Some thoughts about that weekend rotation thing (long & windy)
Jan 19, 2024 14:48:16 GMT -8
beaver1989, whocares, and 3 more like this
Post by easyheat on Jan 19, 2024 14:48:16 GMT -8
As I see it, in discussing front line starters in 2024, we have three questions that need answering.
Oregon State began Fall Practice with 22 pitchers listed on the roster. From top to bottom it is a talented group, an impressive mix of experienced veterans and promising freshman. I think there is no question that Coach Dorman has a Legion of Arms at his disposal. The Beavs should have the best bullpen in the PAC-12 if not one of the best in the country. During his time at OSU, coach Dorman has demonstrated a preference for using multiple relievers working one and two inning appearances. Opposing hitters are constantly having to adjust to a new arm over the final innings of a game. He also likes the “opposite match up” with certain hitters L vs R and R vs L. If the final roster has 18 or more pitchers listed, he will have many weapons at his disposal to exercise his wishes. They can all pitch.
If there is any concern with the Beaver’s pitching staff, it would be with the starting rotation we will see in weekend series once conference play begins. Since we won’t know what the coaches have in mind in the way of a weekend rotation until the season unfolds, for the purpose of discussion we can assume we see Aiden May, Jared Hunter and Jacob Kmatz. On paper, we don’t see a Friday night “Ace” this year. Recent Friday night “automatic W” pitchers like Rasmussen, Thompson, Heimlich, Chamberlain and Hjerpe are no longer on campus.
A second question would be, if one of the starters is injured or struggles, are Keljo, Lawson or Jiminez be ready to step into a weekend starter’s role?
For comparative purposes, lets break the pitching metrics down into 9 inning occurrences. I’ll start with Jaren because the primary question surrounding him has to do with recovery from last year’s arm injury. If the nature of the injury was ever revealed, I missed it but it was obviously serious enough to limit his season by more than 50%. If he is fully recovered and healthy, he should be very effective. Hunter’s stats are easily the best of the three pitchers we’ll look at here. In limited innings in 2023, his numbers were very good.
STATS: Jaren threw 32.2 innings last year. He allowed 26 Hits (7.15/9), 13/11 Runs (3.50/9), 28 K (7.73/9), 7 BB and 4 HBP (3.37/9). He allowed 6 XBH (3 HR). KEY STATS: BB:K Ratio = 1:2.54, Opponents BA .217, his WHIP was 1.01, ERA was 3.03, Opponents OB% was .282.
Jaren throws a variety of pitches with exceptional command. His ball movement and location of pitches is a clinic. He uses the entire zone, changes speed, and induces a high % of ground ball outs. Jaren has in scouting vernacular, “pitchability”. He is smart and methodical. Oregon had a fairly good offense in 2022 and ’23 and they couldn’t touch Hunter – he was baffling and beat them twice. In summary, excellent metrics - so, how’s the arm?
Jacob Kmatz has been a proven starter for two years with the Beavers. He has started 29 games and has compiled a 13-6 record heading into his Junior year. Like Jaren Hunter, Kmatz also missed time due to injury In 2023.
STATS: When healthy, Jacob threw 72.2 innings allowing 72 Hits (9.0/9) and 40/38 Runs (4.71/9). Kmatz racked up 61 strike outs (7.57/9), issued 26 walks and hit 6 batters (3.79/9). Jacob was touched for 27 XBH and gave up 13 home runs. KEY STATS: BB:K Ratio = 1:1.8, Opponents BA .258, his WHIP was 1.35. ERA was 4.71, and Opponents OB% was .331.
Kmatz relies on a low 90’s fastball and slider to accumulate outs. He’s poised, competitive and has proven he can escape jams when they occur. Sometimes Jacob has a tendency to be hit hard and cutting down the extra base hits and keeping the ball in the yard will be a priority for him in ‘’24. Lowering his career ERA of 5.17 would also be beneficial. Keeping the baseball in the yard would help that.
Aiden May is a transfer from the University of Arizona. Aiden started 16 games for the Wildcats in 2023 after spending his freshman year pitching for Pima C.C.
STATS: At Arizona, May threw 75.1 innings allowing 97 hits (10.4/9) and 57/53 runs (6.55/9). He totaled 77 strikeouts (9.18/9), issued 33 walks and had 9 HBP (5.03/9). May gave up 29 XBH including 10 home runs. KEY STATS: BB:K Ratio 1:1.8, Opponents BA ..314, WHIP was 1.73, ERA was 6.33 and Opponents OB% was .396.
May is a converted outfielder from his days at Sandia High School in Albuquerque. He touches the mid 90’s with his fastball and has a four pitch mix resulting in a flurry of strike outs. His secondary offerings have been characterized as being “nasty”. A high ceiling pro prospect that needs better command of the strike zone – at Arizona, he allowed an average of 15.7 baserunners per 9 innings. Sharpening up his location will allow him to miss more barrels and reduce his WHIP to a level commensurate with his pitching ability. Better sequencing and getting into favorable counts might be a good starting point for throwing fewer pitches and pitching with men on base every inning. .
A COMPARTATIVE VIEW OF KEY STATS FROM 2023:
ERA: Hunter 1.01, Kmatz 4.71, May 6.33
WHIP: Hunter 1.01, Kmatz 1.35, May 1.73
BB:K RATIO: Hunter 1:2.54, May 1:1.83, Kmatz 1:1.80
OPPOSING BA: Hunter .217, May .314, Kmatz .331
OPPONENTS OB%: Hunter .282, Kmatz .331, May .396
The final question is, how dominant do OSU’s assumed starters have to be in 2024? With the power-packed Beaver offense poised to shatter a few Oregon State records, is it more of a question of keeping us in the game for 5 to 7 innings as opposed to needing a low run pitching performance every game? Certainly the front line would need to have emerged by the time of a “Super” or in Omaha. Some of the analysis done by the writers suggest getting into our Bullpen early will be a team strength. It also needs mentioning that working with a good lead from this batting order and with the OSU defense working behind you, pitching gets easier and actually becomes fun.
Oregon State began Fall Practice with 22 pitchers listed on the roster. From top to bottom it is a talented group, an impressive mix of experienced veterans and promising freshman. I think there is no question that Coach Dorman has a Legion of Arms at his disposal. The Beavs should have the best bullpen in the PAC-12 if not one of the best in the country. During his time at OSU, coach Dorman has demonstrated a preference for using multiple relievers working one and two inning appearances. Opposing hitters are constantly having to adjust to a new arm over the final innings of a game. He also likes the “opposite match up” with certain hitters L vs R and R vs L. If the final roster has 18 or more pitchers listed, he will have many weapons at his disposal to exercise his wishes. They can all pitch.
If there is any concern with the Beaver’s pitching staff, it would be with the starting rotation we will see in weekend series once conference play begins. Since we won’t know what the coaches have in mind in the way of a weekend rotation until the season unfolds, for the purpose of discussion we can assume we see Aiden May, Jared Hunter and Jacob Kmatz. On paper, we don’t see a Friday night “Ace” this year. Recent Friday night “automatic W” pitchers like Rasmussen, Thompson, Heimlich, Chamberlain and Hjerpe are no longer on campus.
A second question would be, if one of the starters is injured or struggles, are Keljo, Lawson or Jiminez be ready to step into a weekend starter’s role?
For comparative purposes, lets break the pitching metrics down into 9 inning occurrences. I’ll start with Jaren because the primary question surrounding him has to do with recovery from last year’s arm injury. If the nature of the injury was ever revealed, I missed it but it was obviously serious enough to limit his season by more than 50%. If he is fully recovered and healthy, he should be very effective. Hunter’s stats are easily the best of the three pitchers we’ll look at here. In limited innings in 2023, his numbers were very good.
STATS: Jaren threw 32.2 innings last year. He allowed 26 Hits (7.15/9), 13/11 Runs (3.50/9), 28 K (7.73/9), 7 BB and 4 HBP (3.37/9). He allowed 6 XBH (3 HR). KEY STATS: BB:K Ratio = 1:2.54, Opponents BA .217, his WHIP was 1.01, ERA was 3.03, Opponents OB% was .282.
Jaren throws a variety of pitches with exceptional command. His ball movement and location of pitches is a clinic. He uses the entire zone, changes speed, and induces a high % of ground ball outs. Jaren has in scouting vernacular, “pitchability”. He is smart and methodical. Oregon had a fairly good offense in 2022 and ’23 and they couldn’t touch Hunter – he was baffling and beat them twice. In summary, excellent metrics - so, how’s the arm?
Jacob Kmatz has been a proven starter for two years with the Beavers. He has started 29 games and has compiled a 13-6 record heading into his Junior year. Like Jaren Hunter, Kmatz also missed time due to injury In 2023.
STATS: When healthy, Jacob threw 72.2 innings allowing 72 Hits (9.0/9) and 40/38 Runs (4.71/9). Kmatz racked up 61 strike outs (7.57/9), issued 26 walks and hit 6 batters (3.79/9). Jacob was touched for 27 XBH and gave up 13 home runs. KEY STATS: BB:K Ratio = 1:1.8, Opponents BA .258, his WHIP was 1.35. ERA was 4.71, and Opponents OB% was .331.
Kmatz relies on a low 90’s fastball and slider to accumulate outs. He’s poised, competitive and has proven he can escape jams when they occur. Sometimes Jacob has a tendency to be hit hard and cutting down the extra base hits and keeping the ball in the yard will be a priority for him in ‘’24. Lowering his career ERA of 5.17 would also be beneficial. Keeping the baseball in the yard would help that.
Aiden May is a transfer from the University of Arizona. Aiden started 16 games for the Wildcats in 2023 after spending his freshman year pitching for Pima C.C.
STATS: At Arizona, May threw 75.1 innings allowing 97 hits (10.4/9) and 57/53 runs (6.55/9). He totaled 77 strikeouts (9.18/9), issued 33 walks and had 9 HBP (5.03/9). May gave up 29 XBH including 10 home runs. KEY STATS: BB:K Ratio 1:1.8, Opponents BA ..314, WHIP was 1.73, ERA was 6.33 and Opponents OB% was .396.
May is a converted outfielder from his days at Sandia High School in Albuquerque. He touches the mid 90’s with his fastball and has a four pitch mix resulting in a flurry of strike outs. His secondary offerings have been characterized as being “nasty”. A high ceiling pro prospect that needs better command of the strike zone – at Arizona, he allowed an average of 15.7 baserunners per 9 innings. Sharpening up his location will allow him to miss more barrels and reduce his WHIP to a level commensurate with his pitching ability. Better sequencing and getting into favorable counts might be a good starting point for throwing fewer pitches and pitching with men on base every inning. .
A COMPARTATIVE VIEW OF KEY STATS FROM 2023:
ERA: Hunter 1.01, Kmatz 4.71, May 6.33
WHIP: Hunter 1.01, Kmatz 1.35, May 1.73
BB:K RATIO: Hunter 1:2.54, May 1:1.83, Kmatz 1:1.80
OPPOSING BA: Hunter .217, May .314, Kmatz .331
OPPONENTS OB%: Hunter .282, Kmatz .331, May .396
The final question is, how dominant do OSU’s assumed starters have to be in 2024? With the power-packed Beaver offense poised to shatter a few Oregon State records, is it more of a question of keeping us in the game for 5 to 7 innings as opposed to needing a low run pitching performance every game? Certainly the front line would need to have emerged by the time of a “Super” or in Omaha. Some of the analysis done by the writers suggest getting into our Bullpen early will be a team strength. It also needs mentioning that working with a good lead from this batting order and with the OSU defense working behind you, pitching gets easier and actually becomes fun.
