cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598 
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Post by cake on May 20, 2023 15:20:57 GMT -8
As much as they suck, why would Oregon be on the bubble? They have 16 conference wins and a 38 RPI. Even with an embarrassing 3-10 record vs Q1 teams. ASU and USC also have 16 wins and are 51 and 55 in RPI. Wouldn't they be on the bubble? Not playing the 30th conference game shouldn't give you that much of an advantage.
I'd guess 5. I think USC gets left out. The 55 RPI is bad. 4-12-1 vs Q1 teams. Just not good enough.
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cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598
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Post by cake on May 20, 2023 15:30:28 GMT -8
>I know it's not based on conference standings but if you are 4th or 5th and don't get in, but 6th does?
When we got hosed in 2016, we had 16 wins, same as ASU. They got in despite the fact that we swept them. If tiebreakers count, we got passed over. So, I don't know if the extra half game really makes much difference.
But, it would be pretty hilarious if they didn't make it.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 18:19:38 GMT -8
As much as they suck, why would Oregon be on the bubble? They have 16 conference wins and a 38 RPI. Even with an embarrassing 3-10 record vs Q1 teams. ASU and USC also have 16 wins and are 51 and 55 in RPI. Wouldn't they be on the bubble? Not playing the 30th conference game shouldn't give you that much of an advantage.
I'd guess 5. I think USC gets left out. The 55 RPI is bad. 4-12-1 vs Q1 teams. Just not good enough. Oregon was 1-8 at one point. The Ducks win the last two to finish 3-8 in the last 11 regular season games. Arizona State was tone of the last two in in D1 Baseball's projection, and USC was one of the last four in in Baseball America's projection. USC is winning 4-3 in the fourth. If USC wins, the Trojans would jump to 51 in RPI. Arizona State is 2-7 over their final 9 and 3-10 in their last 13. They are very much on the bubble. When I see nonsense like this, though, the cynic in me usually believes that it is just people trying to get a big market team (like USC) into the Tournament, possibly at the expense of a team with a better overall resume. Arizona State (Phoenix) and Washington (Seattle) getting in over Oregon State in 2016 is of a similar vein. |
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Post by mbabeav on May 20, 2023 18:27:34 GMT -8
There are so many automatic bids out there for conference champions that having a 50 plus RPI makes it pretty hard to get into the tournament. So I think that the Pac 12 may only get four, maybe five in.
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Post by rgeorge on May 20, 2023 18:36:18 GMT -8
As much as they suck, why would Oregon be on the bubble? They have 16 conference wins and a 38 RPI. Even with an embarrassing 3-10 record vs Q1 teams. ASU and USC also have 16 wins and are 51 and 55 in RPI. Wouldn't they be on the bubble? Not playing the 30th conference game shouldn't give you that much of an advantage.
I'd guess 5. I think USC gets left out. The 55 RPI is bad. 4-12-1 vs Q1 teams. Just not good enough. Oregon was 1-8 at one point. The Ducks win the last two to finish 3-8 in the last 11 regular season games. Arizona State was tone of the last two in in D1 Baseball's projection, and USC was one of the last four in in Baseball America's projection. USC is winning 4-3 in the fourth. If USC wins, the Trojans would jump to 51 in RPI. Arizona State is 2-7 over their final 9 and 3-10 in their last 13. They are very much on the bubble. When I see nonsense like this, though, the cynic in me usually believes that it is just people trying to get a big market team (like USC) into the Tournament, possibly at the expense of a team with a better overall resume. Arizona State (Phoenix) and Washington (Seattle) getting in over Oregon State in 2016 is of a similar vein. OSU didn't go 1-8 at any point in Pac12 play. As far as I can remember they didn't go 1-8 during any 9 game stretch in 2023. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 20, 2023 18:44:20 GMT -8
Oregon was 1-8 at one point. The Ducks win the last two to finish 3-8 in the last 11 regular season games. Arizona State was tone of the last two in in D1 Baseball's projection, and USC was one of the last four in in Baseball America's projection. USC is winning 4-3 in the fourth. If USC wins, the Trojans would jump to 51 in RPI. Arizona State is 2-7 over their final 9 and 3-10 in their last 13. They are very much on the bubble. When I see nonsense like this, though, the cynic in me usually believes that it is just people trying to get a big market team (like USC) into the Tournament, possibly at the expense of a team with a better overall resume. Arizona State (Phoenix) and Washington (Seattle) getting in over Oregon State in 2016 is of a similar vein. OSU didn't go 1-8 at any point in Pac12 play. As far as I can remember they didn't go 1-8 during any 9 game stretch in 2023. He said uo not OSU. |
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Post by rgeorge on May 20, 2023 19:04:05 GMT -8
OSU didn't go 1-8 at any point in Pac12 play. As far as I can remember they didn't go 1-8 during any 9 game stretch in 2023. He said uo not OSU. Didn't think Wilky would miss on that. But, after two days of diverted, delayed, canceled, book your own flight home, delayed 4 hrs again... I misread. Not even being stuck at Harry Reid is appealing at this point. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 19:34:38 GMT -8
There are so many automatic bids out there for conference champions that having a 50 plus RPI makes it pretty hard to get into the tournament. So I think that the Pac 12 may only get four, maybe five in. Pac-12 probably gets at least five. One of the six may get squeezed out. Four would be a tremendous slap in the face. You have to remember that some teams are not treated like they have the RPI that they have. Louisville, Missouri, and Virginia Tech are three teams that have a close to 1% shot of getting into the Tournament without a monster showing in their Tournaments, despite RPIs that would normally get you in without a second thought. Most people know that RPI is garbage. It is just a matter of how much work the Committee does to make sure that the Tournament is realistic and not just a modified RPI S curve. 2016 Committee, I am looking at you. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 19:36:20 GMT -8
Didn't think Wilky would miss on that. But, after two days of diverted, delayed, canceled, book your own flight home, delayed 4 hrs again... I misread. Not even being stuck at Harry Reid is appealing at this point. It is one of the best airports to get stuck out. But you are right; it gets old after awhile. |
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