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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 1, 2023 9:43:38 GMT -8
Going into the 4th match up vs Oregon we are 30-13 (14-10) and in pretty solid position to make the post season.
Perfect result we finish 42-13 (20-10) absolute collapse we are 30-25.
We have 6 conference games left with a home stand against Utah and finish P12 with a massive series at UCLA. UCLA is pretty much our last RPI boost minus just not losing.
We have 2 non-con games vs UP, 1 vs Oregon and a non-con series vs Western Carolina. Fun fact my 5 year olds T-Ball coach played for WCU 20 years ago and had no idea they were playing a series at Goss.
12 games left with 5 soft Non-Con, a decent "non-con" and a conference series against the bottom wrung Utah and a likely desperate UCLA. My guess is UCLA will need to win the series against us to secure a post season bid before the tourney. UCLA has the hardest end of conference schedule with a home series against us and an away series against ASU.
Our path looks pretty rosey at this point.
If we drop one game in the rest of the regular season Mitch will go into the P12 Tourney as the winning percentage leader since 1910 just edging Pat Casey. Not too shabby for 4 years and rolling with his own players now. I have to say the staff really seems to be doing a good job developing players with guys like Baz, Forrester, Guerra and MM looking like the real deal as upper classmen.
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Post by hottubbeaver on May 1, 2023 10:21:09 GMT -8
Why does it seem, going back to the UW series, we seem to keep catching teams on hot streaks. Now Utah is coming off a sweep of the Cougs and won 4 in a row. UofA was on 6 game win streak coming in. That other series team had won like 11 in a row, and SC 5 in a row.
Speaking of UU's sweep of the Cougs, what the hell happened to WSU? Injuries? Haven't improved? They looked to me like a very complete team early on and now they're fighting to stay out of the conference cellar.
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Post by ag87 on May 1, 2023 10:37:08 GMT -8
There has been a website with "needs" to reach tournament, top 16 seed, and top 8 seed. But I don't remember it. It's not Warren Nolan. For instance for a top 16 seed, OSU would need six home wins and two road wins. Anybody know what site that is?
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Post by ag87 on May 1, 2023 11:42:09 GMT -8
There has been a website with "needs" to reach tournament, top 16 seed, and top 8 seed. But I don't remember it. It's not Warren Nolan. For instance for a top 16 seed, OSU would need six home wins and two road wins. Anybody know what site that is? It's Boyds World. boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html Their RPI is a little different than Nolan's. Boyd says there is no path for OSU to get a top 16 RPI. In fact, they say we need to go a minimum of 10-2 to get a top 32 RPI. We need (almost) a minimum of 8-4 to get a top 45 RPI. I hope they are a bit off and I also hope we get to host with a RPI of around 20.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 1, 2023 21:51:38 GMT -8
There has been a website with "needs" to reach tournament, top 16 seed, and top 8 seed. But I don't remember it. It's not Warren Nolan. For instance for a top 16 seed, OSU would need six home wins and two road wins. Anybody know what site that is? It's Boyds World. boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html Their RPI is a little different than Nolan's. Boyd says there is no path for OSU to get a top 16 RPI. In fact, they say we need to go a minimum of 10-2 to get a top 32 RPI. We need (almost) a minimum of 8-4 to get a top 45 RPI. I hope they are a bit off and I also hope we get to host with a RPI of around 20. Boyd's World drops ties. It shorts Oregon State about three tenths of a percent, which is not huge but is enough to move Oregon State from 27th in real life to 32nd. Warren Nolan is more accurate. Two Warren Nolan projections: 9-3 RPI 30 10-2 RPI 18
That is probable two-seed to possible Corvallis Regional.
As always, Western Carolina rainouts likely improve RPI projections. There is a big RPI sink at the end of the regular season, win or, especially, lose.
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