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Post by bvrblvr on Jan 31, 2023 11:23:22 GMT -8
We can all post about recruiting, player development, coaching, roster configuration.
If you look at Coach Rueck's tenure
A) The Beavers have a higher overvall FG% then their opponents in 12 of 13 seasons (including this season)
B) The Beavers outrounded their opponents in 11 of 13 seasons (including this season)
C) The Beavers have committed more TO's then their opponents in all 13 seasons (ostensibly the rebounding advantage has off set the TO disadvantage)
D) The Beavers have shot over 35% from three and held their opponents to under 30% from three in seven seasons (all 20+ win seasons)
E) The 6 seasons where the Beavers have shot poorer than 35% from three and/or allowed the opponents to shoot over 30% from three - are the six worst seasons of the Rueck era; 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23.
Get back to draining 3's at a higher rate and defending the perimeter better and the Beavers will probably get back to winning the way everyone wants. Outside of that, the stats say Oregon State is essentially the same team they've been the previous 12 years.
L. Hansford is shooting .323 from 3 on the season (in limited action). I rarely see her miss in warm ups. BY and NM shoot .241 and .263 respectively from distance. Unless she literally can't grab a rebound, turns it over every times she touches the ball, or allows the player she's guarding to score every time. I can't possibly see how giving Hansford more court time (and shots) is going to make things worse.
Currently OSU is shooting .297 from three while their opponents are shooting .325. They have to start doing something to reverse those #'s.
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Post by greybeav on Feb 1, 2023 9:01:11 GMT -8
Really interesting stuff Bvrblvr, I can't pretend to know if you are or aren't' right, but I appreciate the work you put in.
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Post by rmancarl on Feb 1, 2023 11:31:04 GMT -8
We can all post about recruiting, player development, coaching, roster configuration. If you look at Coach Rueck's tenure A) The Beavers have a higher overvall FG% then their opponents in 12 of 13 seasons (including this season) B) The Beavers outrounded their opponents in 11 of 13 seasons (including this season) C) The Beavers have committed more TO's then their opponents in all 13 seasons (ostensibly the rebounding advantage has off set the TO disadvantage) D) The Beavers have shot over 35% from three and held their opponents to under 30% from three in seven seasons (all 20+ win seasons) E) The 6 seasons where the Beavers have shot poorer than 35% from three and/or allowed the opponents to shoot over 30% from three - are the six worst seasons of the Rueck era; 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23. Get back to draining 3's at a higher rate and defending the perimeter better and the Beavers will probably get back to winning the way everyone wants. Outside of that, the stats say Oregon State is essentially the same team they've been the previous 12 years. L. Hansford is shooting .323 from 3 on the season (in limited action). I rarely see her miss in warm ups. BY and NM shoot .241 and .263 respectively from distance. Unless she literally can't grab a rebound, turns it over every times she touches the ball, or allows the player she's guarding to score every time. I can't possibly see how giving Hansford more court time (and shots) is going to make things worse. Currently OSU is shooting .297 from three while their opponents are shooting .325. They have to start doing something to reverse those #'s. Thanks, this is what some of us have been trying to explain all along, so appreciate the added stats. Talia's shooting slump combined with others not being able to hit the 3 has really hurt. Timea started out something like 2-17 from 3, and then has raised her percentage up to .350 with some sharp shooting the last couple games. I don't know how good of a 3pt shooter she is overall, but I'm thinking pretty sound. With expected development, Lily, Adlee, Martha, should contribute with 3's next season, along with the return of Shalexxus and hopefully the shooting rebound of Talia. If just one or two of those step up, it changes this team dramatically. We stress out a bit about the possibility of some of the freshman transferring, and that may happen, but getting a couple shooters in the portal is a real possibility as well. I don't want any of the players to leave, but the core of Beers, Gardiner, TVO, AJ, and Jelena, are the ones you really want to see back next season. Thanks again for sharing bvrblvr! |
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Post by grayman on Feb 1, 2023 18:28:53 GMT -8
Statistically the 3-point shooting drop stands out.
I would say it's not just limited to TVO's struggles, although that does make a significant impact.
IMO the lack of a true point guard, one who is able to both hit the 3 and distribute the ball to shooters is the main problem.
In 2016-17, the Beavers shot .362 from 3. Sydney Wiese hit 101 0f 235 3s and had 154 assists. Kat Tudor and Katie McWilliams were 3-point shooters who benefitted from Wiese's ability to distribute the ball.
in 2017-18 The Beavers shot .405. It was Mikayla Pivec with 165 assists and Tudor, McWilliams, Corosdale and Aleah Goodman as the top 3-point shooters.
In 2018-19 the Beavers shot .376. It was Destiny Slocum with 150 assists and a .368 3-point percentage and Pivec with 145 assists. With Goodman, McWilliams and Corosdale hitting 3s. Tudor was injured for most of the season.
in 2019-20 the Beavers shot .369. It was Slocum with a .368 percentage and 150 assists with Pivec handing out 145 assists. Again you had Goodman, Tudor and Corosdale hitting 3s.
In 20-21 the Beavers shot .396 with Goodman taking over at PG and dealing 98 assists and leading the Beavers in 3-point shooting at .390. She also got the ball to Sasha Goforth, TVO, Ellie Mack and Corosdale.
In 21-22 the Beavers started to slide. They shot .329 from 3. TVO led the team in assists with 94 and shot 59-163 (.362) from 3. Mack, Corosdale and Kampschroeder were the next best 3-point shooters and Marotte and Codding also were solid. But the situation at point guard was in flux the entire season.
The problems at PG remain this season and the Beavers are shooting .297. TVO's percentage is down. One can point out that the team no longer has several players at other positions that can shoot the 3 and that seems to be true at least to an extent. The Beavers are led by Aaron and have Gardiner on the court, who no doubt will help. Marotte can be a 3-point threat. So can Hansford and Blacklock, but they don't get the time on the court necessary to make an impact. The lack of consistency at the point has definitely made a negative impact the last two seasons.
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Post by beaveragain on Feb 1, 2023 20:29:41 GMT -8
The fact that the other teams can sag off of Bendu means that they can then double team TVO whenever the need/want to. I think this may have gotten into her mind and effected her shooting, but of course, no way of knowing.
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Post by beaverstever on Feb 1, 2023 22:23:27 GMT -8
I think the answer is to shoot less of them with this roster. Specifically:
If you shoot 55% or better from 3, you only need to hold your opponent under 37% from 3 to break even. Only 16 teams in D1 shoot 37% or better from 3, zero of them in the Pac-12 -and we just beat the best one in conference at it in uo.
We have two players who shoot 55% or better from the field in Timea and Reagan (which includes 3 pt shooting). Jelena is at 46%. They need to take more shots.
But I'd argue it's not even the 3 Pt shooting that's the biggest problem - its the 2 point shooting outside of our bigs. Talia has had several games of taking a lot of 2 point shots at a sub 20% clip (a much worse % than her 3 pt % for the game) - that's killer. Even shooting 30% from 2's is equivalent to shooting 20% from 3. We'd be better off if she backed further up instead of moved froward when taking her shots with those results.
Bottom line is that this roster COULD overcome 3 point shooting struggles with doing more 2 point shooting, but only if certain players are taking them.
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Post by boydo on Feb 2, 2023 22:47:24 GMT -8
We can all post about recruiting, player development, coaching, roster configuration. If you look at Coach Rueck's tenure A) The Beavers have a higher overvall FG% then their opponents in 12 of 13 seasons (including this season) B) The Beavers outrounded their opponents in 11 of 13 seasons (including this season) C) The Beavers have committed more TO's then their opponents in all 13 seasons (ostensibly the rebounding advantage has off set the TO disadvantage) D) The Beavers have shot over 35% from three and held their opponents to under 30% from three in seven seasons (all 20+ win seasons) E) The 6 seasons where the Beavers have shot poorer than 35% from three and/or allowed the opponents to shoot over 30% from three - are the six worst seasons of the Rueck era; 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23. Get back to draining 3's at a higher rate and defending the perimeter better and the Beavers will probably get back to winning the way everyone wants. Outside of that, the stats say Oregon State is essentially the same team they've been the previous 12 years. L. Hansford is shooting .323 from 3 on the season (in limited action). I rarely see her miss in warm ups. BY and NM shoot .241 and .263 respectively from distance. Unless she literally can't grab a rebound, turns it over every times she touches the ball, or allows the player she's guarding to score every time. I can't possibly see how giving Hansford more court time (and shots) is going to make things worse. Currently OSU is shooting .297 from three while their opponents are shooting .325. They have to start doing something to reverse those #'s. Thanks, this is what some of us have been trying to explain all along, so appreciate the added stats. Talia's shooting slump combined with others not being able to hit the 3 has really hurt. Timea started out something like 2-17 from 3, and then has raised her percentage up to .350 with some sharp shooting the last couple games. I don't know how good of a 3pt shooter she is overall, but I'm thinking pretty sound. With expected development, Lily, Adlee, Martha, should contribute with 3's next season, along with the return of Shalexxus and hopefully the shooting rebound of Talia. If just one or two of those step up, it changes this team dramatically. We stress out a bit about the possibility of some of the freshman transferring, and that may happen, but getting a couple shooters in the portal is a real possibility as well. I don't want any of the players to leave, but the core of Beers, Gardiner, TVO, AJ, and Jelena, are the ones you really want to see back next season. Thanks again for sharing bvrblvr! I am not sure if Lily, Adlee and Martha will hang around with Mannen and Shalexxus getting all the minutes. It must be frustrating to sit on the bench and watch someone like Mannen playing 35+ minutes a game. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Feb 2, 2023 23:51:24 GMT -8
If they want minutes they need to earn them. Neither Lex nor Noelle are a lock for getting the same minutes next year. However they shouldn't look back because there are a couple freshmen guards that will be in the mix.
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Post by rmancarl on Feb 3, 2023 9:26:23 GMT -8
I think the answer is to shoot less of them with this roster. Specifically: If you shoot 55% or better from 3, you only need to hold your opponent under 37% from 3 to break even. Only 16 teams in D1 shoot 37% or better from 3, zero of them in the Pac-12 -and we just beat the best one in conference at it in uo. We have two players who shoot 55% or better from the field in Timea and Reagan (which includes 3 pt shooting). Jelena is at 46%. They need to take more shots. But I'd argue it's not even the 3 Pt shooting that's the biggest problem - its the 2 point shooting outside of our bigs. Talia has had several games of taking a lot of 2 point shots at a sub 20% clip (a much worse % than her 3 pt % for the game) - that's killer. Even shooting 30% from 2's is equivalent to shooting 20% from 3. We'd be better off if she backed further up instead of moved froward when taking her shots with those results. Bottom line is that this roster COULD overcome 3 point shooting struggles with doing more 2 point shooting, but only if certain players are taking them. I think beaverstever you make this sound a little too easy. There are only 5 players in the Pac12 who have a shooting percentage above 55%. That's only counting those who have played enough minutes to count, and although that does include the 3pt shots they've taken, it is extremely difficult to carry a shooting percentage above 55%. If the Beavs can do it, I'm all for it, but it's near impossible for a team to have enough good shooters to do that. |
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Post by scottybooks on Feb 3, 2023 10:06:59 GMT -8
Two recliner coach thoughts:
Bendu consistently penetrates to open spaces more than any other player--due to her speed, skill, and opponents' sagging off--then stops to pass to restart the play farther from the basket.
Take the open shot Bendu! I'm not afraid of her shooting percentage, which would rise if she popped when open. It would add a wrinkle to our predictable, often-stifled offense. Rebounders crashing rather than methodically working their Rueck screens.
Late game fades might be alleviated if AJ, Marta, Lily, and Adlee took 10 minutes of fatigue off the starters' bodies before the fourth quarter. Ten minutes of PT also curtails portalitis.
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Post by beaverstever on Feb 3, 2023 12:06:46 GMT -8
I think the answer is to shoot less of them with this roster. Specifically: If you shoot 55% or better from 3, you only need to hold your opponent under 37% from 3 to break even. Only 16 teams in D1 shoot 37% or better from 3, zero of them in the Pac-12 -and we just beat the best one in conference at it in uo. We have two players who shoot 55% or better from the field in Timea and Reagan (which includes 3 pt shooting). Jelena is at 46%. They need to take more shots. But I'd argue it's not even the 3 Pt shooting that's the biggest problem - its the 2 point shooting outside of our bigs. Talia has had several games of taking a lot of 2 point shots at a sub 20% clip (a much worse % than her 3 pt % for the game) - that's killer. Even shooting 30% from 2's is equivalent to shooting 20% from 3. We'd be better off if she backed further up instead of moved froward when taking her shots with those results. Bottom line is that this roster COULD overcome 3 point shooting struggles with doing more 2 point shooting, but only if certain players are taking them. I think beaverstever you make this sound a little too easy. There are only 5 players in the Pac12 who have a shooting percentage above 55%. That's only counting those who have played enough minutes to count, and although that does include the 3pt shots they've taken, it is extremely difficult to carry a shooting percentage above 55%. If the Beavs can do it, I'm all for it, but it's near impossible for a team to have enough good shooters to do that. Yes - agree it's not easy. But I do think though that at this point it's easier to try and get more shots from the players who are shooting at a higher pts/shot rate than to hope those that are shooting at a low 3 pt percentage will shoot their way into a better rate. Certainly more shots form our bigs will likely come at at an efficiency cost. Still, we have 3 guards who get a lot of minutes that are shooting 26% or worse from three; our bigs would have to drop clear down to 39% on their 2s to be worse shots - that's a long ways down from where they are at - I'd really prefer to see them take more forced shots than our guards. |
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Post by grayman on Feb 3, 2023 12:37:21 GMT -8
Two recliner coach thoughts:
Bendu consistently penetrates to open spaces more than any other player--due to her speed, skill, and opponents' sagging off--then stops to pass to restart the play farther from the basket.
Take the open shot Bendu! I'm not afraid of her shooting percentage, which would rise if she popped when open. It would add a wrinkle to our predictable, often-stifled offense. Rebounders crashing rather than methodically working their Rueck screens.
Late game fades might be alleviated if AJ, Marta, Lily, and Adlee took 10 minutes of fatigue off the starters' bodies before the fourth quarter. Ten minutes of PT also curtails portalitis.
I agree on Bendu but would add that she seems to be looking for her shot in recent games more than she had been. I hope she stays the course and even takes on more of the offensive load. Marotte was getting minutes before she got hurt. If she's out of the boot, then that's a good step in getting her back. Rueck probably views Martha as too much of a defensive liability to play a lot of minutes consistently (although playing her 10-15 minutes a game shouldn't be a problem). I'm not sure what he wants out of Hansford and Blacklock at this point. |
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