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Post by tamatrix on Apr 25, 2022 14:15:16 GMT -8
Since I was a bit of a debbie downer about RPI with the first Gonzaga loss, owe it to the group to admit that and bring what should generally be looked at pretty positive outlook. Helps a ton that the rest of our schedule is extremely RPI friendly (because of a 64.1% winning percentage), just need to take care of business! For those that aren't aware, Boyd's World does a "RPI Needs Report" ( boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html) speculating on what it will take to end the season in different RPI spots. Obviously a ton of math and speculation but it's generally pretty darn good. Oregon State Remaining: 7 home, 8 road, 0 neutral Current RPI: 7 ROWP: 0.641 Top 16: 0 home wins, 8 road wins 1 home wins, 7 road wins 2 home wins, 5 road wins 3 home wins, 4 road wins 4 home wins, 3 road wins 5 home wins, 2 road wins 6 home wins, 0 road wins Top 8: 2 home wins, 7 road wins 3 home wins, 6 road wins 4 home wins, 5 road wins 5 home wins, 3 road wins 6 home wins, 2 road wins 7 home wins, 1 road wins Other teams of note (summarized): Stanford (current 15) - 15 games left, need to win 13 for Top 16 and all 15 for Top 8 (and 11 to stay in top 32) UCLA (current 36) - 16 games left, need to win 15 for Top 16 and can't make Top 8 (and 13 to stay in top 32) Arizona (current 37) - 15 games left, need to win 12-13 for Top 16 and 14 for Top 8 (and 10 to stay in top 32) hole (current 13) - 17 games left, need to win 111-12 for Top 16 and 13-14 for Top 8 (and 9-10 to stay in top 32) |
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Post by jdogge on Apr 25, 2022 14:20:24 GMT -8
Since I was a bit of a debbie downer about RPI with the first Gonzaga loss, owe it to the group to admit that and bring what should generally be looked at pretty positive outlook. Helps a ton that the rest of our schedule is extremely RPI friendly (because of a 64.1% winning percentage), just need to take care of business! For those that aren't aware, Boyd's World does a "RPI Needs Report" ( boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html) speculating on what it will take to end the season in different RPI spots. Obviously a ton of math and speculation but it's generally pretty darn good. Oregon State Remaining: 7 home, 8 road, 0 neutral Current RPI: 7 ROWP: 0.641 Top 16: 0 home wins, 8 road wins 1 home wins, 7 road wins 2 home wins, 5 road wins 3 home wins, 4 road wins 4 home wins, 3 road wins 5 home wins, 2 road wins 6 home wins, 0 road wins Top 8: 2 home wins, 7 road wins 3 home wins, 6 road wins 4 home wins, 5 road wins 5 home wins, 3 road wins 6 home wins, 2 road wins 7 home wins, 1 road wins Other teams of note (summarized): Stanford (current 15) - 15 games left, need to win 13 for Top 16 and all 15 for Top 8 (and 11 to stay in top 32) UCLA (current 36) - 16 games left, need to win 15 for Top 16 and can't make Top 8 (and 13 to stay in top 32) Arizona (current 37) - 15 games left, need to win 12-13 for Top 16 and 14 for Top 8 (and 10 to stay in top 32) hole (current 13) - 17 games left, need to win 111-12 for Top 16 and 13-14 for Top 8 (and 9-10 to stay in top 32) Perhaps you might give a little more context to your data. Top 16? Top 8? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 25, 2022 14:28:31 GMT -8
Since I was a bit of a debbie downer about RPI with the first Gonzaga loss, owe it to the group to admit that and bring what should generally be looked at pretty positive outlook. Helps a ton that the rest of our schedule is extremely RPI friendly (because of a 64.1% winning percentage), just need to take care of business! For those that aren't aware, Boyd's World does a "RPI Needs Report" ( boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html) speculating on what it will take to end the season in different RPI spots. Obviously a ton of math and speculation but it's generally pretty darn good. Oregon State Remaining: 7 home, 8 road, 0 neutral Current RPI: 7 ROWP: 0.641 Top 16: 0 home wins, 8 road wins 1 home wins, 7 road wins 2 home wins, 5 road wins 3 home wins, 4 road wins 4 home wins, 3 road wins 5 home wins, 2 road wins 6 home wins, 0 road wins Top 8: 2 home wins, 7 road wins 3 home wins, 6 road wins 4 home wins, 5 road wins 5 home wins, 3 road wins 6 home wins, 2 road wins 7 home wins, 1 road wins Other teams of note (summarized): Stanford (current 15) - 15 games left, need to win 13 for Top 16 and all 15 for Top 8 (and 11 to stay in top 32) UCLA (current 36) - 16 games left, need to win 15 for Top 16 and can't make Top 8 (and 13 to stay in top 32) Arizona (current 37) - 15 games left, need to win 12-13 for Top 16 and 14 for Top 8 (and 10 to stay in top 32) hole (current 13) - 17 games left, need to win 111-12 for Top 16 and 13-14 for Top 8 (and 9-10 to stay in top 32) Perhaps you might give a little more context to your data. Top 16? Top 8? Top 16: Likely Regional Host
Top 8: Likely Super Regional Host |
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Post by grackle on Apr 25, 2022 14:32:22 GMT -8
How I read it:
To finish in the top 16 RPI, OSU would need 0 home wins, but 8 road wins in their remaining games OR 1 home win and 8 road wins, etc., etc.
To finish with a top 8 RPI, OSU would need 2 home wins AND 7 road wins, OR 3 home wins and 6 road wins, etc., etc.
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Post by Judge Smails on Apr 25, 2022 14:52:03 GMT -8
How I read it: To finish in the top 16 RPI, OSU would need 0 home wins, but 8 road wins in their remaining games OR 1 home win and 8 road wins, etc., etc. To finish with a top 8 RPI, OSU would need 2 home wins AND 7 road wins, OR 3 home wins and 6 road wins, etc., etc. The problem is that there are still unknowns with the conference tournament. You are going to have at least two additional neutral site games against undetermined opponents. |
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Post by tamatrix on Apr 25, 2022 14:53:41 GMT -8
How I read it: To finish in the top 16 RPI, OSU would need 0 home wins, but 8 road wins in their remaining games OR 1 home win and 8 road wins, etc., etc. To finish with a top 8 RPI, OSU would need 2 home wins AND 7 road wins, OR 3 home wins and 6 road wins, etc., etc. The problem is that there are still unknowns with the conference tournament. You are going to have at least two additional neutral site games against undetermined opponents. Oh forsure.....take it as an indicator and some fun, not a decoder ring |
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Post by beavs6 on Apr 25, 2022 18:24:27 GMT -8
So win the next 4 series (8 games) and 1 or 2 more and be set for a National Seed. I think OSU gets 10 of the next 15. #4, maybe #3, National Seed
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 25, 2022 18:31:57 GMT -8
9/15 seems very doable for this team. Hell that would be 6 losses in 15 games, they have only had 8 in the first 39.
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Post by jefframp on Apr 25, 2022 20:09:59 GMT -8
To distill it down further for my simpleton mind I see it this way:
9 wins (or better) we are a Top 8 seed
8 wins we are probably a Top 8 seed
7 wins we are a Top 16 seed
6 wins we are a possible Top 16 seed
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 25, 2022 20:25:20 GMT -8
9/15 seems very doable for this team. Hell that would be 6 losses in 15 games, they have only had 8 in the first 39. Hole, UCLA, and ARZ are tough series.....even Utah, and it's on the road. Should we win every series? Yes......but being that its baseball.... |
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Post by tamatrix on Apr 25, 2022 21:15:56 GMT -8
I'll take it one more jefframp...how about this for my predictions ...which gets us top 8 with a road win to spare per the current calcs...and feels very doable
non-conference CW - 1-1 (1 road win)
utah - 2-1 (2 road wins)
ucla - 2-1 (2 home wins)
hole - 2-1 (2 home wins)
zona - 1-2 (1 road win)
UP - 1-0 (1 home win)
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