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Post by beavaristotle on May 5, 2024 10:42:26 GMT -8
If we go under wins, it just greases the track for landing in the mountain west from a national perspective
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Post by bvrbred on May 5, 2024 11:20:15 GMT -8
I would take the under. Too much lack of continuity. Big learning curve. I'm concerned the ucks will demolish the Beavs. That's only one loss, though. Who are the other five losses to? Hopefully our defense will be able to carry us through the mid tier MWC schedule even if our offense has growing pains. I see the two toughest MWC games being Air Force and Boise State, both on the road. Elsewhere, Purdue is not the program they were when we played them in 2021. They lost Brohm and went 4-8 last year. Cal and WSU are crapshoots. Cal's defense wasn't very good last year. Sometimes their offense came to lfe. Sometimes it didn't. WSU has lost a lot through the portal (so did we). No idea on the replacements. I think, worst case, we lose to Oregon, AF, BSU, and one of Cal/WSU. That's 8-4. Anything less, playing a MWC schedule, and Beaver Nation is going to be really unhappy.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 5, 2024 11:25:48 GMT -8
That's only one loss, though. Who are the other five losses to? Hopefully our defense will be able to carry us through the mid tier MWC schedule even if our offense has growing pains. I see the two toughest MWC games being Air Force and Boise State, both on the road. Elsewhere, Purdue is not the program they were when we played them in 2021. They lost Brohm and went 4-8 last year. Cal and WSU are crapshoots. Cal's defense wasn't very good last year. Sometimes their offense came to lfe. Sometimes it didn't. WSU has lost a lot through the portal (so did we). No idea on the replacements. I think, worst case, we lose to Oregon, AF, BSU, and one of Cal/WSU. That's 8-4. Anything less, playing a MWC schedule, and Beaver Nation is going to be really unhappy. I agree with this. Anything less than 8-4 against this schedule next year is nearly catastrophic, given how precarious everything else is.
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Post by fridaynightlights on May 5, 2024 11:39:20 GMT -8
As someone else mentioned imo with so much player turnover and a first-year head coach this coming season is harder to predict than any I can remember. If we win at SDSU and are competitive against Oregon I think we can win 8 or 9 games, if we lose to the Aztecs and are not competitive against Oregon it could be a long season.
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Post by beaverintheberg on May 5, 2024 11:54:45 GMT -8
I would take the under. Too much lack of continuity. Big learning curve. I'm concerned the ucks will demolish the Beavs. That's only one loss, though. Who are the other five losses to? Everyone except Idaho State is scary. Maybe not San Jose with the loss of Brennan.
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Post by grayman on May 5, 2024 12:28:16 GMT -8
The program won 18 games in the last two seasons. Even though there were roster losses due to Smith's defection to MSU and through exhausted eligibility and the portal, there remains a foundation of younger players and backups who have experienced a pretty decent level of winning at OSU. That is, they know how and what it takes to win. That, combined with what I see as an almost stunning success in the portal by Bray and his staff, leads me to believe that the drop off won't be nearly as significant as it could have been. You combine that with a very MWC-heavy schedule and it's hard to think the Beavers are going to struggle all that much. It's not as if every game is going to be a cakewalk. As mentioned, Boise State and AF on the road are both going to be tough. But I've watched a lot of MWC and G5 games and seen some in person. The difference between Oregon State and most of those teams is significant.
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Post by Judge Smails on May 5, 2024 12:32:46 GMT -8
The program won 18 games in the last two seasons. Even though there were roster losses due to Smith's defection to MSU and through exhausted eligibility and the portal, there remains a foundation of younger players and backups who have experienced a pretty decent level of winning at OSU. That is, they know how and what it takes to win. That, combined with what I see as an almost stunning success in the portal by Bray and his staff, leads me to believe that the drop off won't be nearly as significant as it could have been. You combine that with a very MWC-heavy schedule and it's hard to think the Beavers are going to struggle all that much. It's not as if every game is going to be a cakewalk. As mentioned, Boise State and AF on the road are both going to be tough. But I've watched a lot of MWC and G5 games and seen some in person. The difference between Oregon State and most of those teams is significant. I’ll just say that the OL and DL reports from spring ball were not good. And how many games we won the last 2 years under a different staff with different players means zip.
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Post by grayman on May 5, 2024 13:04:17 GMT -8
The program won 18 games in the last two seasons. Even though there were roster losses due to Smith's defection to MSU and through exhausted eligibility and the portal, there remains a foundation of younger players and backups who have experienced a pretty decent level of winning at OSU. That is, they know how and what it takes to win. That, combined with what I see as an almost stunning success in the portal by Bray and his staff, leads me to believe that the drop off won't be nearly as significant as it could have been. You combine that with a very MWC-heavy schedule and it's hard to think the Beavers are going to struggle all that much. It's not as if every game is going to be a cakewalk. As mentioned, Boise State and AF on the road are both going to be tough. But I've watched a lot of MWC and G5 games and seen some in person. The difference between Oregon State and most of those teams is significant. I’ll just say that the OL and DL reports from spring ball were not good. And how many games we won the last 2 years under a different staff with different players means zip. I didn't read or hear anything that was overly negative about either lines (except the Bill Oram column and some other spring game reports on the OL). The DL looks good to me and Tygee Hill alone looks like an impact guy right away. I think it's very likely the DL has actually gotten an upgrade. If you saw my earlier post on the thread, yeah, the OL needs some tackles to step up. The interior is good. Gray will be a strong addition at guard (assuming they go ahead and move him inside). Wells is a pretty good addition at center. Totally disagree about players being a part of a winning program. It absolutely trickles down. And it doesn't matter that Bray and the staff are technically new. The defense won't miss a stride because Bray is still here and can work with Keith Heyward (if that's even necessary, which I doubt). The offense will no doubt take more time to get going but the change actually fits the personnel they already had coming back. A power run game without Fuaga and Bloomfield (and Martinez) just isn't going to work nearly as well as the direction they are taking.
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Post by Judge Smails on May 5, 2024 13:10:46 GMT -8
I’ll just say that the OL and DL reports from spring ball were not good. And how many games we won the last 2 years under a different staff with different players means zip. I didn't read or hear anything that was overly negative about either lines (except the Bill Oram column and some other spring game reports on the OL). The DL looks good to me and Tygee Hill alone looks like an impact guy right away. I think it's very likely the DL has actually gotten an upgrade. If you saw my earlier post on the thread, yeah, the OL needs some tackles to step up. The interior is good. Gray will be a strong addition at guard (assuming they go ahead and move him inside). Wells is a pretty good addition at center. Totally disagree about players being a part of a winning program. It absolutely trickles down. And it doesn't matter that Bray and the staff are technically new. The defense won't miss a stride because Bray is still here and can work with Keith Heyward (if that's even necessary, which I doubt). The offense will no doubt take more time to get going but the change actually fits the personnel they already had coming back. A power run game without Fuaga and Bloomfield (and Martinez) just isn't going to work nearly as well as the direction they are taking. You can believe whatever you want. I will just say that the coaches are concerned about both lines.
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Post by grayman on May 5, 2024 13:15:39 GMT -8
I didn't read or hear anything that was overly negative about either lines (except the Bill Oram column and some other spring game reports on the OL). The DL looks good to me and Tygee Hill alone looks like an impact guy right away. I think it's very likely the DL has actually gotten an upgrade. If you saw my earlier post on the thread, yeah, the OL needs some tackles to step up. The interior is good. Gray will be a strong addition at guard (assuming they go ahead and move him inside). Wells is a pretty good addition at center. Totally disagree about players being a part of a winning program. It absolutely trickles down. And it doesn't matter that Bray and the staff are technically new. The defense won't miss a stride because Bray is still here and can work with Keith Heyward (if that's even necessary, which I doubt). The offense will no doubt take more time to get going but the change actually fits the personnel they already had coming back. A power run game without Fuaga and Bloomfield (and Martinez) just isn't going to work nearly as well as the direction they are taking. You can believe whatever you want. I will just say that the coaches are concerned about both lines. I believe that if they are truly concerned about both lines they certainly aren't telling you.
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Post by Judge Smails on May 5, 2024 13:27:06 GMT -8
You can believe whatever you want. I will just say that the coaches are concerned about both lines. I believe that if they are truly concerned about both lines they certainly aren't telling you. Whatever.
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Post by lebaneaver on May 5, 2024 16:37:46 GMT -8
How can the coaches NOT BE concerned? It’s their JOB to be concerned.
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Post by ee1990 on May 5, 2024 17:36:05 GMT -8
Seems pretty reasonable.
Idaho State W @ SDSU was 4-8(2-6) last year. W Purdue started 2-7 and finished 4-8. We play them at Reser. W CSU was 5-7(3-5), winning 2 of their final 3 like Purdue. W @ UNR was 2-10(2-6). W SJSU was 7-6(6-2) and we walloped them at their place(I know I know, so much change). W
Hard to fathom losing to these bottom of the barrel MWC teams, especially at home.
Hole L UNLV was 9-5(6-2). I'll put an L here just to be conservative. I bet we beat them tho. @ AFA was 9-4 (5-3)last year. On the road, call it an L. /shrug @ BSU was 8-6(6-2) and we play them in Boise. Call it an L. @ CAL We beat them last year in Berkeley and have to play there again. Toss-up given how much we've lost? WSU beat us by 3 in Pullman last year. Call it another toss-up.
Win 1 toss-up that's 7. Win both that's 8. Beat UNLV, that's 9. I think 8 should be the expectation. I bet we're more likely to win 10 than 5-6.
Last year's team is 12-0 against this schedule.
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Post by orangeattack on May 6, 2024 12:11:47 GMT -8
The program won 18 games in the last two seasons. Even though there were roster losses due to Smith's defection to MSU and through exhausted eligibility and the portal, there remains a foundation of younger players and backups who have experienced a pretty decent level of winning at OSU. That is, they know how and what it takes to win. That, combined with what I see as an almost stunning success in the portal by Bray and his staff, leads me to believe that the drop off won't be nearly as significant as it could have been. You combine that with a very MWC-heavy schedule and it's hard to think the Beavers are going to struggle all that much. It's not as if every game is going to be a cakewalk. As mentioned, Boise State and AF on the road are both going to be tough. But I've watched a lot of MWC and G5 games and seen some in person. The difference between Oregon State and most of those teams is significant. Boise State had coaching turnover last season as well, FWIW. Andy Avalos was fired last November, Spencer Danielson was named interim HC and the team performed well for him and BSU made it permanent. They've had significant players hit the portal as well. It seems like nothing is predictable at all right now.
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Post by grayman on May 6, 2024 12:22:04 GMT -8
The program won 18 games in the last two seasons. Even though there were roster losses due to Smith's defection to MSU and through exhausted eligibility and the portal, there remains a foundation of younger players and backups who have experienced a pretty decent level of winning at OSU. That is, they know how and what it takes to win. That, combined with what I see as an almost stunning success in the portal by Bray and his staff, leads me to believe that the drop off won't be nearly as significant as it could have been. You combine that with a very MWC-heavy schedule and it's hard to think the Beavers are going to struggle all that much. It's not as if every game is going to be a cakewalk. As mentioned, Boise State and AF on the road are both going to be tough. But I've watched a lot of MWC and G5 games and seen some in person. The difference between Oregon State and most of those teams is significant. Boise State had coaching turnover last season as well, FWIW. Andy Avalos was fired last November, Spencer Danielson was named interim HC and the team performed well for him and BSU made it permanent. They've had significant players hit the portal as well. It seems like nothing is predictable at all right now. Sure. Boise State also landed some good players in the portal as well and QB Malachi Nelson was a huge get. Other than a win over Oregon, a win at BSU would right up there IMO.
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