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Post by standerd on Feb 21, 2023 18:47:10 GMT -8
Yes jdogge, I've left out a number of external factors including such things as player illness and injury, loss of players to the portal (which only started in 2018), constancy in player performance, relative overall skill of each player, changes of coaching staff, etc. These factors affect all teams through time at different levels of intensity. I don't think that factors such as value of institutional degree, institutional national academic ranking, television market, or alumni capacity have that big of an overall influence on what happens on the basketball court other than some players might be attracted to certain schools by these factors. Other players are attracted to certain schools based on the "vibe" of the program or by the coach or by family history with the school, or by the opportunities of the program that fit their needs as a player. What I was trying to demonstrate, given that all programs are affected by various types of external factors, that most teams in the PAC12 have had relatively similar types of journeys over time, and that it has become, it appears, more difficult to predict how a team will perform in any given year. I find that fascinating. standerd and jdogge,
My congratulations and admiration to both of you gentlemen for the outstanding analysis and clear explanation of the research you both did.
So, am I correct (or not) in assuming that you both feel that up to this point even with the Beav's rapid decline in conference standing, the current coaching staff should be allowed to continue and given more time to "right the ship"?
If not, why not?
Again, ,many thanks!
Thanks for the question skyrider. Given the trajectory of the OSU win-loss record over the last 13 years, and the apparent emerging talent of the team, I would go 1 more year to see how the team performs, given there are no to minimal transfers. If there are transfers, then I would have many questions. |
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Post by sparty on Feb 21, 2023 18:50:03 GMT -8
standerd and jdogge,
My congratulations and admiration to both of you gentlemen for the outstanding analysis and clear explanation of the research you both did.
So, am I correct (or not) in assuming that you both feel that up to this point even with the Beav's rapid decline in conference standing, the current coaching staff should be allowed to continue and given more time to "right the ship"?
If not, why not?
Again, ,many thanks!
Thanks for the question skyrider. Given the trajectory of the OSU win-loss record over the last 13 years, and the apparent emerging talent of the team, I would go 1 more year to see how the team performs, given there are no to minimal transfers. If there are transfers, then I would have many questions. They are not going to get rid of Scott. Need to focus money on the mens side for a hire there. Secondly, the issues with Pac-12 media rights and the if the conference is on verge of falling apart. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Feb 21, 2023 19:38:30 GMT -8
My wife firmly believes that Katie leaving was why both Kennedy and Taylor booked. Katie worked with the post players in practice and she was very involved working with the players during games. More than one player said they view her as a big sister. Your wife could definitely be right. |
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Post by jdogge on Feb 21, 2023 22:06:29 GMT -8
Yes jdogge, I've left out a number of external factors including such things as player illness and injury, loss of players to the portal (which only started in 2018), constancy in player performance, relative overall skill of each player, changes of coaching staff, etc. These factors affect all teams through time at different levels of intensity. I don't think that factors such as value of institutional degree, institutional national academic ranking, television market, or alumni capacity have that big of an overall influence on what happens on the basketball court other than some players might be attracted to certain schools by these factors. Other players are attracted to certain schools based on the "vibe" of the program or by the coach or by family history with the school, or by the opportunities of the program that fit their needs as a player. What I was trying to demonstrate, given that all programs are affected by various types of external factors, that most teams in the PAC12 have had relatively similar types of journeys over time, and that it has become, it appears, more difficult to predict how a team will perform in any given year. I find that fascinating. standerd and jdogge,
My congratulations and admiration to both of you gentlemen for the outstanding analysis and clear explanation of the research you both did.
So, am I correct (or not) in assuming that you both feel that up to this point even with the Beav's rapid decline in conference standing, the current coaching staff should be allowed to continue and given more time to "right the ship"?
If not, why not?
Again, ,many thanks!
I'm not sure classifying it a "rapid decline." If anything -- and I believe the data I posted the other day suggests -- that the Pac 12 has, conference wide, become stronger. If that is, in fact, the case, I would argue that OSU has not kept pace with the arms race given all of the potential variables standerd and I have demonstrated. Fan boards have a tendency to accept simple explanations to make sense of complex scenarios. I am posting this information again. Here's some data for the Pac 12 nationally. Pre-portal and post portal. 2014-2015 Final Rankings: ASU (9), OSU (10), Stan (14), Cal (24) Ave. Final poll position 14.25 NC W-L 118 - 57 .674 2015-2016 OSU (6), UCLA (10), ASU (11), Stan (13) Ave. poll position 10.0 NC W-L 139 - 46 .751 2016-2017 Stan (6), OSU (8), UW (12), UCLA (15) Ave. poll position 10.25 NC W-L 149 - 42 .780 2017-2018 UO (6), UCLA (9), OSU (13), Stan (15) Ave. poll position 13.25 NC W-L 123 - 56 .687 2018-2019 Stan (6), UO (7), OSU (11), UCLA (20), UA (22) Ave. poll position 13.6 NC W-L 139 - 43 .764 Transfer Portal, established in October 2018 First Effective Year 2019-2020 UO (2), Stan (7), UCLA (10), UA (13), OSU (14), ASU (25) Ave. poll position 11.83 NC W-L 126 - 33 .792 2020-2021 COVID Year, incomplete year 2022-2023 Season Not Completed From 2016-2017 to 2017-2018 Pac 12 Non-Conference win-loss percentage dropped from .780 to .687. But, 2018-2019 was the beginning of the COVID transfers. NC W-L% increased from .687 to .764. After the first Portal free for all it jumped to .792 [in 2019-2020]. That suggests that the Portal made the Pac 12 stronger, but not uniformly. I say suggests because 2020-2021 was COVID and 2022-2023 is incomplete. This is why such debates are difficult on a fan board where nuance -- as demonstrated by a proper regression analysis -- is not readily accepted. Nuance in data analysis does not lend itself to the quick draw environment of a fan board. |
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