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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2023 13:07:57 GMT -8
Oregon State advances to a semifinal with:
1. A win over Arizona State AND
A. A Cal win over Stanford OR
B. Stanford wins out
Basically root for Cal to take down Stanford tonight and then have Oregon State beat Arizona State. That gives Oregon State the wildcard, because Oregon would win Pool A with Stanford 0-2 or Stanford would win Pool A with a win.
If Stanford beats Cal, Oregon State must beat Arizona State. Then, root for Stanford to beat Oregon.
Also, Parker should check with me before asserting things that are not true.
Finally, Kmatz tomorrow?
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Post by clydebeav on May 24, 2023 13:38:45 GMT -8
This was also pointed out by Tamatrix in the game thread. Obviously the Beavers winning tomorrow is essential, but it's nice to know that there is more than one scenario where they advance with a win.
Coming into the tourney, I was thinking (like Parker) that Stanford would need to go 2-0 if the Beavers lost a game. If Cal wins today, there are going to be Beaver fans who think that eliminates the Beavers because of Mike Parker's mistake.
Go Cal! (today)
Go Beavs! (tomorrow)
Go Stanford! (tomorrow)
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2023 14:00:25 GMT -8
This was also pointed out by Tamatrix in the game thread. Obviously the Beavers winning tomorrow is essential, but it's nice to know that there is more than one scenario where they advance with a win. Coming into the tourney, I was thinking (like Parker) that Stanford would need to go 2-0 if the Beavers lost a game. If Cal wins today, there are going to be Beaver fans who think that eliminates the Beavers because of Mike Parker's mistake. Go Cal! (today) Go Beavs! (tomorrow) Go Stanford! (tomorrow) All credit to tamatrix then. I missed it in my brief scroll through of the game thread. |
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Post by tamatrix on May 24, 2023 14:42:43 GMT -8
No credit needed...love that you started a new thread Wilky!
For some reason this one is super hard for lots of people to get their heads around so loved the new thread and summary for all.
GO BEARS
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 24, 2023 15:35:06 GMT -8
Can't root for hole to win the group.....so go furd
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Post by clydebeav on May 24, 2023 15:47:41 GMT -8
I don't think Stanford's game against Cal affects Oregon's chances of winning their pool. If they lose to Stanford tomorrow, they are eliminated and if they beat Stanford tomorrow, they advance. Just plan to root for Stanford tomorrow.  |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2023 15:52:17 GMT -8
Can't root for hole to win the group.....so go furd I suppose that I could have worded it better. Oregon State advances to the Semifinal with a win over Arizona State AND 1. A California win over Stanford OR
2. A Stanford win over Oregon
Also, no one has taken my bait, but Kmatz starts tomorrow? His pitches play up, but he has thrown well in Arizona. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 24, 2023 15:54:44 GMT -8
Can't root for hole to win the group.....so go furd I suppose that I could have worded it better. Oregon State advances to the Semifinal with a win over Arizona State AND 1. A California win over Stanford OR
2. A Stanford win over Oregon
Also, no one has taken my bait, but Kmatz starts tomorrow?So if Furd loses to tonight but wins tomorrow we get WC if we beat ASU....if Furd loses tonight, and tomorrow we get WC over Furd cuz they went 0-2.....correct? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2023 15:58:15 GMT -8
I suppose that I could have worded it better. Oregon State advances to the Semifinal with a win over Arizona State AND 1. A California win over Stanford OR
2. A Stanford win over Oregon
Also, no one has taken my bait, but Kmatz starts tomorrow?So if Furd loses to tonight but wins tomorrow we get WC if we beat ASU....if Furd loses tonight, and tomorrow we get WC over Furd cuz they went 0-2.....correct? Yes. In the second scenario, we get the added bonus of missing Furd in the WC. If Furd goes 2-0, a 1-1 Oregon State would play Furd in the Semifinal. |
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Post by clydebeav on May 24, 2023 16:00:50 GMT -8
Can't root for hole to win the group.....so go furd I suppose that I could have worded it better. Oregon State advances to the Semifinal with a win over Arizona State AND 1. A California win over Stanford OR
2. A Stanford win over Oregon
Also, no one has taken my bait, but Kmatz starts tomorrow? His pitches play up, but he has thrown well in Arizona.I would assume Katz tomorrow. He pitched the Friday game last weekend, right? The Beavers need the win so he seems like the logical choice. I would have assumed they'd start someone else if they'd won today and didn't need tomorrow's win. The more I think about it, the more important I think it is for Cal to pull off the upset today. It not only puts the Beavers destiny in their control with a win tomorrow, it also gives Stanford incentive to beat Oregon tomorrow. If Stanford wins today, they automatically advance, correct? It would be dumb for them to start their best available starter against Oregon then. So by Stanford winning today, Oregon's chances of winning tomorrow increase and the chances of the Beavers advancing decreases even with a win over Arizona State. I'm definitely overthinking this. Still, go Cal! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2023 16:19:30 GMT -8
I suppose that I could have worded it better. Oregon State advances to the Semifinal with a win over Arizona State AND 1. A California win over Stanford OR
2. A Stanford win over Oregon
Also, no one has taken my bait, but Kmatz starts tomorrow? His pitches play up, but he has thrown well in Arizona.I would assume Katz tomorrow. He pitched the Friday game last weekend, right? The Beavers need the win so he seems like the logical choice. I would have assumed they'd start someone else if they'd won today and didn't need tomorrow's win. The more I think about it, the more important I think it is for Cal to pull off the upset today. It not only puts the Beavers destiny in their control with a win tomorrow, it also gives Stanford incentive to beat Oregon tomorrow. If Stanford wins today, they automatically advance, correct? It would be dumb for them to start their best available starter against Oregon then. So by Stanford winning today, Oregon's chances of winning tomorrow increase and the chances of the Beavers advancing decreases even with a win over Arizona State. I'm definitely overthinking this. Still, go Cal! Yeah, Kmatz pitched the Friday game last weekend. I don't know who would be the starter, if Oregon State had won today, but it probably would not have been Kmatz. Yes, if Stanford wins today, they automatically advance. Plus, it gives Stanford the opportunity to basically select their opponent. If Oregon State wins tomorrow, Stanford would play Oregon State with a second win. If Stanford loses, once again assuming an Oregon State win, they would play the USC-Washington winner. Now, they did the best against Oregon State. They barely beat Washington, winning one game with a walk-off home run in the 16th and getting outscored by five runs over the series. They played USC at Dedeaux and lost one of two weekend series on the year (the other being the Oregon series). So, maybe they try a bit. The other thing that concerns me is that Oregon would have a double incentive to beat Stanford in that it would allow them to play Arizona in the semifinal at night and eliminate Oregon State at the same time. Go Cal! |
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Post by joecool on May 24, 2023 18:48:45 GMT -8
Thanks to everyone that understands something so simple yet so complex.
And double thanks to those that actually can type Stanford.
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Post by tamatrix on May 24, 2023 19:33:47 GMT -8
So if Furd loses to tonight but wins tomorrow we get WC if we beat ASU....if Furd loses tonight, and tomorrow we get WC over Furd cuz they went 0-2.....correct? Yes. In the second scenario, we get the added bonus of missing Furd in the WC. If Furd goes 2-0, a 1-1 Oregon State would play Furd in the Semifinal. You sure about this Wilky? I thought they place the 4 again based on seed, the WC not necessarily the "4 seed" I believe? I think we'd be the #1 or #2 even if we get in via WC, no? |
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Post by tamatrix on May 24, 2023 19:36:19 GMT -8
From the Pac-12 website....
The three pool winners will advance to the Friday single-elimination semifinals along with one Wild Card team. The Wild Card will be determined by the best record of the non-advancing teams. Any tiebreaker will be awarded to the highest seeded team. The semifinal matchups will pit the highest-seeded team against the lowest-seeded team on one side with the second-highest seed and second-lowest seed on the other. Teams from the same pool however will not play each other in the semifinals.
So, we would be the #1 or #2 seed, we would never play Stanford in Semi's in any situation....would play the winner of USC/Washington if Stanford gets in or play hole if they don't (as they wouldn't let us play Arizona again in our pool)
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2023 20:01:45 GMT -8
From the Pac-12 website.... The three pool winners will advance to the Friday single-elimination semifinals along with one Wild Card team. The Wild Card will be determined by the best record of the non-advancing teams. Any tiebreaker will be awarded to the highest seeded team. The semifinal matchups will pit the highest-seeded team against the lowest-seeded team on one side with the second-highest seed and second-lowest seed on the other. Teams from the same pool however will not play each other in the semifinals. So, we would be the #1 or #2 seed, we would never play Stanford in Semi's in any situation....would play the winner of USC/Washington if Stanford gets in or play hole if they don't (as they wouldn't let us play Arizona again in our pool) Y'know, this is going to fall into don't believe everything that you read on Wikipedia. That's my bad. You are 100% correct. If Stanford goes 0-2, Oregon State plays Oregon at 2:30 p.m. If Stanford beats Oregon, Oregon State plays the USC @ Washington winner at 7:00 p.m. |
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