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Post by 411500 on Jan 16, 2024 10:34:20 GMT -8
I have completed my 2nd viewing of each game, and have a few observations in their regard.
But first, I openly admit that watching tape (live TV & replay) is not the same as watching the games live, and actually sitting in Gill to take in the games first hand...
I've scouted live, and I've scouted via film study - and watching the game live has lots of advantages. But so does tape - - especially the ability to watch a single play over and over to break down exactly what happened. Enough preamble.
Positive observations:
1. This team is more athletic than meets the eye, and certainly more athletic than I previously thought. Hunter, AJ, Schuler and Dom (and, of course, Reagan) are athletic by every basketball standard. Ironically, 3 of these players are Frosh, so that may be good fortune, or it might be by design. In today's recruiting world, it's hard to say.
2. The defense is better than I previously thought. For me it's hard to figure out Rueck's defense (even thoughI have been breaking down defenses for 25 years) because I have trouble seeing how his players fill their court positions. But, however, they do it, they are good at it. At this stage of the season the defense is considerably better than the offence - and it probably will remain that way all season. It is on defense where the athleticism of the above name players shines most noticeably. With the exception of Reagan Beers, who really is the only elite offensive player on the roster.
3. The team meets all the requirements for "team" play, for "team-first" mentality. This is a big deal. It will not win game unto itself, but it greatly increases the chances. I have not noticed a single player whose game interferes with, or takes away from, a teammate's game. That is rare in college basketball.
Not-so-Positve Observations:
1. This team is still offensively challenged, with the except of Reagan Beers. If she missed 6 games, for example, I think the Beavs would struggle to average 55 points per game. Schuler is beginning to show offensive flashes - which is good. AJ, in my view, is a serious disappointment on the offensive end of things. Her athleticism, verticality, driving ability, pull up jumper, yield far less point production than makes sense. That AJ doesn't get 2 or 3 offensive boards per game is, to me, a head scratcher.
2. The team still has no real pure shooter, and I do not see one emerging. Blacklock is on the verge, but she doesn't get enough floor time to truly test her prospects as a premiere shooter. Gardiner has moments and flashes, but not enough to quality as an excellent shooter.
3. The team is in need of a power-forward. Rees is good enough, but brings little "power" to the power-forward position.
Ballpark Summary:
The Beavs are a solid team that plays excellent defense and average offense. The post game is great with Beers in the picture - otherwise, not good. They lack offensive rebounding considering the athleticism of Beers and AJ....
It's still early in the conference season so it's unknown if this team can win on the road. If it can, I think everyone will need to upgrade their assessment of this year's team. At the moment I'm a "believer" by habit, but not yet from evidence!! Over and out.
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by beaverstever on Jan 16, 2024 10:57:01 GMT -8
Appreciate the breakdown 411500.
On the pure shooters, I really thought that would be a strength of this roster, given TvO's first season, and Blacklock and Hansford's shooting form; I really like the release of both of those shooters. Lily is shooting a very respectable 43%, and Rees is the only other 3 pt shooter over 40%. And given the weak early schedule, those stats don't reflect reality vs. Pac-12 defenses. I still think this team has pure shooters, but pure shooters doesn't translate to shooters that necessarily can shoot well when contested (or not even be able to get shots off).
On offense, I am also a bit puzzled. Timea should be a player that can go get a bucket whenever she wants. That should largely be true for AJ and eventually Paurova - the size and athleticism is there, but the confidence and/or comfort within the offensive system isn't there for them. I do believe this team has a lot more upside on offense than it's shown to date. And the defense is much better than I expected; I did not think this roster would be great defensively, but they've gotten there. I do believe Rueck focuses on perfecting the defense over the offense as the priority, and we historically have seen the offense peak late. I recall watching Leah's senior season in particular where they went from a pretty ineffective offense at the start of the Pac-12 season to one that looked almost unstoppable by the end of the year (that is, until they ran into South Carolina, who had a tremendous size and athleticism advantage).
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Post by grayman on Jan 16, 2024 11:29:56 GMT -8
Agree on AJ...I have mentioned a few times that she is very inconsistent on offense. The fact that she is capable of really good double-figure games makes it stand out all the more. For whatever reason, she just shows flashes of scoring ability and then fades or disappears completely. It's really too bad considering she's a player that can add a much-needed midrange threat to this offense.
I have a hard time seeing Rueck give minimal time to Blacklock (even though he has been giving her a little more lately). I think he's keeping a legitimate offensive threat on the bench because she probably isn't as far along as others on defense.
I know that there's a lot of depth on this team but Blacklock could easily be that extra scoring option that the Beavers really need. And she's proven in that area. In OSU's final six games of the season last year, Blacklock scored 12 against UW, then started the last five. After a slow start vs. WSU with 6, she went on to score 14, 22, 15 and 12 to close out the season. Hard to see that potential offensive production on the bench so much. Personally, I think he needs to find more time for her, particularly when the team is struggling to find offense.
Other than that, it's hard to find too much to criticize. Rueck needed a legit point guard and he brought in two. He needed another frontcourt player and he brought in Rees. He needed more speed and he found Paurova and Shuler and Hunter. And the defense has been great.
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Post by beaveragain on Jan 16, 2024 11:38:59 GMT -8
Mostly I agree with your excellent observations, but here are my thoughts.
I believe that your confusion on the defense is caused by the many new players confusion on where they are supposed to be. In the past the players were taught to go to the basket and look around and figure it out. They don't do that anymore and I have admit I can't figure out what they are doing any more. I don't know if this is a change of SR's design or this is Aleah's creation. My suspicion is it's Aleah's.
On the lack of a shooter, my hope is that TVO is getting her self confidence back and she will become more of a scorer. She certainly knows the team needs her to do so to become a top team. Also Gardiner is an excellent mid range shooter, and why she's limiting herself to three's is odd. Don't know if that is her choice or the coaches. But I'd be happy if she took way more mid range shots.
You don't consider Timea to be a power forward? 13th ranked defensive rebounder/40 minutes in the country. Seems pretty power to me.
AJ isn't going to get offensive rebounds because of her job defensively. She immediately takes off to make sure there aren't any fast breaks. What I don't understand is her lack of defensive rebounds, although again, she is supposed to try to go for the fast break when she can so she also doesn't have much opportunity for rebounds.
An nice oddity for this year that I'd attribute to Aleah is the lob pass. In the past, despite SR's fondness for tall posts, the team has been terrible at making lob passes into the post. But this year they are doing a much better job of lobbing the pass into Beers.
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Jan 16, 2024 11:57:50 GMT -8
This is the best defensive team that I can remember ever seeing. The three freshmen excel on that end of the court, especially Kennedie. In the ua game Rueck had all three of them on the court at the same time, plus two sophomores, as time was running out. I thought to myself that he was crazy and that it wasn't going to go well. But damn if I wasn't wrong again. They are working so well together, their switching was seamless. Another thing I noticed was that Rueck had enough confidence in his defense that he allowed them to play instead of fouling. It worked out against ua.
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Post by grayman on Jan 16, 2024 12:22:00 GMT -8
Mostly I agree with your excellent observations, but here are my thoughts. I believe that your confusion on the defense is caused by the many new players confusion on where they are supposed to be. In the past the players were taught to go to the basket and look around and figure it out. They don't do that anymore and I have admit I can't figure out what they are doing any more. I don't know if this is a change of SR's design or this is Aleah's creation. My suspicion is it's Aleah's. On the lack of a shooter, my hope is that TVO is getting her self confidence back and she will become more of a scorer. She certainly knows the team needs her to do so to become a top team. Also Gardiner is an excellent mid range shooter, and why she's limiting herself to three's is odd. Don't know if that is her choice or the coaches. But I'd be happy if she took way more mid range shots.You don't consider Timea to be a power forward? 13th ranked defensive rebounder/40 minutes in the country. Seems pretty power to me. AJ isn't going to get offensive rebounds because of her job defensively. She immediately takes off to make sure there aren't any fast breaks. What I don't understand is her lack of defensive rebounds, although again, she is supposed to try to go for the fast break when she can so she also doesn't have much opportunity for rebounds. An nice oddity for this year that I'd attribute to Aleah is the lob pass. In the past, despite SR's fondness for tall posts, the team has been terrible at making lob passes into the post. But this year they are doing a much better job of lobbing the pass into Beers. I know you weren't responding to me here and I totally agree about TVO and Timea as far as their potential on offense. I just think TVO needs to find her long range game (and she seems to be getting it back), the kind of fearless bombs away approach that she brought early in her career. In the meantime, I really like how well she works with Beers in the half court. Gardiner is a little more confusing to me because she often seems to choose what would usually be considered a more tentative approach on offense, which could be explained that maybe she's still affected by her injury, yet her overall play is far from tentative. I hope she adds more to her offensive game as the season goes on. As for Blacklock, my point is that IMO she is the closest to bringing instant offense to the court on a regular basis. Just seems like maybe they could use a little more of that. I just don't see her defense as such a drawback that it would outweigh getting more points on the board in some games. |
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Post by beavsteve on Jan 16, 2024 12:22:08 GMT -8
Over the years, one of the weaknesses I’ve seen in the Beavers defense has been a susceptibility to guards coming around screens to get mid-range jumpers in the key about 8 feet from the hoop. Many teams have taken advantage of that against us (Stanford stands out in my memory as making the most of it). Our defense seems to rely upon a person coming up from behind the shooter to interfere with (or block) the shot, which often has resulted in fouls; I think we are doing better at this now because we have some taller guards, but it is still a susceptibility. It is also something I’d like to see us take advantage of more on offense (as AJ does with her midrange, but we need more of it - yes, it would be great to see Timea get involved with that, as she is very capable). Regarding Timea and the comments above, she definitely has the body and skills for a power forward, but I think the point being made is that she isn’t utilizing those skills around the basket enough (which power forwards, by definition, do).
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Post by 411500 on Jan 16, 2024 13:02:25 GMT -8
beaveragain writes: "You don't consider Timea to be a power forward? 13th ranked defensive rebounder/40 minutes in the country. Seems pretty power to me."
beavsteve wrote a good response to your point in the post above - but I will add this: To me, Timea is half a power-forward. Yes on defense, no on offence.
She has a good body for power-play offense - but she virtually never uses it.
If you watch film closely you might be surprised how often she gets knocked to the floor each game, and how often she fails to protect and muscle the ball on offence.
In my view, she's soft on offence, but a rock on defense. Something of a puzzlement.
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by rgeorge on Jan 16, 2024 13:22:32 GMT -8
beaveragain writes: "You don't consider Timea to be a power forward? 13th ranked defensive rebounder/40 minutes in the country. Seems pretty power to me." beavsteve wrote a good response to your point in the post above - but I will add this: To me, Timea is half a power-forward. Yes on defense, no on offence. She has a good body for power-play offense - but she virtually never uses it. If you watch film closely you might be surprised how often she gets knocked to the floor each game, and how often she fails to protect and muscle the ball on offence. In my view, she's soft on offence, but a rock on defense. Something of a puzzlement. GO BEAVS!! Most good PF don't spend 75% of their time on the offensive end at the 3 pt line. She has rebounded well. Defense and overall offensive production... not what I'd expect from such a highly rated player with the build to do so much more. But... she has time to develop that part of her game. |
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2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,795 
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Jan 16, 2024 13:40:20 GMT -8
I haven't been able to re-watch games this season as much as I have in the past, but I would add a couple observations:
- this team seems to be less adept at blocking out on defensive rebounds, perhaps by design, but I don't see as much "put a body on a body" conscious rebounding positioning going on. In the past, we have always had a anomaly among our "smalls" - a guard sized player with forward/center sized rebounding stats (think Mik or Jamie) - perhaps the "body on body" had more to do with giving the 'anomaly' the best shot at the ball....
- this team also seems to be less into "choreography" on BLOBs and offensive sets. Remember the center "assuming the position" at the FT line as a screener? Or these intricate weaves to get the open baseline midrange jumper on inbound?
- this team seems to have better ability than teams past to press break leading to an easy lay-in. A couple of the full court plays with no dribbles have been beautiful. And if there is dribbling, it is usually that first guard that gets the inbound pass - which is what I attribute the improvement to - both Dono and KS have really good straight line speed, so if they get an open path, they can jet to a clear area for the pass to half court or top of key triggering the pass to that easy lay in.
Anyway, just my $0.02. And if I give you a penny for your thoughts, someone somewhere will make a cent. [obscure Steven Wright joke].
Go Beavers!
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Post by lotrader on Jan 16, 2024 14:50:32 GMT -8
Couldn't resist piling on:
+ I agree coaches need to increase Adlee's minutes. Adlee isn't just an outside 3-point slayer. Adlee isn't afraid of driving to the hoop as she demonstrated in the ASU game. Adlee's defense is improving and don't see Adlee as much of a defense liability as she was early in the season. Adlee's 3-point shot is also looking solid these last few games
+ Cal has hurt us last couple seasons with their lightning fast guards. But with Dono, Dom, and Kennedie this concerns me less.
+ Stanford is a great rebounding team. We will need to rebound like crazy vs Stanford. I can see Sela getting minutes this weekend
+ Let's not forget that Timea missed most of last season. The more game minutes Timea gets the more excited I am about her growing contribution to the team
+ TvO is not going to get away with some of the passes at Stanford that TvO made in the ASU game. TvO needs to care more about turnovers this weekend. And our guards are going to have to be very crisp with their entry passes to Raegan as Stanford is tall & athletic
+ Going to be a great measuring stick for our 3 freshmen this weekend.
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Post by rmancarl on Jan 16, 2024 16:47:52 GMT -8
Couple thoughts on what's been mentioned:
Defense--This team is all about defense. Offense is improving, but defense will keep them in games for now.
Timea--Super talented but so far inconsistent. The 2nd half of the Oregon game will show you how dangerous she can be.
3pt shooting--The team has been decent at hitting the 3's, but they have lacked that shooter like Kat, Aleah, or Syd. AJ, Tamia, and Kelsey have all been good, but I think the hope lies in Talia returning to form, Lily continuing to improve, and Adlee looking like she did the end of last season. If one or two of those happen, this team will be dangerous from three point land. All three of those players (Talia, Lily, and Adlee) have seen their 3pt percentage rise recently. Lily now has the best 3pt percentage on the team, and Adlee is showing flashes of last season.
Now, on what hasn't been mentioned:
I know SR always pushes "we are family" and talks often about recruiting the right type of players for his program but I think this may be the best 'family' group of players he's had. These players really seem to like each other and have bought in on the importance of defense. Watching the sidelines, the numerous videos, post game conferences, twitter videos and player comments, have convinced me this team enjoys each other. In the victory celebration after the Arizona game the hug between Raegan and Timea, and then Talia jumped in, was special to see. As was Aleah walking over to Kennedie and giving her a hug. It's obvious to me that Raegan and Timea are especially close. I'm hoping that closeness will keep them all at Oregon State next season. We may find out in a few months that I was very wrong.
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Post by rmancarl on Jan 17, 2024 9:38:41 GMT -8
Hey, I forgot to mention one thing I've noticed. Kennedie and Raegan have good report rapport on the court. I think it's a tribute to Kennedie picking up plays quickly, which was something SR mentioned in one of the interviews. The Beavs have developed the inside play pretty well with all the guards getting familiar with when/where to get the ball into Raegan's hands, and Raegan has really improved from last season on getting the ball back out to the guards/wings.
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Post by markwbeaver on Jan 17, 2024 9:55:09 GMT -8
Hey, I forgot to mention one thing I've noticed. Kennedie and Raegan have good report rapport on the court. I think it's a tribute to Kennedie picking up plays quickly, which was something SR mentioned in one of the interviews. The Beavs have developed the inside play pretty well with all the guards getting familiar with when/where to get the ball into Raegan's hands, and Raegan has really improved from last season on getting the ball back out to the guards/wings. Excellent point. I think there was a stretch in the second half of the ASU game when Kennedie and Reagan successfully played pick and roll three possessions in a row. |
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Post by beaverstever on Jan 17, 2024 11:16:49 GMT -8
Hey, I forgot to mention one thing I've noticed. Kennedie and Raegan have good report rapport on the court. I think it's a tribute to Kennedie picking up plays quickly, which was something SR mentioned in one of the interviews. The Beavs have developed the inside play pretty well with all the guards getting familiar with when/where to get the ball into Raegan's hands, and Raegan has really improved from last season on getting the ball back out to the guards/wings. Excellent point. I think there was a stretch in the second half of the ASU game when Kennedie and Reagan successfully played pick and roll three possessions in a row. This is the biggest difference I see with Raegan vs. what we saw with Taylor Jones. Taylor was a back hole with the ball, she would never kick the ball back out. That hasn't changed, she has a whole 3 assists on the season at Texas. Shaylee Gonzales is shooting 45% from 3, you'd think she'd realize there's a huge value in her helping their inside-out dynamic. Raegan on the other hand has the 3rd most assists (32) of the starters, while still being the primary scorer/shot-taker. That helps everybody out, including making it much harder for the defense to just assume collapsing on her once she has the ball will work out well. |
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