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Post by korculabeav on Sept 23, 2023 8:57:51 GMT -8
…..often than not to better teams. We all watch hundreds of even thousands of college football games. Many of those are where a superior opponent gets into a competitive dogfight with a significant but talented underdog. I think of the Hole/TTtech game. I think of OSU olaying UW close in 1993. I think of LSU/OSU. I saw NC State/Virginia last night. Many of these types of games the superior team will pull it out like NCState did last night when the game was 21-21 with a minute left and NC State drove down far enough to kick the winning field goal.
What fascinates me about these types of games is what prevents the underdog to seize the game enough to upset. Watching Michigan-Rutgers right now, it is tied 7-7 in the 2nd. Rutgers was down by UM’s 35 with 4th and 6. Rutgers go for it. They ran an idiotic play that Michigan stuffed and the talent for Rutgers did not have the speed to get the 1st down. That example right there seems to be the difference in how underdog play calling and lesser talent makes running plays so much harder that can kill an upset.
What are your observations in these types of games?
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Post by jefframp on Sept 23, 2023 9:04:11 GMT -8
Poor in game coaching decisions. Example: I still think Colorado State should have gone for 2 points in the first overtime with the Prime team last week. And I said it to my wife in real time. They had momentary momentum in their favor at that point. No killer instinct!
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Sept 23, 2023 9:36:41 GMT -8
Margin for error is smaller with less talent. The better talent has an advantage every second of every play. The lesser talent has to co Pete with execution and technique.
You will also see that less talented players that are loaded with junior and senior talent have more success. I would out TCU last year as an extreme of less talented but great execution by upperclassmen heavy roster.
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 23, 2023 9:41:53 GMT -8
Underdog is a media/betting term not a psyche. Teams know who's more talented, but know that many such teams still win. But, a teams mentality does enter into it when all the sudden they can win.
Inferior teams are just that... less talent, not as deep, coaches typically not in a ton of close meaningful games. To me in those potential game defining/winning moments (there will be several) one team has been there done that. The other makes the situation bigger than it is. Often too much emotion results in an overthrow, a move before the catch, penalty of anxiety, missed assignments/poor communication. As with CSU they get to the key decision and go conservative. Why? Trying to not let emotion cloud their thinking? Over thinking? No confidence in their 2pt plans?
I don't think there is any easy way to define why underdogs suddenly defeat themselves. It seems to be very game specific and generally seems more about the better team not playing well and their opponent taking advantage. Until they can't.
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Post by korculabeav on Sept 23, 2023 9:51:24 GMT -8
Underdog is a media/betting term not a psyche. Teams know who's more talented, but know that many such teams still win. But, a teams mentality does enter into it when all the sudden they can win. Inferior teams are just that... less talent, not as deep, coaches typically not in a ton of close meaningful games. To me in those potential game defining/winning moments (there will be several) one team has been there done that. The other makes the situation bigger than it is. Often too much emotion results in an overthrow, a move before the catch, penalty of anxiety, missed assignments/poor communication. As with CSU they get to the key decision and go conservative. Why? Trying to not let emotion cloud their thinking? Over thinking? No confidence in their 2pt plans? I don't think there is any easy way to define why underdogs suddenly defeat themselves. It seems to be very game specific and generally seems more about the better team not playing well and their opponent taking advantage. Until they can't. This post sums up this topic’s “why” very well. For me personally, I get frustrated when I see a score where an underdog lost by 1 pt, lost in 2 OTs or lost by the ol’ FG with little time left. All the mistakes an underdog makes as you summarize well above that are often preventable blows an opportunity for an underdog to take a step forward in their program development or re-development. |
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Post by korculabeav on Sept 23, 2023 9:53:36 GMT -8
Poor in game coaching decisions. Example: I still think Colorado State should have gone for 2 points in the first overtime with the Prime team last week. And I said it to my wife in real time. They had momentary momentum in their favor at that point. No killer instinct! This aspect of a contributing factor to underdog loss is far more infuriating than bad player execution or lack of talent. Even younger coaches should have a playbook for situations like of their team is in position to pull an upset. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Sept 23, 2023 10:57:11 GMT -8
Poor in game coaching decisions. Example: I still think Colorado State should have gone for 2 points in the first overtime with the Prime team last week. And I said it to my wife in real time. They had momentary momentum in their favor at that point. No killer instinct! They should have gone for it on 4th-and-2 instead of punting with two minutes left. Win the game right there by making one play instead of counting on your defense to make 7 or 8 plays to win. |
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