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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 12, 2023 14:17:49 GMT -8
Here's what I think will happen.
A deal/settlement is reached before the Nov 14th trial date, hopefully sooner, unless the Pac 2 decides to really go after the traitors (time is just about too short to believe that'll happen).
The reverse merger happens AND the new PAC remains a P5 conference for at least 2 years, with the conference fighting to stay there. I think geography will help them keepthat status longterm.
Nevarrez will be announced as commissioner.
Some kind of media deal comes up within a few months. Not as lucrative as what has been turned down, but not a disaster for OSU & WSU and significantly improved for the former MWC members.
There will likely be a tiered payout distribution, based on conference standings or Bowl/Playoff money? How that distribution looks (bottom half gets lower distribution than top half? Schools keep bulk of Bowl/Playoff money?) is up to question.
People will decide Barnes is secretly a genious - Until we have to make the next big coaching hire.
Stanford and Cal will end up really really regretting having gone to the ACC rather than staying and helping the PAC survive.
I could change my opinion tomorrow.
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 12, 2023 14:58:08 GMT -8
Here's what I think will happen. A deal/settlement is reached before the Nov 14th trial date, hopefully sooner, unless the Pac 2 decides to really go after the traitors (time is just about too short to believe that'll happen). The reverse merger happens AND the new PAC remains a P5 conference for at least 2 years, with the conference fighting to stay there. I think geography will help them keepthat status longterm. Nevarrez will be announced as commissioner. Some kind of media deal comes up within a few months. Not as lucrative as what has been turned down, but not a disaster for OSU & WSU and significantly improved for the former MWC members. There will likely be a tiered payout distribution, based on conference standings or Bowl/Playoff money? How that distribution looks (bottom half gets lower distribution than top half? Schools keep bulk of Bowl/Playoff money?) is up to question. People will decide Barnes is secretly a genious - Until we have to make the next big coaching hire. Stanford and Cal will end up really really regretting having gone to the ACC rather than staying and helping the PAC survive. I could change my opinion tomorrow. First, I don't think it is a coincidence he gets an extension right now. I think it is a sign of good faith he has helped navigate these waters very well from leadership. Second, All I know is we will probably find out within the next month if there is any truth to those Big-12 rumors. Third, I generally agree with the most likely outcome is a mediated agreement that OSU/WSU control the Pac-12 after August 1, 2024 and it is repopulated with the MWC members. I think to get there we sacrifice money would probably could of held on to, but do it to avoid protracted legal battles. I think what the traitors want is OSU/WSU to agree to shut it all down, and divide it up and they may be willing to pay off OSU/WSU to get it. Give them a big chunk of money and tell them to just join the MWC... To me, that is their most ideal outcome. I don't think the schools bite. I think OSU/WSU would rather give up money and assets out of the Pac to hold on to it rather than get money to leave it behind. Just my thought. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Oct 12, 2023 16:19:51 GMT -8
I have no idea how this whole thing will play out, but I agree 100% that Stanford and Call will regret their move (which Tara called a nightmare at media day). I also think the ACC will regret it as well.
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Post by avidbeaver on Oct 12, 2023 17:27:48 GMT -8
Here's what I think will happen. A deal/settlement is reached before the Nov 14th trial date, hopefully sooner, unless the Pac 2 decides to really go after the traitors (time is just about too short to believe that'll happen). The reverse merger happens AND the new PAC remains a P5 conference for at least 2 years, with the conference fighting to stay there. I think geography will help them keepthat status longterm. Nevarrez will be announced as commissioner. Some kind of media deal comes up within a few months. Not as lucrative as what has been turned down, but not a disaster for OSU & WSU and significantly improved for the former MWC members. There will likely be a tiered payout distribution, based on conference standings or Bowl/Playoff money? How that distribution looks (bottom half gets lower distribution than top half? Schools keep bulk of Bowl/Playoff money?) is up to question. People will decide Barnes is secretly a genious - Until we have to make the next big coaching hire. Stanford and Cal will end up really really regretting having gone to the ACC rather than staying and helping the PAC survive. I could change my opinion tomorrow. First, I don't think it is a coincidence he gets an extension right now. I think it is a sign of good faith he has helped navigate these waters very well from leadership. Second, All I know is we will probably find out within the next month if there is any truth to those Big-12 rumors. Third, I generally agree with the most likely outcome is a mediated agreement that OSU/WSU control the Pac-12 after August 1, 2024 and it is repopulated with the MWC members. I think to get there we sacrifice money would probably could of held on to, but do it to avoid protracted legal battles. I think what the traitors want is OSU/WSU to agree to shut it all down, and divide it up and they may be willing to pay off OSU/WSU to get it. Give them a big chunk of money and tell them to just join the MWC... To me, that is their most ideal outcome. I don't think the schools bite. I think OSU/WSU would rather give up money and assets out of the Pac to hold on to it rather than get money to leave it behind. Just my thought. Joining the MWC isn't the most ideal situation. That is the worst possible outcome in my opinion. Rebuild or reverse merger are way ahead of that option |
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Post by angrybeaver67 on Oct 12, 2023 17:37:47 GMT -8
If the Pac-12 is being repopulated by the MWC - isn’t that the Reverse Merger you mention and many been talking about?
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Post by avidbeaver on Oct 12, 2023 17:57:14 GMT -8
If the Pac-12 is being repopulated by the MWC - isn’t that the Reverse Merger you mention and many been talking about? Reverse merger would be dissolving the MWC and all of their teams becoming part of the Pac. Rebuilding the Pac would be choosing a certain number of teams in the MWC and inviting them to join the Pac. The only thing with that is the buyout to leave the MWC. It drops to nothing in two years but would the Pac 2 want to wait two years? If not they would have to help the schools with the buyouts. Rebuilding is a little more of a problem than a reverse merger. |
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Post by angrybeaver67 on Oct 12, 2023 18:04:59 GMT -8
If the Pac-12 is being repopulated by the MWC - isn’t that the Reverse Merger you mention and many been talking about? Reverse merger would be dissolving the MWC and all of their teams becoming part of the Pac. Rebuilding the Pac would be choosing a certain number of teams in the MWC and inviting them to join the Pac. The only thing with that is the buyout to leave the MWC. It drops to nothing in two years but would the Pac 2 want to wait two years? If not they would have to help the schools with the buyouts. Rebuilding is a little more of a problem than a reverse merger. Oh, I see what you are saying. It could be either way with how he said it. Pretty sure he really meant Reverse Merger… And I agree this is the best way (Reverse Merger) for us to not wind up in a pile of crud. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 12, 2023 18:06:39 GMT -8
First, I don't think it is a coincidence he gets an extension right now. I think it is a sign of good faith he has helped navigate these waters very well from leadership. Second, All I know is we will probably find out within the next month if there is any truth to those Big-12 rumors. Third, I generally agree with the most likely outcome is a mediated agreement that OSU/WSU control the Pac-12 after August 1, 2024 and it is repopulated with the MWC members. I think to get there we sacrifice money would probably could of held on to, but do it to avoid protracted legal battles. I think what the traitors want is OSU/WSU to agree to shut it all down, and divide it up and they may be willing to pay off OSU/WSU to get it. Give them a big chunk of money and tell them to just join the MWC... To me, that is their most ideal outcome. I don't think the schools bite. I think OSU/WSU would rather give up money and assets out of the Pac to hold on to it rather than get money to leave it behind. Just my thought. Joining the MWC isn't the most ideal situation. That is the worst possible outcome in my opinion. Rebuild or reverse merger are way ahead of that option I'm thinking he's saying the "traitors" want OSU and WSU to just join the WMC so the conference dissolves and they can split the proceeds. |
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Post by angrybeaver67 on Oct 12, 2023 18:24:36 GMT -8
Teach me to be having a glass of wine and not paying closer attention to what was written… 😁 Yes, of course that is what The Traitorous 10 want.
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Post by avidbeaver on Oct 12, 2023 18:36:58 GMT -8
Joining the MWC isn't the most ideal situation. That is the worst possible outcome in my opinion. Rebuild or reverse merger are way ahead of that option I'm thinking he's saying the "traitors" want OSU and WSU to just join the WMC so the conference dissolves and they can split the proceeds. I see that now after I reread the post. I am old and need someone to lead me the right direction every so often. |
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Post by irimi on Oct 12, 2023 20:43:04 GMT -8
Here's what I think will happen. A deal/settlement is reached before the Nov 14th trial date, hopefully sooner, unless the Pac 2 decides to really go after the traitors (time is just about too short to believe that'll happen). The reverse merger happens AND the new PAC remains a P5 conference for at least 2 years, with the conference fighting to stay there. I think geography will help them keepthat status longterm. Nevarrez will be announced as commissioner. Some kind of media deal comes up within a few months. Not as lucrative as what has been turned down, but not a disaster for OSU & WSU and significantly improved for the former MWC members. There will likely be a tiered payout distribution, based on conference standings or Bowl/Playoff money? How that distribution looks (bottom half gets lower distribution than top half? Schools keep bulk of Bowl/Playoff money?) is up to question. People will decide Barnes is secretly a genious - Until we have to make the next big coaching hire. Stanford and Cal will end up really really regretting having gone to the ACC rather than staying and helping the PAC survive. I could change my opinion tomorrow. First, I don't think it is a coincidence he gets an extension right now. I think it is a sign of good faith he has helped navigate these waters very well from leadership. Second, All I know is we will probably find out within the next month if there is any truth to those Big-12 rumors. Third, I generally agree with the most likely outcome is a mediated agreement that OSU/WSU control the Pac-12 after August 1, 2024 and it is repopulated with the MWC members. I think to get there we sacrifice money would probably could of held on to, but do it to avoid protracted legal battles. I think what the traitors want is OSU/WSU to agree to shut it all down, and divide it up and they may be willing to pay off OSU/WSU to get it. Give them a big chunk of money and tell them to just join the MWC... To me, that is their most ideal outcome. I don't think the schools bite. I think OSU/WSU would rather give up money and assets out of the Pac to hold on to it rather than get money to leave it behind. Just my thought. Your third point bothers me. I’ve been trying to look at this fairly (when I look at it all). I just can’t see any reason for the Pac 2 to cave. After all, we have USC and UCLA for setting precedent in this matter. And the law loves precedent. I don’t see a lot of negotiating room for the traitors. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Oct 12, 2023 21:24:39 GMT -8
Here's what I think will happen. A deal/settlement is reached before the Nov 14th trial date, hopefully sooner, unless the Pac 2 decides to really go after the traitors (time is just about too short to believe that'll happen). The reverse merger happens AND the new PAC remains a P5 conference for at least 2 years, with the conference fighting to stay there. I think geography will help them keepthat status longterm. Nevarrez will be announced as commissioner. Some kind of media deal comes up within a few months. Not as lucrative as what has been turned down, but not a disaster for OSU & WSU and significantly improved for the former MWC members. There will likely be a tiered payout distribution, based on conference standings or Bowl/Playoff money? How that distribution looks (bottom half gets lower distribution than top half? Schools keep bulk of Bowl/Playoff money?) is up to question. People will decide Barnes is secretly a genious - Until we have to make the next big coaching hire. Stanford and Cal will end up really really regretting having gone to the ACC rather than staying and helping the PAC survive. I could change my opinion tomorrow. Funny. You spelled genius wrong. Sorry for pointing that out. |
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2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837 
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Oct 12, 2023 21:53:17 GMT -8
And I think a few years further out, the reverse merger MWC turned into new look Pac-12 is lauded for preserving regionality and celebrated for hanging onto what is the essence of college sports. Ideally we have some cool CBS linear/on-air + Apple/Amazon TV streaming deal that let's us also be forward looking in delivering the sports with new business models.
One or two of the Traitorous-10 do OK in their new conference alignments, but nothing spectacular.
Most of the T10 struggle, either to win, fill stadiums and/or to make sense of all the travel for their non-football sports. Much whining and gnashing of teeth commences, especially from Cal and Stanford, who want back into the new look Pac-12.
Go Beavers!
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Post by clydebeav on Oct 12, 2023 22:37:34 GMT -8
If the Pac-12 is being repopulated by the MWC - isn’t that the Reverse Merger you mention and many been talking about? Reverse merger would be dissolving the MWC and all of their teams becoming part of the Pac. Rebuilding the Pac would be choosing a certain number of teams in the MWC and inviting them to join the Pac. The only thing with that is the buyout to leave the MWC. It drops to nothing in two years but would the Pac 2 want to wait two years? If not they would have to help the schools with the buyouts. Rebuilding is a little more of a problem than a reverse merger. Regarding the rebuild idea, the Mountain West buyout never actually drops to nothing. It’s always 3 times the media payout of the previous year if a team gives a year or more notice. Double if they give less than a year’s notice. It doesn’t expire when the media deal runs out. It remains triple the media payout of the year before so it’s going to be $17 million minimum and may even go up in the future once they get a new deal (assuming the new deal is higher). They’ve really made it difficult for teams to leave. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 12, 2023 22:48:53 GMT -8
Reverse merger would be dissolving the MWC and all of their teams becoming part of the Pac. Rebuilding the Pac would be choosing a certain number of teams in the MWC and inviting them to join the Pac. The only thing with that is the buyout to leave the MWC. It drops to nothing in two years but would the Pac 2 want to wait two years? If not they would have to help the schools with the buyouts. Rebuilding is a little more of a problem than a reverse merger. Regarding the rebuild idea, the Mountain West buyout never actually drops to nothing. It’s always 3 times the media payout of the previous year if a team gives a year or more notice. Double if they give less than a year’s notice. It doesn’t expire when the media deal runs out. It remains triple the media payout of the year before so it’s going to be $17 million minimum and may even go up in the future once they get a new deal (assuming the new deal is higher). They’ve really made it difficult for teams to leave. There is no buyouts if they dissolve the conference. No media penalty. No MWC team(s) are going to leave, or be left out. The initial option, the only one that makes sense to all 14 parties is the MWC votes to dissolve to accept a reverse merger into the new Pac14. No buyout, but no media deal unless CBS wants to keep West Coast inventories. Or, Apple is still lurking. |
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