Prep Baseball Report has published their final Mock Draft Report on the first 5 rounds of the 2023 MLB Draft. Two Beaver recruits are in play with PBR, Trent Caraway and Paul Wilson.
Caraway is projected to be selected with the 4th pick in the 2nd round by the Cincinnati Reds. That slot value is $1,990,280.00.
Wilson is projected to be selected by the Miami Marlins with the 11th pick of the 3rd round. That slot value is $916,000.00.
OPINION: As one might expect, PBR tends to elevate the high school prospects a bit more than other mock drafts. Our two guys are really good but both may be projected a little earlier than the actual picks will unfold. Some excellent college guys not being slotted correctly IMHO. They have Noble Meyer being picked #7 in the draft - a high school arm is usually considered a little risky at that early part of the draft's first round. We'll see.
Last Edit: Jun 25, 2023 0:11:44 GMT -8 by chinmusic
High School pitchers are fraught with risk but quite a few do end up pitching in the major leagues, so there is that. Wilson's ranking history has vacillated from being tabbed a late first rounder 2 years ago to being a 3rd or 4th rounder at one point this spring.
This draft is heavy with exciting college arms and many clubs view the college pitcher as more of a known than the prep pitcher. That could push the high schoolers deeper in the draft. Wilson has several things that appeal to the Scouting community - his bloodlines, his frame's potential for more size, he's a southpaw, and has a developed 3 pitch mix that includes a "sweeper" that has produced a lot of whiff. There may be concerns with a drop in velo this year and the occasional fleeting command.
Given what we have seen, some physical issue shouldn't be surprising. College or Pro doesn't alter the fact that Paul Wilson can really pitch.
"The only thing predictable in the MLB Draft is that it will be unpredictable". And . . . sometimes it can be wildly unpredictable.
"Signability" is a major factor in every draft. Fans are given a set of projections by baseball websites that publish draft rankings or Mock drafts. Like the fans, those sites are usually not privy to what a player and his family are thinking. Fans are left to speculate whether a draftee will sign or attend college. We can know a lot about the player but little about what he's thinking.
Caraway is the prime example and so was Turley last year. Given all the player data, Caraway was a sure-fire 2nd or 3rd round pick. What we didn't know was his strong lean to playing college ball at Oregon State which has now become obvious. So, heck yes, there was some gloom and doom, why wouldn't there be? - we were faced with losing our top recruit.
Every scouting report I saw on him mentioned that he was an outstanding student, so there was that to give us a small hint that he values academics.
We are a selfish lot - we want our super-star recruits (Turley, Caraway, Swanson, Neyens, et al.) to have great big league careers, but not until they have provided us with thrills and chills at Goss Stadium for several years.