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Post by beaverbeliever71 on May 12, 2022 9:21:29 GMT -8
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Post by beaverboilermaker on May 12, 2022 22:54:43 GMT -8
Thinking about this like there are a couple ways to play the pitching staff with the UCLA series and Pac tourney to set up best for the real tourney. There are pros and cons to each, especially with Pfennings' recovery and keeping his starts on a consistent schedule. But full rest all the way through risks Hjerpe and Kmatz not pitching in the Pac tourney at all, and possibly having Pfennings skip the UCLA series to be the Pac tourney game 1 starter. Of course stuff happens in tournaments that can mess up a pitching plan, but just noodling some options below, the one I like least is 2 straight weeks of short rest, followed by 2 extra days rest before Regionals. It would be great to win the inaugural Pac12 tourney, but not at the expense of pitching for Regionals, so it will be interesting to see what Canham and Dorman do.
| Full Rest Option | 2 weeks Short Rest | 1 week Short Rest | | UCLA Thur | Hunter | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | UCLA Fri | Hjerpe | Kmatz | Kmatz | | UCLA Sat | Kmatz | Pfennings | Pfennings | | Pac Wed | Pfennings | Hjerpe | Hunter | | Pac Thur | Hunter | Kmatz | Hjerpe | | Pac Fri | Hjerpe | Pfennings | Kmatz | | Pac Sat | Kmatz | Hunter | Pfennings | | Pac Sun | Townsend | Townsend | Townsend | | Regional Fri | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | Regional Sat | Kmatz | Kmatz | Kmatz | | Regional Sun | Pfennings | Pfennings | Pfennings |
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Post by beavermd on May 13, 2022 5:49:53 GMT -8
Thinking about this like there are a couple ways to play the pitching staff with the UCLA series and Pac tourney to set up best for the real tourney. There are pros and cons to each, especially with Pfennings' recovery and keeping his starts on a consistent schedule. But full rest all the way through risks Hjerpe and Kmatz not pitching in the Pac tourney at all, and possibly having Pfennings skip the UCLA series to be the Pac tourney game 1 starter. Of course stuff happens in tournaments that can mess up a pitching plan, but just noodling some options below, the one I like least is 2 straight weeks of short rest, followed by 2 extra days rest before Regionals. It would be great to win the inaugural Pac12 tourney, but not at the expense of pitching for Regionals, so it will be interesting to see what Canham and Dorman do.
| Full Rest Option | 2 weeks Short Rest | 1 week Short Rest | | UCLA Thur | Hunter | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | UCLA Fri | Hjerpe | Kmatz | Kmatz | | UCLA Sat | Kmatz | Pfennings | Pfennings | | Pac Wed | Pfennings | Hjerpe | Hunter | | Pac Thur | Hunter | Kmatz | Hjerpe | | Pac Fri | Hjerpe | Pfennings | Kmatz | | Pac Sat | Kmatz | Hunter | Pfennings | | Pac Sun | Townsend | Townsend | Townsend | | Regional Fri | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | Regional Sat | Kmatz | Kmatz | Kmatz | | Regional Sun | Pfennings | Pfennings | Pfennings |
I fully expect Pfennigs to be moved up to start game 2 of the regional. |
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Post by messi on May 13, 2022 6:10:49 GMT -8
Thinking about this like there are a couple ways to play the pitching staff with the UCLA series and Pac tourney to set up best for the real tourney. There are pros and cons to each, especially with Pfennings' recovery and keeping his starts on a consistent schedule. But full rest all the way through risks Hjerpe and Kmatz not pitching in the Pac tourney at all, and possibly having Pfennings skip the UCLA series to be the Pac tourney game 1 starter. Of course stuff happens in tournaments that can mess up a pitching plan, but just noodling some options below, the one I like least is 2 straight weeks of short rest, followed by 2 extra days rest before Regionals. It would be great to win the inaugural Pac12 tourney, but not at the expense of pitching for Regionals, so it will be interesting to see what Canham and Dorman do.
| Full Rest Option | 2 weeks Short Rest | 1 week Short Rest | | UCLA Thur | Hunter | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | UCLA Fri | Hjerpe | Kmatz | Kmatz | | UCLA Sat | Kmatz | Pfennings | Pfennings | | Pac Wed | Pfennings | Hjerpe | Hunter | | Pac Thur | Hunter | Kmatz | Hjerpe | | Pac Fri | Hjerpe | Pfennings | Kmatz | | Pac Sat | Kmatz | Hunter | Pfennings | | Pac Sun | Townsend | Townsend | Townsend | | Regional Fri | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | Regional Sat | Kmatz | Kmatz | Kmatz | | Regional Sun | Pfennings | Pfennings | Pfennings |
Two item that needs to be noted, should the Beavers start the conference tournament 2-0, then they would get Friday off making Saturday the third game. Also, whoever has a loss by Saturday will need to win twice on that day to advance to the championship game on Sunday. Pretty much, if things go good for the Beavers at the conference tournament where they start 2-0, we end up with one of three scenarios - Short rest Hjerpe for UCLA, pitching him Thursday. Thus, getting normal rest for the second day at the Pac-12 Tournament, and an extended rest for regionals.
- Normal rest Hjerpe for UCLA, but short rest him for Day 2 of the Pac-12 Tournament, and and extended rest for regionals.
- Normal rest Hjerpe for UCLA, extended rest him for Day 4 (Friday would be an off day) of the Pac-12 Tournament, and short rest him for regionals
Now if the Beavers start 1-1 at the Pac-12 Tournament, and Hjerpe hasn't pitched yet, he could still go normal rest and pitch in Friday as shown under the Full Rest scenario above. But that requires the Beavers to lose, and that's never a good option.
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Post by bvrfans5 on May 13, 2022 6:18:02 GMT -8
Thinking about this like there are a couple ways to play the pitching staff with the UCLA series and Pac tourney to set up best for the real tourney. There are pros and cons to each, especially with Pfennings' recovery and keeping his starts on a consistent schedule. But full rest all the way through risks Hjerpe and Kmatz not pitching in the Pac tourney at all, and possibly having Pfennings skip the UCLA series to be the Pac tourney game 1 starter. Of course stuff happens in tournaments that can mess up a pitching plan, but just noodling some options below, the one I like least is 2 straight weeks of short rest, followed by 2 extra days rest before Regionals. It would be great to win the inaugural Pac12 tourney, but not at the expense of pitching for Regionals, so it will be interesting to see what Canham and Dorman do.
| Full Rest Option | 2 weeks Short Rest | 1 week Short Rest | | UCLA Thur | Hunter | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | UCLA Fri | Hjerpe | Kmatz | Kmatz | | UCLA Sat | Kmatz | Pfennings | Pfennings | | Pac Wed | Pfennings | Hjerpe | Hunter | | Pac Thur | Hunter | Kmatz | Hjerpe | | Pac Fri | Hjerpe | Pfennings | Kmatz | | Pac Sat | Kmatz | Hunter | Pfennings | | Pac Sun | Townsend | Townsend | Townsend | | Regional Fri | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | Regional Sat | Kmatz | Kmatz | Kmatz | | Regional Sun | Pfennings | Pfennings | Pfennings |
I fully expect Pfennigs to be moved up to start game 2 of the regional. Do we really start Hjerpe against the 4 seed in the regional? I assume he is the game 2 starter. Yes we want him in game 1 of the supers so this does mess up the rest schedule, but we have to win the regional first and I assume we want our best pitcher against the toughest team (winner of 2/3 game). |
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Post by beavs6 on May 13, 2022 6:41:58 GMT -8
I fully expect Pfennigs to be moved up to start game 2 of the regional. Do we really start Hjerpe against the 4 seed in the regional? I assume he is the game 2 starter. Yes we want him in game 1 of the supers so this does mess up the rest schedule, but we have to win the regional first and I assume we want our best pitcher against the toughest team (winner of 2/3 game). It may depend on who the 4 seed is. There are a couple teams out there with a VERY good Friday Night guy that project as a 4 seed. |
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Post by beavermd on May 13, 2022 7:33:43 GMT -8
I fully expect Pfennigs to be moved up to start game 2 of the regional. Do we really start Hjerpe against the 4 seed in the regional? I assume he is the game 2 starter. Yes we want him in game 1 of the supers so this does mess up the rest schedule, but we have to win the regional first and I assume we want our best pitcher against the toughest team (winner of 2/3 game). That’s a possibility too. Whatever we do, I think Kmatz will be the pitcher for Game 3 or the regionals. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 13, 2022 8:19:03 GMT -8
Do we really start Hjerpe against the 4 seed in the regional? I assume he is the game 2 starter. Yes we want him in game 1 of the supers so this does mess up the rest schedule, but we have to win the regional first and I assume we want our best pitcher against the toughest team (winner of 2/3 game). It may depend on who the 4 seed is. There are a couple teams out there with a VERY good Friday Night guy that project as a 4 seed. I would still throw Hjerpe the first game. Not throwing your ace has backfired on teams in the past. If you save him and lose the first game, you're in a very big hole. |
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Post by rainmanrich on May 13, 2022 9:40:16 GMT -8
It may depend on who the 4 seed is. There are a couple teams out there with a VERY good Friday Night guy that project as a 4 seed. I would still throw Hjerpe the first game. Not throwing your ace has backfired on teams in the past. If you save him and lose the first game, you're in a very big hole. I'll second that and add that to lose to a PAC 12 tournament low seed would likely have the largest impact on RPI and has the greatest impact on the NCAA tournament seeding. Plus, none of the teams in the PAC 12 tournament are what I would consider to be easy-wins, even the lowest seeded teams. Coop' in game 1 for the win! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 13, 2022 13:17:50 GMT -8
Thinking about this like there are a couple ways to play the pitching staff with the UCLA series and Pac tourney to set up best for the real tourney. There are pros and cons to each, especially with Pfennings' recovery and keeping his starts on a consistent schedule. But full rest all the way through risks Hjerpe and Kmatz not pitching in the Pac tourney at all, and possibly having Pfennings skip the UCLA series to be the Pac tourney game 1 starter. Of course stuff happens in tournaments that can mess up a pitching plan, but just noodling some options below, the one I like least is 2 straight weeks of short rest, followed by 2 extra days rest before Regionals. It would be great to win the inaugural Pac12 tourney, but not at the expense of pitching for Regionals, so it will be interesting to see what Canham and Dorman do.
| Full Rest Option | 2 weeks Short Rest | 1 week Short Rest | | UCLA Thur | Hunter | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | UCLA Fri | Hjerpe | Kmatz | Kmatz | | UCLA Sat | Kmatz | Pfennings | Pfennings | | Pac Wed | Pfennings | Hjerpe | Hunter | | Pac Thur | Hunter | Kmatz | Hjerpe | | Pac Fri | Hjerpe | Pfennings | Kmatz | | Pac Sat | Kmatz | Hunter | Pfennings | | Pac Sun | Townsend | Townsend | Townsend | | Regional Fri | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | Regional Sat | Kmatz | Kmatz | Kmatz | | Regional Sun | Pfennings | Pfennings | Pfennings |
I fully expect Pfennigs to be moved up to start game 2 of the regional. So, how do you game that to make it true? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 13, 2022 13:25:30 GMT -8
Thinking about this like there are a couple ways to play the pitching staff with the UCLA series and Pac tourney to set up best for the real tourney. There are pros and cons to each, especially with Pfennings' recovery and keeping his starts on a consistent schedule. But full rest all the way through risks Hjerpe and Kmatz not pitching in the Pac tourney at all, and possibly having Pfennings skip the UCLA series to be the Pac tourney game 1 starter. Of course stuff happens in tournaments that can mess up a pitching plan, but just noodling some options below, the one I like least is 2 straight weeks of short rest, followed by 2 extra days rest before Regionals. It would be great to win the inaugural Pac12 tourney, but not at the expense of pitching for Regionals, so it will be interesting to see what Canham and Dorman do.
| Full Rest Option | 2 weeks Short Rest | 1 week Short Rest | | UCLA Thur | Hunter | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | UCLA Fri | Hjerpe | Kmatz | Kmatz | | UCLA Sat | Kmatz | Pfennings | Pfennings | | Pac Wed | Pfennings | Hjerpe | Hunter | | Pac Thur | Hunter | Kmatz | Hjerpe | | Pac Fri | Hjerpe | Pfennings | Kmatz | | Pac Sat | Kmatz | Hunter | Pfennings | | Pac Sun | Townsend | Townsend | Townsend | | Regional Fri | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | Hjerpe | | Regional Sat | Kmatz | Kmatz | Kmatz | | Regional Sun | Pfennings | Pfennings | Pfennings |
That really does assume that Kmatz is a Friday/Saturday starter moving forward. After last weekend, is that still true? Or are you going with Hjerpe and Pfennigs on Friday/Saturday after Arizona? IMO, two weeks short rest makes zero sense. You want to plan for Hjerpe to throw on Thursday of the Pac-12 Tournament, and you might plan on him pitching on Friday, if you lose the opener. But you throw Hjerpe, if Hjerpe started on Thursday against UCLA. You probably want to game out Hunter throwing game one of the Pac-12 Tournament, unless Dorman is planning to use Hunter in long relief against UCLA. A lot depends on how these next six games go. I always figure that you error on the side of giving Pfennigs extra rest and anyone else that might need extra rest. This also would be a great time for Lattery to reappear out of the shadows. |
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Post by irimi on May 13, 2022 14:39:53 GMT -8
I think you’re all overlooking Ferrer who had starting duties for awhile and could be called on again to start a game to extend rest for the top three. Prioritize the regional and work backwards.
And why the heck do we have our final series of the year starting on a Thursday?!
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Post by beaverboilermaker on May 13, 2022 15:40:52 GMT -8
I think you’re all overlooking Ferrer who had starting duties for awhile and could be called on again to start a game to extend rest for the top three. Prioritize the regional and work backwards. And why the heck do we have our final series of the year starting on a Thursday?! I agree about Ferrer but figure he has not started since late March vs. Cal. So my options assume he is our #1 relief guy, but my name is neither Mitch nor Rich. All the final Pac series start on Thursday May 19. My guess is to accommodate the even worse tourney start date of Wednesday, which is why I started noodling pitching in the first place! Pac Baseball schedule |
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Post by chinmusic on May 13, 2022 16:08:15 GMT -8
Look at the situation conceptually. The Beavers immediate priority is winning in Tucson, then winning at home over UCLA. Protect that 1st or 2nd seed that can influence who your regional opponents will be and your super regional opposition.
Make getting to Omaha as simple as possible with an assist from seeding.
The PAC-12 tournament is an opportunity to win an automatic bid to the NCAA. That's not in our interest this year.
Leave the PAC-12 tournament with your starting rotation rested. Begin regional play with 4 front-liners fresh and ready to pound the zone.
Play them one game at a time.
NCAA tournament play is one game at a time. Go with your best available.
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Post by beavermd on May 13, 2022 16:33:24 GMT -8
I fully expect Pfennigs to be moved up to start game 2 of the regional. So, how do you game that to make it true? You just move him up in the rotation. There’s lots of scenarios, but let’s say we stick with Hjerpe/Kmatz/Pfennigs against UCLA. Pfennigs will now be lined up to start on Saturdays. For the P12 Tourney you go Hunter/Hjerpe/Kmatz/Pfennigs. Jake gets 7 days rest and can go Saturday for the regional. Now there’s other options that include just resting him altogether. We could very well see a rotation next week of Hunter/Hjerpe/Kmatz. That gives Pfennigs the week off and he can start game 1 of the P12 tourney. I almost like that even better cause now you have the option of throwing him game 1 of the regional. |
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