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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 14, 2023 16:57:34 GMT -8
That ASU-Washington rain out being a factor. It keeps ASU from caching the Beavers if they sweep UCLA, but had the Sun Devils somehow won at Washington, then Cal would only need to beat the Huskies once giving OSU the #2 seed via tiebreak. If you're not 1st for the regular season title, all that matters is the pool matchups and getting to the final 4 teams. I guess that the other reason that second place would be a big deal is that Oregon State would own tiebreakers to get to the final four teams. If the Beavers finish second, they make the Pac-12 semifinal with a 1-1 record, so long as Stanford also does not finish with a 1-1 record. The Cardinal clinch the semifinal with a 1-1 record. But if Stanford finishes 0-2 or 2-0 (or everyone in Pool A finishes 1-1), Oregon State would clinch the semifinal with a 1-1 record. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 14, 2023 17:23:28 GMT -8
1. Stanford 19-6 - 2. Washington 14-10 4 1/2 3. Arizona State 14-10 4 1/2 4. Oregon State 16-12 4 1/2 5. USC 14-11 5 6. Oregon 14-11 57. UCLA 11-12-1 7 8. Wazzu 9-15 9 1/2 9. Arizona 9-16 1010. California 9-16 10 11. Utah 8-18-1 11 1/2 Stanford's magic number is now one. Oregon State's loss and Stanford's win eliminates the Beavers from the regular season conference championship. Oregon State's last Pac-12 Championship was 2017. The seven year Conference Championship drought will match the drought between 2006 and 2013, the longest Conference Championship drought since between 1986 and 2005. Alright, raise your hand if you thought that Washington would be in second place in the Pac-12 with exactly one week left in the regular season. And now put your hands back down, liars! Arizona State and Washington split their two games, and the third game was rained out in Seattle. The tiebreaker right now is record against Stanford, and Washington won one game. UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament is three. Wazzu leapfrogged Arizona and California into eighth place. Arizona has the tiebreaker over California. Right now: Pool A: Arizona, Oregon, and Stanford
Pool B: USC, Washington, and Wazzu
Pool C: Arizona State, Oregon State, and UCLAThe one team that I do not want Oregon State to play is Arizona State, so that is awful. UCLA has the highest RPI of the bottom three teams, which would not be a terrible thing, if Oregon State still means to host. Of course, with the way the Bruins crushed the Beavs tonight, I am not sure that that is a great thing. I ran the Pac-12 through the Warren Nolan simulator, and I got: Pool A: Arizona, Arizona State, and Stanford Pool B: USC, Washington, and Wazzu Pool C: Oregon, Oregon State, and UCLA That is not terrible. Stanford would have its hands full with the Arizona schools. Oregon State would trade Arizona State for Oregon, which sounds like a good trade to me. I guess that we'll see. 1. Stanford 20-6 - 2. Washington 15-10 4 1/2 3. Oregon State 17-12 4 1/2 4. USC 15-11 5 5. Arizona State 14-11 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-12 6 7. UCLA 11-13-1 8 8. California 10-16 10 9. Wazzu 9-16 10 1/2 10. Arizona 9-17 11 11. Utah 8-18-1 12 I was wrong. Stanford's magic number was one and now is zero. Arizona State and Oregon's combined losses on Friday reduced Stanford's magic number to one. The Cardinal have won consecutive Pac-12 Regular Season Championships for the first time since 2003 and 2004. Having decided that, we're in a race for #2. Oregon State is two or three wins up over everyone but everyone else has three games in hand. The Beavers' magic number with the Huskies is three. Washington needs at least two losses or three with a UCLA win over Oregon State. The Beavers' magic number with the Trojans is also officially three, but Oregon State holds all tiebreakers with USC, so it is more like two. The Beavers' magic number with the Devils is two. The Beavers' magic number with the Ducks is again officially two, but Oregon State holds all tiebreakers with Oregon, so it is more like one. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. Washington clinched its tiebreaker over Arizona State. The Huskies are now a game up over the Devils and own the tiebreaker. USC already had the tiebreaker with Oregon. The Trojans are now a game up over the Ducks and own the tiebreaker. UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament was three but is now two with Stanford's win over Arizona. California leapfrogged Arizona and Wazzu into eighth place. Arizona has fallen into 10th. The Wildcats still has the tiebreaker over the Golden Bears, if Arizona decide to start winning again. One last thought. The Arizona State @ Washington game is officially "canceled." It cannot be made up or replayed. The same is not true of the UCLA @ Wazzu game. That game is "postponed." If one or both of UCLA and Wazzu are in trouble of missing the Pac-12 Tournament, that game may still be played...............I think. Right now: Pool A: Oregon, Stanford, and Wazzu Pool B: Arizona State, California, and Washington Pool C: Oregon State, UCLA, and USC The one team that I do not want Oregon State to play is Arizona State, and crisis averted there. Of the current 4-6 seed teams, I would most want to play USC, so that works out great. (Although the Trojans look like they may be heating up.) UCLA has the highest RPI of the bottom three teams, which would not be a terrible thing, if Oregon State still means to host. Of course, with the way the Bruins have played the Beavs, I am not sure that that is a great thing. I ran the Pac-12 through the Warren Nolan simulator, and I got: Pool A: California, Stanford, and USC Pool B: Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon State Pool C: Oregon, UCLA, and Washington And that is awful. Oregon State playing both Arizona and Arizona State in Scottsdale. Just awful. If the Beavs can lock down the two-seed, I am going to start rooting to ensure that Arizona and Arizona State do not land on the five- and eight-seeds. I guess that we'll see. 1. Stanford 20-7 - 2. Washington 16-10 3 1/2 3. Oregon State 18-12 3 1/2 4. USC 16-11 4 5. Arizona State 14-12 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-13 6 7. UCLA 11-14-1 8 8. Wazzu 10-16 9 1/2 9. Arizona 10-17 10 10. California 10-17 10 11. Utah 8-18-1 11 1/2 The race for #2. The Huskies control their own destiny. Washington wins the two-seed with a sweep at home against Cal or a 2-1 finish and one or more losses by USC. If the Huskies falter, the Trojans control their destiny. USC wins the two-seed with a sweep in Tucson and one or more losses by Washington. Oregon State's magic number is two. The Beavs clinch the two seed with one or more losses by USC and two or three losses by Washington. If USC sweeps and Washington wins two or three, Oregon State finishes fourth. And the Beavs would play the Huskies or Trojans in Scottsdale. If USC sweeps or Washington wins two or three (but not both), Oregon State finishes third. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon, USC, or Washington to finish fourth. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon, UCLA, USC, or Washington to finish fifth. The Bruins can finish no higher than fifth. Washington owns the tiebreaker over Arizona State. USC owns the tiebreaker with Oregon. The Trojans are now two games up over the Ducks and own the tiebreaker. A loss by Oregon, or a win by USC guarantees that USC will finish ahead of Oregon. UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament is two. The Bruins' spot in the Pac-12 Tournament would be in trouble, if UCLA loses the series in Phoenix this weekend. Cal was leapfrogged by both Arizona and Wazzu into 10th place. Wazzu is in eighth place. Arizona holds the tiebreaker over Cal and sits in ninth. Now that Utah is done getting beat by Cal Poly, we can start looking at the Utes' scenarios. Utah needs to win the series against Oregon to stand a chance. If the Utes sweep the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu lose their series. If the Utes beat the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu get swept. rgeorge and ricke71 together nail the Pools. Arizona owns the tiebreaker over California. USC is set to get a huge RPI infusion at the end of the season with four road games. The Trojans would be great to play in the Tournament for that reason. UCLA or Wazzu would be good to play in the 7-9 seeds. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 18, 2023 23:23:08 GMT -8
1. Stanford 20-6 - 2. Washington 15-10 4 1/2 3. Oregon State 17-12 4 1/2 4. USC 15-11 5 5. Arizona State 14-11 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-12 6 7. UCLA 11-13-1 8 8. California 10-16 10 9. Wazzu 9-16 10 1/2 10. Arizona 9-17 11 11. Utah 8-18-1 12 I was wrong. Stanford's magic number was one and now is zero. Arizona State and Oregon's combined losses on Friday reduced Stanford's magic number to one. The Cardinal have won consecutive Pac-12 Regular Season Championships for the first time since 2003 and 2004. Having decided that, we're in a race for #2. Oregon State is two or three wins up over everyone but everyone else has three games in hand. The Beavers' magic number with the Huskies is three. Washington needs at least two losses or three with a UCLA win over Oregon State. The Beavers' magic number with the Trojans is also officially three, but Oregon State holds all tiebreakers with USC, so it is more like two. The Beavers' magic number with the Devils is two. The Beavers' magic number with the Ducks is again officially two, but Oregon State holds all tiebreakers with Oregon, so it is more like one. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. Washington clinched its tiebreaker over Arizona State. The Huskies are now a game up over the Devils and own the tiebreaker. USC already had the tiebreaker with Oregon. The Trojans are now a game up over the Ducks and own the tiebreaker. UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament was three but is now two with Stanford's win over Arizona. California leapfrogged Arizona and Wazzu into eighth place. Arizona has fallen into 10th. The Wildcats still has the tiebreaker over the Golden Bears, if Arizona decide to start winning again. One last thought. The Arizona State @ Washington game is officially "canceled." It cannot be made up or replayed. The same is not true of the UCLA @ Wazzu game. That game is "postponed." If one or both of UCLA and Wazzu are in trouble of missing the Pac-12 Tournament, that game may still be played...............I think. Right now: Pool A: Oregon, Stanford, and Wazzu Pool B: Arizona State, California, and Washington Pool C: Oregon State, UCLA, and USC The one team that I do not want Oregon State to play is Arizona State, and crisis averted there. Of the current 4-6 seed teams, I would most want to play USC, so that works out great. (Although the Trojans look like they may be heating up.) UCLA has the highest RPI of the bottom three teams, which would not be a terrible thing, if Oregon State still means to host. Of course, with the way the Bruins have played the Beavs, I am not sure that that is a great thing. I ran the Pac-12 through the Warren Nolan simulator, and I got: Pool A: California, Stanford, and USC Pool B: Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon State Pool C: Oregon, UCLA, and Washington And that is awful. Oregon State playing both Arizona and Arizona State in Scottsdale. Just awful. If the Beavs can lock down the two-seed, I am going to start rooting to ensure that Arizona and Arizona State do not land on the five- and eight-seeds. I guess that we'll see. 1. Stanford 20-7 - 2. Washington 16-10 3 1/2 3. Oregon State 18-12 3 1/2 4. USC 16-11 4 5. Arizona State 14-12 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-13 6 7. UCLA 11-14-1 8 8. Wazzu 10-16 9 1/2 9. Arizona 10-17 10 10. California 10-17 10 11. Utah 8-18-1 11 1/2 The race for #2. The Huskies control their own destiny. Washington wins the two-seed with a sweep at home against Cal or a 2-1 finish and one or more losses by USC. If the Huskies falter, the Trojans control their destiny. USC wins the two-seed with a sweep in Tucson and one or more losses by Washington. Oregon State's magic number is two. The Beavs clinch the two seed with one or more losses by USC and two or three losses by Washington. If USC sweeps and Washington wins two or three, Oregon State finishes fourth. And the Beavs would play the Huskies or Trojans in Scottsdale. If USC sweeps or Washington wins two or three (but not both), Oregon State finishes third. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon, USC, or Washington to finish fourth. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon, UCLA, USC, or Washington to finish fifth. The Bruins can finish no higher than fifth. Washington owns the tiebreaker over Arizona State. USC owns the tiebreaker with Oregon. The Trojans are now two games up over the Ducks and own the tiebreaker. A loss by Oregon, or a win by USC guarantees that USC will finish ahead of Oregon. UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament is two. The Bruins' spot in the Pac-12 Tournament would be in trouble, if UCLA loses the series in Phoenix this weekend. Cal was leapfrogged by both Arizona and Wazzu into 10th place. Wazzu is in eighth place. Arizona holds the tiebreaker over Cal and sits in ninth. Now that Utah is done getting beat by Cal Poly, we can start looking at the Utes' scenarios. Utah needs to win the series against Oregon to stand a chance. If the Utes sweep the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu lose their series. If the Utes beat the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu get swept. rgeorge and ricke71 together nail the Pools. Arizona owns the tiebreaker over California. USC is set to get a huge RPI infusion at the end of the season with four road games. The Trojans would be great to play in the Tournament for that reason. UCLA or Wazzu would be good to play in the 7-9 seeds. 1. Stanford 21-7 - 2. Washington 17-10 3 1/2 3. Oregon State 18-12 4 4. USC 16-11 4 1/2 5. Arizona State 15-12 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-14 7 7. UCLA 11-15-1 98. Wazzu 10-17 10 1/2 9. Arizona 10-17 10 1/2 10. California 10-18 11 11. Utah 9-18-1 11 1/2 The race for #2. The Huskies control their own destiny. Washington wins the two-seed with a sweep at home against Cal or a 2-1 finish and one or more losses by USC. If the Huskies falter, the Trojans control their destiny. USC wins the two-seed with a sweep in Tucson and one or more losses by Washington. Oregon State's magic number is still two. The Beavs clinch the two seed with one or more losses by USC and two or three losses by Washington. If USC sweeps and Washington wins two or three, Oregon State finishes fourth. And the Beavs would play the Huskies or Trojans in Scottsdale. If USC sweeps or Washington wins two or three (but not both), Oregon State finishes third. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. Oregon lost and can finish no better than fifth. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, or Washington to finish fourth. Washington won and can no longer finish fifth. It is possible for Arizona State, USC, or Washington to finish fifth. Washington owns the tiebreaker over Arizona State. USC will finish ahead of Oregon. Washington defeated California to reduce UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament to one. The Bruins' spot in the Pac-12 Tournament would be in trouble, if UCLA loses the series in Phoenix this weekend. Now that Utah is done getting beat by Cal Poly, we can start looking at the Utes' scenarios. Utah needs to win the series against Oregon to stand a chance. If the Utes sweep the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu lose their series. If the Utes beat the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu get swept. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 19, 2023 16:29:09 GMT -8
1. Stanford 20-7 - 2. Washington 16-10 3 1/2 3. Oregon State 18-12 3 1/2 4. USC 16-11 4 5. Arizona State 14-12 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-13 6 7. UCLA 11-14-1 8 8. Wazzu 10-16 9 1/2 9. Arizona 10-17 10 10. California 10-17 10 11. Utah 8-18-1 11 1/2 The race for #2. The Huskies control their own destiny. Washington wins the two-seed with a sweep at home against Cal or a 2-1 finish and one or more losses by USC. If the Huskies falter, the Trojans control their destiny. USC wins the two-seed with a sweep in Tucson and one or more losses by Washington. Oregon State's magic number is two. The Beavs clinch the two seed with one or more losses by USC and two or three losses by Washington. If USC sweeps and Washington wins two or three, Oregon State finishes fourth. And the Beavs would play the Huskies or Trojans in Scottsdale. If USC sweeps or Washington wins two or three (but not both), Oregon State finishes third. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon, USC, or Washington to finish fourth. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon, UCLA, USC, or Washington to finish fifth. The Bruins can finish no higher than fifth. Washington owns the tiebreaker over Arizona State. USC owns the tiebreaker with Oregon. The Trojans are now two games up over the Ducks and own the tiebreaker. A loss by Oregon, or a win by USC guarantees that USC will finish ahead of Oregon. UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament is two. The Bruins' spot in the Pac-12 Tournament would be in trouble, if UCLA loses the series in Phoenix this weekend. Cal was leapfrogged by both Arizona and Wazzu into 10th place. Wazzu is in eighth place. Arizona holds the tiebreaker over Cal and sits in ninth. Now that Utah is done getting beat by Cal Poly, we can start looking at the Utes' scenarios. Utah needs to win the series against Oregon to stand a chance. If the Utes sweep the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu lose their series. If the Utes beat the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu get swept. rgeorge and ricke71 together nail the Pools. Arizona owns the tiebreaker over California. USC is set to get a huge RPI infusion at the end of the season with four road games. The Trojans would be great to play in the Tournament for that reason. UCLA or Wazzu would be good to play in the 7-9 seeds. 1. Stanford 21-7 - 2. Washington 17-10 3 1/2 3. Oregon State 18-12 4 4. USC 16-11 4 1/2 5. Arizona State 15-12 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-14 7 7. UCLA 11-15-1 98. Wazzu 10-17 10 1/2 9. Arizona 10-17 10 1/2 10. California 10-18 11 11. Utah 9-18-1 11 1/2 The race for #2. The Huskies control their own destiny. Washington wins the two-seed with a sweep at home against Cal or a 2-1 finish and one or more losses by USC. If the Huskies falter, the Trojans control their destiny. USC wins the two-seed with a sweep in Tucson and one or more losses by Washington. Oregon State's magic number is still two. The Beavs clinch the two seed with one or more losses by USC and two or three losses by Washington. If USC sweeps and Washington wins two or three, Oregon State finishes fourth. And the Beavs would play the Huskies or Trojans in Scottsdale. If USC sweeps or Washington wins two or three (but not both), Oregon State finishes third. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. Oregon lost and can finish no better than fifth. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, or Washington to finish fourth. Washington won and can no longer finish fifth. It is possible for Arizona State, USC, or Washington to finish fifth. Washington owns the tiebreaker over Arizona State. USC will finish ahead of Oregon. Washington defeated California to reduce UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament to one. The Bruins' spot in the Pac-12 Tournament would be in trouble, if UCLA loses the series in Phoenix this weekend. Now that Utah is done getting beat by Cal Poly, we can start looking at the Utes' scenarios. Utah needs to win the series against Oregon to stand a chance. If the Utes sweep the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu lose their series. If the Utes beat the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu get swept. Arizona beat USC. The result eliminates USC from the two-seed race. Oregon State or Washington will finish second in the Pac-12. Washington will win second place with a win against California, and Oregon State will win the two-seed with two California wins. USC could still finish third with two wins and two California wins. In all other scenarios, Oregon State and Washington will finish second and third or vice versa. 4-6 is still muddled. Utah is hanging on by a thread. The only way that Utah gets into the Pac-12 Tournament is with a win tomorrow and two losses by both California and Wazzu. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 0:09:32 GMT -8
1. Stanford 21-7 - 2. Washington 17-10 3 1/2 3. Oregon State 18-12 4 4. USC 16-11 4 1/2 5. Arizona State 15-12 5 1/2 6. Oregon 14-14 7 7. UCLA 11-15-1 98. Wazzu 10-17 10 1/2 9. Arizona 10-17 10 1/2 10. California 10-18 11 11. Utah 9-18-1 11 1/2 The race for #2. The Huskies control their own destiny. Washington wins the two-seed with a sweep at home against Cal or a 2-1 finish and one or more losses by USC. If the Huskies falter, the Trojans control their destiny. USC wins the two-seed with a sweep in Tucson and one or more losses by Washington. Oregon State's magic number is still two. The Beavs clinch the two seed with one or more losses by USC and two or three losses by Washington. If USC sweeps and Washington wins two or three, Oregon State finishes fourth. And the Beavs would play the Huskies or Trojans in Scottsdale. If USC sweeps or Washington wins two or three (but not both), Oregon State finishes third. In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022. The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional. Oregon lost and can finish no better than fifth. It is possible for Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, or Washington to finish fourth. Washington won and can no longer finish fifth. It is possible for Arizona State, USC, or Washington to finish fifth. Washington owns the tiebreaker over Arizona State. USC will finish ahead of Oregon. Washington defeated California to reduce UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament to one. The Bruins' spot in the Pac-12 Tournament would be in trouble, if UCLA loses the series in Phoenix this weekend. Now that Utah is done getting beat by Cal Poly, we can start looking at the Utes' scenarios. Utah needs to win the series against Oregon to stand a chance. If the Utes sweep the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu lose their series. If the Utes beat the Ducks, Utah would clinch a spot, if two or three of Arizona, California, and Wazzu get swept. Arizona beat USC. The result eliminates USC from the two-seed race. Oregon State or Washington will finish second in the Pac-12. Washington will win second place with a win against California, and Oregon State will win the two-seed with two California wins. USC could still finish third with two wins and two California wins. In all other scenarios, Oregon State and Washington will finish second and third or vice versa. 4-6 is still muddled. Utah is hanging on by a thread. The only way that Utah gets into the Pac-12 Tournament is with a win tomorrow and two losses by both California and Wazzu. 1 Stanford
2 Washington finishes second with a win over Cal. Oregon State finishes second with a Cal win over Washington.
3 Washington finishes third with a loss. Oregon State finishes third with a Washington win over Cal.
4 Arizona State finishes fourth with a win over UCLA and a USC loss. USC finishes fourth in all other scenarios.
5 Oregon finishes fifth with a win over Utah and an Arizona State loss. USC finishes fifth with a loss and an Arizona State win over UCLA. Arizona State finishes fifth in all other scenarios.
6 Arizona State finishes sixth with a loss and an Oregon win over Utah. Oregon finishes sixth in all other scenarios.
7 Arizona finishes seventh with a win and a UCLA loss. UCLA finishes seventh in all other scenarios.
8 UCLA finishes eighth with a loss and an Arizona win. Arizona finishes eighth in all other scenarios.
9 Wazzu finishes ninth with a win and a Cal loss. Cal finishes ninth in all other scenarios.
With California's win, Utah was eliminated.
I generally think that it would be to Oregon State's benefit to be in a Pool that does not include either Arizona school. The best pool is probably the one that includes UCLA and USC. To that end, the best scenario probably is California over Washington, Arizona State over USC, and Arizona over UCLA. The second-best pool is probably one that includes Arizona and Oregon: Oregon over Utah, California over Washington, and UCLA over Arizona State. After that, I would like to see Arizona and USC and Arizona State and UCLA. Arizona and Arizona State is the nightmare scenario. Oregon was eliminated after two games in 2022 with the one-two punch of Arizona and Arizona State, missed out on a Eugene Regional as a result. Stanford beat Arizona State and then Arizona twice (Stanford won by a run, and Arizona finished the game with two on in the ninth in the semifinal game). |
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Post by ricke71 on May 20, 2023 8:34:20 GMT -8
Thanks for breaking that down Wilky. This beats late-Sept. MLB scoreboard watching all to hell. Both of the "best two" scenarios rely on a Cal win over UW today. It's worth taking a look at best/worst scenario if the somewhat more likely (UW over Cal) occurs today. Then OSU = 3rd place PAC-12. #3 goes into a pool along with #4 and #7. Unfortunately, that has the potential for the " nightmare scenario": "Arizona State finishes fourth with a win over UCLA and a USC loss."
"Arizona finishes seventh with a win and a UCLA loss." Cal, UW, UCLA and ASU all begin today at noon. USC and UA play at 6 pm.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 9:10:09 GMT -8
Thanks for breaking that down Wilky. This beats late-Sept. MLB scoreboard watching all to hell. Both of the "best two" scenarios rely on a Cal win over UW today. It's worth taking a look at best/worst scenario if the somewhat more likely (UW over Cal) occurs today. Then OSU = 3rd place PAC-12. #3 goes into a pool along with #4 and #7. Unfortunately, that has the potential for the " nightmare scenario": "Arizona State finishes fourth with a win over UCLA and a USC loss."
"Arizona finishes seventh with a win and a UCLA loss." Cal, UW, UCLA and ASU all begin today at noon. USC and UA play at 6 pm.
I would also add that the other benefit to Oregon State winning is that Pool B starts play Tuesday through Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Pool C starts play Tuesday through Thursday at 2:30 p.m. Pool A (Stanford's pool) starts play Tuesday through Thursday at 7:00 p.m. The weather in Scottsdale is set to be 94-97 degrees. Tuesday will be the hot day, but the top three seeds do not play on Tuesday. It generally gets cooler each day. If Washington wins, Oregon State cannot be in the same pool with Oregon. Oregon State would want to play UCLA and USC. So, if Washington wins, you would root for UCLA and USC to beat Arizona State and Arizona, respectively. |
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Post by zeroposter on May 20, 2023 12:10:55 GMT -8
Cal up 2-1 in bottom of the 4th. Go Cal.
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Post by zeroposter on May 20, 2023 12:56:38 GMT -8
8-4 Cal and the fine, Dog closer is toast in the 6th.
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Post by zeroposter on May 20, 2023 13:05:47 GMT -8
Go Cal.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 13:13:07 GMT -8
Arizona beat USC. The result eliminates USC from the two-seed race. Oregon State or Washington will finish second in the Pac-12. Washington will win second place with a win against California, and Oregon State will win the two-seed with two California wins. USC could still finish third with two wins and two California wins. In all other scenarios, Oregon State and Washington will finish second and third or vice versa. 4-6 is still muddled. Utah is hanging on by a thread. The only way that Utah gets into the Pac-12 Tournament is with a win tomorrow and two losses by both California and Wazzu. 1 Stanford
2 Washington finishes second with a win over Cal. Oregon State finishes second with a Cal win over Washington.
3 Washington finishes third with a loss. Oregon State finishes third with a Washington win over Cal.
4 Arizona State finishes fourth with a win over UCLA and a USC loss. USC finishes fourth in all other scenarios.
5 Oregon finishes fifth with a win over Utah and an Arizona State loss. USC finishes fifth with a loss and an Arizona State win over UCLA. Arizona State finishes fifth in all other scenarios.
6 Arizona State finishes sixth with a loss and an Oregon win over Utah. Oregon finishes sixth in all other scenarios.
7 Arizona finishes seventh with a win and a UCLA loss. UCLA finishes seventh in all other scenarios.
8 UCLA finishes eighth with a loss and an Arizona win. Arizona finishes eighth in all other scenarios.
9 Wazzu finishes ninth with a win and a Cal loss. Cal finishes ninth in all other scenarios.
With California's win, Utah was eliminated.
I generally think that it would be to Oregon State's benefit to be in a Pool that does not include either Arizona school. The best pool is probably the one that includes UCLA and USC. To that end, the best scenario probably is California over Washington, Arizona State over USC, and Arizona over UCLA. The second-best pool is probably one that includes Arizona and Oregon: Oregon over Utah, California over Washington, and UCLA over Arizona State. After that, I would like to see Arizona and USC and Arizona State and UCLA. Arizona and Arizona State is the nightmare scenario. Oregon was eliminated after two games in 2022 with the one-two punch of Arizona and Arizona State, missed out on a Eugene Regional as a result. Stanford beat Arizona State and then Arizona twice (Stanford won by a run, and Arizona finished the game with two on in the ninth in the semifinal game).Oregon beats Utah 15-3. Oregon is the five seed with a UCLA win over Arizona State, and Arizona is the eight. If that California-Washington score holds up, I still think that the most optimal scenario is for Arizona State to beat UCLA and then Arizona to beat USC. An Arizona State win guarantees that Oregon finishes sixth. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 13:14:17 GMT -8
Washington immediately gets one back in the bottom of the sixth, 11-5. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 13:50:42 GMT -8
1 Stanford
2 Washington finishes second with a win over Cal. Oregon State finishes second with a Cal win over Washington.
3 Washington finishes third with a loss. Oregon State finishes third with a Washington win over Cal.
4 Arizona State finishes fourth with a win over UCLA and a USC loss. USC finishes fourth in all other scenarios.
5 Oregon finishes fifth with a win over Utah and an Arizona State loss. USC finishes fifth with a loss and an Arizona State win over UCLA. Arizona State finishes fifth in all other scenarios.
6 Arizona State finishes sixth with a loss and an Oregon win over Utah. Oregon finishes sixth in all other scenarios.
7 Arizona finishes seventh with a win and a UCLA loss. UCLA finishes seventh in all other scenarios.
8 UCLA finishes eighth with a loss and an Arizona win. Arizona finishes eighth in all other scenarios.
9 Wazzu finishes ninth with a win and a Cal loss. Cal finishes ninth in all other scenarios.
With California's win, Utah was eliminated.
I generally think that it would be to Oregon State's benefit to be in a Pool that does not include either Arizona school. The best pool is probably the one that includes UCLA and USC. To that end, the best scenario probably is California over Washington, Arizona State over USC, and Arizona over UCLA. The second-best pool is probably one that includes Arizona and Oregon: Oregon over Utah, California over Washington, and UCLA over Arizona State. After that, I would like to see Arizona and USC and Arizona State and UCLA. Arizona and Arizona State is the nightmare scenario. Oregon was eliminated after two games in 2022 with the one-two punch of Arizona and Arizona State, missed out on a Eugene Regional as a result. Stanford beat Arizona State and then Arizona twice (Stanford won by a run, and Arizona finished the game with two on in the ninth in the semifinal game).Oregon beats Utah 15-3. Oregon is the five seed with a UCLA win over Arizona State, and Arizona is the eight. If that California-Washington score holds up, I still think that the most optimal scenario is for Arizona State to beat UCLA and then Arizona to beat USC. An Arizona State win guarantees that Oregon finishes sixth. And Arizona State beats UCLA 2-1. Had UCLA beat Arizona State, 4-8 would be set. Instead, only the six-seed is set. Oregon finishes sixth and will play Stanford AND Cal or Wazzu. There are two scenarios for the 4-8 seeds now. If Arizona wins: 4 Arizona State
5 USC
6 Oregon
7 Arizona
8 UCLA
If USC wins:
4 USC
5 Arizona State
6 Oregon
7 UCLA
8 Arizona
If that California @ Washington score holds up, cheer on Arizona to set up matchups with UCLA and USC. Oregon State would play UCLA on Wednesday and USC on Thursday.
If USC beats Arizona, Oregon State would play Arizona on Wednesday and Arizona State on Thursday.
All of those games would be at 10:00 a.m.
If Washington can overcome that 15-8 deficit in the eighth, the same result creates opposite matchups. The other difference would be that each game is at 2:30 p.m. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2023 14:40:05 GMT -8
Oregon beats Utah 15-3. Oregon is the five seed with a UCLA win over Arizona State, and Arizona is the eight. If that California-Washington score holds up, I still think that the most optimal scenario is for Arizona State to beat UCLA and then Arizona to beat USC. An Arizona State win guarantees that Oregon finishes sixth. And Arizona State beats UCLA 2-1. Had UCLA beat Arizona State, 4-8 would be set. Instead, only the six-seed is set. Oregon finishes sixth and will play Stanford AND Cal or Wazzu. There are two scenarios for the 4-8 seeds now. If Arizona wins: 4 Arizona State
5 USC
6 Oregon
7 Arizona
8 UCLA
If USC wins:
4 USC
5 Arizona State
6 Oregon
7 UCLA
8 Arizona
If that California @ Washington score holds up, cheer on Arizona to set up matchups with UCLA and USC. Oregon State would play UCLA on Wednesday and USC on Thursday.
If USC beats Arizona, Oregon State would play Arizona on Wednesday and Arizona State on Thursday.
All of those games would be at 10:00 a.m.
If Washington can overcome that 15-8 deficit in the eighth, the same result creates opposite matchups. The other difference would be that each game is at 2:30 p.m.California holds on to win 16-11. That clinches the 2, 3, and 9 seeds. Oregon State will finish second, and Washington will finish third. California finishes ninth and will play Oregon and then Stanford. Oregon State's first two games will be at 10:00 a.m. If Arizona wins, Oregon State plays UCLA on Wednesday and then USC on Thursday. If USC wins, Oregon State plays Arizona on Wednesday and then Arizona State on Thursday. If Stanford does not finish 1-1, Oregon State advances to the semifinal with at least one win. |
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Post by irimi on May 20, 2023 14:51:50 GMT -8
Didn't know you guys had taken over this thread for the Cal game. Glad you were cheering them on!
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