|
|
Post by colonelmustard on Mar 9, 2024 10:01:20 GMT -8
According to the RPI needs report on Boyd’s World, We have no shot at a top 8 RPI. To finish in the top 16 we can only lose 3 more games. I know it is very early in the season. This illustrates how narrow our margin of error is if we want to host, let alone get a national seed. With the Pac 12 performing so poorly in nonconference, we are getting a sneak peak of what life will be like next year. The series on the past 2 weekend are not helping.
On a side note, TCU is projected to have a top eight RPI only if they lose no more than 1 game. They just got done winning eight straight games against Pac 12 teams. In an interview the coach was complaining about the Pac 12 games killing his RPI.
|
|
|
|
Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 9, 2024 10:41:11 GMT -8
There's more to it than RPI. We just have to be the best team on the west coast. Assuming no major collapses it's us vs UC Irvine to host in the west.
There will be plenty of attrition to many of those top RPI teams through the season. Outside of the SEC schools no one can afford many losses if they want to be top 8 because the SOS and RPI advantage they have on their conference schedule is very large.
Just keep winning, it looks like our path is fairly easy but I expect many of the P12 teams and I'll be rebounding. Results are already weird in the first day of conference play.
|
|
|
|
Post by irimi on Mar 9, 2024 10:49:46 GMT -8
Hosting or not is still far away. Let's just keep winning and take it a day at a time.
(But I believe the legacy of Beaver Baseball and Corvallis as a good hosting site means that we will get the nod if we have the wins.)
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 9, 2024 10:54:16 GMT -8
According to the RPI needs report on Boyd’s World, We have no shot at a top 8 RPI. To finish in the top 16 we can only lose 3 more games. I know it is very early in the season. This illustrates how narrow our margin of error is if we want to host, let alone get a national seed. With the Pac 12 performing so poorly in nonconference, we are getting a sneak peak of what life will be like next year. The series on the past 2 weekend are not helping. On a side note, TCU is projected to have a top eight RPI only if they lose no more than 1 game. They just got done winning eight straight games against Pac 12 teams. In an interview the coach was complaining about the Pac 12 games killing his RPI.  Do not get too hung up on the early Boyd's World Needs Reports. They project your RPI, but the projection assumes that the current top eight teams will keep up their current pace (Central Florida, Irvine, and Nebraska, I am looking at you), which is so highly improbable that it borders on impossible. It is an excellent tool, but you really have to know how to use it to make it work correctly. Last year, South Carolina finished eighth in RPI with an RPI of .605. That is currently comparable to the 32nd team right now. So, the 32nd RPI Needs Report currently gives you a better idea at what Oregon State really needs to hit, in order to get a Top Eight Seed. Using that, Oregon State needs to go 32-9 to finish 45-10, in order to basically clinch a Top Eight Seed. It should also be noted that Virginia, which finished 10th in RPI was given the number seven overall seed in 2023. Virginia's RPI last year was .596, which is comparable to the 45th team right now. Using the 45th RPI Needs Report indicates that Oregon State would have a Top Ten RPI and would probably be a shoe-in to earn a Top Eight Seed by going 30-11 to finish 43-12, which seems about right. Top Eight Seed at 43-12. Short of there, absolutely no promises. How opponents and opponents' opponents perform affect the foregoing analysis. |
|
|
|
Post by RenoBeaver on Mar 9, 2024 12:58:49 GMT -8
I really can't fathom any scenario where they keep the #1 team in the country from hosting super regionals
|
|
|
|
Post by flyfishinbeav on Mar 9, 2024 13:09:10 GMT -8
We can't help that all of the traitorous bastards suck this season
|
|
|
|
Post by beaverinsider211 on Mar 9, 2024 13:48:07 GMT -8
RPI really only matters if we end up a bubble team. It’s just something taken into account by the committee. If we win the PAC12 pretty much guarantees a top 8 seed.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 9, 2024 17:21:41 GMT -8
RPI really only matters if we end up a bubble team. It’s just something taken into account by the committee. If we win the PAC12 pretty much guarantees a top 8 seed. 2016 says differently. The Missouri Valley Conference has a better RPI than the Pac-12 currently. Oregon State really needs to go 43-12 or better with this schedule. Otherwise, there are absolutely no promises. |
|
|
|
Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 9, 2024 17:26:52 GMT -8
RPI really only matters if we end up a bubble team. It’s just something taken into account by the committee. If we win the PAC12 pretty much guarantees a top 8 seed. 2016 says differently. The Missouri Valley Conference has a better RPI than the Pac-12 currently. Oregon State really needs to go 43-12 or better with this schedule. Otherwise, there are absolutely no promises. Off to a good start at 14-1 with our only loss to #2. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 9, 2024 17:33:16 GMT -8
2016 says differently. The Missouri Valley Conference has a better RPI than the Pac-12 currently. Oregon State really needs to go 43-12 or better with this schedule. Otherwise, there are absolutely no promises. Off to a good start at 14-1 with our only loss to #2. Arkansas currently sits #1 in RPI. Oregon State is currently #7. Oregon State is 14-1 but with the worst SOS of the top nine teams in RPI. |
|
|
|
Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 9, 2024 17:37:34 GMT -8
Off to a good start at 14-1 with our only loss to #2. Arkansas currently sits #1 in RPI. Oregon State is currently #7. Oregon State is 14-1 but with the worst SOS of the top nine teams in RPI. I'll worry about RPI after we lose a series. |
|
|
|
Post by beaverbeliever71 on Mar 10, 2024 9:44:06 GMT -8
Just keep winning. RPI stuff will work itself out.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 11, 2024 17:39:07 GMT -8
According to the RPI needs report on Boyd’s World, We have no shot at a top 8 RPI. To finish in the top 16 we can only lose 3 more games. I know it is very early in the season. This illustrates how narrow our margin of error is if we want to host, let alone get a national seed. With the Pac 12 performing so poorly in nonconference, we are getting a sneak peak of what life will be like next year. The series on the past 2 weekend are not helping. On a side note, TCU is projected to have a top eight RPI only if they lose no more than 1 game. They just got done winning eight straight games against Pac 12 teams. In an interview the coach was complaining about the Pac 12 games killing his RPI. Do not get too hung up on the early Boyd's World Needs Reports. They project your RPI, but the projection assumes that the current top eight teams will keep up their current pace (Central Florida, Irvine, and Nebraska, I am looking at you), which is so highly improbable that it borders on impossible. It is an excellent tool, but you really have to know how to use it to make it work correctly. Last year, South Carolina finished eighth in RPI with an RPI of .605. That is currently comparable to the 32nd team right now. So, the 32nd RPI Needs Report currently gives you a better idea at what Oregon State really needs to hit, in order to get a Top Eight Seed. Using that, Oregon State needs to go 32-9 to finish 45-10, in order to basically clinch a Top Eight Seed. It should also be noted that Virginia, which finished 10th in RPI was given the number seven overall seed in 2023. Virginia's RPI last year was .596, which is comparable to the 45th team right now. Using the 45th RPI Needs Report indicates that Oregon State would have a Top Ten RPI and would probably be a shoe-in to earn a Top Eight Seed by going 30-11 to finish 43-12, which seems about right. Top Eight Seed at 43-12. Short of there, absolutely no promises. How opponents and opponents' opponents perform affect the foregoing analysis. New data from Boyd's World. Stanford had an RPI of 13 and nabbed the #8 overall seed last year. Stanford's RPI was .589. That is roughly comparable to "Top 45" right now. That says that Oregon State needs to finish 26-13 to finish with an overall record of 41-14 to finish with a top 13 RPI and a probable top-eight seed. |
|
|
|
Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 11, 2024 18:13:46 GMT -8
So we could lose 1 game every league series and still be ahead of the curve.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaverinsider211 on Mar 11, 2024 18:27:15 GMT -8
So we could lose 1 game every league series and still be ahead of the curve. Yes, and I still think we have some wiggle room if we just win the PAC. Much like Stanford last year they were not top 8 in RPI. Winning the best conference on the west coast means something even if this is a down year. |
|
