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Post by easyheat on May 2, 2024 12:58:22 GMT -8
From Kendall Rogers and crew:
D1 Baseball: Top Eight National Seeds
SECURE TEAMS: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Clemson, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): East Carolina
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Oregon State
"Oregon State feels like the most likely candidate to jump into the top eight, now that the Beavers won a crucial series against Oregon and remained within 1.5 games of conference-leading Utah and Arizona. OSU is No. 12 in the RPI and has no way to reach the top eight, per the RPI Needs Report, but winning eight or nine of its final 11 will keep it in the top 16 heading into the conference tournament. If Oregon State can win the Pac-12 regular-season title, that could offset an RPI in the teens, because the Pac still has cachet that the AAC (for example) lacks, even in a down year for the Pac. But for now, ECU feels like a better bet."
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 2, 2024 16:41:41 GMT -8
From Kendall Rogers and crew:
D1 Baseball: Top Eight National Seeds
SECURE TEAMS: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Clemson, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida State ON THE BUBBLE (IN): East Carolina ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Oregon State
"Oregon State feels like the most likely candidate to jump into the top eight, now that the Beavers won a crucial series against Oregon and remained within 1.5 games of conference-leading Utah and Arizona. OSU is No. 12 in the RPI and has no way to reach the top eight, per the RPI Needs Report, but winning eight or nine of its final 11 will keep it in the top 16 heading into the conference tournament. If Oregon State can win the Pac-12 regular-season title, that could offset an RPI in the teens, because the Pac still has cachet that the AAC (for example) lacks, even in a down year for the Pac. But for now, ECU feels like a better bet." They are looking at an earlier Needs Report. Oregon State lost to Oregon. I want to say that Oregon State's opponents and opponents' opponents came through, so it is looking like winning seven or eight of the final 10 will keep Oregon State in the top 16. The last nine conference games are all going to be biggies. Oregon State needs to rough up Wazzu and UCLA, because Arizona in Tucson might be rough. It is good to see that Oregon State is still ahead in front of Georgia, Indiana State, and South Carolina in pecking order despite having a worse RPI. East Carolina has to win all 11 remaining games to maintain their RPI. The Vols have to go at least 8-3 to maintain their RPI. North Carolina must go at least 6-3. Florida State must go at least 8-4. Clemson must go at least 7-4. Kentucky would have to go worse than 5-6 for Oregon State to be able to realistically catch them. Arkansas would have to go worse than 3-7 for Oregon State to be able to realistically catch them. Texas A&M would have to go worse than 2-8 for Oregon State to realistically be able to catch them. I would note that Tennessee plays Florida in Gainesville today, tomorrow, and Saturday (I want to say for TV), so, in case you want to cheer someone on, you can cheer on Florida tonight to hopefully makes a top eight seed for Oregon State an easier row to hoe. |
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Post by ricke71 on May 3, 2024 7:03:16 GMT -8
" Oregon State needs to rough up Wazzu and UCLA, because Arizona in Tucson might be rough." Strongly agree with all 3 of the above needs/conclusions....It starts tonight. WSU has dropped 4 straight Friday night games (by a total of 5 runs) - two on the road, two in Pullman. Senior RHP Grant Taylor (ex-Corvallis Knight) has started all 4 games. He's been outstanding in those 4 starts: 26 IP / 19 H / 28 SO / 5 BB Historically - From his Bio:
2023: "allowed one hit and one earned run in four innings of series-clinching win at No. 15 Oregon State (3/12/23)
2022: "struck out seven, allowed one earned run in six innings against No. 4 Oregon State (3/12/22) What about the 4 straight Friday night losses? It's' a familiar story: Cougs gave up 2 in T9...Cougs gave up 3 in B9...Cougs gave up 1 in T9...Cougs gave up 4 in B9
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Post by messi on May 3, 2024 7:17:51 GMT -8
" Oregon State needs to rough up Wazzu and UCLA, because Arizona in Tucson might be rough." Strongly agree with all 3 of the above needs/conclusions....It starts tonight. WSU has dropped 4 straight Friday night games (by a total of 5 runs) - two on the road, two in Pullman. Senior RHP Grant Taylor (ex-Corvallis Knight) has started all 4 games. He's been outstanding in those 4 starts: 26 IP / 19 H / 28 SO / 5 BB Historically - From his Bio:
2023: "allowed one hit and one earned run in four innings of series-clinching win at No. 15 Oregon State (3/12/23)
2022: "struck out seven, allowed one earned run in six innings against No. 4 Oregon State (3/12/22) What about the 4 straight Friday night losses? It's' a familiar story: Cougs gave up 2 in T9...Cougs gave up 3 in B9...Cougs gave up 1 in T9...Cougs gave up 4 in B9
Hopefully the Beaver bats will actually be swung in the 9th. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 3, 2024 7:47:55 GMT -8
" Oregon State needs to rough up Wazzu and UCLA, because Arizona in Tucson might be rough." Strongly agree with all 3 of the above needs/conclusions....It starts tonight. WSU has dropped 4 straight Friday night games (by a total of 5 runs) - two on the road, two in Pullman. Senior RHP Grant Taylor (ex-Corvallis Knight) has started all 4 games. He's been outstanding in those 4 starts: 26 IP / 19 H / 28 SO / 5 BB Historically - From his Bio:
2023: "allowed one hit and one earned run in four innings of series-clinching win at No. 15 Oregon State (3/12/23)
2022: "struck out seven, allowed one earned run in six innings against No. 4 Oregon State (3/12/22) What about the 4 straight Friday night losses? It's' a familiar story: Cougs gave up 2 in T9...Cougs gave up 3 in B9...Cougs gave up 1 in T9...Cougs gave up 4 in B9
Wow, sounds familiar. Who's gonna "coug it" tonight? Hopefully the OG's |
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Post by richard44 on May 3, 2024 10:04:23 GMT -8
As I said in a different post, unless we can get Guerra, Turley, Kasper, and McDowell back to producing like they can, we have no chance in hell to make a top 8 seed. Compared to their numbers from last year, they are all underperforming this year by large margins (with the exception of Turley who still has good power numbers, but about a .20 to .30 point lower average from last year). Mcdowell and Kasper were obviously injured for large pieces of the year, but clearly we have missed the production they brought last year (McDowell hit .350 on the season and Kasper hit over .300 with double digit homers).
In my mind, it will be a battle for us to keep a top 16 seed moving forward with the way we have been playing. Our schedule is favorable the next two weeks to get back on track, but some of these guys have to start producing in order for that to happen.
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Post by beaverinsider211 on May 3, 2024 11:58:20 GMT -8
As I said in a different post, unless we can get Guerra, Turley, Kasper, and McDowell back to producing like they can, we have no chance in hell to make a top 8 seed. Compared to their numbers from last year, they are all underperforming this year by large margins (with the exception of Turley who still has good power numbers, but about a .20 to .30 point lower average from last year). Mcdowell and Kasper were obviously injured for large pieces of the year, but clearly we have missed the production they brought last year (McDowell hit .350 on the season and Kasper hit over .300 with double digit homers). In my mind, it will be a battle for us to keep a top 16 seed moving forward with the way we have been playing. Our schedule is favorable the next two weeks to get back on track, but some of these guys have to start producing in order for that to happen. I get the comment about Guerra and Turley struggling but before Kasper got hurt he was hitting .350? He’s just now getting his timing back and taking better AB’s. He was huge for us in the Oregon series. McDowell was hitting .460 before the injuries piled up and is still hitting .390. Guerra and Turley are extremely streaky hitters. If they get going here it will be huge for us. Get McDowell and Caraway back here soon and we are in good shape. We just need to get the old lineup back and get it rolling going into June. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on May 3, 2024 12:48:44 GMT -8
"The Beavs path to a TOP-8 seed."
Win.
Sometimes Occam's Razor applies.
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Post by richard44 on May 3, 2024 13:22:04 GMT -8
As I said in a different post, unless we can get Guerra, Turley, Kasper, and McDowell back to producing like they can, we have no chance in hell to make a top 8 seed. Compared to their numbers from last year, they are all underperforming this year by large margins (with the exception of Turley who still has good power numbers, but about a .20 to .30 point lower average from last year). Mcdowell and Kasper were obviously injured for large pieces of the year, but clearly we have missed the production they brought last year (McDowell hit .350 on the season and Kasper hit over .300 with double digit homers). In my mind, it will be a battle for us to keep a top 16 seed moving forward with the way we have been playing. Our schedule is favorable the next two weeks to get back on track, but some of these guys have to start producing in order for that to happen. I get the comment about Guerra and Turley struggling but before Kasper got hurt he was hitting .350? He’s just now getting his timing back and taking better AB’s. He was huge for us in the Oregon series. McDowell was hitting .460 before the injuries piled up and is still hitting .390. Guerra and Turley are extremely streaky hitters. If they get going here it will be huge for us. Get McDowell and Caraway back here soon and we are in good shape. We just need to get the old lineup back and get it rolling going into June. Completely agree. And I didn’t mean to knock on McDowell and Kasper, rather than point out that we have missed their production for a large part of the season. I reread my post and I worded it wrongly. When I mentioned they have underperformed, I was really only speaking to the production. Injuries have unfortunately caused that for those two, not because of bad play. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 4, 2024 22:15:40 GMT -8
From Kendall Rogers and crew:
D1 Baseball: Top Eight National Seeds
SECURE TEAMS: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Clemson, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida State ON THE BUBBLE (IN): East Carolina ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Oregon State
"Oregon State feels like the most likely candidate to jump into the top eight, now that the Beavers won a crucial series against Oregon and remained within 1.5 games of conference-leading Utah and Arizona. OSU is No. 12 in the RPI and has no way to reach the top eight, per the RPI Needs Report, but winning eight or nine of its final 11 will keep it in the top 16 heading into the conference tournament. If Oregon State can win the Pac-12 regular-season title, that could offset an RPI in the teens, because the Pac still has cachet that the AAC (for example) lacks, even in a down year for the Pac. But for now, ECU feels like a better bet." They are looking at an earlier Needs Report. Oregon State lost to Oregon. I want to say that Oregon State's opponents and opponents' opponents came through, so it is looking like winning seven or eight of the final 10 will keep Oregon State in the top 16. The last nine conference games are all going to be biggies. Oregon State needs to rough up Wazzu and UCLA, because Arizona in Tucson might be rough. It is good to see that Oregon State is still ahead in front of Georgia, Indiana State, and South Carolina in pecking order despite having a worse RPI. East Carolina has to win all 11 remaining games to maintain their RPI. The Vols have to go at least 8-3 to maintain their RPI. North Carolina must go at least 6-3. Florida State must go at least 8-4. Clemson must go at least 7-4. Kentucky would have to go worse than 5-6 for Oregon State to be able to realistically catch them. Arkansas would have to go worse than 3-7 for Oregon State to be able to realistically catch them. Texas A&M would have to go worse than 2-8 for Oregon State to realistically be able to catch them. I would note that Tennessee plays Florida in Gainesville today, tomorrow, and Saturday (I want to say for TV), so, in case you want to cheer someone on, you can cheer on Florida tonight to hopefully makes a top eight seed for Oregon State an easier row to hoe. East Carolina beat South Florida in the first game, but the second game rained out. Double-header tomorrow. NC State beat Florida State 8-7 in Tallahasse, and the Saturday game rained out. The Noles need to go worse than 8-2 the rest of the way to really stand a chance at not hosting. Tennessee went 2-1 in Gainesville. The Vols would have to go worse than 7-2 the rest of the way to really stand a chance at not hosting. North Carolina would have to go worse than 6-3 the rest of the way to really stand a chance at not hosting. Kentucky split the first two games against Arkansas. Razorback losses hurt doubly, because they also hurt Oregon State's RPI. Kentucky would have to go worse than 4-5 to really stand a chance at not hosting. Arkansas and Texas A&M would have to implode to not host at this point. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 5, 2024 8:11:07 GMT -8
TAM is working on it. Trying to avoid the sweep today
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 5, 2024 10:43:44 GMT -8
TAM is working on it. Trying to avoid the sweep today Yeah, I saw that. I am thinking that 2-6 might imperil their chance at a top eight seed. They will still have an obscene RPI, but a 3-9 finish usually is a red flag for the Committee. |
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Post by easyheat on May 5, 2024 11:54:05 GMT -8
Boys ... boys ... it's TAMU.
Actually I like plain old A&M, everyone knows who that is.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 5, 2024 14:04:09 GMT -8
Boys ... boys ... it's TAMU. Actually I like plain old A&M, everyone knows who that is. TATM is popular on SEC boards lol |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 5, 2024 14:08:33 GMT -8
TATM and Arky both drop series. Vandy got swept by Georgia which pretty much ends their hopes. UCI is in big trouble against calpoly which will probably knock them out as a top seed.
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