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Post by chinmusic on May 19, 2023 10:56:24 GMT -8
In Surprise last February, a question came to mind - does the word travel slowly down under?š
I heard it when I was about 10 years old from my first coach, "never make the first or last out of an inning at third base". Many big innings, and late game rallies have been lost with the first and third out of an inning at 3rd base. I think that ancient baseball wisdom must be rooted in the fact that there are nine ways to score from 3B and only two from 2B. In addition, you are giving up the out. Coaches learn early, "it's easier to run yourself out of an inning than to run yourself into an inning".
Travis Bazzana runs the bases like a hungry Cheetah on the Serengeti. UCLA Coach John Savage called him, "the best baserunner in college baseball". I would not disagree. Your odds of retiring him on a bunt are probably less than 40%. He has pilfered 33 bases in 36 steal attempts. He stretches singles into doubles and doubles into triples, He puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses and pitchers. How many times have we seen him score from 1B on a single? He leads the Beavers in every offensive statistical category.
Travis is a fantastic baserunner, there's no other way to put it.
Now to my question. In Surprise, I witnessed the following:
Travis making the 1st out of the 6th inning at third base against Minnesota
Travis making the 1st out of the 8th inning at third base against New Mexico.
Travis making the first out of the 4rh inning at third base against Cal-Santa Barbara.
Then I didn't see it again until the Saturday game against Arizona when he made the 1st out at 3B in the 3rd inning.
It popped up again on Sunday against Utah when he made the first out at 3B in the1st inning.
On Sunday against UCLA, Travis made the first out of the 1st inning at 3B.
So, any notion he had corrected those costly outs at 3B, disappeared.
Here's the dilemma, if you're the coach, do you accept that or choose to overlook that because it is just reflecting his aggressive nature running the bases, and you clearly know that is paying big dividends for the team . . . . or do you correct it, knowing he will be a first round draft / large investment pick next year and that some organization will probably want to correct it once he's drafted.
Care to opine?
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Post by beaver55to7 on May 20, 2023 16:18:11 GMT -8
Iām not sure that baseballism is actually correct. Scoring position on third is not the same as scoring position on second. We all know the many additional scoring opportunities you have on third, especially with less then 2 outs, versus being on second. I would like to see the sabermetrics of it. Do you score more runs if you try to stretch to third but get caught 1 out of 4 times? I suspect you do. Maybe it is not being ācorrectedā because the coaches actual want him to take chances reaching third? If I were the head guy and had someone as fast as TB I would encourage it.
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Post by chinmusic on May 20, 2023 17:45:46 GMT -8
One way to look at it is with no outs and your runner is already in scoring position at 2B, why take a high risk by bringing him over to 3B if there is a chance he will be thrown out? The % of him scoring from second with no outs is high. The consequence is giving up an out and destroying what might have been a big inning.
Making the 3rd out at 3B can only be justified if you are in a close game, in the late innings, with a very weak hitter due up and your only chance to score that runner might be a WP, PB or Balk. You have to have your runner at 3B ready to capitalize, so you take the risk.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 17:53:19 GMT -8
Iām not sure that baseballism is actually correct. Scoring position on third is not the same as scoring position on second. We all know the many additional scoring opportunities you have on third, especially with less then 2 outs, versus being on second. I would like to see the sabermetrics of it. Do you score more runs if you try to stretch to third but get caught 1 out of 4 times? I suspect you do. Maybe it is not being ācorrectedā because the coaches actual want him to take chances reaching third? If I were the head guy and had someone as fast as TB I would encourage it. It would make sense only with one out. You are more likely to score with a runner on third with one out than a runner on second with one out to take the risk. It never makes sense to take a risk like that with zero outs or with two outs. |
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Post by beaver55to7 on May 20, 2023 18:04:00 GMT -8
One way to look at it is with no outs and your runner is already in scoring position at 2B, why take a high risk by bringing him over to 3B if there is a chance he will be thrown out? The % of him scoring from second with no outs is high. The consequence is giving up an out and destroying what might have been a big inning. Making the 3rd out at 3B can only be justified if you are in a close game, in the late innings, with a very weak hitter due up and your only chance to score that runner might be a WP, PB or Balk. You have to have your runner at 3B ready to capitalize, so you take the risk. SABR says your conventional wisdom is mostly wrong, and I would say in TBās case because of his speed almost certainly wrong: āThere are two situations to examine. One situation is when a runner is attempting to advance to third base and this runner is the only baserunner. This situation could arise when a batter attempts to stretch a double into a triple, when a runner on second tries to steal third base, or when a runner on second attempts to advance to third on a fly ball or when a pitch gets past the catcher. When there is nobody out, the expected number of runs per half inning is 1.2866 when there is a runner on third and nobody out and 0.2394 when there are no baserunners and one out (which would occur if the runner were unsuccessful in advancing to third). Thus, if the probability of successful advance to third base is denoted by p, the expected number of runs by attempting to advance to third base with nobody out is 1.2866p + 0.2394(1-p). Setting this equal to 1.0393 (the expected number of runs scored with a runner on second with nobody out, the situation in which no advance is attempted) and solving for p gives the threshold value of p for this situation; in this case p=0.764. A runner will increase the teamās expected number of runs scored in the inning by attempting to advance from second to third if he anticipates a probability of success better than 0.764. Other threshold values appear in Table 2.ā sabr.org/journal/article/never-make-the-first-or-last-out-at-third-base-perhaps/ |
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Post by beavaristotle on May 20, 2023 18:09:39 GMT -8
One way to look at it is with no outs and your runner is already in scoring position at 2B, why take a high risk by bringing him over to 3B if there is a chance he will be thrown out? The % of him scoring from second with no outs is high. The consequence is giving up an out and destroying what might have been a big inning. Making the 3rd out at 3B can only be justified if you are in a close game, in the late innings, with a very weak hitter due up and your only chance to score that runner might be a WP, PB or Balk. You have to have your runner at 3B ready to capitalize, so you take the risk. SABR says your conventional wisdom is mostly wrong, and I would say in TBās case because of his speed almost certainly wrong: āThere are two situations to examine. One situation is when a runner is attempting to advance to third base and this runner is the only baserunner. This situation could arise when a batter attempts to stretch a double into a triple, when a runner on second tries to steal third base, or when a runner on second attempts to advance to third on a fly ball or when a pitch gets past the catcher. When there is nobody out, the expected number of runs per half inning is 1.2866 when there is a runner on third and nobody out and 0.2394 when there are no baserunners and one out (which would occur if the runner were unsuccessful in advancing to third). Thus, if the probability of successful advance to third base is denoted by p, the expected number of runs by attempting to advance to third base with nobody out is 1.2866p + 0.2394(1-p). Setting this equal to 1.0393 (the expected number of runs scored with a runner on second with nobody out, the situation in which no advance is attempted) and solving for p gives the threshold value of p for this situation; in this case p=0.764. A runner will increase the teamās expected number of runs scored in the inning by attempting to advance from second to third if he anticipates a probability of success better than 0.764. Other threshold values appear in Table 2.āĀ sabr.org/journal/article/never-make-the-first-or-last-out-at-third-base-perhaps/ Math is like a rock, itās hard |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 20, 2023 18:18:45 GMT -8
SABR says your conventional wisdom is mostly wrong, and I would say in TBās case because of his speed almost certainly wrong: āThere are two situations to examine. One situation is when a runner is attempting to advance to third base and this runner is the only baserunner. This situation could arise when a batter attempts to stretch a double into a triple, when a runner on second tries to steal third base, or when a runner on second attempts to advance to third on a fly ball or when a pitch gets past the catcher. When there is nobody out, the expected number of runs per half inning is 1.2866 when there is a runner on third and nobody out and 0.2394 when there are no baserunners and one out (which would occur if the runner were unsuccessful in advancing to third). Thus, if the probability of successful advance to third base is denoted by p, the expected number of runs by attempting to advance to third base with nobody out is 1.2866p + 0.2394(1-p). Setting this equal to 1.0393 (the expected number of runs scored with a runner on second with nobody out, the situation in which no advance is attempted) and solving for p gives the threshold value of p for this situation; in this case p=0.764. A runner will increase the teamās expected number of runs scored in the inning by attempting to advance from second to third if he anticipates a probability of success better than 0.764. Other threshold values appear in Table 2.āĀ sabr.org/journal/article/never-make-the-first-or-last-out-at-third-base-perhaps/ Math is like a rock, itās hard Itās a damn good thing that baseball is not all math. |
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