cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598 
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Post by cake on Dec 6, 2023 14:31:31 GMT -8
One of the posters in this thread is saying pretty much the identical things he said about the Friday night guy in 2022. Unproven. Not Friday night stuff. Bad stats. Cooper did okay for not being a Friday night guy. May has Friday starter stuff. We will see if he has the command. I expect the results to be far better than the much improved USC defense in football. To be fair, nothing about Hjerpe's performance in 2021 screamed '1st round pick' or 'definite Friday night guy'. No shot on him, he wasn't really proven yet.
I think it's fair to say we don't have a proven Friday night guy.
I think we've got about 6 or 8 Saturday night guys and somebody is going to step up. Somebody always does.
There are 3 freshmen who I believe will be competing for big innings this year, it's not impossible that we have another Kevin Able type guy who emerges halfway through the season. But even if that happens, it's still not proven yet.
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cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598
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Post by cake on Dec 6, 2023 14:44:43 GMT -8
Yes... definitely have no true Friday night guy. I'm a bit leery of those that think a transfer/new pitching coach will suddenly change a pitcher. Especially if they consider him a Friday night guy. Also, it's more about how a pitcher performed in those innings than the % that returns. I generally agree with that, but I think with Aiden May, he was coming off an injury that kept him out all of his freshman season, it can take some time to get the command back.
Plus, Arizona is brutal on pitching. but sometimes all you need is a different pitching coach to make a big step forward. I could see it happening.
Or, I could see it not happening.
But he's got a chance to be really, really good.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Dec 6, 2023 14:55:06 GMT -8
Like half our best pitchers last year were frosh or coming up from CC ranks. I'm guessing they might improve.
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 6, 2023 17:10:25 GMT -8
Pretty much "half of our best pitchers" were listed above. Stellar in moments, but certainly not consistent, not outstanding overall.
Hence, the original question!
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Post by richard44 on Dec 6, 2023 17:38:12 GMT -8
If you just base your prediction off last year, we don’t have a Hjerpe, Rasmussen, Heimlech Friday night guy. Last year, all three starters had ERAs around or north of 4.50, which is terrible. But guys develop and improve, and I believe we have a good handful of Freshmen and Sophomores with the stuff to have really high ceilings. And like I said in an earlier post, we are incredibly deep with a wide variety of talents and pitching styles.
May will be interesting, because everywhere you read you see that he has really good stuff. Now it will come down to can he convert that into quality and consistent production?
D1 baseball seems to be really high on OSU this year, and generally they are one of the best in the game at evaluating college baseball team talent.
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Post by 56chevy on Dec 6, 2023 17:40:52 GMT -8
In 2019 fall ball as an incoming frosh, Hjerpe was just dominant. If my memory is correct, in his first three innings of scrimmage action there were no hits, no walks and 6 strike outs. He didn't show Friday night stuff until the ball left his hand. Frisch was pretty good as well right out of the gate. Not sure we've got that on this roster. If so, look out!
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Dec 6, 2023 20:31:35 GMT -8
If you just base your prediction off last year, we don’t have a Hjerpe, Rasmussen, Heimlech Friday night guy. Last year, all three starters had ERAs around or north of 4.50, which is terrible. But guys develop and improve, and I believe we have a good handful of Freshmen and Sophomores with the stuff to have really high ceilings. And like I said in an earlier post, we are incredibly deep with a wide variety of talents and pitching styles. May will be interesting, because everywhere you read you see that he has really good stuff. Now it will come down to can he convert that into quality and consistent production? D1 baseball seems to be really high on OSU this year, and generally they are one of the best in the game at evaluating college baseball team talent. Cooper was 5.25 in 12 innings as a frosh and 4.21 in 77 innings Soph. Pretty terrible. |
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 6, 2023 21:09:11 GMT -8
Predictions?
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Dec 8, 2023 10:23:00 GMT -8
Most years it seems like pitching is kind of the question mark. There have been outliers, obviously.
Overall, pretty good mix of experience, and talented youth. Keljo is exciting obviously. Looking forward to seeing Kmatz and Mundt back on the bump. Hopefully this May kid can lock down a rotation spot. Lawson, and Lattery are two guys who have been around that id like to see take the next step. It's their time to shine. Can't wait to see DeCremer. He's got a live arm for sure.
Nice thing for our staff is they will have a ridiculous lineup backing them. That should give them confidence that they don't need to win many 1-0 kind of games.
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Post by easyheat on Dec 8, 2023 22:50:39 GMT -8
From a coach's perspective, the question isn't "how good is your pitching?", but rather how good does it need to be?
Pitching is a comparative issue to hitting - Run prevention v run production. If you have a potent offense, to some degree it diminishes your need for potent pitching. A discussion of great pitching accompanying great hitting is more about run differential than just the pitching component itself.
Oregon State currently has at least 21 pitchers on the 44 man roster. Stack rating them 1 through 21 shows a minimum or modest drop-off as you progress through the ranking. The Beavers have a depth of good pitching but are without a great pitcher (Paul Skenes, Kumar Rocker, etc). On a scale of 1-5, the Beavs don't have any 5's or 1's. Based on past performance, the range is really more 2.5 to 4.
The real question is, can Smith, Guerra, Bazzana, Hainline, Caraway, Macias, McDowell, Kasper, Turley, Weber, Trosky and Krieg score enough runs to offset a good but not great pitching effort? Every coach wants an Ace (Razz, Luke or Coop) going on Friday night but does this team absolutely need it to win? With few exceptions, probably not.
Oregon State's weekend rotation will be more than adequate, first because they are capable and have a deep bullpen behind them, and second because they have an explosive offense that should produce crooked numbered run support.
Analyze the run potential, then ask the question. Just how good does the pitching have to be? Is it Inadequate? Adequate? or More than adequate?
Through the 56 game schedule, OSU's pitching should be plenty good enough. Assuming no disruption and with some development, that should also hold true in Regional play.
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Post by beavaristotle on Dec 9, 2023 13:30:33 GMT -8
The best teams in any sport can beat you in more than one way. Our best baseball teams could slug you or shut you out. We have some good arms and I’m sure there will be development with experience , but judging by fall ball we will go as far as our bats carry us ( which could be somewhere in Nebraska). I worry about running into an ace in an elimination situation, can we win a 1-0 or 2-1. Great problem to have to worry about
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Post by 56chevy on Dec 9, 2023 14:49:20 GMT -8
I don't know...the problem with "we will go as far as our bats will take us" is that hitting usually comes and goes in streaks. Pitching, speed and defense don't usually take days off. Yet if I go back to 2018, our starting pitching, our defense and even our baserunning took some days off and we still won that thing. Our bats and our bullpen didn't take any days off. Quite a reminder of just how talented that group was. Hope to be comparing this group to the 2018 Champs when we get to May.
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Post by easyheat on Dec 9, 2023 16:38:16 GMT -8
That is the point - the Beavers can beat you in a variety ways.
The Beavers have good team speed with SB capability and excellent baserunning. Bazzana, McDowell, Turley, Macias and Hainline can run and there is some veteran speed on the bench with Talt, Trosky and Reeder. This team has the composition of an ideal "inside the diamond" game. The ability to manufacture runs via small ball is there.
The Beavers have hitters one through nine. There are no easy outs and the bottom of the order is weaponized. There is home run power potential at every position including the DH. Run scoring expectancy is high for this team
When was the last time the Beavers didn't play sparkling defense? Like, never?
So, how good do the Beaver pitchers need to be? Can Hunter, Kmatz, May, Jiminez, and others fashion an ERA and WHIP that allows the potent OSU offense to prevail? I suspect the Beaver pitching is just one more way to beat you - it's better than folks are giving it credit for and there is lots of it.
The Texas run in February will be a good early test helping Coach Dorman ramp up for PAC-12 play.
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Post by ricke71 on Dec 15, 2023 10:58:50 GMT -8
Just noticed that Rhett Larson entered the 2024 Portal (on Dec. 6). Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere on this board.
In all the discussions on Casey's Corner, of pitching roles for the upcoming season, his name has rarely come up, at any rate.
His 2023 PAC-12 stat line tells the story: 4-2/3 IP....BAA of .429....WHIP of 2.14
Excellent decision on his part, I'd say.
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Post by beaverinsider211 on Dec 16, 2023 15:27:16 GMT -8
The problem with the staff over the last couple years has been finding that guy with "swing and miss” stuff. Hjerpe gave us that in his tenure but there wasn't much behind him in terms of guys "missing bats". I like the depth of this year's staff. Just need to find guys the correct role. From what I saw this fall we definitely have some more guys with wicked stuff.
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