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Post by bennycat on Apr 19, 2023 11:26:02 GMT -8
Bennycat likes! Bennycat say "post of the year"
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Post by messi on Apr 19, 2023 11:29:36 GMT -8
OSU moved up in Nolan live RPI from 40 to 39 right after the Portland game was registered. UP moved up 11 spots to 118, and since we play them 2x it is probably important that they stay in top 150 (out of Q4). Since it was a home game for UP, the road loss does not hurt the Pac team as much. OTOH, a short time later 2 results knocked OSU back down to RPI 40 - Stanford home loss to RPI 180 Sac State and the ucla home loss to loss to Irvine. UCLA barely hurts us, because they are an opponent's opponent still. The Bruins are down to 36 in RPI, though. And UCLA has the third-best RPI of all remaining opponents behind Oregon and Arizona State. That is not looking great all of a sudden. Oregon State really does not have a ton of margin for error here. With the upcoming schedule, you probably need to get to at least 40 regular season wins to see a Corvallis Regional, and that still may not be enough. If all three of those Western Carolina games rain out, that may be a blessing. There are only seven great games left for RPI purposes but there are no other really bad games, except for the Western Carolina series. How big of a boost would winning the conference tournament provide? |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 19, 2023 11:34:38 GMT -8
😆 I mean I kinda feel bad for the kid, but not too bad, cuz he's a duck He did hit 2 home runs in the game. Kind of the baseball equivalent of drive for show, putt for dough |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 19, 2023 14:01:33 GMT -8
UCLA barely hurts us, because they are an opponent's opponent still. The Bruins are down to 36 in RPI, though. And UCLA has the third-best RPI of all remaining opponents behind Oregon and Arizona State. That is not looking great all of a sudden. Oregon State really does not have a ton of margin for error here. With the upcoming schedule, you probably need to get to at least 40 regular season wins to see a Corvallis Regional, and that still may not be enough. If all three of those Western Carolina games rain out, that may be a blessing. There are only seven great games left for RPI purposes but there are no other really bad games, except for the Western Carolina series. How big of a boost would winning the conference tournament provide? It would be irrelevant, because we'd have the automatic berth. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 19, 2023 14:22:17 GMT -8
UCLA barely hurts us, because they are an opponent's opponent still. The Bruins are down to 36 in RPI, though. And UCLA has the third-best RPI of all remaining opponents behind Oregon and Arizona State. That is not looking great all of a sudden. Oregon State really does not have a ton of margin for error here. With the upcoming schedule, you probably need to get to at least 40 regular season wins to see a Corvallis Regional, and that still may not be enough. If all three of those Western Carolina games rain out, that may be a blessing. There are only seven great games left for RPI purposes but there are no other really bad games, except for the Western Carolina series. How big of a boost would winning the conference tournament provide? It depends on how the teams finish and other circumstances, like how other teams do in their Tournaments. Like right now, Oregon State is in sixth. If the season ended right now, Oregon State would be paired with Arizona and Arizona State, which would just about be an absolutely worst case scenario logistically. Oregon State needs to move up at least a spot. I would also say that it is hard to guess at static standings. USC's schedule, just as an example, is incredibly backloaded (UCLA, @ Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, and @ Arizona with good midweek games except for Cal State Bakersfield). If the Trojans can go let's say 16-3 over the backstretch, they will move up a lot more than the Beavs, if they go let's say 17-3. If USC goes 16-3, I could see the Trojans challenging for a National Seed. The Beavs would want to play the Trojans. Of course, USC could just as easily crash and burn, and Oregon State would want to avoid them like the plague. It should be easier to figure out how the Tournament will affect things in a day-and-a-half or so. We should also get some more information from the regional projection websites. I just ran Warren Nolan's simulator. The finish was: 1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. USC
5. Arizona State
6. UCLA
7. Wazzu
8. Washington
9. Arizona
Oregon State plays USC with the best RPI in the Pac-12 (21) and Wazzu (RPI 65). Oregon State avoids the Huskies and their poison 133rd best projected RPI and also plays a very dangerous Arizona State and Arizona. Oregon has do deal with them instead.
Something of a dream scenario there.
It would be ideal, if Oregon State can play Stanford and then USC for the Championship. If Oregon State wins three of four there or all four, the Beavs likely host a Corvallis Regional.
Both UCLA and USC could finish with very nice RPIs, if they can get to 20 or so conference wins. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 19, 2023 14:24:37 GMT -8
How big of a boost would winning the conference tournament provide? It would be irrelevant, because we'd have the automatic berth. I took it to mean with an eye toward a Corvallis Regional. Oregon State needs to finish strong for that to happen. The Beavs likely need at least 40 wins (and 42 might be a more accurate estimate) before the Pac-12 Tournament kicks off. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 19, 2023 14:48:35 GMT -8
15-4 is a tough ask but I've seen weirder stuff
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Post by irimi on Apr 19, 2023 16:11:24 GMT -8
15-4 is a tough ask but I've seen weirder stuff Counting back 16 games to the start of the Cal series, we've gone 13-3. I think it is entirely doable, but we have to stay on this trajectory. And stay healthy. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 19, 2023 16:30:49 GMT -8
15-4 is a tough ask but I've seen weirder stuff Counting back 16 games to the start of the Cal series, we've gone 13-3. I think it is entirely doable, but we have to stay on this trajectory. And stay healthy. It's def doable. Win every conference series and all non-con and you are 40-15. |
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