Why is Recruiting So Difficult at Oregon State?

In Basketball we have had little success since Ralph Miller era. 2021 an aberration. Not a usual. The School ,culture and the city all play a part. Oregon replaced their arena with a new one. This we laugh at but young people see it differently.
Bill has been face lifted and pained and new video boards etc. all cosmetic. I actually think we could have success with the right coach. Doubt we can have Arizona like success with what we have now. Likely not u of o type either.
The Nil will affect all this stuff more and more.
Now on football I believe the culture has been changed. I would say Smith is more like Petersen than Riley or Erickson. He is winning with 3 stars and they develope and red shirt and recruit wisely. I would love to see bigger bodied receivers. Washington has them and u of o do as well. We have yet to turn our successes into real upgrades. The 4 star QB coming would be one. I read in one commentary that he could get poached by bigger school with success he is having. I hope not. The community will not change so we must recruit to that. Football a C + and Basketball Men’s a C- or D +

I’d push back some on the 300 miles or less stat that Ward brought up as being a huge factor. Not saying I don’t believe the statistic or that geography isn’t an issue for Oregon, but stats like those are skewed a bit by both lower level schools in division 1, especially those in states east of Mississippi where population and school densities are high. For example, I’d guess that stat my hold for schools in the MAC, but even those schools recruit Florida fairly hard. But Illinois in the Big 10 has 58 players on its football roster that are from outside a 300 mile radius with the majority of those being from Florida. Now some of that is because Lovie Smith recruited Illinois high schools so poorly as well as the surrounding states. Bielema is putting an emphasis on recruiting IL and adjacent states more, so the percentage will go up, but currently in Illinois’ 2023 class 9 of 18 high school recruits are from outside 300 miles. I don’t have time to check other schools, in Big 10, but I’m gonna guess none of those schools has more than 75% from within 300 and most likely near 50%.

OSU of course has the issue of states nearest to them except for WA and CA being less populous, but CA being relatively close is an advantage. I’d guess 90% of kids from CA don’t stay in state or less 300 miles.

Winning is a big issue. All things being equal, a huge percentage of kids are going to go to a winner — especially 4 and 5 stars. And then there is the recruiting chops of the coaching staff. Good recruiters get good players. I don’t know about Coach Smith and his staff, but it doesn’t seem like WT is that great of a recruiter — at least not good enough to bring in 4 star recruits when team is down. The two new assistants seem like they might be above average, but too soon to tell.

The final thing is what I believe someone already mentioned, there are a limited and relatively small number of 4 and 5 star recruits. The large majority of those are going to go to winning programs with the rest ending up in programs with good recruiters.

All that doesn’t mean all is lost for OSU football and basketball. There are a large number of 3 star recruits, and likely not much difference talent wise between high and mid 3 star players and the mid and lower 4 stars. Coaches just need to be strong evaluators and find players they feel fit their systems and cultures and have the talent and physical attributes to project as good players at the college level with development. Of course, the margin for error is slimmer for programs like OSU. But the 2023 basketball class is a good example of the types of players staff has to identify and sign. Neither of those players are highly rated — in fact neither are currently rated I don’t believe. Doesn’t mean they’re not good players. They both have skills and physical attributes that are “projectable” and can be developed. Pope was a high 3 star who looks to be a steal. Rataj wasn’t ranked, but looks like he could develop into a solid to very good player in time. Bilodeau was a mid to high 3-star who seems like he can develop into a solid player or more. Taylor was about the same and is developing into a very good player.

As Ward points out, the transfer portal can be an issue in losing players if not winning. But it can also be a big positive if you’re at least competitive and can sell potential transfers in on your vision. If the coaching staffs can do that then they can bring in guys that they couldn’t have gotten straight out of HS. I’ll go back to Illinois for an example since I know them so well. Their QB Tommy DeVito was a 4 star recruit coming out of HS. He had some issues at Syracuse and didn’t live up to expectations — though terrible line play had a lot to do with that. Bielema was able to sell DeVito on his vision for the team even though he was still without an OC (from what I heard he basically told him you won’t be sacked 44 times like you were your sophomore season). DeVito has been pretty damn good and a big reason Illinois has turned things around and have the arrow pointing up.

There sre 450 players on NBA rosters at any given time, and who knows how may picking up paychecks in other leagues. There are 144 player spots in the WNBA and women's pro sports is nowhere near as developed as men's.

I suspect nearly EVERY 4 and 5 star high school male recruit ecpects to be in the NBA making millions within 2 years, those that don't still want to go to a big name school and have a shot.

Do you really think on the whole female basketball recruits have the exact same motivations 16/17/18 year old boys have?

Recruiting for women's sports is a different animal than men's in some regards.

I think most basketball players understand that its a lot more about their God given gifts than it is about their actual skill level. In the NBA if you can't jump a certain vertical for your Height, You're disregarded, If you can't move a certain speed for your size, You're disregarded. 

If you're a 6'5 PF that averages 30 a game in HS, Whats really the best case for you? Maybe a mid major D1? You can literally be the most skilled PF in the country, but God made you 6'5 and thats gonna be your limitation that you can't do a dang thing about. 

I've seen some highly effective Mid Major players who were way more skilled than P5 guys.....but at the end of the day they didn't have the physical gifts required to take the jump. 

Anyone remember Blake Ahearn? probably not....but google him and his Career accolades.......Probably the smartest, most skill heavy player i've ever watched.....but God said, You ain't gonna be fast brother. Now hes a coach for the Memphis Grizzlies. He got a few 10 day contracts in the NBA as a player.....but it just wasn't gonna happen. 

My comparison to what Rueck did is meant to be taken at a 10,000ft level. Yes, there are obviously differences in the men's and women's game and the pro possibilities and motivations of the student athletes.

But at a very high level, the bottom line in college athletics is you're either a Have, or a Have Not. The key to consistent top recruiting is to be a Have. OSU Baseball made that jump. Women's basketball made that jump. As much as we hate it, the uo football program made that jump. Is it really out of the question that OSU men's basketball can make that jump?

I consider what Rueck has done to be a downright miracle. Our women's program had NOTHING going for it. No history of success. No tradition. And now we are routinely recruiting the top players in the nation, landing highly ranked recruiting classes, and regularly competing for conference titles and making the postseason. I think analyzing how he did that can he very constructive in replicating it elsewhere.

Rueck's first season wasn't pretty. But he cobbled together the best pieces he could find, coached the hell out of them to win a decent number of games within a couple years, and established that tradition of success.

Incidentally, I see the same thing happening with our football program under Smith. Football's a much bigger and slower ship to turn around than a BB program, but I see that same path being taken. We're in the top third of the conference, and we got here with 3 star recruits. And now we're seeing a few bigger successes on the recruiting trail. That's EXACTLY the pattern we need to see. If Smitty sticks around a while and maintains a steady staff, I'm fairly confident we'll be pinching ourselves in 5 years over the heights that program will reach. And that includes what we might see on the recruiting front.

This can be done in any program at OSU, regardless of our small town feel or remote location. I guess my point here is that I'm firmly in the camp that believes consistent winning comes first, and recruiting follows. If we want to recruit well, we need to win first. I think this is very consistent with the point that the best BB players want to go where their pro chances are best. Those guys aren't going to take a flyer on a team that's not winning.

We need to be a Have. We need a coach who's putting us on that trajectory. Is Tinkle that coach? I honestly don't know. My gut says no, though I like the guy and acknowledge he's had the most success since Miller. Pat Casey took a decade to find his footing, so it's not necessarily something that might happen immediately upon a hire. You need some luck, too. Who would have thought an unknown post player from Canada named Ruth Hamblin would be such a dominant force and lead us to such insane heights? Call me crazy, but I see a future star in Jordan Pope, not just in his play, but with the way he carries himself. If Tinkle can build a solid team around that guy for a few years, I could see us finally getting on that coveted trajectory to being a Have. But man, is it tough to do. Takes a really special coach. We've managed to find a few. But not in men's BB yet. Hope it happens (or manifests itself in our current coach) soon.

I think the lack of sustained success plays a role along w weather, small town, etc can make recruiting difficult.

Recently, I finished the Ralph Miller autobiography "Spanning the Game, and Ralph made note how difficult recruiting Blue Chippers was in Corvallis. He pointed out how he would get athletes that were disappointed w Corvallis weathher when compared w other schools.