MLB DRAFT: MAKING THE CASE FOR FORRESTER
Jul 5, 2023 13:31:27 GMT -8
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Post by chinmusic on Jul 5, 2023 13:31:27 GMT -8
Breaking down Garrett's draft prospects.
REPLACEMENT:
The 2023 MLB Amateur Draft will begin about 116 hours from now in Seattle. The draft always has always has some measure of impact on Oregon State’s baseball program. Roster players drafted unexpectedly, and the unpredictability of recruit selections and signings can disrupt your roster significantly. Today’s college coaches are unable to shape their roster until the completion of the draft and the window closing on the Transfer Portal. A roster can be severely weakened or a recruiting class damaged by MLB Draft decisions. In discussing Garrett Forrester, I anticipate he will begin his future in professional baseball. Other than losing a core player on three very good Beaver teams over the past 3 seasons, where does that leave us at first base next year? Promising freshman Jacob Krieg brings some offensive punch, Mason Guerra could move to 1B and incoming recruit Evan Gustafson catches but could play first base. Of course, the possibility of a JC or Portal transfer also has to be considered in a replacement discussion.
VALUATION:
I will share a concern I have. From what information I can gather (not from scouts), I have the sense Garrett Forrester is somewhat under-valued in this draft. I don’t feel he is being given enough credit for excelling in several important areas of the game. Those areas are first, his mature approach to hitting and his advanced discipline with the zone, and second, his ability to project raw power to all fields. I would have liked to have seen more written about that in his various draft profiles.
An examination of Garrett’s three-year career stats at Oregon State is revealing and commendable.
DEPENDEBLE:
Garrett started 173 of 177 games in his OSU career. He missed 4 games in 2021 with an injury. Garrett played in 97.6% of all OSU games during the 2021-22-23 seasons. Pick your adjective - reliable, dependable, accountable, responsible, durable. He is strong and when playing a 142 to 162 game professional schedule, durability becomes very important.
HITTING FOR AVEERAGE:
Garrett accumulated 208 hits in 738 official at bats during his career, good for a .325 career BA. In consecutive years at OSU, he hit .299, .332 and .341. He improved his BA every year. Included in those 208 hits were 31 doubles, 1 triple and 26 home runs. He posted 319 career total bases.
GETING ON BASE:
Garrett reached base frequently. In addition to the 208 base hits, he walked as well as any player in the PAC-12 and tied with Travis for the most in the PAC in 2023. In his career, his advanced feel for the zone allowed him to draw 156 base on balls and be hit by pitch 27 times (183 free passes). He averaged 1.05 BB/HBP per game during his OSU career.
Garrett’s 208 hits and 183 passes via BB/HBP plus 5 ROE recorded, allowed Garrett to reach base safely 396 times which enabled him to score 128 runs in his career. He reached base 43.1% of the time during his career 921 PA. His career OBP is an impressive .430. His high rate of contact coupled with his plate discipline and understanding of the strike zone resulted in a loud OBP metric that is unmistakable - Garrett Forrester frequently gets on base.
CONTACT HITTING:
Garrett puts the ball in play. With a career BA of .325 and BABIP of .347, he moved runners with base hits and sacrifices. He totaled 144 RBI during his time in Corvallis including several game winning efforts. If you needed to move a runner with a bunt, score a runner with a fly ball or hit, Garrett proved to be reliable. Garrett struck out 138 times during his three years. His BB:K ratio was unusual, 1.33:1. Very few collegians draw as many BB as they have K’s. Garrett struck out only 17% of his 921 PA’s and had one of the lowest chase rates in college baseball at 7.3%.
HITTING WITH POWER:
Garrett has more power potential. He improved his HR totals every season at OSU. He hit 7 as a freshman, 9 as a sophomore and 10 as a Junior. He is first a contact hitter and if the pitcher gives him something he can Barrel, he’ll drive it deep. He has a simple swing with natural lift and good extension. In MLB’s draft prospect rankings, Forrester is ranked the 13th best contact hitter among college hitters.. If asked to hit more HR’s he appears to be capable. The Beaver’s Analytical Group (Das Beavers) recorded 8 Home Runs hit by Garrett, the average distance was 404’. Included in that sample were tape measure shots of 444’ and 447’. They also recorded 15 Trackman Exit Velos from his bat at an average of 105.2 mph. including 3 readings in excess of 110 mph. MLB ranks Forrester’s average velo as 19th among all draft prospects in ‘23. Those two metrics of distance and exit velocity are clearly demonstrative of raw power that can leave any yard in baseball.
OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY:
Garrett’s offensive efficiency is evidenced by his slash lines:
2021: .299/ .435/ .475 with a 910 OPS
2022: .332/ .480/ .498 with a 978 OPS
2023: .341/ 427/ .522 with a 949 OPS
Career Slash: .325/ .429/ .511 with a 940 OPS
DEFENSE:
Defensively, Garrett played first base at OSU and did a commendable job. He is athletic and moves well around the bag and his good footwork enables him to extend his range. He excels at fielding errant throws and “picking” the tough hops. He has a strong and accurate arm that is borderline plus. He shows a good glove and makes the difficult plays. He does a good job initiating and executing double plays. Has experience paying 3B and catching but may be limited professionally to a corner infield position. At 6 feet, he lacks the ideal length the MLB model presents and that may be a concern for some clubs. Garrett’s 3 year fielding statistics:
2021: Garrett had 139 chances, made 120 putouts, had 17 assists, 2 errors, and 10 double plays. Fielding % was .986
2022: He had 524 chances, made 499 PO, 21 asst, 4 errors, and 42 DP. His fielding % was .992
2023: Garrett had 436 chances, had 402 PO, 32 asst, 2 errors and 30 DP. His fielding % was .995l
Career: Garrett had 1,099 chances, and committed only 8 errors.
MAKEUP:
You are witness - use your own narrative here.
On Monday, MLB will begin the second and following rounds of the draft. I look forward to hearing the Donkey’s name being called before the 5th round begins.
REPLACEMENT:
The 2023 MLB Amateur Draft will begin about 116 hours from now in Seattle. The draft always has always has some measure of impact on Oregon State’s baseball program. Roster players drafted unexpectedly, and the unpredictability of recruit selections and signings can disrupt your roster significantly. Today’s college coaches are unable to shape their roster until the completion of the draft and the window closing on the Transfer Portal. A roster can be severely weakened or a recruiting class damaged by MLB Draft decisions. In discussing Garrett Forrester, I anticipate he will begin his future in professional baseball. Other than losing a core player on three very good Beaver teams over the past 3 seasons, where does that leave us at first base next year? Promising freshman Jacob Krieg brings some offensive punch, Mason Guerra could move to 1B and incoming recruit Evan Gustafson catches but could play first base. Of course, the possibility of a JC or Portal transfer also has to be considered in a replacement discussion.
VALUATION:
I will share a concern I have. From what information I can gather (not from scouts), I have the sense Garrett Forrester is somewhat under-valued in this draft. I don’t feel he is being given enough credit for excelling in several important areas of the game. Those areas are first, his mature approach to hitting and his advanced discipline with the zone, and second, his ability to project raw power to all fields. I would have liked to have seen more written about that in his various draft profiles.
An examination of Garrett’s three-year career stats at Oregon State is revealing and commendable.
DEPENDEBLE:
Garrett started 173 of 177 games in his OSU career. He missed 4 games in 2021 with an injury. Garrett played in 97.6% of all OSU games during the 2021-22-23 seasons. Pick your adjective - reliable, dependable, accountable, responsible, durable. He is strong and when playing a 142 to 162 game professional schedule, durability becomes very important.
HITTING FOR AVEERAGE:
Garrett accumulated 208 hits in 738 official at bats during his career, good for a .325 career BA. In consecutive years at OSU, he hit .299, .332 and .341. He improved his BA every year. Included in those 208 hits were 31 doubles, 1 triple and 26 home runs. He posted 319 career total bases.
GETING ON BASE:
Garrett reached base frequently. In addition to the 208 base hits, he walked as well as any player in the PAC-12 and tied with Travis for the most in the PAC in 2023. In his career, his advanced feel for the zone allowed him to draw 156 base on balls and be hit by pitch 27 times (183 free passes). He averaged 1.05 BB/HBP per game during his OSU career.
Garrett’s 208 hits and 183 passes via BB/HBP plus 5 ROE recorded, allowed Garrett to reach base safely 396 times which enabled him to score 128 runs in his career. He reached base 43.1% of the time during his career 921 PA. His career OBP is an impressive .430. His high rate of contact coupled with his plate discipline and understanding of the strike zone resulted in a loud OBP metric that is unmistakable - Garrett Forrester frequently gets on base.
CONTACT HITTING:
Garrett puts the ball in play. With a career BA of .325 and BABIP of .347, he moved runners with base hits and sacrifices. He totaled 144 RBI during his time in Corvallis including several game winning efforts. If you needed to move a runner with a bunt, score a runner with a fly ball or hit, Garrett proved to be reliable. Garrett struck out 138 times during his three years. His BB:K ratio was unusual, 1.33:1. Very few collegians draw as many BB as they have K’s. Garrett struck out only 17% of his 921 PA’s and had one of the lowest chase rates in college baseball at 7.3%.
HITTING WITH POWER:
Garrett has more power potential. He improved his HR totals every season at OSU. He hit 7 as a freshman, 9 as a sophomore and 10 as a Junior. He is first a contact hitter and if the pitcher gives him something he can Barrel, he’ll drive it deep. He has a simple swing with natural lift and good extension. In MLB’s draft prospect rankings, Forrester is ranked the 13th best contact hitter among college hitters.. If asked to hit more HR’s he appears to be capable. The Beaver’s Analytical Group (Das Beavers) recorded 8 Home Runs hit by Garrett, the average distance was 404’. Included in that sample were tape measure shots of 444’ and 447’. They also recorded 15 Trackman Exit Velos from his bat at an average of 105.2 mph. including 3 readings in excess of 110 mph. MLB ranks Forrester’s average velo as 19th among all draft prospects in ‘23. Those two metrics of distance and exit velocity are clearly demonstrative of raw power that can leave any yard in baseball.
OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY:
Garrett’s offensive efficiency is evidenced by his slash lines:
2021: .299/ .435/ .475 with a 910 OPS
2022: .332/ .480/ .498 with a 978 OPS
2023: .341/ 427/ .522 with a 949 OPS
Career Slash: .325/ .429/ .511 with a 940 OPS
DEFENSE:
Defensively, Garrett played first base at OSU and did a commendable job. He is athletic and moves well around the bag and his good footwork enables him to extend his range. He excels at fielding errant throws and “picking” the tough hops. He has a strong and accurate arm that is borderline plus. He shows a good glove and makes the difficult plays. He does a good job initiating and executing double plays. Has experience paying 3B and catching but may be limited professionally to a corner infield position. At 6 feet, he lacks the ideal length the MLB model presents and that may be a concern for some clubs. Garrett’s 3 year fielding statistics:
2021: Garrett had 139 chances, made 120 putouts, had 17 assists, 2 errors, and 10 double plays. Fielding % was .986
2022: He had 524 chances, made 499 PO, 21 asst, 4 errors, and 42 DP. His fielding % was .992
2023: Garrett had 436 chances, had 402 PO, 32 asst, 2 errors and 30 DP. His fielding % was .995l
Career: Garrett had 1,099 chances, and committed only 8 errors.
MAKEUP:
You are witness - use your own narrative here.
On Monday, MLB will begin the second and following rounds of the draft. I look forward to hearing the Donkey’s name being called before the 5th round begins.
