|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 19, 2022 22:58:51 GMT -8
1. Stanford 19-9
2. Oregon State 19-9
3. UCLA 18-10
4. Oregon 16-12
5. Arizona 16-12
6. Washington 14-16
7. Arizona State 13-15
8. California 12-16
9. Utah 10-18
Stanford controls its own destiny. The Cardinal win the Pac-12 Regular Season Championship by winning two or going 1-1 and having the Beavers go 1-1 or worse.
Oregon State needs to finish with a better record than Stanford.
UCLA can win the Pac-12 Regular Season Championship by winning two and Stanford losing two.
Stanford or Oregon State finish second, unless UCLA wins two and Stanford goes 1-1 or better. Stanford can finish no worse than second. No team can catch Stanford, Oregon State and UCLA for first, second or third.
Oregon holds the tiebreaker over Arizona. The Wildcats must win two the final two, in order to pass the Ducks into fourth-place. Arizona and Oregon will finish fourth and fifth, the series between them merely decides the order.
The final spot in the Pac-12 Tournament field is between California and Utah. Utah takes the eighth spot from California with two wins and would be the eight-seed. The Bears clinch the final spot in the field with one more win and can finish as high as sixth.
Washington is currently in sixth but loses the tiebreaker to both Arizona State and California. The Huskies take the sixth spot with two Devils losses and at least one Bear loss.
Arizona State has the tiebreaker over California and takes the sixth spot with one win.
California wins the sixth spot with two wins and two Arizona State losses.
|
|
|
|
Post by jayvinson on May 20, 2022 5:46:01 GMT -8
I knew someone was going to say it! Stanford DOES NOT win the Pac12 championship outright if they and OSU tie. They would share a CO-championship. In the event of a tie, Stanford gets the #1 tournament seed. That is all! OSU would be champions every bit as much as Stanford.
|
|
|
|
Post by nuclearbeaver on May 20, 2022 5:50:34 GMT -8
I knew someone was going to say it! Stanford DOES NOT win the Pac12 championship outright if they and OSU tie. They would share a CO-championship. In the event of a tie, Stanford gets the #1 tournament seed. That is all! OSU would be champions every bit as much as Stanford. isn’t there a song about holding hands with the enemy? |
|
|
|
Post by flyfishinbeav on May 20, 2022 6:33:26 GMT -8
We needed to win last night. I like Furds chances of sweeping a pretty bad USC team.
|
|
|
|
Post by tamatrix on May 20, 2022 6:50:57 GMT -8
I'd say we are likely to lose the Super Regional. From a Stanford point of view, they won the series vs us and are likely to win the P12 regular season title (they won't lose to USC) As long we don't lose 4 more in a row from here, we will still get a Top 8 seed and Stanford likely will as well. Finishing not great, isn't good, but it's against tourney opponents and we will be fine despite it feeling s%#tty right now |
|
|
|
Post by Ruh Roh Beav on May 20, 2022 10:21:20 GMT -8
I'd say we are likely to lose the Super Regional. From a Stanford point of view, they won the series vs us and are likely to win the P12 regular season title (they won't lose to USC) As long we don't lose 4 more in a row from here, we will still get a Top 8 seed and Stanford likely will as well. Finishing not great, isn't good, but it's against tourney opponents and we will be fine despite it feeling s%#tty right now I guess I would feel a whole lot better if we can win this series but we haven’t shown that ability to do so against ranked Pac-12 teams. We likely finish third place......don’t want to dash our lofty #2 rankings but from my standpoint we haven’t shown up to be ranked that high. I think we are a top 16 team possibly a top 10 team but not by much. |
|
|
|
Post by tamatrix on May 20, 2022 10:40:22 GMT -8
As long we don't lose 4 more in a row from here, we will still get a Top 8 seed and Stanford likely will as well. Finishing not great, isn't good, but it's against tourney opponents and we will be fine despite it feeling s%#tty right now I guess I would feel a whole lot better if we can win this series but we haven’t shown that ability to do so against ranked Pac-12 teams. We likely finish third place......don’t want to dash our lofty #2 rankings but from my standpoint we haven’t shown up to be ranked that high. I think we are a top 16 team possibly a top 10 team but not by much. I hear you, but the committee LOVES RPI and even with 4 straight losses, I think we'd still stay #2 in RPI...now, that would mean 7 straight losses, so that's no bueno of course and could hurt us, but that's my point that as long as we get a 1 or 2, we stay at #2 in RPI and just have some losses to other tourney teams (just like EVERY other team 3-8) and will be fine. But we do agree on, let's just win and not worry about it! |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 20, 2022 12:13:14 GMT -8
I guess I would feel a whole lot better if we can win this series but we haven’t shown that ability to do so against ranked Pac-12 teams. We likely finish third place......don’t want to dash our lofty #2 rankings but from my standpoint we haven’t shown up to be ranked that high. I think we are a top 16 team possibly a top 10 team but not by much. I hear you, but the committee LOVES RPI and even with 4 straight losses, I think we'd still stay #2 in RPI...now, that would mean 7 straight losses, so that's no bueno of course and could hurt us, but that's my point that as long as we get a 1 or 2, we stay at #2 in RPI and just have some losses to other tourney teams (just like EVERY other team 3-8) and will be fine. But we do agree on, let's just win and not worry about it! First off, there is zero chance that Oregon State stays #2 in RPI with four straight losses. Even if Oregon State lost to UCLA four times, the Beavers would fall to at least three and probably at least four. And that is before the RPI pooling that will occur during conference tournaments for teams that play 3+ Tournament games. If Oregon State goes 0-3 against UCLA, the Beavers finish third in conference behind the Bruins and their current 55 RPI after normally borderline UCLA swept Oregon State in Corvallis. As the three-seed, Oregon State plays the six-seed. Right now, that is Washington, but the 25-28 Devils and their RPI-killing 95 RPI clinches the six-seed with one win against Wazzu today or tomorrow. Oregon State wants to avoid playing Arizona State at all costs, because it is a no-win proposition. Arizona State has a terrible RPI and would basically be playing a home game, Scottsdale Stadium a little more than four miles from Phoenix Municipal. If the Beavers lose against the six, they would probably play the seven-seed. Right now that is Arizona State. If the Devils finish seventh that means that they lost two and have an RPI of 97+. Cal is the next monster lurking down there. The Bears currently have an RPI of 83. If Cal wins two against Utah, the Bears probably slip to about 90th in RPI. Nightmare scenario is losing two, losing a basically home game to the Devils and their 95 RPI, followed by the Bears and their 90+ RPI after getting the snot kicked out of them by UCLA. You could quite easily see Oregon State sliding well out of the top eight in RPI. Honestly, I was more bullish before this weekend started that the beavers would be ok going 1-2 and maintaining their near lock on a top eight seed. With the results that have been coming in, Oregon State may need to do more. There is almost zero chance that Oregon State can finish 0-4 or 1-3 and maintain a top eight seed. The Beavers need to at least win two, hopefully the next two. That would leave Oregon State very well set up for an easy 2-2 or better finish in the Tournament and top eight seed. |
|
|
|
Post by tamatrix on May 21, 2022 7:37:08 GMT -8
I hear you, but the committee LOVES RPI and even with 4 straight losses, I think we'd still stay #2 in RPI...now, that would mean 7 straight losses, so that's no bueno of course and could hurt us, but that's my point that as long as we get a 1 or 2, we stay at #2 in RPI and just have some losses to other tourney teams (just like EVERY other team 3-8) and will be fine. But we do agree on, let's just win and not worry about it! First off, there is zero chance that Oregon State stays #2 in RPI with four straight losses. Even if Oregon State lost to UCLA four times, the Beavers would fall to at least three and probably at least four. And that is before the RPI pooling that will occur during conference tournaments for teams that play 3+ Tournament games. If Oregon State goes 0-3 against UCLA, the Beavers finish third in conference behind the Bruins and their current 55 RPI after normally borderline UCLA swept Oregon State in Corvallis. As the three-seed, Oregon State plays the six-seed. Right now, that is Washington, but the 25-28 Devils and their RPI-killing 95 RPI clinches the six-seed with one win against Wazzu today or tomorrow. Oregon State wants to avoid playing Arizona State at all costs, because it is a no-win proposition. Arizona State has a terrible RPI and would basically be playing a home game, Scottsdale Stadium a little more than four miles from Phoenix Municipal. If the Beavers lose against the six, they would probably play the seven-seed. Right now that is Arizona State. If the Devils finish seventh that means that they lost two and have an RPI of 97+. Cal is the next monster lurking down there. The Bears currently have an RPI of 83. If Cal wins two against Utah, the Bears probably slip to about 90th in RPI. Nightmare scenario is losing two, losing a basically home game to the Devils and their 95 RPI, followed by the Bears and their 90+ RPI after getting the snot kicked out of them by UCLA. You could quite easily see Oregon State sliding well out of the top eight in RPI. Honestly, I was more bullish before this weekend started that the beavers would be ok going 1-2 and maintaining their near lock on a top eight seed. With the results that have been coming in, Oregon State may need to do more. There is almost zero chance that Oregon State can finish 0-4 or 1-3 and maintain a top eight seed. The Beavers need to at least win two, hopefully the next two. That would leave Oregon State very well set up for an easy 2-2 or better finish in the Tournament and top eight seed. Beavs will end season at #2 RPI no matter what they do. Just a question of what committee does with how we are ending season |
|
|
|
Post by irimi on May 21, 2022 9:45:37 GMT -8
First off, there is zero chance that Oregon State stays #2 in RPI with four straight losses. Even if Oregon State lost to UCLA four times, the Beavers would fall to at least three and probably at least four. And that is before the RPI pooling that will occur during conference tournaments for teams that play 3+ Tournament games. If Oregon State goes 0-3 against UCLA, the Beavers finish third in conference behind the Bruins and their current 55 RPI after normally borderline UCLA swept Oregon State in Corvallis. As the three-seed, Oregon State plays the six-seed. Right now, that is Washington, but the 25-28 Devils and their RPI-killing 95 RPI clinches the six-seed with one win against Wazzu today or tomorrow. Oregon State wants to avoid playing Arizona State at all costs, because it is a no-win proposition. Arizona State has a terrible RPI and would basically be playing a home game, Scottsdale Stadium a little more than four miles from Phoenix Municipal. If the Beavers lose against the six, they would probably play the seven-seed. Right now that is Arizona State. If the Devils finish seventh that means that they lost two and have an RPI of 97+. Cal is the next monster lurking down there. The Bears currently have an RPI of 83. If Cal wins two against Utah, the Bears probably slip to about 90th in RPI. Nightmare scenario is losing two, losing a basically home game to the Devils and their 95 RPI, followed by the Bears and their 90+ RPI after getting the snot kicked out of them by UCLA. You could quite easily see Oregon State sliding well out of the top eight in RPI. Honestly, I was more bullish before this weekend started that the beavers would be ok going 1-2 and maintaining their near lock on a top eight seed. With the results that have been coming in, Oregon State may need to do more. There is almost zero chance that Oregon State can finish 0-4 or 1-3 and maintain a top eight seed. The Beavers need to at least win two, hopefully the next two. That would leave Oregon State very well set up for an easy 2-2 or better finish in the Tournament and top eight seed. Beavs will end season at #2 RPI no matter what they do. Just a question of what committee does with how we are ending season The number one rule of any sport team is not to leave it up to a committee to decide. Prove it on the field. We've thrown away that option now with 4 straight losses. So now we have to right the ship and play ball like we know how to do. Making a good showing in the Pac 12 tournament will help our case. |
|
EOBeav
Freshman
Posts: 504 
Grad Year: 1989, 2002
|
Post by EOBeav on May 21, 2022 11:08:23 GMT -8
Making a good showing in the Pac 12 tournament will help our case. The Pac-12 Tournament suddenly became more important. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 21, 2022 14:52:47 GMT -8
Final Regular Season Standings:
1. Stanford 21-9
2. Oregon State 20-10
3. UCLA 19-11
4. Oregon 18-12
5. Arizona 16-14
6. California 14-16
7. Washington 14-16
8. Arizona State 13-17
#5 Arizona v. #4 Oregon 9:00 a.m.
#8 Arizona State v. #1 Stanford 45 mins. following previous game
#7 Washington v. #2 Oregon State 4:45 p.m.
#6 California v. #3 UCLA 45 mins. following previous game
The losers' bracket on the other side plays at 9:00 a.m. The winners' bracket on the other side plays at 4:45 p.m.
Losers and winners on Oregon State's side of the bracket play 45 mins. after conclusion of the losers and winners on the other side, respectively.
There should be crossover games on Friday. There are not, which sucks.
|
|
|
|
Post by Henry Skrimshander on May 21, 2022 16:58:40 GMT -8
First off, there is zero chance that Oregon State stays #2 in RPI with four straight losses.
Here's the NCAA RPI after May 20's games. We lost our fourth game in a row on May 20. So this includes that loss. www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1/rpiGuess what? We're #2.
|
|
|
|
Post by irimi on May 21, 2022 17:19:39 GMT -8
Preseason Coaches poll vs actual final results ASU vs WSU not updated in the standings but it doesn't impact final standings UA underperformed and UW did better than expected..Otherwise pretty accurate I'd say we did at least as expected if not better based on RPI and National Rankings <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> And to think at the start of the year Stanford seemed to be out of the running with early losses. |
|
|
|
Post by irimi on May 21, 2022 17:22:01 GMT -8
Winning the Pac is a nice pat on the back, but it’s not what makes a team great!
Let’s go Beavs!
Omaha or bust!
|
|
