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Post by hottubbeaver on May 16, 2022 9:57:17 GMT -8
A look at the top four teams in conference standings, the only teams left with a mathematical shot at Championship/Co-Championship.
Swept by-
Beavers swept by: not swept
Stanford swept by: Arizona
UCLA swept by: UW
Arizona swept by: not swept
Swept-
Beavers swept: SC, UW, Oregon
Stanford swept: WSU, ASU, Cal, Utah
UCLA swept: Oregon, ASU, WSU
Arizona swept: Stanford, UW
The Beavs and Zona are only two teams to not be swept. Stanford only team to sweep more than 3 series.
I posted video highlights of the Zona vs Stanford series because at the time I thought that would prove to be a substantial factor in the conference race. Also because that series was at UofA and knew our road traveled through there as well. They're a good team, and a tough out on their home turf.
It boils down to the final week and it's a true race, a four horse race. Doesn't get more exciting than this. Beavers are at home and need to win at least two. I think the Goss Atmosphere this week is going to be off the charts electric high energy.
No looking ahead(or back) now, just one pitch and one game at a time. Go Beavs, Go Goss!!!
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Post by Ruh Roh Beav on May 16, 2022 10:08:19 GMT -8
Interesting analysis......thanks for posting this. This year has been a cooler than normal experience for the Beavs. We need to get more game time experience playing in the heat if we expect to do much at Omaha if we make it there so the Pac-12 tournament will help provide that.
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Post by hottubbeaver on May 16, 2022 10:30:15 GMT -8
Interesting analysis......thanks for posting this. This year has been a cooler than normal experience for the Beavs. We need to get more game time experience playing in the heat if we expect to do much at Omaha if we make it there so the Pac-12 tournament will help provide that. May 16 2021 temperatures around the w. valley were in mid 80's and considering what followed in June, that was mild. What a difference a year makes. Speaking of hot. Stanford and UW are the current "hot" teams based on win streaks, 8 and 7 respectively. I haven't been able to determine what the longest win streak is for a conference team since conference play began this season. Going off memory, I don't think it was more than 8 or 9, so Stanfurds' due......... But I would rather think about the Beavs taking care of business and not care what another team does or doesn't do. |
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Post by orangeblood on May 16, 2022 11:02:21 GMT -8
It is not a four team race. Arizona is eliminated. The only way they could catch us in the standings is to have UCLA sweep us, which would then make it impossible for UA to tie for first. It is a three-team race for first place.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 16, 2022 11:29:25 GMT -8
It is not a four team race. Arizona is eliminated. The only way they could catch us in the standings is to have UCLA sweep us, which would then make it impossible for UA to tie for first. It is a three-team race for first place. Arizona can finish anywhere from second to fifth but cannot finish first. The Wildcats could still pass the Beavers with a sweep of the Ducks and a UCLA sweep of Oregon State. I would add again that the Beavers lose all of the obvious tiebreakers with the other top three teams in the Pac-12. There may be a tiebreaker involving a tie or a game that is not played that Oregon State can win. |
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Post by hottubbeaver on May 16, 2022 11:33:50 GMT -8
It is not a four team race. Arizona is eliminated. The only way they could catch us in the standings is to have UCLA sweep us, which would then make it impossible for UA to tie for first. It is a three-team race for first place. You must not have lived in Oregon the past couple years. I said mathematically possible, and sticking by that, you're just overlooking the scenario. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 16, 2022 11:42:50 GMT -8
It is not a four team race. Arizona is eliminated. The only way they could catch us in the standings is to have UCLA sweep us, which would then make it impossible for UA to tie for first. It is a three-team race for first place. You must not have lived in Oregon the past couple years. I said mathematically possible, and sticking by that, you're just overlooking the scenario. Oregon State has to be swept for Arizona to catch Oregon State, and UCLA would stay ahead of Arizona, if they sweep. I tried to save you in my post. But it is mathematically impossible. What's your scenario? |
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Post by hottubbeaver on May 16, 2022 12:32:53 GMT -8
You must not have lived in Oregon the past couple years. I said mathematically possible, and sticking by that, you're just overlooking the scenario. Oregon State has to be swept for Arizona to catch Oregon State, and UCLA would stay ahead of Arizona, if they sweep. I tried to save you in my post. But it is mathematically impossible. What's your scenario? Sure, just remove one game from the equation. UCLA vs OSU series only gets two games in rather than three. Over the past couple years I've had s few trips and countless more sporting events canceled at last minute. Whether act of nature, God, or emergency order, it's not been out of realm of possibility so I included a two game series in "possible" scenarios. Here's where the problem is with that. When I calculated the winning % in that scenario, I had Stanford losing all three games, Arizona winning all three and UCLA winning 2 of 2. I must have pulled UCLA's current record instead of Arizonas' because I calculated a .660 for all three in that scenario(OSU, UCLA, UofA) for a three way tie. Not possible since best UofA can do is a .630 with a three game sweep. |
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