MLB Draft Combine

Is Frisch able to throw already?

Gotta remember that not everyone going to the combine is looking to get drafted this year. It’s also a way to get exposure for the future.

Q and A with Turley.

Q - Gavin, what is the one thing you are looking most forward to in professional baseball?
A - I'm really looking forward to having 1,000 competitive at bats in a year. I think of how much I can develop and improve my hitting. I think I'll be dangerous! (laughs)

Maybe, but there are many factors in play with Turley's decision. There are known knowns, unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns, to quote a former USSOD.

Fundamentally, it probably comes down to money. What is Turley's red line? A $Mil, $750k, more? less? It is an unknown for us, therefore we may be missing the biggest piece of the puzzle.

CONSIDERATIONS: WHY TURLEY WILL SIGN AND PLAY PROFESSIONALLY
1. Turley's Father Jason, was drafted in the 21st round in 1993 and played 2 years of pro ball in the Houston Astros system. He understands pro ball and supports Gavin in his quest to play professionally.
2. At the urging of MLB scouts in 2020, Jason Turley moved his family to the Phoenix area to give Gavin competitive baseball and far more exposure to scouts and MLB execs. Midway, Utah is small (pop. 5,200),and HS baseball at Wasatch HS was almost an afterthought with snow on the ground in May. Gavin did not play baseball at Wasatch HS, he played "up" with his brother Noah on the 18u BPA travel team.
3. The Turley family did not move to Arizona to aid Gavin in landing a college scholarship offer. He already had that with Oregon State after commiting shortly after the 2018 CWS. The Turley's moved to increase his opportunity for a professional career after being couneled by Pro Scouts.
4. If Gavin is seeking first round $$$ and isn't offered that, will he play college ball and shoot for a first round slot in the 2025 draft?
5. We have one known - Gavin wants to play pro ball and he has said that.

CONSIDERATIONS: WHY GAVIN WILL PLAY COLLEGE BASEBALL
1. One of the knowns is this kid's skill levels. Cake is spot on, a 4 tool player with elite metrics that translate to MLB easily. His fast hands, fast bat, and exit velo (107mph) translate to raw power - maybe the best in this year's class. He hit 15 home runs this spring, half of them were tape-measure shots. He's fast, his linear speed (6.29 in the 60) translates to beating out routine ground balls and always taking the extra base opportunity. His speed plays up in CF as well. He flags everything in the OF and stretches his defense from gap to gap. His arm and ability to throw from the OF is a cannon shot (OF velo is 94 mph). So, run, field, throw and hit with power - all 4 tools are there with a + grade.
2. So, what's missing? The MLB scouts have some level of concern about the hit tool. Can he hit for average? MLB scouts have noted it has been a weak 2 years for HS pitching in Arizona with only a handful of pitchers on the draft or D1 college level. They don't think Gavin saw a lot of good pitching at Hamilton HS. His two year average for the Huskies was .331 in 163 AB's. He hit 14 doubles and 19 HR's and was 25/26 in SBA. He was productive.
3. Gavin's 2021 slash line was .355/.551/.645 with 1196 OPS. His 2022 slash line was .317/.489/.841 with 1331 OPS.
The slash lines send a message - The BA lags behind the OBP and SLG numbers.
4. MLB scouts are concerned with the strike out issue. Gavin has a high K:AB metric. In 2021 he struck out in 26% of his at bats, it increased to 35% in 2022. In his two-year Hamilton career, he struck out 51 times in 163 at bats. There can many reasons for a high K rate. Vision, timing, pitch recognition, mechanical flaw, lack of plate discipline, overwinging, etc. No matter, excessive strike outs are a problem.
5. Scouting reports are expressing some concern over Gavin's swing mechanics. He sets up with a wide base, is a toe-tapper and has a high and pronounced leg kick (an odd combination), and they cite the number of moving parts in the swing. Every moving part presents an opportunity for breaking the chain - moving parts must be sequenced properly and if one is out of sync, timing issues appear. Fewer things go wrong in a simple swing.
6. Concern over contact %, or BIP and more frequent "barrels" are concerns and those concerns ask the questions; Does a MLB team ignore the 40 or45 grade on the hit tool and invest some big $ to acquire those "off the charts" skills? How much $ will you risk drafting a player that may languish in the Arizona Instructional League and Class A for maybe 3 or 4 years learning a new swing? Every front office ops guy, national cross-checkers, area scouts and hitting instructors will be looking at lots of film on Gavin. Their prognosis will influence the draft decision and whether we see him suit up at OSU.

A FINAL NOTE: HIS MAKEUP
Gavin Turley is an impressive teenager. He is a serious and dedicated student. Teachers say he has a high mechanical aptitude with an Engineering mind. His coaches say he is a great teammate on and off the field. Good natured and loves playing the game. He is a pianist that is self taught - learned to play by ear. He is only a few hours away from being a licensed single-engine pilot. He has over 30 hours of flying time in Piper and Cessna aircraft. OSU's high character, family baseball culture is a perfect fit for Gavin. Good family, good parenting and 3 siblings including older bro Noah, who played at Utah, then Yavapai CC where he and T.J. Wheeler combined to hit 45 homers in 2021, and then to Arizona in 2022. As we remember, Noah hit one all the way to New Mexico against the Beavs in Tucson last month.

For now, that's what I see.