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Post by hoopheritic on Feb 21, 2023 10:16:11 GMT -8
We've all seen the posts on here about how the team is over-coached and controlled. I've even mentioned it on occasion. I've also seen posts adding up analytics to try to come to a conclusion about what stats equate to wins and losses. Data can help but it doesn't tell the whole story.
I've been in the gym for about 10 games this season, and watched most of the others on TV, and I think the key issue is lack of chemistry. We have the talent so why isn't it working? Lack of chemistry. Because of that lack the coach has to be much more prescriptive and that has snowballed on itself through the season. This is why at appears the team is over-coached.
The evidence of this, for most teams I see, is the lack of the ability to manufacture runs. You have to be able to put together runs to win games in this conference. You can't simply grind away in the half court and then play good defense. That has kept us close in MANY games where we play fine during the middle ~25 minutes of games which is where we do pretty good at utilizing our posts and hitting some shots out of core actions.
It's the start and finish of games where chemistry takes over. At the beginning things are happening fast and opposing teams are focused on defending based on the scout...so it's easy to break plays. To score at volume in the hectic early part of a game you need improvisation that is enabled by team chemistry. Likewise, at the close of games teams ratchet up the defense and improvisation takes over again if you want to win.
Where did the team go wrong on chemistry?
When it was learned that we were only returning 4 last year I saw this board go crazy on how we needed an upperclassman PG from the portal or we're going to lose every game. We kind of got one; Bendu. Great athlete. Elite defender. Solid role player. Not a primary scorer. Also, not a PG. I was actually excited at the prospect of a lock down 3-4 position defender who would come off the bench and solve defensive issues.
The team got off to a great start; we had no business winning the Hawaii game and everything was clicking through the first four games. Granted, not great competition. They looked like they were genuinely having fun playing basketball, which is absolutely what you need to start the season.
Then we went to the PK and started Bendu on heavy minutes. The rest of the team was visibly deferring to her and nearly paralyzed on offense. Even TVO. Some of them were in elementary school when she started her college career, they weren't going to assert themselves on offense with her experience. Now we've put the ball in her hand in a way she has never been asked; primary ball handler and key scoring option.
We stopped progressing and growing together as a team at the PK. Bendu has been misused. I see her as a 6th man to come in and put the clamps on problem matchups. Not a primary scoring option and certainly not a PG.
Since then, among all the weird lineups that we've seen, in an attempt to stimulate some chemistry and manufacture runs the one thing that hasn't been tried: Don't start Yeaney. Bring her off the bench.
Our primary scoring option, TVO, is already not good at making her teammates better and then we add a "PG" who isn't really a PG. This team was doomed from the beginning. The Bendu experiment hasn't worked.
We should have grabbed a couple role players from the portal and then focused on developing the core players we have. Now I'm worried we're going to have to do it all again because I can't imagine we don't see some painful transfers.
TVO and AJ played amazing in the early season because they are very good at improvising. Now we see AJ struggle because she isn't a system player but rather a creator. TVO is also struggling a bit as we devolve into highly prescriptive sets (injury not withstanding). These are the kind of players you need to open and close games. Then rely on actions and post work to carry you through the middle. Those two improvising with Martha at the point and Lily and Adlee hitting 3s; that's how you manufacture runs. The future is bright if we stay together but this year was tanked in a mistaken effort to try and be a good team THIS year.
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Post by hawkeye2000 on Feb 21, 2023 11:53:13 GMT -8
We've all seen the posts on here about how the team is over-coached and controlled. I've even mentioned it on occasion. I've also seen posts adding up analytics to try to come to a conclusion about what stats equate to wins and losses. Data can help but it doesn't tell the whole story. I've been in the gym for about 10 games this season, and watched most of the others on TV, and I think the key issue is lack of chemistry. We have the talent so why isn't it working? Lack of chemistry. Because of that lack the coach has to be much more prescriptive and that has snowballed on itself through the season. This is why at appears the team is over-coached. The evidence of this, for most teams I see, is the lack of the ability to manufacture runs. You have to be able to put together runs to win games in this conference. You can't simply grind away in the half court and then play good defense. That has kept us close in MANY games where we play fine during the middle ~25 minutes of games which is where we do pretty good at utilizing our posts and hitting some shots out of core actions. It's the start and finish of games where chemistry takes over. At the beginning things are happening fast and opposing teams are focused on defending based on the scout...so it's easy to break plays. To score at volume in the hectic early part of a game you need improvisation that is enabled by team chemistry. Likewise, at the close of games teams ratchet up the defense and improvisation takes over again if you want to win. Where did the team go wrong on chemistry? When it was learned that we were only returning 4 last year I saw this board go crazy on how we needed an upperclassman PG from the portal or we're going to lose every game. We kind of got one; Bendu. Great athlete. Elite defender. Solid role player. Not a primary scorer. Also, not a PG. I was actually excited at the prospect of a lock down 3-4 position defender who would come off the bench and solve defensive issues. The team got off to a great start; we had no business winning the Hawaii game and everything was clicking through the first four games. Granted, not great competition. They looked like they were genuinely having fun playing basketball, which is absolutely what you need to start the season. Then we went to the PK and started Bendu on heavy minutes. The rest of the team was visibly deferring to her and nearly paralyzed on offense. Even TVO. Some of them were in elementary school when she started her college career, they weren't going to assert themselves on offense with her experience. Now we've put the ball in her hand in a way she has never been asked; primary ball handler and key scoring option. We stopped progressing and growing together as a team at the PK. Bendu has been misused. I see her as a 6th man to come in and put the clamps on problem matchups. Not a primary scoring option and certainly not a PG. Since then, among all the weird lineups that we've seen, in an attempt to stimulate some chemistry and manufacture runs the one thing that hasn't been tried: Don't start Yeaney. Bring her off the bench. Our primary scoring option, TVO, is already not good at making her teammates better and then we add a "PG" who isn't really a PG. This team was doomed from the beginning. The Bendu experiment hasn't worked. We should have grabbed a couple role players from the portal and then focused on developing the core players we have. Now I'm worried we're going to have to do it all again because I can't imagine we don't see some painful transfers. TVO and AJ played amazing in the early season because they are very good at improvising. Now we see AJ struggle because she isn't a system player but rather a creator. TVO is also struggling a bit as we devolve into highly prescriptive sets (injury not withstanding). These are the kind of players you need to open and close games. Then rely on actions and post work to carry you through the middle. Those two improvising with Martha at the point and Lily and Adlee hitting 3s; that's how you manufacture runs. The future is bright if we stay together but this year was tanked in a mistaken effort to try and be a good team THIS year. hoopheritic : I like your post, your thoughts and ideas. I'm not the type to get into stats, numbers or details. But like to read general ideas and the mental part of the game. I agree with everybody on this site that says that Rueck has to find a way to keep this group together four years. I think this is what gave him the success in his earlier years. From what I read from earlier posts, His offense is somewhat complicated and takes the players some time to master. When the portal started that put a big hit on his program. TVO has lost confidence in her game. I don't know if she played pg or sg in high school but she is the type of player that needs to be in her favorite spot and receive the ball to shoot. I think in high school she didn't go up against the type of defenses that she sees in the Pac-12. I think this is true of several players that Rueck has brought in. They are good in high school and put up great numbers but the pac-12 is a whole different game. JMO |
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Post by grayman on Feb 21, 2023 12:02:19 GMT -8
We've all seen the posts on here about how the team is over-coached and controlled. I've even mentioned it on occasion. I've also seen posts adding up analytics to try to come to a conclusion about what stats equate to wins and losses. Data can help but it doesn't tell the whole story. I've been in the gym for about 10 games this season, and watched most of the others on TV, and I think the key issue is lack of chemistry. We have the talent so why isn't it working? Lack of chemistry. Because of that lack the coach has to be much more prescriptive and that has snowballed on itself through the season. This is why at appears the team is over-coached. The evidence of this, for most teams I see, is the lack of the ability to manufacture runs. You have to be able to put together runs to win games in this conference. You can't simply grind away in the half court and then play good defense. That has kept us close in MANY games where we play fine during the middle ~25 minutes of games which is where we do pretty good at utilizing our posts and hitting some shots out of core actions. It's the start and finish of games where chemistry takes over. At the beginning things are happening fast and opposing teams are focused on defending based on the scout...so it's easy to break plays. To score at volume in the hectic early part of a game you need improvisation that is enabled by team chemistry. Likewise, at the close of games teams ratchet up the defense and improvisation takes over again if you want to win. Where did the team go wrong on chemistry? When it was learned that we were only returning 4 last year I saw this board go crazy on how we needed an upperclassman PG from the portal or we're going to lose every game. We kind of got one; Bendu. Great athlete. Elite defender. Solid role player. Not a primary scorer. Also, not a PG. I was actually excited at the prospect of a lock down 3-4 position defender who would come off the bench and solve defensive issues. The team got off to a great start; we had no business winning the Hawaii game and everything was clicking through the first four games. Granted, not great competition. They looked like they were genuinely having fun playing basketball, which is absolutely what you need to start the season. Then we went to the PK and started Bendu on heavy minutes. The rest of the team was visibly deferring to her and nearly paralyzed on offense. Even TVO. Some of them were in elementary school when she started her college career, they weren't going to assert themselves on offense with her experience. Now we've put the ball in her hand in a way she has never been asked; primary ball handler and key scoring option. We stopped progressing and growing together as a team at the PK. Bendu has been misused. I see her as a 6th man to come in and put the clamps on problem matchups. Not a primary scoring option and certainly not a PG. Since then, among all the weird lineups that we've seen, in an attempt to stimulate some chemistry and manufacture runs the one thing that hasn't been tried: Don't start Yeaney. Bring her off the bench. Our primary scoring option, TVO, is already not good at making her teammates better and then we add a "PG" who isn't really a PG. This team was doomed from the beginning. The Bendu experiment hasn't worked. We should have grabbed a couple role players from the portal and then focused on developing the core players we have. Now I'm worried we're going to have to do it all again because I can't imagine we don't see some painful transfers. TVO and AJ played amazing in the early season because they are very good at improvising. Now we see AJ struggle because she isn't a system player but rather a creator. TVO is also struggling a bit as we devolve into highly prescriptive sets (injury not withstanding). These are the kind of players you need to open and close games. Then rely on actions and post work to carry you through the middle. Those two improvising with Martha at the point and Lily and Adlee hitting 3s; that's how you manufacture runs. The future is bright if we stay together but this year was tanked in a mistaken effort to try and be a good team THIS year. Yes, 100 percent. I've been pounding the table about the point guard situation for quite some time this season. The lack of one or more players who can fit the "true" PG role absolutely affects the chemistry of a team in a negative way. While I don't think this has been the only problem this team/coaching staff has had this season, I think it's by far the biggest. |
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Post by skyrider on Feb 21, 2023 12:20:08 GMT -8
We've all seen the posts on here about how the team is over-coached and controlled. I've even mentioned it on occasion. I've also seen posts adding up analytics to try to come to a conclusion about what stats equate to wins and losses. Data can help but it doesn't tell the whole story. I've been in the gym for about 10 games this season, and watched most of the others on TV, and I think the key issue is lack of chemistry. We have the talent so why isn't it working? Lack of chemistry. Because of that lack the coach has to be much more prescriptive and that has snowballed on itself through the season. This is why at appears the team is over-coached. The evidence of this, for most teams I see, is the lack of the ability to manufacture runs. You have to be able to put together runs to win games in this conference. You can't simply grind away in the half court and then play good defense. That has kept us close in MANY games where we play fine during the middle ~25 minutes of games which is where we do pretty good at utilizing our posts and hitting some shots out of core actions. It's the start and finish of games where chemistry takes over. At the beginning things are happening fast and opposing teams are focused on defending based on the scout...so it's easy to break plays. To score at volume in the hectic early part of a game you need improvisation that is enabled by team chemistry. Likewise, at the close of games teams ratchet up the defense and improvisation takes over again if you want to win. Where did the team go wrong on chemistry? When it was learned that we were only returning 4 last year I saw this board go crazy on how we needed an upperclassman PG from the portal or we're going to lose every game. We kind of got one; Bendu. Great athlete. Elite defender. Solid role player. Not a primary scorer. Also, not a PG. I was actually excited at the prospect of a lock down 3-4 position defender who would come off the bench and solve defensive issues. The team got off to a great start; we had no business winning the Hawaii game and everything was clicking through the first four games. Granted, not great competition. They looked like they were genuinely having fun playing basketball, which is absolutely what you need to start the season. Then we went to the PK and started Bendu on heavy minutes. The rest of the team was visibly deferring to her and nearly paralyzed on offense. Even TVO. Some of them were in elementary school when she started her college career, they weren't going to assert themselves on offense with her experience. Now we've put the ball in her hand in a way she has never been asked; primary ball handler and key scoring option. We stopped progressing and growing together as a team at the PK. Bendu has been misused. I see her as a 6th man to come in and put the clamps on problem matchups. Not a primary scoring option and certainly not a PG. Since then, among all the weird lineups that we've seen, in an attempt to stimulate some chemistry and manufacture runs the one thing that hasn't been tried: Don't start Yeaney. Bring her off the bench. Our primary scoring option, TVO, is already not good at making her teammates better and then we add a "PG" who isn't really a PG. This team was doomed from the beginning. The Bendu experiment hasn't worked. We should have grabbed a couple role players from the portal and then focused on developing the core players we have. Now I'm worried we're going to have to do it all again because I can't imagine we don't see some painful transfers. TVO and AJ played amazing in the early season because they are very good at improvising. Now we see AJ struggle because she isn't a system player but rather a creator. TVO is also struggling a bit as we devolve into highly prescriptive sets (injury not withstanding). These are the kind of players you need to open and close games. Then rely on actions and post work to carry you through the middle. Those two improvising with Martha at the point and Lily and Adlee hitting 3s; that's how you manufacture runs. The future is bright if we stay together but this year was tanked in a mistaken effort to try and be a good team THIS year. hoopheritic,
Unbelievable good commentary!
I hope you are wrong when you say "I can't imagine we don't see some painful transfers". My head tells me you are right, but my heart hopes you are wrong.
Hopefully the fans will turn out in record numbers for the last two home games to demonstrate their support for the players. I do not think that will make a difference in terms of player's transferring out, but there is little else fans can do.
SR, injuries, and the transfer portal, in my judgement, have caused the program's current predicament. I have not seen anything in the last couple of years to indicate that SR is up to the challenge.
The question is do the current players believe in the Coaching staff and their methods, etc? If not, then several are probably likely to bail.
Both Raegan and Timea would be valuable on any team in the country and could probably pick and choose.
Go Beavs!
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Post by lotrader on Feb 21, 2023 12:28:59 GMT -8
Really great observations by hoopheritic & grayman. Bottom line: Coaches have certain players in the wrong roles, specifically TvO & Bendu. We have a true PG on the roster, and Coach plays her 4 minutes per game? Nobody is going to gain confidence playing 4 minutes per game, and most importantly, difficult to gain team confidence when you don't have a true PG on the floor at critical moments. I know, broken record. Love the team, and will be there Thursday & Saturday to cheer them on. GO BEAVS!
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Post by skyrider on Feb 21, 2023 12:35:43 GMT -8
Really great observations by hoopheritic & grayman. Bottom line: Coaches have certain players in the wrong roles, specifically TvO & Bendu. We have a true PG on the roster, and Coach plays her 4 minutes per game? Nobody is going to gain confidence playing 4 minutes per game, and most importantly, difficult to gain team confidence when you don't have a true PG on the floor at critical moments. I know, broken record. Love the team, and will be there Thursday & Saturday to cheer them on. GO BEAVS! lotrader,
Right on brother!
Play Martha at least 1/2 of the game in all remaining games.
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Post by skyrider on Feb 21, 2023 13:23:30 GMT -8
Really great observations by hoopheritic & grayman. Bottom line: Coaches have certain players in the wrong roles, specifically TvO & Bendu. We have a true PG on the roster, and Coach plays her 4 minutes per game? Nobody is going to gain confidence playing 4 minutes per game, and most importantly, difficult to gain team confidence when you don't have a true PG on the floor at critical moments. I know, broken record. Love the team, and will be there Thursday & Saturday to cheer them on. GO BEAVS! lotrader,
Right on brother!
Play Martha at least 1/2 of the game in all remaining games.
What is the worst thing that can happen if SR plays Martha at least 1/2 of the game minutes. Well, we might lose the game.
Oh what we are already doing that on a consistent basis!
Go Beavs!
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Post by standerd on Feb 21, 2023 13:30:52 GMT -8
So obviously I have a lot of time on my hands today. We've been speculating a lot about what might be going on this season and this has generated a robust conversation with input from many people. I was curious as to how the teams have been performing from 2010-11 (Scott's first year at OSU) to games played in 2022-23 thru last weekend. What is interesting is that the team standings have varied (of course) thru the years and I wanted to see how each team has been performing thru those years and how the team performances (based on league standing) compares from this year to last year, as well with each teams average and median standing thru the years. Comparing this years current standings compared to the average and median standing for each team, I found that 4 teams are under performing (U) this year (OSU, UO, ASU, CAL), 3 are over performing (O) (AZ, COL, Utah), and 5 are performing close to their average and median performances (S) through time Stan, UCLA, USC, UW, WSU). You may not find this interesting, but I do because it better helps me understand how many if not most teams tend to fluctuate through time based on the chemistry of the team members and coaching staff, and the ability of the coaching staff to recognize the shifting demands of the game and the ever changing skill sets of the players. It does seem that the portal in at least a small way is contributing to the difficulties of coaches and players settling into a rhythm based on familiarity and skills. Thanks for checking this out. I found the exercise fascinating. Go Beavs!
Season OSU UO AZ ASU CAL STAN UCLA USC UW WSU COL UTAH
2010-11 10 6 8 5 4 1 2 3 7 9
2011-12 6 9 12 4 2 1 5 3 8 11 10 7
2012-13 11 12 10 9 2 1 3 7 5 8 4 6
2013-14 3 10 1 2 4 2 1 8 5 6 7 9 11
2014-15 1 10 11 2 4 3 6 8 5 7 9 12
2015-16 1 6 11 2 10 3 4 8 5 9 12 7
2016-17 1 6 11 5 7 2 4 12 3 8 10 9
2017-18 4 1 11 6 5 2 3 7 12 10 9 8
2018-19 3 1 8 5 7 2 4 9 11 10 12 6
2019-20 6 1 4 5 12 3 2 9 9 11 10 8
2020-21 5 4 2 9 12 1 3 8 11 7 6 10
2021-22 8 3 4 9 11 1 7 10 12 2 5 6
2022-23 11 9 4 12 10 1 5 6 8 7 3 2
average 5.4 6 8.3 5.9 6.8 1.7 4.3 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.3 7.7
median 5 6 10 5 7 1 4 8 8 8 9 7.5
2022-23 U U O U U S S S S S O O
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Post by sewingbeaver on Feb 21, 2023 13:38:31 GMT -8
Thanks Standerd- I was looking at the same phenomena the other day. Thanks for doing the math and helping us all see that things change.
GO BEAVS!
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Post by jdogge on Feb 21, 2023 15:28:58 GMT -8
So obviously I have a lot of time on my hands today. We've been speculating a lot about what might be going on this season and this has generated a robust conversation with input from many people. I was curious as to how the teams have been performing from 2010-11 (Scott's first year at OSU) to games played in 2022-23 thru last weekend. What is interesting is that the team standings have varied (of course) thru the years and I wanted to see how each team has been performing thru those years and how the team performances (based on league standing) compares from this year to last year, as well with each teams average and median standing thru the years. Comparing this years current standings compared to the average and median standing for each team, I found that 4 teams are under performing (U) this year (OSU, UO, ASU, CAL), 3 are over performing (O) (AZ, COL, Utah), and 5 are performing close to their average and median performances (S) through time Stan, UCLA, USC, UW, WSU). You may not find this interesting, but I do because it better helps me understand how many if not most teams tend to fluctuate through time based on the chemistry of the team members and coaching staff, and the ability of the coaching staff to recognize the shifting demands of the game and the ever changing skill sets of the players. It does seem that the portal in at least a small way is contributing to the difficulties of coaches and players settling into a rhythm based on familiarity and skills. Thanks for checking this out. I found the exercise fascinating. Go Beavs! Season OSU UO AZ ASU CAL STAN UCLA USC UW WSU COL UTAH 2010-11 10 6 8 5 4 1 2 3 7 9 2011-12 6 9 12 4 2 1 5 3 8 11 10 7 2012-13 11 12 10 9 2 1 3 7 5 8 4 6 2013-14 3 10 1 2 4 2 1 8 5 6 7 9 11 2014-15 1 10 11 2 4 3 6 8 5 7 9 12 2015-16 1 6 11 2 10 3 4 8 5 9 12 7 2016-17 1 6 11 5 7 2 4 12 3 8 10 9 2017-18 4 1 11 6 5 2 3 7 12 10 9 8 2018-19 3 1 8 5 7 2 4 9 11 10 12 6 2019-20 6 1 4 5 12 3 2 9 9 11 10 8 2020-21 5 4 2 9 12 1 3 8 11 7 6 10 2021-22 8 3 4 9 11 1 7 10 12 2 5 6 2022-23 11 9 4 12 10 1 5 6 8 7 3 2 average 5.4 6 8.3 5.9 6.8 1.7 4.3 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.3 7.7 median 5 6 10 5 7 1 4 8 8 8 9 7.5 2022-23 U U O U U S S S S S O O Interesting data. But it doesn't take into account external influences such as the establishment of the portal. So, your averages are misleading. Your data also does not take into account the perception regarding the value of the degree from a particular institution. For this to be really meaningful you would need to include a few additional betas such as national academic ranking, television market, alumni capacity [relating to ability to fund NIL demands], coaching changes [personally, I think losing Katie was a serious blow], RPI ... |
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Post by jimbob on Feb 21, 2023 17:32:34 GMT -8
Really great observations by hoopheritic & grayman. Bottom line: Coaches have certain players in the wrong roles, specifically TvO & Bendu. We have a true PG on the roster, and Coach plays her 4 minutes per game? Nobody is going to gain confidence playing 4 minutes per game, and most importantly, difficult to gain team confidence when you don't have a true PG on the floor at critical moments. I know, broken record. Love the team, and will be there Thursday & Saturday to cheer them on. GO BEAVS! I agree lotrader....Martha is a solid PG and she had a couple of great games earlier in the season when the coach gave her some minutes. Then she had an off game and missed a couple of defensive assignments and ever since she has been benched for the most part. I mean come on Coach---all players are going to get beat on defense at times---we see it every game---it's part of the game---don't bench your only true PG because of a few defensive blunders. The overall team benefits of having a good PG will far outweigh a few misses on defense. Give Martha a chance to run the team at PG these last 2 regular season games and let's see what happens----it can't be any worse than 8 losses in a row while she has been benched.....right?? |
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Post by skyrider on Feb 21, 2023 17:45:28 GMT -8
Really great observations by hoopheritic & grayman. Bottom line: Coaches have certain players in the wrong roles, specifically TvO & Bendu. We have a true PG on the roster, and Coach plays her 4 minutes per game? Nobody is going to gain confidence playing 4 minutes per game, and most importantly, difficult to gain team confidence when you don't have a true PG on the floor at critical moments. I know, broken record. Love the team, and will be there Thursday & Saturday to cheer them on. GO BEAVS! I agree lotrader....Martha is a solid PG and she had a couple of great games earlier in the season when the coach gave her some minutes. Then she had an off game and missed a couple of defensive assignments and ever since she has been benched for the most part. I mean come on Coach---all players are going to get beat on defense at times---we see it every game---it's part of the game---don't bench your only true PG because of a few defensive blunders. The overall team benefits of having a good PG will far outweigh a few misses on defense. Give Martha a chance to run the team at PG these last 2 regular season games and let's see what happens----it can't be any worse than 8 losses in a row while she has been benched.....right?? jimbob
If you and I both think it is the right thing to do, it must be! (grin)
Go Beavs!
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Post by standerd on Feb 21, 2023 18:10:30 GMT -8
So obviously I have a lot of time on my hands today. We've been speculating a lot about what might be going on this season and this has generated a robust conversation with input from many people. I was curious as to how the teams have been performing from 2010-11 (Scott's first year at OSU) to games played in 2022-23 thru last weekend. What is interesting is that the team standings have varied (of course) thru the years and I wanted to see how each team has been performing thru those years and how the team performances (based on league standing) compares from this year to last year, as well with each teams average and median standing thru the years. Comparing this years current standings compared to the average and median standing for each team, I found that 4 teams are under performing (U) this year (OSU, UO, ASU, CAL), 3 are over performing (O) (AZ, COL, Utah), and 5 are performing close to their average and median performances (S) through time Stan, UCLA, USC, UW, WSU). You may not find this interesting, but I do because it better helps me understand how many if not most teams tend to fluctuate through time based on the chemistry of the team members and coaching staff, and the ability of the coaching staff to recognize the shifting demands of the game and the ever changing skill sets of the players. It does seem that the portal in at least a small way is contributing to the difficulties of coaches and players settling into a rhythm based on familiarity and skills. Thanks for checking this out. I found the exercise fascinating. Go Beavs! Season OSU UO AZ ASU CAL STAN UCLA USC UW WSU COL UTAH 2010-11 10 6 8 5 4 1 2 3 7 9 2011-12 6 9 12 4 2 1 5 3 8 11 10 7 2012-13 11 12 10 9 2 1 3 7 5 8 4 6 2013-14 3 10 1 2 4 2 1 8 5 6 7 9 11 2014-15 1 10 11 2 4 3 6 8 5 7 9 12 2015-16 1 6 11 2 10 3 4 8 5 9 12 7 2016-17 1 6 11 5 7 2 4 12 3 8 10 9 2017-18 4 1 11 6 5 2 3 7 12 10 9 8 2018-19 3 1 8 5 7 2 4 9 11 10 12 6 2019-20 6 1 4 5 12 3 2 9 9 11 10 8 2020-21 5 4 2 9 12 1 3 8 11 7 6 10 2021-22 8 3 4 9 11 1 7 10 12 2 5 6 2022-23 11 9 4 12 10 1 5 6 8 7 3 2 average 5.4 6 8.3 5.9 6.8 1.7 4.3 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.3 7.7 median 5 6 10 5 7 1 4 8 8 8 9 7.5 2022-23 U U O U U S S S S S O O Interesting data. But it doesn't take into account external influences such as the establishment of the portal. So, your averages are misleading. Your data also does not take into account the perception regarding the value of the degree from a particular institution. For this to be really meaningful you would need to include a few additional betas such as national academic ranking, television market, alumni capacity [relating to ability to fund NIL demands], coaching changes [personally, I think losing Katie was a serious blow], RPI ... Yes jdogge, I've left out a number of external factors including such things as player illness and injury, loss of players to the portal (which only started in 2018), constancy in player performance, relative overall skill of each player, changes of coaching staff, etc. These factors affect all teams through time at different levels of intensity. I don't think that factors such as value of institutional degree, institutional national academic ranking, television market, or alumni capacity have that big of an overall influence on what happens on the basketball court other than some players might be attracted to certain schools by these factors. Other players are attracted to certain schools based on the "vibe" of the program or by the coach or by family history with the school, or by the opportunities of the program that fit their needs as a player. What I was trying to demonstrate, given that all programs are affected by various types of external factors, that most teams in the PAC12 have had relatively similar types of journeys over time, and that it has become, it appears, more difficult to predict how a team will perform in any given year. I find that fascinating. |
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Post by jones on Feb 21, 2023 18:31:32 GMT -8
So obviously I have a lot of time on my hands today. We've been speculating a lot about what might be going on this season and this has generated a robust conversation with input from many people. I was curious as to how the teams have been performing from 2010-11 (Scott's first year at OSU) to games played in 2022-23 thru last weekend. What is interesting is that the team standings have varied (of course) thru the years and I wanted to see how each team has been performing thru those years and how the team performances (based on league standing) compares from this year to last year, as well with each teams average and median standing thru the years. Comparing this years current standings compared to the average and median standing for each team, I found that 4 teams are under performing (U) this year (OSU, UO, ASU, CAL), 3 are over performing (O) (AZ, COL, Utah), and 5 are performing close to their average and median performances (S) through time Stan, UCLA, USC, UW, WSU). You may not find this interesting, but I do because it better helps me understand how many if not most teams tend to fluctuate through time based on the chemistry of the team members and coaching staff, and the ability of the coaching staff to recognize the shifting demands of the game and the ever changing skill sets of the players. It does seem that the portal in at least a small way is contributing to the difficulties of coaches and players settling into a rhythm based on familiarity and skills. Thanks for checking this out. I found the exercise fascinating. Go Beavs! Season OSU UO AZ ASU CAL STAN UCLA USC UW WSU COL UTAH 2010-11 10 6 8 5 4 1 2 3 7 9 2011-12 6 9 12 4 2 1 5 3 8 11 10 7 2012-13 11 12 10 9 2 1 3 7 5 8 4 6 2013-14 3 10 1 2 4 2 1 8 5 6 7 9 11 2014-15 1 10 11 2 4 3 6 8 5 7 9 12 2015-16 1 6 11 2 10 3 4 8 5 9 12 7 2016-17 1 6 11 5 7 2 4 12 3 8 10 9 2017-18 4 1 11 6 5 2 3 7 12 10 9 8 2018-19 3 1 8 5 7 2 4 9 11 10 12 6 2019-20 6 1 4 5 12 3 2 9 9 11 10 8 2020-21 5 4 2 9 12 1 3 8 11 7 6 10 2021-22 8 3 4 9 11 1 7 10 12 2 5 6 2022-23 11 9 4 12 10 1 5 6 8 7 3 2 average 5.4 6 8.3 5.9 6.8 1.7 4.3 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.3 7.7 median 5 6 10 5 7 1 4 8 8 8 9 7.5 2022-23 U U O U U S S S S S O O Interesting data. But it doesn't take into account external influences such as the establishment of the portal. So, your averages are misleading. Your data also does not take into account the perception regarding the value of the degree from a particular institution. For this to be really meaningful you would need to include a few additional betas such as national academic ranking, television market, alumni capacity [relating to ability to fund NIL demands], coaching changes [personally, I think losing Katie was a serious blow], RPI ... My wife firmly believes that Katie leaving was why both Kennedy and Taylor booked. |
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Post by skyrider on Feb 21, 2023 18:35:59 GMT -8
Interesting data. But it doesn't take into account external influences such as the establishment of the portal. So, your averages are misleading. Your data also does not take into account the perception regarding the value of the degree from a particular institution. For this to be really meaningful you would need to include a few additional betas such as national academic ranking, television market, alumni capacity [relating to ability to fund NIL demands], coaching changes [personally, I think losing Katie was a serious blow], RPI ... Yes jdogge, I've left out a number of external factors including such things as player illness and injury, loss of players to the portal (which only started in 2018), constancy in player performance, relative overall skill of each player, changes of coaching staff, etc. These factors affect all teams through time at different levels of intensity. I don't think that factors such as value of institutional degree, institutional national academic ranking, television market, or alumni capacity have that big of an overall influence on what happens on the basketball court other than some players might be attracted to certain schools by these factors. Other players are attracted to certain schools based on the "vibe" of the program or by the coach or by family history with the school, or by the opportunities of the program that fit their needs as a player. What I was trying to demonstrate, given that all programs are affected by various types of external factors, that most teams in the PAC12 have had relatively similar types of journeys over time, and that it has become, it appears, more difficult to predict how a team will perform in any given year. I find that fascinating. standerd and jdogge,
My congratulations and admiration to both of you gentlemen for the outstanding analysis and clear explanation of the research you both did.
So, am I correct (or not) in assuming that you both feel that up to this point even with the Beav's rapid decline in conference standing, the current coaching staff should be allowed to continue and given more time to "right the ship"?
If not, why not?
Again, ,many thanks!
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