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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 21, 2022 17:31:17 GMT -8
First off, there is zero chance that Oregon State stays #2 in RPI with four straight losses.
Here's the NCAA RPI after May 20's games. We lost our fourth game in a row on May 20. So this includes that loss. www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1/rpiGuess what? We're #2. so an issue (kinda?) with RPI, specially late season, is that 50% of it is opponents Division 1 winning percentage. We have only lost series to Furd, UCLA and Zona. All of those teams have like 60% plus winning percentage. Not only that if they win against us their RPI goes ip which pushes our RPI up. We didn’t drop any series to middle of the road or bad team like UCLA got swept by UW or Zona losing to USC, WSU, Utah and Oregon Furd lost to Oregon, UW and Zona. Our RPI is high because we didn’t lose a series to any teams that we were definitely supposed to beat (obviously this is retrospective, Stanford looked horrible at the time but now they are conference champs). Pretty sure our losses are to #1, #3, and #4 in conference. If you want a high RPI it’s more important to beat bad teams than if you are losing to good teams. This has to do with the 75% of RPI that is based on your opponents and your opponents opponents. |
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Post by rgeorge on May 21, 2022 17:34:17 GMT -8
Winning the Pac is a nice pat on the back, but it’s not what makes a team great! Let’s go Beavs! Omaha or bust! Funny that it's no big deal since we didn't win it! A 3 game lead with 5 to play and going 1-4 sort of sux. OSU should have won the Pac12 regular title. It's a big deal. The Pac12 tourney isn't unless you're not already in the NCAA tourney. OSU is and will host. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 21, 2022 17:37:37 GMT -8
Winning the Pac is a nice pat on the back, but it’s not what makes a team great! Let’s go Beavs! Omaha or bust! Funny that it's no big deal since we didn't win it! A 3 game lead with 5 to play and going 1-4 sort of sux. OSU should have won the Pac12 regular title. It's a big deal. The Pac12 tourney isn't unless you're not already in the NCAA tourney. OSU is and will host. It sucks giving up the PAC 12 title, but we need to be focused on keeping the top 8 seed at this point. |
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Post by Ruh Roh Beav on May 21, 2022 17:39:33 GMT -8
Winning the Pac is a nice pat on the back, but it’s not what makes a team great! Let’s go Beavs! Omaha or bust! Funny that it's no big deal since we didn't win it! A 3 game lead with 5 to play and going 1-4 sort of sux. OSU should have won the Pac12 regular title. It's a big deal. The Pac12 tourney isn't unless you're not already in the NCAA tourney. OSU is and will host. Yeah I gotta agree....we should have been hoisting the 2022 Pac 12 champions banner at Goss. But that’s the way the cookie crumbled. Let’s hope that we can win our regional .....after that we will have to play better than we have against upper tier teams to make it to Omaha |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 21, 2022 21:27:17 GMT -8
First off, there is zero chance that Oregon State stays #2 in RPI with four straight losses.
Here's the NCAA RPI after May 20's games. We lost our fourth game in a row on May 20. So this includes that loss. www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1/rpiGuess what? We're #2.  I meant four additional losses in response to the post before............... There was only one loss. I am waiting to see analysis on what playing Washington (RPI 86) does to Oregon State's RPI. Arizona State's 97 RPI is fortunately on the other side of the bracket. They should expand the Tournament to add 9-8 and 10-7 play-in games. It would have given USC something play for and help out the #1 and #2 teams in a game with the 9-8 and 10-7 winners. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 21, 2022 21:46:52 GMT -8
First off, there is zero chance that Oregon State stays #2 in RPI with four straight losses.
Here's the NCAA RPI after May 20's games. We lost our fourth game in a row on May 20. So this includes that loss. www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1/rpiGuess what? We're #2. so an issue (kinda?) with RPI, specially late season, is that 50% of it is opponents Division 1 winning percentage. We have only lost series to Furd, UCLA and Zona. All of those teams have like 60% plus winning percentage. Not only that if they win against us their RPI goes ip which pushes our RPI up. We didn’t drop any series to middle of the road or bad team like UCLA got swept by UW or Zona losing to USC, WSU, Utah and Oregon Furd lost to Oregon, UW and Zona. Our RPI is high because we didn’t lose a series to any teams that we were definitely supposed to beat (obviously this is retrospective, Stanford looked horrible at the time but now they are conference champs). Pretty sure our losses are to #1, #3, and #4 in conference. If you want a high RPI it’s more important to beat bad teams than if you are losing to good teams. This has to do with the 75% of RPI that is based on your opponents and your opponents opponents. Oregon State's RPI is high, because the Beavers went 21-3 against the ninth most-difficult non-conference slate. The Beavers have the nation's best non-conference RPI. Oregon State finished 2.5 games up on Stanford in total record. Oregon State's losses are to #1, #3 and #5 in conference. Games against other teams are factored out of RPI. Opponents' RPI may go up, if they win, but it does not push up Oregon State's RPI. That is not how RPI works. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 22, 2022 6:32:17 GMT -8
so an issue (kinda?) with RPI, specially late season, is that 50% of it is opponents Division 1 winning percentage. We have only lost series to Furd, UCLA and Zona. All of those teams have like 60% plus winning percentage. Not only that if they win against us their RPI goes ip which pushes our RPI up. We didn’t drop any series to middle of the road or bad team like UCLA got swept by UW or Zona losing to USC, WSU, Utah and Oregon Furd lost to Oregon, UW and Zona. Our RPI is high because we didn’t lose a series to any teams that we were definitely supposed to beat (obviously this is retrospective, Stanford looked horrible at the time but now they are conference champs). Pretty sure our losses are to #1, #3, and #4 in conference. If you want a high RPI it’s more important to beat bad teams than if you are losing to good teams. This has to do with the 75% of RPI that is based on your opponents and your opponents opponents. Oregon State's RPI is high, because the Beavers went 21-3 against the ninth most-difficult non-conference slate. The Beavers have the nation's best non-conference RPI. Oregon State finished 2.5 games up on Stanford in total record. Oregon State's losses are to #1, #3 and #5 in conference. Games against other teams are factored out of RPI. Opponents' RPI may go up, if they win, but it does not push up Oregon State's RPI. That is not how RPI works. You have a good source on the calcs? I was going off these articles www.abca.org/magazine/2013-1-Winter/Ground_Rules_Understanding_the_new_RPI.aspxen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_percentage_indexrealtimerpi.com/faq.htmlI didn’t see anything about factoring your own games out. Also it doesn’t matter if it’s non-conf or not anywhere in the calcs, only division 1 matters. From what I can tell it highly regards SoS. Even if you lose the majority of your games you can still have a great RPI since your own wins are only a quarter of the story. The only individual game factor is location weight which means away wins are more important. Please point out the mistake but it seems like if you only won away games and had the highest SOS in the country you would still probably have a very high RPI. The more I think about it RPI is actually really easy to manipulate. You don’t necessarily have to schedule hard teams at all. If you had high control of your schedule just have all your hardest opponents away and then home games against mid tier opponents in conferences with high winning percentages. That’s pretty much what Gonzaga, Notre Dame and Georgia Southern have going on. CT has gamed it in an even more interesting way. They have scheduled 23 home games, 31 away games and 2 neutral site games. That sounds brutal but their SoS is an astounding 189. They essentially are banking on being able to beat up low tier teams in their house. This nullifys SoS in many ways as away game wins/losses are heavily weighted. So they can play a crap schedule and still have an RPI of 50. That combined with a 43 win season they look like a pretty good regional host. They have only played 12 teams over 500. Their series with teams over 500 are Creightin (2-1), Xavier (2-1) and Georgetown (0-3). Notable for our schedule they lost to the dirt baggers 1-7 and beat USC 7-1. Gaming the RPI is weird though. Long term it makes some sense as you can show recruits that you can get to the post season regularly but short term your probably setting yourself to be very overmatched in your regional. Imagine Connecticut trying to deal with Arizona or Oregon in their regional. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 22, 2022 7:48:57 GMT -8
Oregon State's RPI is high, because the Beavers went 21-3 against the ninth most-difficult non-conference slate. The Beavers have the nation's best non-conference RPI. Oregon State finished 2.5 games up on Stanford in total record. Oregon State's losses are to #1, #3 and #5 in conference. Games against other teams are factored out of RPI. Opponents' RPI may go up, if they win, but it does not push up Oregon State's RPI. That is not how RPI works. You have a good source on the calcs? I was going off these articles www.abca.org/magazine/2013-1-Winter/Ground_Rules_Understanding_the_new_RPI.aspxen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_percentage_indexrealtimerpi.com/faq.htmlI didn’t see anything about factoring your own games out. Also it doesn’t matter if it’s non-conf or not anywhere in the calcs, only division 1 matters. From what I can tell it highly regards SoS. Even if you lose the majority of your games you can still have a great RPI since your own wins are only a quarter of the story. The only individual game factor is location weight which means away wins are more important. Please point out the mistake but it seems like if you only won away games and had the highest SOS in the country you would still probably have a very high RPI. The more I think about it RPI is actually really easy to manipulate. You don’t necessarily have to schedule hard teams at all. If you had high control of your schedule just have all your hardest opponents away and then home games against mid tier opponents in conferences with high winning percentages. That’s pretty much what Gonzaga, Notre Dame and Georgia Southern have going on. From your wiki article, "The OWP [Opponents' Winning Percentage] is calculated by taking the average of the WP's [Winning Percentages] for each of the team's opponents with the requirement that all games against the team in question are removed from the equation." Factoring out your record against opponents is one of the primary issues that real data people do not like RPI. For example, the Beavers beat the Ducks five times. For purposes of the calculations, Oregon State's wins are against a 35-16 (.686 WP) Oregon. Saint John's, though, lost four times to Oregon. Saint John's losses are to 31-21 (.596 WP) Oregon. It's the same Ducks, but they are treated like two different teams in the OWP calculation. This is amplified for the Beavers and Red Storm, because both teams played the Ducks multiple times. This difference in calculation for Oregon alone is worth five spots in RPI to Saint John's. Yes, RPI is easy to manipulate. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 22, 2022 8:01:26 GMT -8
You have a good source on the calcs? I was going off these articles www.abca.org/magazine/2013-1-Winter/Ground_Rules_Understanding_the_new_RPI.aspxen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_percentage_indexrealtimerpi.com/faq.htmlI didn’t see anything about factoring your own games out. Also it doesn’t matter if it’s non-conf or not anywhere in the calcs, only division 1 matters. From what I can tell it highly regards SoS. Even if you lose the majority of your games you can still have a great RPI since your own wins are only a quarter of the story. The only individual game factor is location weight which means away wins are more important. Please point out the mistake but it seems like if you only won away games and had the highest SOS in the country you would still probably have a very high RPI. The more I think about it RPI is actually really easy to manipulate. You don’t necessarily have to schedule hard teams at all. If you had high control of your schedule just have all your hardest opponents away and then home games against mid tier opponents in conferences with high winning percentages. That’s pretty much what Gonzaga, Notre Dame and Georgia Southern have going on. From your wiki article, "The OWP [Opponents' Winning Percentage] is calculated by taking the average of the WP's [Winning Percentages] for each of the team's opponents with the requirement that all games against the team in question are removed from the equation." Factoring out your record against opponents is one of the primary issues that real data people do not like RPI. For example, the Beavers beat the Ducks five times. For purposes of the calculations, Oregon State's wins are against a 35-16 (.686 WP) Oregon. Saint John's, though, lost four times to Oregon. Saint John's losses are to 31-21 (.596 WP) Oregon. It's the same Ducks, but they are treated like two different teams in the OWP calculation. This is amplified for the Beavers and Red Storm, because both teams played the Ducks multiple times. This difference in calculation for Oregon alone is worth five spots in RPI to Saint John's. Yes, RPI is easy to manipulate. Thanks! I must have read that freaking thing 3 times and completely missed it. OWP is one of those things that sounds logical but makes no sense in the full data set. The point of a ranking system is to figure out who is the best at winning. SoS is already heavily favored so adding in the OWP stuff just makes your own record matter even less. Sure there’s some mathematical weirdness if you include your own results but at the end of the day you do still have to actually win. It would also put more stratification into RPI, most teams are .4-.6 with tiny meaningless margins with no head to head. So yeah literally what you just said but dumber. Thanks Wilky |
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