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Post by chinmusic on Apr 8, 2023 23:13:22 GMT -8
The Beavers through 30 games have put 440 runners on base. 185 of those runners have scored and 255 have been LOB. The probability of an OSU baserunner scoring is 42.1% Run that check on any opponent we will face in the rest of our regular season schedule. It compares better than you might think.
We were more aggressive at bat today as opposed to yesterday against the ducks. Four UO pitchers (Mercado, Grabmann, Ginsell and Anderson) combined to throw 161 pitches today and 98 were strikes. Of those 98 strikes, Beaver hitters were swinging at 65 of them while taking 33 in the zone. 63 pitches were obviously called balls, so in total our hitters took 96 of the UO 161 total pitch count. We took 59.6% of the pitches the ducks threw, including 34% of the strikes. We had 7 hitters K, 3 on called 3rd strikes.
Much better than most recent games.
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 8, 2023 23:46:48 GMT -8
The issue with the previous analysis... Pac12 games are what really matters at this point.
In Pac12 games OSU is at or near the bottom in most key offensive categories:
3.64 runs/g
6 hits/game
.191 BA
Only 32.1% of runners score
Remaining series:
Utah 36.5% w/ .242 BA
UCLA 39.7% w/ .247 BA
Zona 42.8% w/ .295 BA
USC 46.4% w/ .281 BA
ASU 48.9% w/ .325 BA
Pitching needs to stay consistent. But, the bats have to improve to take some pressure off.
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Post by easyheat on Apr 9, 2023 5:48:01 GMT -8
Winning the PAC-12 is a goal but your entire body of work is very important. Getting to post season play is the only path to Omaha and you cannot afford to stub your toe against Seattle, Gonzaga, Portland, GCU or Western Carolina and expect to see Regional play.
Your RPI is measured by performance against all teams on your schedule including PAC-12 teams.
BA is a sexy stat but astute coaches are focused on the OB% or wOBA. At least six ways to get on base, coach. Hitting is one of them.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 9, 2023 7:19:37 GMT -8
Regardless of all the ways to get on base, a .191 BA isn't gonna get it done in the long run.
That historically light hitting UCLA team that won it all in 2013 hit .227 at Omaha, and .250 for the season.....they also had 2.55 team ERA! That pitching staff was stacked.
That said, there's really nowhere to go but up, right? I mean can our hitting get worse? Not by much.
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 9, 2023 13:48:32 GMT -8
Astute posters know that the discussion was based on % of runners scored. The vast majority of which are driven in by hits, not the other 5 methods. Hence, BA is the key part of this particular discussion.
And, RPI vs an inferior NC will drop, period. Hence, finishing well, top 4 would really be helpful, of the Pac12 vs higher RPI is THE most important factor in gaining a postseason berth.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 9, 2023 15:48:46 GMT -8
Nice to have a game where hitting and pitching showed up.....we are pretty good when that happens!
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