NCAA, a large settlement (estimated $2.77 Billion has been negotiated to avoid the court where a loss for the NCAA would have resulted in treble damages totaling $20 billion and bankruptcy for the NCAA. In response to the continuing litigation over compensating athletes, the NCAA is transitioning from an organization that has restricted college athletes from earning outside income beyond their scholarships, to one that is allowing athletes to earn unlimited outside income from NIL. Some writers suggest the NCAA's new direction (a changing vibe) is a first step in leading to a Super Conference, revenue sharing with the athletes (22% of all Media revenues), and making them employees of the University. Bigger programs will stratify into a single Super Conference which will lead to Sub Divisions for everyone else which would affect all sports across the board.
Looking ahead, and not without some concern, I see Oregon State's challenges/opportunities in these four important areas.
1) OSU Baseball is currently without a conference or conference affiliation. They have chosen to play an independent schedule which should dictate playing stronger competition in Surprise, and continuing to play top teams in Texas or other competitive tournament venues in late February and early March. OSU is faced with RPI hunting in the pre-season games prior to conference play beginning when scheduling quality opponents will be easier - scheduling D1 teams during their conference season means playing during their bye weekends. Elite teams may not wish to play OSU in their off week when they can schedule weaker teams, and they may not have any interest in traveling across the country to a chilly, rainy March or April weekend in Corvallis. Because of geographic proximity I also think former PAC-12 competitors will be easier to schedule for a weekend series or mid-week game than other Power- 4 teams. As an independent program, scheduling could be very challenging for Scott Barnes and Mitch Canham. Maybe moving away from the RPI influence in tournament selection might ease the burden of scheduling for OSU.
2) OSU's baseball Collective is focused on disbursing modest $$$ to current roster players within the program, while there are allegations of programs like LSU, Florida and Tennessee using big NIL money to recruit preps and Portal transfers. The NIL playing field isn't level and OSU and others are relatively disadvantaged without NCAA rules and restrictions governing NIL limits and application. In the "wild, wild west" environment that currently exists, the big money programs enjoy a huge advantage in compensating athletes. We are seeing college coaches sharing their experience of NIL arrangements being made for quarterbacks at $1.5 Mil and more. Basketball coaches openly saying that a good PG will cost you at least $800k. For some it is a means to compensate athletes for use of their NIL as intended, for others it is a powerful recruiting tool. We witnessed that last year in college baseball with most teams filling a position or two of need while others constructed an entire roster with All Star level transfers. Even more concerning is the NCAA's ongoing discussion over allowing College Athletic Departments bring their Collectives in-house.
3) The Transfer Portal has created roster uncertainty for college teams in general. Over 1,600 athletes entered the Portal following last season. The NCAA is currently working on a proposal that takes the Portal from some uncertainty to total uncertainty or perhaps even chaos. The new NCAA Rule will allow players to transfer as often as they wish with immediate eligibility and no penalty. A letter of intent now becomes a one-year commitment. I can't even begin to process the overall effect of that one.
4) The NCAA is currently working with the ABCA to reduce the roster limit from the Covid era of 40, with 32 being the favored number of the ABCA. In addition, schools would now be allowed to offer full scholarships for every slot on the roster. If OSU decided to carry 32 players on their active roster, they could offer 32 "full rides' to their athletes (room, board, books, tuition and a monthly stipend). The "Equivalency Clause" allowing partial scholarships to minor sports is being legally challenged and Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s (SCOTUS) recent paper on that issue have signaled the NCAA to change it or have it upended in court by replacing it with full scholarships. In competing for premier baseball recruits, an offer of a full scholarship will be the new norm. A major concern is that schools with well-heeled Athletic Departments will fund 32 full scholarships while many others may not have the financial means to do so. Then the issue of "hoarding" comes into play. In the 1960's USC football had 140 players on scholarship, - 100 for them and 40 more they didn't want UCLA or Washington to get. That is a clear picture of “hoarding”.
A lot to think about here but one thing is certain, college baseball is rapidly changing. The college business model is undergoing an onslaught of new rules. The NCAA spin is these changes will offer clarity to member schools and conferences. According to the NCAA, “it will provide “a measure of predictability and visibility” for college programs. I am most concerned with the changes that will affect college baseball. I am struggling with this “clarity: thing – In the near term, the possibility of total upheaval, more confusion and a chaotic environment that may take years to sort out. The notion of a college athletes’ union engaged in collective bargaining with the University, going out on strike and cancelling a season, isn’t something I hope to see.
With recent changes and more coming from the NCAA, Oregon State and the University's Athletic Department face some difficult challenges ahead. Obviously, navigating those will go a long way in determining the future success of OSU Baseball. The NCAA has grown weary of continuing class action legal battles (House, Alston, O'Bannon, Hubbard, Carter. Fontenot, etc.), and the subsequent losses in court. In the pending antitrust case of House v NCAA, a large settlement (estimated $2.77 Billion has been negotiated to avoid the court where a loss for the NCAA would have resulted in treble damages totaling $20 billion and bankruptcy for the NCAA. In response to the continuing litigation over compensating athletes, the NCAA is transitioning from an organization that has restricted college athletes from earning outside income beyond their scholarships, to one that is allowing athletes to earn unlimited outside income from NIL. Some writers suggest the NCAA's new direction (a changing vibe) is a first step in leading to a Super Conference, revenue sharing with the athletes (22% of all Media revenues), and making them employees of the University. Bigger programs will stratify into a single Super Conference which will lead to Sub Divisions for everyone else which would affect all sports across the board.
Looking ahead, and not without some concern, I see Oregon State's challenges/opportunities in these four important areas.
1) OSU Baseball is currently without a conference or conference affiliation. They have chosen to play an independent schedule which should dictate playing stronger competition in Surprise, and continuing to play top teams in Texas or other competitive tournament venues in late February and early March. OSU is faced with RPI hunting in the pre-season games prior to conference play beginning when scheduling quality opponents will be easier - scheduling D1 teams during their conference season means playing during their bye weekends. Elite teams may not wish to play OSU in their off week when they can schedule weaker teams, and they may not have any interest in traveling across the country to a chilly, rainy March or April weekend in Corvallis. Because of geographic proximity I also think former PAC-12 competitors will be easier to schedule for a weekend series or mid-week game than other Power- 4 teams. As an independent program, scheduling could be very challenging for Scott Barnes and Mitch Canham. Maybe moving away from the RPI influence in tournament selection might ease the burden of scheduling for OSU.
2) OSU's baseball Collective is focused on disbursing modest $$$ to current roster players within the program, while there are allegations of programs like LSU, Florida and Tennessee using big NIL money to recruit preps and Portal transfers. The NIL playing field isn't level and OSU and others are relatively disadvantaged without NCAA rules and restrictions governing NIL limits and application. In the "wild, wild west" environment that currently exists, the big money programs enjoy a huge advantage in compensating athletes. We are seeing college coaches sharing their experience of NIL arrangements being made for quarterbacks at $1.5 Mil and more. Basketball coaches openly saying that a good PG will cost you at least $800k. For some it is a means to compensate athletes for use of their NIL as intended, for others it is a powerful recruiting tool. We witnessed that last year in college baseball with most teams filling a position or two of need while others constructed an entire roster with All Star level transfers. Even more concerning is the NCAA's ongoing discussion over allowing College Athletic Departments bring their Collectives in-house.
3) The Transfer Portal has created roster uncertainty for college teams in general. Over 1,600 athletes entered the Portal following last season. The NCAA is currently working on a proposal that takes the Portal from some uncertainty to total uncertainty or perhaps even chaos. The new NCAA Rule will allow players to transfer as often as they wish with immediate eligibility and no penalty. A letter of intent now becomes a one-year commitment. I can't even begin to process the overall effect of that one.
4) The NCAA is currently working with the ABCA to reduce the roster limit from the Covid era of 40, with 32 being the favored number of the ABCA. In addition, schools would now be allowed to offer full scholarships for every slot on the roster. If OSU decided to carry 32 players on their active roster, they could offer 32 "full rides' to their athletes (room, board, books, tuition and a monthly stipend). The "Equivalency Clause" allowing partial scholarships to minor sports is being legally challenged and Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s (SCOTUS) recent paper on that issue have signaled the NCAA to change it or have it upended in court by replacing it with full scholarships. In competing for premier baseball recruits, an offer of a full scholarship will be the new norm. A major concern is that schools with well-heeled Athletic Departments will fund 32 full scholarships while many others may not have the financial means to do so. Then the issue of "hoarding" comes into play. In the 1960's USC football had 140 players on scholarship, - 100 for them and 40 more they didn't want UCLA or Washington to get. That is a clear picture of “hoarding”.
A lot to think about here but one thing is certain, college baseball is rapidly changing. The college business model is undergoing an onslaught of new rules. The NCAA spin is these changes will offer clarity to member schools and conferences. According to the NCAA, “it will provide “a measure of predictability and visibility” for college programs. I am most concerned with the changes that will affect college baseball. I am struggling with this “clarity: thing – In the near term, the possibility of total upheaval, more confusion and a chaotic environment that may take years to sort out. The notion of a college athletes’ union engaged in collective bargaining with the University, going out on strike and cancelling a season, isn’t something I hope to see.
