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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 13, 2023 14:49:04 GMT -8
College Sports Madness put out their April 12th Regional Projection:
As I predicted, Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA are still projected as Regional Hosts.
Arizona State is projected as a two-seed in a Gainesville Regional.
USC is projected as a three-seed in a Columbia Regional.
Oregon State is one of the last three in as a three-seed in a Baton Rouge Regional, which has to be one of the worst possible places for Oregon State to have to play a Regional or Super Regional.
But Southern Miss would be a pretty soft two to play against.
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Post by ricke71 on Apr 13, 2023 16:05:30 GMT -8
College Sports Madness put out their April 12th Regional Projection: As I predicted, Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA are still projected as Regional Hosts. Arizona State is projected as a two-seed in a Gainesville Regional. USC is projected as a three-seed in a Columbia Regional. Oregon State is one of the last three in as a three-seed in a Baton Rouge Regional, which has to be one of the worst possible places for Oregon State to have to play a Regional or Super Regional. But Southern Miss would be a pretty soft two to play against. Projections at the less than 2/3 point of the season (counting Conference Tournaments) are nothing more than 'interesting'. If the Beavs continue their very recent performance, they may even attain a host position. 32 games under their belt. 23 games + PAC-11 Tournament to go. It all starts tomorrow, at Goss. |
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Post by chinmusic on Apr 13, 2023 20:53:37 GMT -8
I would prefer this one!
Baseball America is projecting 6 PAC-12 teams reaching Regional play.
Stanford Regional: Texas Tech, UCSB, SJSU
East Carolina Regional: USC, Old Dominion, Fairfield
Vanderbilt Regional: oregon, Xavier, Southern Illinois.
Arkansas Regional: UCLA, CS-Fullerton, SE Missouri State.
South Carolina Regional: Arizona State, North Carolina State, Incarnate Word
Virginia Regional: West Virginia, Oregon State, Army.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 13, 2023 22:09:17 GMT -8
I would prefer this one! Baseball America is projecting 6 PAC-12 teams reaching Regional play. Stanford Regional: Texas Tech, UCSB, SJSU East Carolina Regional: USC, Old Dominion, Fairfield Vanderbilt Regional: oregon, Xavier, Southern Illinois. Arkansas Regional: UCLA, CS-Fullerton, SE Missouri State. South Carolina Regional: Arizona State, North Carolina State, Incarnate Word Virginia Regional: West Virginia, Oregon State, Army. Where are the Western Regionals, if not in Eugene and Los Angeles? Charlottesville worked out well for Oregon State last time, but this Virginia team looks better than the 2007 version (maybe not topline talent but overall). The Cavs are about fourth on my personal list of #1 seeds I do not want Oregon State to have to play. West Virginia is a silly soft two, though. Actually, looking at it, that is exactly the same as the 2007 Charlottesville Regional. Virginia as the one-seed, the best team out of the old Big East (West Virginia did not leave the Big East for the Big 12 until 2013), and the Patriot League Champion (Lafayette in 2007 and apparently Army in 2023). That's weird. I suppose that the Pac-10 only got one host spot in 2007, as well, but as a #5 overall National Seed. And Long Beach and San Diego were the other two Western Regionals (and Fullerton hosted the Super Regional). Still, where are the Western Regionals? Usually, they will give the West at least three, if it's anywhere near close. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 14, 2023 7:18:21 GMT -8
Do the quacks look like a regional host after last weekend? They still have to play Furd, u dub, ASU, USC. I think their lack of quality pitching depth is catching up with them.
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Post by chinmusic on Apr 14, 2023 8:06:19 GMT -8
Yes, and one might conclude following the Beaver series at PK . . .
"they don't hit too good, either"
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 14, 2023 9:27:09 GMT -8
Yes, and one might conclude following the Beaver series at PK . . . "they don't hit too good, either" Feels like it was more a testament to our pitching......which I feel like your statement might be a bit tongue-in-cheek anyway. Watching the quacks lineup I always had the sense they were close to a big inning......and they've done that time and again this year......I only know this cuz I follow box scores sometimes, and they will be down often, and then blow up in late innings.....that lineup can come through.....pretty dangerous. Again, a testament to our pitching staff. I am a believer. That was a great weekend performance. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 14, 2023 20:31:53 GMT -8
Do the quacks look like a regional host after last weekend? They still have to play Furd, u dub, ASU, USC. I think their lack of quality pitching depth is catching up with them. I am more or less protesting the lack of Western Regionals. The West should get at least three. Baseball America used to be the biggest champion for the West and since has devolved into pro-ACC and SEC hackery. I have my problems with D1 Baseball, but they tend to be a little more pro-West anymore. If Oregon is slotted in to host a Regional now, the Beavs should be slotted into a Regional host spot once we beat the Ducks again and pass them in the standings. |
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Post by tamatrix on Apr 14, 2023 21:05:12 GMT -8
I hear you Wilky...but our and other OOC schedules aren't good enough to host....Stanford and UCLA at this point should and that's it.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 14, 2023 21:32:46 GMT -8
I hear you Wilky...but our and other OOC schedules aren't good enough to host....Stanford and UCLA at this point should and that's it. Oregon beat Stanford 4-0. Jace Stoffal has not given up an earned run in the past 21 innings: the last five against Arizona, the seven against Oregon State, and the full nine against Stanford. Stoffal's last bad game was against Wazzu. I still think that Oregon is Oregon State's biggest competition in the race for the top of the conference. We got Stanford at a bad time. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 14, 2023 21:46:21 GMT -8
As long as we are in this. UCLA's RPI is tanking, because they have a series with damned if you do, damned if you don't Davis.
Wins over USC are worth about three spots and losses are worth about two or three.
If Oregon State goes 2-0, the Beavs are likely around 44 in RPI. If Oregon State goes 1-1, the Beavs likely stand pat at around 50. If Oregon State goes 0-2, the Beavs likely fall to about 55 in RPI.
The Cal Poly, Coppin State, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Nevada, and Santa Barbara games also play a part in all of that, along with how teams in that 38-61 range play over the next two days.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 15, 2023 23:58:19 GMT -8
As long as we are in this. UCLA's RPI is tanking, because they have a series with damned if you do, damned if you don't Davis. Wins over USC are worth about three spots and losses are worth about two or three. If Oregon State goes 2-0, the Beavs are likely around 44 in RPI. If Oregon State goes 1-1, the Beavs likely stand pat at around 50. If Oregon State goes 0-2, the Beavs likely fall to about 55 in RPI. The Cal Poly, Coppin State, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Nevada, and Santa Barbara games also play a part in all of that, along with how teams in that 38-61 range play over the next two days. It looks like Oregon State is doing about one spot better than I had predicted, mostly because teams around the Beavers are doing worse than I had expected. Of course, the Cal Poly, Coppin State, Gonzaga, Nevada, and Santa Barbara games play a part in all of that. |
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Post by Werebeaver on Apr 16, 2023 8:05:14 GMT -8
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 16, 2023 9:05:10 GMT -8
Oregon State is up to #16 in Warren Nolan's ELO. Oregon State is the lowest-ranked in RPI, because it is a terrible ratings system. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 16, 2023 9:47:15 GMT -8
Oregon State's nonconference SOS is 267.
No team above Oregon State in RPI has a lower nonconference SOS. The worst above Oregon State is Missouri, who has a better record against nonconference SOS of 253.
The team with the worst nonconference SOS and a record worse than 14-3 is Duke, who has an extra loss against nonconference 145.
If you turn one of Oregon State's losses into a win, the Beavs would have an RPI of 33 right now. The teams in that 33-45 range are much more tightly packed than the 45-57 range for whatever reason.
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