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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 1, 2024 13:41:07 GMT -8
The big picture for the past week is this, we went 3-1, won a conference series over a top 25 team (at the time), and moved up in the rankings. Our pitching showed some steps forwards and we also moved up in conference standings and bypassed the ducks who were ahead of us. We should all be joyous right? So why does it feel like the ship is sailing dangerously close to the rocks in stormy seas today? We'll because this week we lost a mid-week game to our rival, looked uninspired in the process, showed no fight after getting counter punched, and still have not figured out how to avoid getting outs at 3rd base. Deep breath, big picture, big picture, relax. We got spoiled by the '17/'18 teams....expectations are high for the program. Recruiting has been good. We have a really solid group of talent on this squad This team has been hyped up as "Omaha or bust" We got really lucky to win the ducks series. It took MASTERFUL pitching performances by May and Kmatz, and we still barely snuck out with the series. That series could've easily been a sweep the wrong way....but thats baseball at this level. Bottomline, this team still has a shot to be top 8 seed......but yea, they need to wake up at the plate, and play better D. Also, #3 and #4 starter is an adventure weekly......it could all fall into place, but to me, right now, it doesn't feel like an Omaha team. Prove me wrong, please! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 1, 2024 14:43:00 GMT -8
Team defense has been atrocious. Worst defense in 20 years. Pitching has honestly not been that bad. Below average, sure. But probably better pitching top to bottom than last year. Inconsistent, though. A lot of good, but it can be just awful, when it is not good. Offensively, though, I believe that 2024 is still the best offensive team in Oregon State history, averaging almost nine runs a game. You could probably argue about how worthwhile the offense is with how inconsistent it is, but runs are being scored at a great clip. The O puts up runs, but too many non-competitive AB's down the stretch. I really thought the trickle down effect from Bazzana would permeate the lineup. The whole lineup goes into a funk too much. I know there were games like that for every Beaver team in history, but I just don't remember that many from the '17/'18 teams.....sure, not the HR numbers, but overall, I think a more competitive lineup at the plate. I think with McD and Caraway back the lineup instantly gets a lot more competitive. Oregon State scored five runs yesterday. In the first 44 games, number of times that Oregon State gave up 5+ runs: 2005 122006 162007 14 2008 26 2009 172010 212011 142012 202013 92014 102015 142016 202017 6
2018 13
2019 11
2021 14
2022 12
2023 17
2024 22
Number of wins, giving up 5+ runs:
2005 8
2006 7
2007 8
2008 8
2009 8
2010 5
2011 8
2012 10
2013 3
2014 4
2015 4
2016 7
2017 3
2018 7½
2019 4
2021 4
2022 7
2023 8
2024 13
For those playing at home, 2024 Oregon State has allowed 5+ runs in exactly half of the 44 games. The only team that has exceeded that clip over the past 20 seasons was the very inauspicious 2008 team.
List of Oregon State teams over the past 20 seasons to have a winning record, while giving up 5+ runs: 2005, 2007, 2018, 2022, and 2024. That is two national champion teams, a College World Series team, a team that just had to win a Corvallis Super Regional, and this team.
Those five teams' winning percentage:
2005 .667
2007 .571
2018 .577
2022 .583
2024 .591
2024 is the second-winningest team over the past 20 teams in games, in which the opponent scores 5+ runs.
The offense is approximately 0% of the problem this year. You cannot put the offense in impossible situations and then blame them, when they do not pull off an improbable comeback.
Looking at the numbers, it is mostly defense and some pitching that is the issue. Nitpicking the offense is arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. You are missing the giant hole in the side of the ship that is the defense. |
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Post by beavaristotle on May 1, 2024 15:45:07 GMT -8
The big picture for the past week is this, we went 3-1, won a conference series over a top 25 team (at the time), and moved up in the rankings. Our pitching showed some steps forwards and we also moved up in conference standings and bypassed the ducks who were ahead of us. We should all be joyous right? So why does it feel like the ship is sailing dangerously close to the rocks in stormy seas today? We'll because this week we lost a mid-week game to our rival, looked uninspired in the process, showed no fight after getting counter punched, and still have not figured out how to avoid getting outs at 3rd base. Deep breath, big picture, big picture, relax. We got spoiled by the '17/'18 teams....expectations are high for the program. Recruiting has been good. We have a really solid group of talent on this squad This team has been hyped up as "Omaha or bust" We got really lucky to win the ducks series. It took MASTERFUL pitching performances by May and Kmatz, and we still barely snuck out with the series. That series could've easily been a sweep the wrong way....but thats baseball at this level. Bottomline, this team still has a shot to be top 8 seed......but yea, they need to wake up at the plate, and play better D. Also, #3 and #4 starter is an adventure weekly......it could all fall into place, but to me, right now, it doesn't feel like an Omaha team. Prove me wrong, please! the team was more than happy to hype themselves as Omaha or bust. They essentially set the bar for this team and have failed to meet that level. Seemed like the 17-18 had an Omaha or bust mentality but kept it to themselves |
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Post by ricke71 on May 1, 2024 16:13:11 GMT -8
Defense.
What I have a hard time getting a clear idea about is: in recruiting / development, how is defensive ability brought into the equation?
The miracle year of 2016 when both Madrigal and Grenier showed up in Corvallis (and then were middle infield stalwarts in 2017/2018) is unlikely to be ever repeated.
How does Hainline fit the Beaver standard of great defense? And Guerra....948 and .950 fielding % in in Sophomore and Junior seasons.
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Post by irimi on May 1, 2024 16:40:13 GMT -8
Defense. What I have a hard time getting a clear idea about is: in recruiting / development, how is defensive ability brought into the equation? The miracle year of 2016 when both Madrigal and Grenier showed up in Corvallis (and then were middle infield stalwarts in 2017/2018) is unlikely to be ever repeated. How does Hainline fit the Beaver standard of great defense? And Guerra....948 and .950 fielding % in in Sophomore and Junior seasons. Easy. This isn't your father's Beaver team. ;-)
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Post by irimi on May 1, 2024 16:52:38 GMT -8
Defense. What I have a hard time getting a clear idea about is: in recruiting / development, how is defensive ability brought into the equation? The miracle year of 2016 when both Madrigal and Grenier showed up in Corvallis (and then were middle infield stalwarts in 2017/2018) is unlikely to be ever repeated. How does Hainline fit the Beaver standard of great defense? And Guerra....948 and .950 fielding % in in Sophomore and Junior seasons. In all seriousness, I think Hainline is a decent shortstop, but not the quality that we have seen recently. However, if you ask the guys on the board last year what they thought about Dernedde and whether he ought to be back, they'd still probably say no.
I would still have Dernedde there, if he had stayed. Having a skilled shortstop is sometimes worth the lack of production he might bring.
But I admit that short is a tough place to play. I don't mind Hainline's errors as I think we've lost more runs to weak pitching and weak hitting than to an error or two. And he can hit better than Dernedde.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 1, 2024 17:48:21 GMT -8
The O puts up runs, but too many non-competitive AB's down the stretch. I really thought the trickle down effect from Bazzana would permeate the lineup. The whole lineup goes into a funk too much. I know there were games like that for every Beaver team in history, but I just don't remember that many from the '17/'18 teams.....sure, not the HR numbers, but overall, I think a more competitive lineup at the plate. I think with McD and Caraway back the lineup instantly gets a lot more competitive. Oregon State scored five runs yesterday. In the first 44 games, number of times that Oregon State gave up 5+ runs: 2005 122006 162007 14 2008 26 2009 172010 212011 142012 202013 92014 102015 142016 202017 6
2018 13
2019 11
2021 14
2022 12
2023 17
2024 22
Number of wins, giving up 5+ runs:
2005 8
2006 7
2007 8
2008 8
2009 8
2010 5
2011 8
2012 10
2013 3
2014 4
2015 4
2016 7
2017 3
2018 7½
2019 4
2021 4
2022 7
2023 8
2024 13
For those playing at home, 2024 Oregon State has allowed 5+ runs in exactly half of the 44 games. The only team that has exceeded that clip over the past 20 seasons was the very inauspicious 2008 team.
List of Oregon State teams over the past 20 seasons to have a winning record, while giving up 5+ runs: 2005, 2007, 2018, 2022, and 2024. That is two national champion teams, a College World Series team, a team that just had to win a Corvallis Super Regional, and this team.
Those five teams' winning percentage:
2005 .667
2007 .571
2018 .577
2022 .583
2024 .591
2024 is the second-winningest team over the past 20 teams in games, in which the opponent scores 5+ runs.
The offense is approximately 0% of the problem this year. You cannot put the offense in impossible situations and then blame them, when they do not pull off an improbable comeback.
Looking at the numbers, it is mostly defense and some pitching that is the issue. Nitpicking the offense is arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. You are missing the giant hole in the side of the ship that is the defense.The numbers are nice, but too many games against guys with good breaking stuff where we have K's in the teens. Only takes one or two of those games in the post season, and that's a wrap. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 1, 2024 18:02:30 GMT -8
To be clear, I understand the offense isn't the main issue with this team. But if you factor in recent play, it's inconsistent just like pitching, and defense......of course the raw talent of our lineup is going to put up runs in many games. The blueprint is there on how to shut down our vaunted lineup though, and we haven't made the adjustments......something is up with this team. It's either just a funk, or it's something bigger. I believe we are 4-6 from Reno trip to present. This Wazzu road trip is chance to get right, or the wheels fall off.
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Post by RenoBeaver on May 1, 2024 18:57:17 GMT -8
Baseball is a funny sport. I think the team is in a rut. Happens all the time over the course of a long season. We're not the only team battling through it right now.
There is time to right the ship, multiple guys are slumping at the same time, so lookout if they all emerge out of it at same time.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 1, 2024 19:42:19 GMT -8
Baseball is a funny sport. I think the team is in a rut. Happens all the time over the course of a long season. We're not the only team battling through it right now. There is time to right the ship, multiple guys are slumping at the same time, so lookout if they all emerge out of it at same time. If the hitting gets hot again we can play with anyone. The defense has been pretty consistently bad all season, relative to our standards. The pitching has been inconsistent all season......sometimes pitchers emerge though, late in the season, ala Kevin Abel. |
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Post by avidbeaver on May 1, 2024 19:55:48 GMT -8
Oregon State scored five runs yesterday. In the first 44 games, number of times that Oregon State gave up 5+ runs: 2005 122006 162007 14 2008 26 2009 172010 212011 142012 202013 92014 102015 142016 202017 6
2018 13
2019 11
2021 14
2022 12
2023 17
2024 22
Number of wins, giving up 5+ runs:
2005 8
2006 7
2007 8
2008 8
2009 8
2010 5
2011 8
2012 10
2013 3
2014 4
2015 4
2016 7
2017 3
2018 7½
2019 4
2021 4
2022 7
2023 8
2024 13
For those playing at home, 2024 Oregon State has allowed 5+ runs in exactly half of the 44 games. The only team that has exceeded that clip over the past 20 seasons was the very inauspicious 2008 team.
List of Oregon State teams over the past 20 seasons to have a winning record, while giving up 5+ runs: 2005, 2007, 2018, 2022, and 2024. That is two national champion teams, a College World Series team, a team that just had to win a Corvallis Super Regional, and this team.
Those five teams' winning percentage:
2005 .667
2007 .571
2018 .577
2022 .583
2024 .591
2024 is the second-winningest team over the past 20 teams in games, in which the opponent scores 5+ runs.
The offense is approximately 0% of the problem this year. You cannot put the offense in impossible situations and then blame them, when they do not pull off an improbable comeback.
Looking at the numbers, it is mostly defense and some pitching that is the issue. Nitpicking the offense is arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. You are missing the giant hole in the side of the ship that is the defense.The numbers are nice, but too many games against guys with good breaking stuff where we have K's in the teens. Only takes one or two of those games in the post season, and that's a wrap. Yep, the off speed pitchers are the kryptonite for the Beavers at least lately. Have to figure out a way to hit the off speed pitches. |
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Post by irimi on May 2, 2024 6:08:30 GMT -8
Baseball is a funny sport. I think the team is in a rut. Happens all the time over the course of a long season. We're not the only team battling through it right now. There is time to right the ship, multiple guys are slumping at the same time, so lookout if they all emerge out of it at same time. I’ve seen succumbing to the rut, but not a lot of battling to get out of it. Strikeout numbers are too damned high. I’d rather see guys make contact and make an out than go down swinging or worse, looking. |
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Post by osubeaver2018 on May 2, 2024 10:21:52 GMT -8
Team defense has been atrocious. Worst defense in 20 years. Pitching has honestly not been that bad. Below average, sure. But probably better pitching top to bottom than last year. Inconsistent, though. A lot of good, but it can be just awful, when it is not good. Offensively, though, I believe that 2024 is still the best offensive team in Oregon State history, averaging almost nine runs a game. You could probably argue about how worthwhile the offense is with how inconsistent it is, but runs are being scored at a great clip. The O puts up runs, but too many non-competitive AB's down the stretch. I really thought the trickle down effect from Bazzana would permeate the lineup. The whole lineup goes into a funk too much. I know there were games like that for every Beaver team in history, but I just don't remember that many from the '17/'18 teams.....sure, not the HR numbers, but overall, I think a more competitive lineup at the plate. I think with McD and Caraway back the lineup instantly gets a lot more competitive. I'm concerned Micah may not be back to himself at any point this season. He's attempted to come back from injury multiple times now and hasn't lasted long either time before being back on the shelf. I'm not sure what the most recent injury or re-injury was, but playing a game and a half, scuffling at the plate and being replaced defensively wasn't a great look in the Cal series. Agree if he's healthy the lineup is much better overall and gives everyone a boost, but not sure we can bank on his return anymore. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 2, 2024 15:45:02 GMT -8
Oregon State's record in games in which the Beavs scored five runs:
2005 6-1 5-3 win in Santa Barbara, 5-2 win against Riverside, 5-2 win against Cal, 7-5 loss in Tucson, 5-4 win against Wazzu, 5-1 win against Arizona State, and 5-4 win against USC.
2006 7-1 6-5 loss against Gonzaga in Surprise. Oregon State beat Wright State 5-3 in the Corvallis Regional. Oregon State beat Georgia 5-3 in Omaha and beat Rice 5-0 two days later.
2007 6-1 6-5 loss against Gonzaga in Surprise. Oregon State went 11-1 in the postseason. The first three wins were in Charlottesville: 5-1 and 5-2 over Rutgers and 5-3 over Virginia.
2008 2-4 10-5 loss to Georgia in Portland, 5-4 win over Georgia in Portland, 10-5 loss in San Diego, 8-5 loss to Pepperdine, 5-4 win against Portland, and 6-5 loss at Dedeaux.
2009 7-3 Oregon State won every game, in which they scored more than six, going 2-4 in games in which the Beavs scored exactly six. 1-2 in games in which the Beavs scored exactly four.
2010 3-1 5-0 win at Hawai'i, 5-4 win over Utah (pre-Pac-12), 6-5 loss in Tempe, and 5-0 win over Arizona. The Beavs won all games in which they scored more than 8 and only lost two scoring 7.
2011 3-0 5-1 win over VMI and 5-3 win on Friday against Arizona State. Oregon State beat Creighton 5-1 on Saturday in the Corvallis Regional. The Beavs won every game scoring more than 7.
2012 7-3 Lost the Baton Rouge Regional Championship Game 6-5 against LSU, blowing a lead at the end. Lost a game 13-12 in Santa Barbara. Won every game scoring more than five.
2013 10-0 Beat UTSA 5-4 in the Friday game at the Corvallis Regional. Lost a one-off game in Pullman 10-9, but the Beavs won every other game in which they scored more than four.
2014 3-0 Beat Portland 5-0 midweek, beat Utah 5-1, and beat Cal in Berkeley 5-0 . Lost 8-7 to Michigan State and 7-6 to Sac State. Otherwise, won every game in which they scored more than 3.
2015 6-1 Lost to UCLA 10-5 in Jackie Robinson. Oregon State beat Texas 5-4 in the Dallas Regional. Oregon State lost 10-9 to Oregon. Undefeated scoring more than six otherwise.
2016 3-4 5-2 win in San Diego, lost to San Diego State 6-5, beat Washington 5-4, lost in Pullman 7-5, beat Seattle 5-4, lost in Tucson 6-5, and lost to Portland 7-5 in Keizer.
2017 12-1 Lost 7-5 against USC in the Saturday game. Oregon State lost in Seattle 3-2 on Holy Thursday. Otherwise, Oregon State won every game in which the Beavs scored more than one run.
2018 10-2 Lost 6-5 in Tucson. Lost 8-5 against Arizona State. Won the last three games of the season, scoring five: the semifinal against Mississippi State and both wins against Arkansas.
2019 4-1 Oregon State beat New Mexico in Surprise. Oregon State beat Nebraska 5-3 in Surprise. Stanford beat Oregon State 8-5. Oregon State beat Stanford 5-2. Oregon State beat USC 5-2.
2020 1-0 Oregon State beat Gonzaga 5-1 in Surprise on Presidents' Day Eve. Oregon State lost 12-11 at San Diego State but won every other game in which Oregon State scored more than four.
2021 6-5 Oregon State scored five runs against Dallas Baptist in the the three games against them in the Forth Worth Regional: a 6-5 loss, a 5-4 win two days later, and an 8-5 loss on Monday.
2022 5-4 Lost the Pac-12 Championship Game to Stanford 9-5. Beat New Mexico State 5-4 in the Corvallis Regional. Lost to Auburn 7-5 in Game One of the Corvallis Super Regional.
2023 4-3 Oregon State lost the first game against LSU 6-5 in the Baton Rouge Regional. Oregon State also lost the Saturday game at Sunken Diamond and the Friday game at Jackie Robinson.
2024 0-1 Oregon State lost midweek to Oregon 9-5. Utah beat Oregon State 14-11 in Salt Lake City. Stanford beat Oregon State 11-10. Nevada beat Oregon State 11-10.
Oregon State lost the last three games in which the Beavs scored exactly five runs: the 12-5 loss to UCLA in the Friday game, the 6-5 loss to LSU on Sunday, and the 9-5 loss to Oregon two days ago.
105-33 before that. 74.47% of winning a game in which Oregon State scores five runs.
Oregon State's record in games in which the Beavs allowed nine runs:
2005 0-2 Pepperdine won 9-4 in Malibu. USC won the second game of the Corvallis Super Regional 9-8. Oregon State blew an 8-3 lead in the eighth, squandering a gem by Jonah Nickerson.
2006 1-0 Oregon State beat Portland 14-9 in Portland. The game was one of five games in which the Beavs gave up more than eight runs, including the 11-1 loss to Miami to kick off Omaha.
2007 0-2 Stanford beat Oregon State 9-7 at Sunken Diamond on the final Saturday in April. Washington beat Oregon State 9-6 in Seattle on the first Saturday in May.
2008 2-1 California won 9-3 on the first Saturday in April. Oregon State outlasted Stanford 10-9 the following Friday. Oregon State beat Wazzu 19-9 in Pullman on Cinco de Mayo.
2009 1-0 Oregon State beat San Francisco 11-9 on a Thursday in Palm Springs. The Dons built up two multi-run leads. Oregon State came back twice and went up 11-6 before coasting to victory.
2010 0-3 Tennessee won 9-2 in Corvallis, Oregon won 9-4 midweek in Eugene, and Cal won 9-3 in Berkeley five days later. Oregon State went on a 10-4 tear thereafter to save the season.
2011 0-1 The season ended in a 9-3 loss to Vandy in Nashville. The Commodores scored 20 in the two games. Oregon State gave up more than eight runs in only one other game.
2012 0-1 Wazzu won 9-5 in Pullman on May 19, 2012. Oregon State had given up 10 runs eight days before. But Oregon State otherwise did not give up more than eight runs after starting 4-3.
2013 0-0 Oregon State only gave up more than seven runs twice, both games against the Washington schools, the first in the second game of a doubleheader against Washington.
2014 0-1 Nebraska beat Oregon State 9-2 in Surprise. Oregon State only gave up more than seven runs twice more, an 11-2 loss in Tucson and the 14-2 loss in the Corvallis Regional.
2015 1-1 Back-to-back games in Surprise, a 10-9 win over Kansas State and a 9-6 loss against Oklahoma. Only three other games in which Oregon State gave up more than eight on the season.
2016 0-0 Only gave up more than eight runs three times, a 12-9 loss to Utah Valley, an 11-10 win in Eugene midweek, and a 10-1 loss at Dedeaux, which doomed the season.
2017 0-0 Only gave up more than seven runs once, the 11-10 win over Cal. Fehm did not start another game until game two of the Corvallis Super Regional against Vandy.
2018 0-1 Stanford won 9-6 to avoid the sweep and win the Pac-12 Championship. Oregon State gave up more than eight runs only two other times, in losses against Utah and Arizona.
2019 0-1 UCLA won 9-7 to win the series. Despite the pitching staff being decimated, Oregon State only gave up more than eight runs once, a 12-8 midweek loss to Oregon.
2020 0-0 Oregon State gave up more than six runs to Gonzaga, a 10-4 loss in Surprise, Mississippi State in a 7-4 loss in Starkville, and San Diego State, a 12-11 loss in San Diego.
2021 0-1 Arizona State won 9-6 in the Friday game in Phoenix. Oregon State gave up more than eight runs four other times: Santa Clara midweek, Irvine, Arizona State a second time, and Arizona.
2022 3-2 Wazzu won 9-8. Oregon State won 13-9 in Berkeley. Oregon State won 12-9 in Tucson. Oregon State opened the Pac-12 Tournament with a 13-9 win and finished with a 9-5 loss.
2023 0-1 9-8 loss to Stanford on St. Patrick's Day. Oregon State almost overcame a 9-3 deficit but ran out of outs. The Beavs gave up more than eight runs nine other times.
2024 0-1 9-5 loss to Oregon in Eugene. OSU gave up more than eight runs five other times: loss in SLC, loss in Irvine, loss to Stanford, loss in Reno, and loss in Berkeley.
Oregon State lost the last three games in which the Beavs allowed exactly nine runs: the 9-5 loss to Stanford in the 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game, the 9-8 loss to Stanford in the Friday game (Stanford led 9-3, in the seventh, and Oregon State almost came back to tie in the ninth), and the 9-5 loss to Oregon two days ago. 8-19 over the past 20 seasons in games in which the Beavs allowed nine runs. 70.37% chance of losing a game in which Oregon State allows nine runs.
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