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Post by ag87 on Sept 23, 2023 21:11:57 GMT -8
I need to get this off my chest as I'm reconciling my bets. I lost today, not bad, but I'm pissed at myself. I bet on the Nicholls at Tulane game. I've found the FCS games have softer lines. Anyway I bet the over, some at 57 and some at 57-1/2. Tulane won 36-7. But I'm looking at my notes now and my model said to bet the under. Somehow I got it screwed up in my mind. Painful. And speaking of painful, I had the under on the Sacramento at Idaho game. Under 57-1/2. It's 27-27 late. Idaho kicks the game winning field goal with ONE FREAKING SECOND left on the clock. I win!! But no, Sacramento State fools around on the kickoff, fumbles in their own end zone and Idaho recovers and gets six more points. DJU is the least of my worries.
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Post by fridaynightlights on Sept 24, 2023 5:52:18 GMT -8
Studies have shown that approximately 90% of the people who gamble on sports over a longer period of time end up losing money. Of course, most gamblers think they are part of the 10%, it is the other guys who are the losers. You may win over the short term, but eventually the odds are probably going to catch up with you. It is phenomenal the explosion of sports gambling that has taken place in society the past 10 years or so. You can't turn around now without gambling being promoted and then right after the promotion they often give out a number to call if you think you have a gambling problem.
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Post by beavaristotle on Sept 24, 2023 7:29:56 GMT -8
Robert Deniro as Sammy Rothstein in Casino “ the trick is to keep them playing, in the end we’ll get it all”
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Post by ag87 on Sept 24, 2023 7:52:47 GMT -8
On-line is difficult. First with the explosion of betting sites, advertising et al from a few years ago, betting lines are more difficult. The house still puts dumb stuff out there but it gets adjusted in a hurry. 2nd, the books don't like losing. And because of the computer systems for each client they know exactly a customer's win/loss records and betting patterns. The sites don't shut you out, but they will reject a bet. More often they adjust the line sometimes individually. For example, if the total number is 52. I'll attempt make a bet of over 52. The message comes back "the number is now 53.5." That's only for the client making that bet. If I bet the under, the line would be 50.5. And because of federal regulations it's very difficult to use a different name. So the idea is to take little bites. Spread it around over many different books. Vegas is king. Most casinos don't blink about a basketball bet of 500 between, for example, Robert Morris and Youngstown. Spread that around and you can bet real money.
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Post by ag87 on Sept 24, 2023 7:55:56 GMT -8
Robert Deniro as Sammy Rothstein in Casino “ the trick is to keep them playing, in the end we’ll get it all” Ive only seen a Joe Pesci type character when I was being backed off a blackjack table at Balleys about 25 years ago. That got me started trying to figure out how to bet sports profitably. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Sept 24, 2023 8:56:23 GMT -8
I need to get this off my chest as I'm reconciling my bets. I lost today, not bad, but I'm pissed at myself. I bet on the Nicholls at Tulane game. I've found the FCS games have softer lines. Anyway I bet the over, some at 57 and some at 57-1/2. Tulane won 36-7. But I'm looking at my notes now and my model said to bet the under. Somehow I got it screwed up in my mind. Painful. And speaking of painful, I had the under on the Sacramento at Idaho game. Under 57-1/2. It's 27-27 late. Idaho kicks the game winning field goal with ONE FREAKING SECOND left on the clock. I win!! But no, Sacramento State fools around on the kickoff, fumbles in their own end zone and Idaho recovers and gets six more points. DJU is the least of my worries. If you wish to continue throwing away your money by gambling on football/sports, just send how much you intend to bet to me instead on every Friday. Then you won't have to worry about what happens in some obscure game, and I promise I'll spend it wisely.  |
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 24, 2023 9:02:36 GMT -8
Studies have shown that approximately 90% of the people who gamble on sports over a longer period of time end up losing money. Of course, most gamblers think they are part of the 10%, it is the other guys who are the losers. You may win over the short term, but eventually the odds are probably going to catch up with you. It is phenomenal the explosion of sports gambling that has taken place in society the past 10 years or so. You can't turn around now without gambling being promoted and then right after the promotion they often give out a number to call if you think you have a gambling problem. Most sports bettors are also highly delusional. They'll rarely EVER admit they are part of the 90% over the long term. And, those I know typically use all the various bets to try to change their luck. And, it is just that, however the other common trait is that they are some "wise guy" with some innate knowledge to know inside info or how to game the system! I have to chuckle when all the betting posts appear each week. |
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Post by ag87 on Sept 24, 2023 10:01:13 GMT -8
 Studies have shown that approximately 90% of the people who gamble on sports over a longer period of time end up losing money. Of course, most gamblers think they are part of the 10%, it is the other guys who are the losers. You may win over the short term, but eventually the odds are probably going to catch up with you. It is phenomenal the explosion of sports gambling that has taken place in society the past 10 years or so. You can't turn around now without gambling being promoted and then right after the promotion they often give out a number to call if you think you have a gambling problem. Most sports bettors are also highly delusional. They'll rarely EVER admit they are part of the 90% over the long term. And, those I know typically use all the various bets to try to change their luck. And, it is just that, however the other common trait is that they are some "wise guy" with some innate knowledge to know inside info or how to game the system! I have to chuckle when all the betting posts appear each week. Says the smartest guy in the room
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 24, 2023 13:26:43 GMT -8
Most sports bettors are also highly delusional. They'll rarely EVER admit they are part of the 90% over the long term. And, those I know typically use all the various bets to try to change their luck. And, it is just that, however the other common trait is that they are some "wise guy" with some innate knowledge to know inside info or how to game the system! I have to chuckle when all the betting posts appear each week. Says the smartest guy in the room Since you used the terminology... says the guy who is smart enough not to think you can beat a system designed for the public to lose... the vast majority of the time. But, I don't care what others do with their money. Your $ do with it what you please. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Sept 24, 2023 14:29:24 GMT -8
I used to bet college football, until I finally noticed that, more times than not, come settle up day, the runner for the bookie was walking into my office with a smile on his face and his hand out with the palm facing up.
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Post by atownbeaver on Sept 25, 2023 8:40:32 GMT -8
I need to get this off my chest as I'm reconciling my bets. I lost today, not bad, but I'm pissed at myself. I bet on the Nicholls at Tulane game. I've found the FCS games have softer lines. Anyway I bet the over, some at 57 and some at 57-1/2. Tulane won 36-7. But I'm looking at my notes now and my model said to bet the under. Somehow I got it screwed up in my mind. Painful. And speaking of painful, I had the under on the Sacramento at Idaho game. Under 57-1/2. It's 27-27 late. Idaho kicks the game winning field goal with ONE FREAKING SECOND left on the clock. I win!! But no, Sacramento State fools around on the kickoff, fumbles in their own end zone and Idaho recovers and gets six more points. DJU is the least of my worries. lines are softer in college because chaos reigns in college. I am not going to tell a grown ass man what to do with his money, just don't forget what you are fundamentally doing: gambling. It is, at all times, a gamble. not a sure thing. never that. Have a budget and all that. Anyways. I had a three leg parlay yesterday in the NFL for +440: Dolphins to cover at +6.5 (LOL...) the under on the titans/cleveland game (39.5 I think...) and I bet the over on the Vikings/LAC (54). The first two had hit, but the last game was not panning out to the be the shoot out it was suppose to be, so in the middle of the 3rd I took the buyout option for around +100. a double up is better than nothing! Then the 4th comes and I start sweating that, thinking aww s%#t, It was gonna hit, what was I doing? LAL scores on their trick play, Vikings have the long bomb to Jefferson, and now there is like 6 minutes to play and we are at 28-24. 52 points. Somebody is kicking a FG at least here. Dammit... Nope, through a comedy of errors, turnovers, turnovers on down, 28-24 holds through 4 possession changes and 6+ minutes of game clock. The over does not hit. I don't have a moral to this story, other than it is all just a gamble. it is all luck my dude. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Sept 25, 2023 8:59:23 GMT -8
Vikings should have kicked a FG at 28-24, get within 28-27 with three minutes left. They get the ball back with a short field after some SD stupidity but need a TD instead of a FG and lose. Got no points out of two possessions inside the SD 24-yard line in the last three minutes.
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