Pac-12 Standings

1.    Stanford         10-2       -
1.    Arizona State 10-2       -
3.    USC                9-3       1
4.    UCLA             8-5-1  2 1/2
5.    Oregon           7-5        3
6.    Washington    6-6        4

7.    Oregon State  7-8    4 1/2
8.    Wazzu            5-9       6
9.    Arizona           5-10  6 1/2
10.  California      3-11-1    8
11.  Utah               3-12   8 1/2

Stanford has only won one more game than Oregon State on the season but is up 4 1/2 games in conference play.  Stanford plays Texas Tech in two games at Sunken Diamond midweek and then plays Oregon in a three game set at PK.

Arizona State is currently sitting at 10-2 but has played the four worst teams in the pac-12 in Arizona, California, Utah, and Wazzu.  Arizona State plays at GCU Ballpark tomorrow and then three in Seattle this weekend before playing midweek in Tucson on the 19th.  Oregon State's next road trip is down to down to Phoenix in 11 days.  Right now it looks like highs in the high 80s and low 90s and windy.

USC swept Loyola-Marymount and San Diego State and is now 11-7-1 in "nonconference" play.  USC beat Stanford at Dedeaux but has otherwise feasted on overmatched Pac-12 opponents, taking seven of nine from three of the four worst Pac-12 teams in California, Utah, and Wazzu.  USC plays Cal State Fullerton tomorrow and then will travel up to Goss to play three in the Trojans' biggest road series since going 0-2-1 at Plainsman Park against Auburn.  Hopefully the Trojans are looking ahead to the big series against the Bruins the weekend following.

UCLA is streaky.  The Bruins started 16-3, dropped five straight, and went 3-0-1 against Long Beach State and Utah over the past six days.  Three of those went to extra innings, including the 10-10 tie in 11 innings.  UCLA heads to Malibu to play at Pepperdine tomorrow followed by three against UC Davis and one against Irvine before the series against USC at Dedeaux.  The Bruins have played three of the four worst Pac-12 teams so far in Arizona, Utah, and Wazzu and will have a back-loaded schedule to finish.

Speaking of streaky, Oregon won 4, lost 3, won 5, lost 4, and won 11 before losing the final two to Oregon State.  Oregon feasted on the two bad Pac-12 teams in Arizona and Wazzu but lost both series to the good Pac-12 teams in Oregon State and UCLA.  Oregon plays San Francisco twice before playing Stanford at PK.

Washington beat Utah and won two of three at Jackie Robinson but have dropped the last two series to Oregon State and hapless Arizona (who may be heating up).  The Huskies now get the three best teams in the conference one after the other: Arizona State, @ Stanford, and USC with only a midweek game against Seattle between the Stanford and USC series to break it up.

Oregon State gets Gonzaga tomorrow and then will play the two-best remaining teams left on the schedule in USC and @ Arizona State.  Oregon State then gets relative lightweights, Arizona and Utah, at Goss with a midweek Oregon game between them.  The Beavers need to crush the Trojans and Devils, if they hope to have any shot at a Pac-12 Regular Season Championship.

Wazzu has navigated a very difficult schedule so far and gets Arizona, Santa Clara, and @ Utah over the next three weekends.  The Cougars could still make a run at a middle of the conference finish, if they get hot over the next five weekends.  Wazzu finishes with Stanford in Pullman.

Arizona started off strong against California but got swept by UCLA, Arizona State, and Oregon in successive weekends.  The Huskies took game one down at Hi Corbett, but the Wildcats rebounded by winning the next two games 12-4 and 13-1.  Arizona now gets a trip to Pullman and a home series against Utah to right the ship leading up to the trip to Goss, which seems to be terrible timing.  The Wildcats then play Air Force and finish with a trip to Sunken Diamond and a home series against USC.

Utah has been tough on Sundays.  No Sunday game this weekend, but they did tie UCLA 10-10 in 11 innings on Saturday at Jackie Robinson.  The Utes' three wins and a tie in conference play have all come on series' finales.  Utah gets the four worst teams in the Pac-12 (at this point) in California, Arizona, and Wazzu over the next three weekends before heading to Goss.  Like Arizona, Utah could heat up in the weekends before the trip to Goss and cause problems.  If the Utes are going to avoid missing the Pac-12 Tournament, they need to do well over the next three series, because they finish with Oregon State, Cal Poly, and Oregon the final three weekends.

California has been tough on Saturdays, winning three consecutive Saturdays.  The Bears continued that by taking a 3-2 lead with two outs and a runner on first in the ninth against the Cardinal on Saturday.  California blew it in true California fashion, walking a batter in five pitches to put two on and then piping a 2-2 pitch (eighth pitch of the at bat) to Cole Hinkelman, who hit one barely over the fence in left center for a 5-3 lead.  The Bears loaded 'em up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs but hit an infield fly to the shortstop to end the game.  I am not sure how California responds.  California gets Nevada at Berkeley and St. Mary's in Moraga before travelling to Salt Lake to take on Utah in the Pillow Fight of the Week.

1.    Stanford          19-6      -
2.    Washington    14-10 4 1/2
3.    Arizona State  14-10 4 1/2
4.    Oregon State  16-12 4 1/2
5.    USC                14-11    5
6.    Oregon           14-11    5
7.    UCLA            11-12-1   7
8.    Wazzu            9-15    9 1/2
9.    Arizona           9-16      10
10.  California        9-16      10
11.   Utah              8-18-1 11 1/2

Stanford's magic number is now two.  Oregon State's loss and Stanford's win eliminates the Beavers from the regular season conference championship.  Oregon State's last Pac-12 Championship was 2017.  The seven year Conference Championship drought will match the drought between 2006 and 2013, the longest Conference Championship drought since between 1986 and 2005.

Alright, raise your hand if you thought that Washington would be in second place in the Pac-12 with exactly one week left in the regular season.  And now put your hands back down, liars!

Arizona State and Washington split their two games, and the third game was rained out in Seattle.  The tiebreaker right now is record against Stanford, and Washington won one game.

UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament is three.

Wazzu leapfrogged Arizona and California into eighth place.  Arizona has the tiebreaker over California.

Right now:

Pool A:    Arizona, Oregon, and Stanford
Pool B:    USC, Washington, and Wazzu
Pool C:    Arizona State, Oregon State, and UCLA

The one team that I do not want Oregon State to play is Arizona State, so that is awful.  UCLA has the highest RPI of the bottom three teams, which would not be a terrible thing, if Oregon State still means to host.  Of course, with the way the Bruins crushed the Beavs tonight, I am not sure that that is a great thing.

I ran the Pac-12 through the Warren Nolan simulator, and I got:


Pool A:    Arizona, Arizona State, and Stanford

Pool B:    USC, Washington, and Wazzu

Pool C:    Oregon, Oregon State, and UCLA

That is not terrible.  Stanford would have its hands full with the Arizona schools.  Oregon State would trade Arizona State for Oregon, which sounds like a good trade to me.

I guess that we'll see.

1.    Stanford        20-6        -
2.    Washington   15-10  4 1/2
3.    Oregon State 17-12 4 1/2
4.    USC               15-11    5
5.    Arizona State 14-11  5 1/2
6.    Oregon           14-12    6
7.    UCLA            11-13-1   8
8.    California        10-16   10
9.    Wazzu             9-16 10 1/2
10.   Arizona           9-17    11
11.   Utah              8-18-1  12

I was wrong.  Stanford's magic number was one and now is zero.  Arizona State and Oregon's combined losses on Friday reduced Stanford's magic number to one.  The Cardinal have won consecutive Pac-12 Regular Season Championships for the first time since 2003 and 2004.

Having decided that, we're in a race for #2.  Oregon State is two or three wins up over everyone but everyone else has three games in hand.  The Beavers' magic number with the Huskies is three.  Washington needs at least two losses or three with a UCLA win over Oregon State.  The Beavers' magic number with the Trojans is also officially three, but Oregon State holds all tiebreakers with USC, so it is more like two.  The Beavers' magic number with the Devils is two.  The Beavers' magic number with the Ducks is again officially two, but Oregon State holds all tiebreakers with Oregon, so it is more like one.

In the Pac-12, Oregon State has finished second in the regular season behind Stanford twice: 2018 and 2022.  The Beavers hosted both seasons and hosted a Corvallis Super Regional.

Washington clinched its tiebreaker over Arizona State.  The Huskies are now a game up over the Devils and own the tiebreaker.  

USC already had the tiebreaker with Oregon.  The Trojans are now a game up over the Ducks and own the tiebreaker.

UCLA's magic number to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Tournament was three but is now two with Stanford's win over Arizona.

California leapfrogged Arizona and Wazzu into eighth place.  Arizona has fallen into 10th.  The Wildcats still has the tiebreaker over the Golden Bears, if Arizona decide to start winning again.

One last thought.  The Arizona State @ Washington game is officially "canceled."  It cannot be made up or replayed.  The same is not true of the UCLA @ Wazzu game.  That game is "postponed."  If one or both of UCLA and Wazzu are in trouble of missing the Pac-12 Tournament, that game may still be played...............I think.

Right now:

Pool A:    Oregon, Stanford, and Wazzu
Pool B:    Arizona State, California, and Washington
Pool C:    Oregon State, UCLA, and USC

The one team that I do not want Oregon State to play is Arizona State, and crisis averted there.  Of the current 4-6 seed teams, I would most want to play USC, so that works out great.  (Although the Trojans look like they may be heating up.)  UCLA has the highest RPI of the bottom three teams, which would not be a terrible thing, if Oregon State still means to host.  Of course, with the way the Bruins have played the Beavs, I am not sure that that is a great thing.  

I ran the Pac-12 through the Warren Nolan simulator, and I got:

Pool A:    California, Stanford, and USC
Pool B:    Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon State
Pool C:    Oregon, UCLA, and Washington

And that is awful.  Oregon State playing both Arizona and Arizona State in Scottsdale.  Just awful.  If the Beavs can lock down the two-seed, I am going to start rooting to ensure that Arizona and Arizona State do not land on the five- and eight-seeds.

I guess that we'll see.

If you're not 1st for the regular season title, all that matters is the pool matchups and getting to the final 4 teams.

The seeding will be by winning % not GB, but yes UW gets 2nd with 2-1 finish.

As of now 3rd place OSU would be in Pool C with SC & UCLA I believe.

Pool B UW, ASU, WSU
Pool A Furd, ucks, Cal

Except for handing out Regional Host spots.  An Oregon State, which finishes second in the Pac-12 makes a Corvallis Regional an easier sell.  Of course, getting to the Pac-12 Championship Game probably trumps a second-place finish.