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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 30, 2024 5:45:12 GMT -8
Unfortunately, the polls mean nothing when it comes to determining host sites and national seeds. Our RPI is still 12th, and with double digit losses plus an overall pretty weak perceived SOS we're up against it in terms of locking down a top seed. Not impossible, but without doing the Wilky math, Beavs probably need to finish conference play 8-1 or 7-2 at worst and then have a strong showing in the conference tournament to sniff a host spot unless we get help from teams above us. Yeah that's not how it's going. Reference our SOS is 54. South Carolina (29-14, SOS 4), North Carolina (33-11, SOS 13) and Georgia (31-12,SOS 11) are ahead of us in RPI but all have more losses. If seeds were handed out today SC and Georgia would be left out unless the SEC was going to be awarded more than 4 super sites. North Carolina would be the 3rd super site for the ACC. Indiana State has 1 less loss but 2 less wins and a SOS of 66. Our schedule has two of the weakest teams in the conference and Arizona. Safe to say if we win all of those series we will be just fine. Assuming we lose at PK (doesn't really hurt RPI much) we end up 40-14. The teams ahead of us will also have losses as many of them play each other. Of the serious contenders Clemson, Kentucky, FSU and East Carolina have the easiest task. There is also a regional component. Assuming we take care of business were the only super option west of the Rockies. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 30, 2024 6:24:43 GMT -8
I think the manner in which we lost is what is troubling. We were very close to being no-hit by holes Sunday guy. Since conference play started, Kevin Seitter has had one bad outing, last week at Sunken Diamond. Seitter one-hit USC (another home run) in his last game in Oregon. Seitter is 5-3. The other two losses, besides the loss at Sunken Diamond, were games in which he gave up two earned runs: 1 15-4 loss to Arizona, in which the bullpen imploded and a 4-2 loss to USC. Oregon has the third-lowest ERA and WHIP in conference play behind Arizona and Oregon State in ERA and Oregon State and Arizona in WHIP. Perhaps, it gives me pause about that series in Tucson, but Oregon is a great pitching team. Fair enough. So the big picture is our vaunted offense can be shut down by upper end pitching, which we will surely face more of in ARZ and beyond. Knowing that, you then start looking at pitching depth, defense, mental mistakes, etc.. If I'm a betting man I'd bet against the Beavs to get to Omaha at this point, based on the above. Everything else being equal.....the way this team is built, and the tendency for the lineup to not show up at the plate on occasion.....someone is gonna knock us off. I hope they prove me wrong. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 30, 2024 14:36:06 GMT -8
Unfortunately, the polls mean nothing when it comes to determining host sites and national seeds. Our RPI is still 12th, and with double digit losses plus an overall pretty weak perceived SOS we're up against it in terms of locking down a top seed. Not impossible, but without doing the Wilky math, Beavs probably need to finish conference play 8-1 or 7-2 at worst and then have a strong showing in the conference tournament to sniff a host spot unless we get help from teams above us. Here is basically what I came up with: 10-1 probably clinches a top eight seed. 9-2 probably clinches a top eight seed with a win in Scottsdale 8-3 probably clinches a top eight seed with a winning record in Scottsdale. 7-4 probably clinches a top eight seed with a 4-0 showing in Scottsdale. Short of there, your guess is as good as mine. Weird things can always mess up those "probablys" up above. Georgia has a high RPI right now, but no one is putting them above Oregon State right now. And that will not change, unless they start doing better than they have been in conference play. Oregon State is probably sitting no worse than about 10th plus or minus one, depending on how you view Indiana State (worse SOS and 17-5 in nonconference, and a nonconference RPI of 7) and South Carolina (11-10 in the SEC, 18-4 in nonconference, a nonconference SOS of 102, and a nonconference RPI of 30). For perspective, Oregon State is 21-2 in nonconference play with a nonconference SOS of 54, and a nonconference of RPI. For those playing at home, nonconference RPI of all teams: 1. East Carolina 21-4, SOS 11
2. Texas A&M 23-0, SOS 118
3. Florida State 21-1, SOS 53
4. Oregon State 21-2, SOS 54
That is a hosting nonconference RPI and SOS.
No RPI anchors in Coppin State this year. Only one game against Cal State Bakersfield, which is the closest thing to an RPI anchor on the schedule. New Mexico is up and no loss this year. Nevada is up and the games were in Reno this year. Minnesota is up and two games against Minnesota rather than New Mexico. Surprise actually helped this year as opposed to hurting like last year. Wisely avoided Seattle this year. Wisely traded Cal Poly for CSUN this year, a huge step up from last year. Portland is also up this year. Gonzaga is up this year, and Oregon State played them twice so far. No Grand Canyon, because of how the schedule played out hurts, though. No midweek game against San Diego also hurts.
What is really weighing down Oregon State, though, is being 12-8 in a down Pac-12, although it should be remembered that Oregon State was doing worse at this point of the season last year. Nevertheless, only three teams in the Pac-12 are doing better this year than last year: Arizona, Cal, and Utah. The other seven are doing worse, which is very unfortunate timing.
I will add that this game against Oregon tonight is a big one in perception. With a win, the Beavs probably leapfrog South Carolina into 11th in RPI. With a loss, the Beavs probably stand pat. But the conversation about whether Oregon State is not a Top Ten team probably disappears completely.
I will conclude with the question is more a question of whether Oregon State is a top eight seed rather than whether Oregon State is hosting. Of course there is a Corvallis Regional as of this moment. D1 Baseball had Arizona hosting a Tuscon Regional before the Wildcats lost two straight to the Huskies in Seattle. The question is whether Oregon State could be staring into the teeth of a road Super or not.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 30, 2024 15:36:03 GMT -8
Nice Wilky! Yup we're playing for hosting a super. Even with a massive collapse we get goal 1 of post season. Get to 36 wins there's pretty much zero chance we don't host a regional. We need 40-42 wins to be in line to host the super and not care about the tourney.
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