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Post by hottubbeaver on Apr 3, 2024 12:13:41 GMT -8
Looking over conference stats and Stolen Bases jumped out. OSU has 22 (8th), while Utah has 60 (1st) yes SIXTY. I believe they had 6 against us and they have almost double the team with second most steals at 33.
Do they have some unique recognition / insight on pitchers tendencies? They have something figured out to be that much more productive than anyone else. Wonder what it is.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 3, 2024 14:07:51 GMT -8
They have decent team speed and below average bats. They need to steal. We don't need to sinc we have 52 homers.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 3, 2024 14:20:52 GMT -8
Looking over conference stats and Stolen Bases jumped out. OSU has 22 (8th), while Utah has 60 (1st) yes SIXTY. I believe they had 6 against us and they have almost double the team with second most steals at 33. Do they have some unique recognition / insight on pitchers tendencies? They have something figured out to be that much more productive than anyone else. Wonder what it is. 45 of Utah's steals were in nonconference play. Utah, for example, had 11 in two games against Northern Colorado. Utah had six steals against Oregon State, but that is a Pac-12 season high. Utah only had three steals each against Wazzu, Cal, and Stanford. Were they able to do something against the Beavs? I note that four of the six steals were in the one game that Wilson Weber started. Utah only had one steal in each of the other two games, and Tanner Smith threw Kai Roberts out at second. It was the first time all year that Roberts got thrown out at second by a catcher. Cal was able to get Roberts out at second afterwards. Those are the only two times that Roberts has been thrown out by a catcher all year. 18 steals in 20 attempts (with one pickoff). I will say that the six steals against Oregon State only amounted to one run in the first game, and Roberts getting thrown out at second almost thwarted Utah's comeback. Analytics indicate that steals must be successful at least 67% of the time, in order for them to be worth the effort and Utah is barely above the breakeven point, successful in 68% of steals on the season. |
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Post by ag87 on Apr 3, 2024 15:32:37 GMT -8
Looking over conference stats and Stolen Bases jumped out. OSU has 22 (8th), while Utah has 60 (1st) yes SIXTY. I believe they had 6 against us and they have almost double the team with second most steals at 33. Do they have some unique recognition / insight on pitchers tendencies? They have something figured out to be that much more productive than anyone else. Wonder what it is. 45 of Utah's steals were in nonconference play. Utah, for example, had 11 in two games against Northern Colorado. Utah had six steals against Oregon State, but that is a Pac-12 season high. Utah only had three steals each against Wazzu, Cal, and Stanford. Were they able to do something against the Beavs? I note that four of the six steals were in the one game that Wilson Weber started. Utah only had one steal in each of the other two games, and Tanner Smith threw Kai Roberts out at second. It was the first time all year that Roberts got thrown out at second by a catcher. Cal was able to get Roberts out at second afterwards. Those are the only two times that Roberts has been thrown out by a catcher all year. 18 steals in 20 attempts (with one pickoff). I will say that the six steals against Oregon State only amounted to one run in the first game, and Roberts getting thrown out at second almost thwarted Utah's comeback. Analytics indicate that steals must be successful at least 67% of the time, in order for them to be worth the effort and Utah is barely above the breakeven point, successful in 68% of steals on the season. It's been a while since I read this, but I think Bill James was saying 80% around 1990. So when Ricky Henderson stole 100 bases and got caught 15 times, the A's netted something like three runs. If there is a way to quantify a pitcher's performance when he is worried about a guy getting a good jump on him, the numbers may be different. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 3, 2024 16:11:58 GMT -8
I've always thought the mental game of stealing is more important than the steal itself. In a way it can be a form of protection for a great hitter. If Baz wasn't a huge threat to steal every opportunity he got then he would be walked at lead off more often. The threat can also be a distraction to a pitcher and a defense. Finally having to keep defenders in position to hold runners can disrupt the ability to shift to the statistical best locations.
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Post by irimi on Apr 4, 2024 5:28:25 GMT -8
So much of baseball becomes absurd when simply broken down to numbers, no offense Wilky. Any time that you put pressure on the opposing team, you’re doing things right. I loved Utah’s aggressiveness on the base path. It isn’t just the pitcher who has to be alert, but the catcher, first baseman and second baseman. Every pitch. And the defense has to be able to make the play—the throw has to be on target and the tag has to be applied. There’s a lot that can go wrong in that equation especially at this level.
In the pros, maybe you can count on the pitcher to make that pitch and not get rattled. Maybe you can count on the catcher being able to receive the ball cleanly and get a good throw off. And maybe you can count on the second baseman grabbing the ball and applying the tag. Then maybe the percentages are more reasonable. But in college ball, you can’t assume any of that. So put the pressure on and force the other team to make a bang-bang play.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 4, 2024 13:09:14 GMT -8
So much of baseball becomes absurd when simply broken down to numbers, no offense Wilky. Any time that you put pressure on the opposing team, you’re doing things right. I loved Utah’s aggressiveness on the base path. It isn’t just the pitcher who has to be alert, but the catcher, first baseman and second baseman. Every pitch. And the defense has to be able to make the play—the throw has to be on target and the tag has to be applied. There’s a lot that can go wrong in that equation especially at this level. In the pros, maybe you can count on the pitcher to make that pitch and not get rattled. Maybe you can count on the catcher being able to receive the ball cleanly and get a good throw off. And maybe you can count on the second baseman grabbing the ball and applying the tag. Then maybe the percentages are more reasonable. But in college ball, you can’t assume any of that. So put the pressure on and force the other team to make a bang-bang play. I do not think that top-end baseball D1 baseball teams are going to feel that pressure by and large. I think that you have to pick your battles. It seemed like Utah took advantage of Wilson Weber, which is why I think Mitchy Slick replaced Weber with Tanner Smith on Sunday. Utah ran themselves out of scoring more runs on Sunday. In the end, I do not think that stealing actually helped Utah win any games. In fact, I think that it made it harder for the Utes to win the Sunday game. The four stolen bases amounted to exactly zero runs on Saturday in an 8-1 loss. Outside of the Wilson Weber game on Saturday, Utah is averaging one stolen base every game, which is what, a run every fourth game at most, assuming no thwarted attempts, which there were. I do not think that it is a viable long-term strategy, and relying on the stolen base for part of the season and then shifting gears in the postseason seems to be a recipe for disaster. I do not believe that I am, but I could always be wrong. |
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Post by ag87 on Apr 4, 2024 14:06:46 GMT -8
I'm veering off topic here. But we are not getting much offense from the catcher position. We have some bats that are only playing because of some current injuries. I see Hainline as a guy who will top out at AA playing 3rd base. It's late to do this but I wonder if he's ever put the gear on and or would be willing.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 4, 2024 22:14:40 GMT -8
I'm veering off topic here. But we are not getting much offense from the catcher position. We have some bats that are only playing because of some current injuries. I see Hainline as a guy who will top out at AA playing 3rd base. It's late to do this but I wonder if he's ever put the gear on and or would be willing. Weber is barely a defensive Power Five catcher. Hainline might try out catching in the minors, but, absent injury, Hainline has no business catching this year for Oregon State. It is rarely worth it to sacrifice defense for hitting. If you find that you need hitting late in the game, you can always pinch hit for the catcher. |
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Post by beaverinsider211 on Apr 4, 2024 23:20:08 GMT -8
I'm veering off topic here. But we are not getting much offense from the catcher position. We have some bats that are only playing because of some current injuries. I see Hainline as a guy who will top out at AA playing 3rd base. It's late to do this but I wonder if he's ever put the gear on and or would be willing. I don’t think the catching position is a huge worry offensively in the long term. Being down MMD, Kasper, and Caraway creates holes in the lineup that exasperate lacking offensive capabilities from the catching position. In the short term Smith/Tanner are going to have to step it up offensively with those guys being down. Hainline not a catcher. He’s an offensive second baseman at the next level. He’s played 2B his whole college career until playing SS for the Beavs. I think he’s fine on the left side of the infield but don’t think it’s his home long term. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Apr 5, 2024 5:12:33 GMT -8
I'm veering off topic here. But we are not getting much offense from the catcher position. We have some bats that are only playing because of some current injuries. I see Hainline as a guy who will top out at AA playing 3rd base. It's late to do this but I wonder if he's ever put the gear on and or would be willing. Weber is barely a defensive Power Five catcher. Hainline might try out catching in the minors, but, absent injury, Hainline has no business catching this year for Oregon State. It is rarely worth it to sacrifice defense for hitting. If you find that you need hitting late in the game, you can always pinch hit for the catcher. I believe Talt is the other player that can catch, but I’m not sure how good he is at it. He’s definitely a better hitter than the other two catchers. |
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Post by irimi on Apr 5, 2024 14:26:34 GMT -8
I'm veering off topic here. But we are not getting much offense from the catcher position. We have some bats that are only playing because of some current injuries. I see Hainline as a guy who will top out at AA playing 3rd base. It's late to do this but I wonder if he's ever put the gear on and or would be willing. Do we need more offense? We don’t, unless we do. |
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Post by irimi on Apr 5, 2024 14:39:13 GMT -8
So much of baseball becomes absurd when simply broken down to numbers, no offense Wilky. Any time that you put pressure on the opposing team, you’re doing things right. I loved Utah’s aggressiveness on the base path. It isn’t just the pitcher who has to be alert, but the catcher, first baseman and second baseman. Every pitch. And the defense has to be able to make the play—the throw has to be on target and the tag has to be applied. There’s a lot that can go wrong in that equation especially at this level. In the pros, maybe you can count on the pitcher to make that pitch and not get rattled. Maybe you can count on the catcher being able to receive the ball cleanly and get a good throw off. And maybe you can count on the second baseman grabbing the ball and applying the tag. Then maybe the percentages are more reasonable. But in college ball, you can’t assume any of that. So put the pressure on and force the other team to make a bang-bang play. I do not think that top-end baseball D1 baseball teams are going to feel that pressure by and large. I think that you have to pick your battles. It seemed like Utah took advantage of Wilson Weber, which is why I think Mitchy Slick replaced Weber with Tanner Smith on Sunday. Utah ran themselves out of scoring more runs on Sunday. In the end, I do not think that stealing actually helped Utah win any games. In fact, I think that it made it harder for the Utes to win the Sunday game. The four stolen bases amounted to exactly zero runs on Saturday in an 8-1 loss. Outside of the Wilson Weber game on Saturday, Utah is averaging one stolen base every game, which is what, a run every fourth game at most, assuming no thwarted attempts, which there were. I do not think that it is a viable long-term strategy, and relying on the stolen base for part of the season and then shifting gears in the postseason seems to be a recipe for disaster. I do not believe that I am, but I could always be wrong. I sorta remember losing a game when an opposing player stole home. Remember? And I consider us to be one of the best D1 teams. I’ve also seen D1 teams throw the ball too high or too far off target to make the play. And I’ve seen wild pitches and passed balls at a higher rate than in the pros, which is why I think what’s appropriate or accepted wisdom in the pros doesn’t count here. The numbers never lie, but they also never tell the whole truth. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 5, 2024 17:38:13 GMT -8
I do not think that top-end baseball D1 baseball teams are going to feel that pressure by and large. I think that you have to pick your battles. It seemed like Utah took advantage of Wilson Weber, which is why I think Mitchy Slick replaced Weber with Tanner Smith on Sunday. Utah ran themselves out of scoring more runs on Sunday. In the end, I do not think that stealing actually helped Utah win any games. In fact, I think that it made it harder for the Utes to win the Sunday game. The four stolen bases amounted to exactly zero runs on Saturday in an 8-1 loss. Outside of the Wilson Weber game on Saturday, Utah is averaging one stolen base every game, which is what, a run every fourth game at most, assuming no thwarted attempts, which there were. I do not think that it is a viable long-term strategy, and relying on the stolen base for part of the season and then shifting gears in the postseason seems to be a recipe for disaster. I do not believe that I am, but I could always be wrong. I’ve also seen D1 teams throw the ball too high or too far off target to make the play. And I’ve seen wild pitches and passed balls at a higher rate than in the pros, which is why I think what’s appropriate or accepted wisdom in the pros doesn’t count here. The numbers never lie, but they also never tell the whole truth. Huh? The last time that any team stole home against Oregon State in a Beaver loss was April 30, 2010. Mark Canha was at first, and Tony Renda was at third in a 1-0 ballgame at Evans Diamond. Greg Peavey was pitching to Parker Berberet. Carter Bell was covering second. Canha stole second, and drew the throw from Berberet to Bell, which was not in time. Bell tried to throw back to get Renda but threw it away to allow Canha to get to third. Canha wound up scoring for a 3-0 lead Renda had an eight-year professional career including two stints in the Majors for two different teams. Canha is still playing for the Tigers. That was a stacked Cal team (comparatively) that included Marcus Semien. And that was not a great Oregon State team, arguably the worst Oregon State team to play in a Regional in the past 35 years. Are you thinking of the game against Vandy in the 2022 Corvallis Regional or North Carolina's failed steal of home in 2006? |
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