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Post by chinmusic on Apr 23, 2022 7:43:34 GMT -8
Is everyone in agreement that Meggs and staff made the right move last night? I think the decision to intentionally walk Melton and Boyd was influenced by several considerations and it had nothing to do with disrespecting Forrester or preferring to pitch to him as opposed to Melton and Boyd. Seeing Travis Bazzana standing on 3B with less than 2 outs was Megg's worst nightmare and put him in the position of desperately trying to save the Dawgs from defeat. I saw the circumstances like this.
1. Washington has thorough knowledge of the Beaver hitters. They know the strengths and weaknesses of our batting order. They have stats, and spray charts. They know 1 through 5 in our order is a matter of “pick your poison”. After 36 games - .358, .349, .362, .354 and .336 told them everything they needed to know about who to pitch to. Answer = Nobody!
2. The Huskies were put in an impossible position when Bazzana’s speed and "hungry for more" base running allowed him to reach 3B on the base hit with only one out. Can you define” pressure” ?.
3. With Bazzana at 3B with less than 2 outs, there was a high degree of probability he would score (there are 9 ways to score from 3B).
4. Washington’s only defense was to cut that run off at the plate and set up the force at any base for tyhe third out. Melton and Boyd can drive the ball in the air – hoping for a sharply hit ground ball that you could look Bazzana back to 3B was risky. If they failed to get that or a strike out, the game was lost.
5. To set up the force play at home, they loaded the bases and pulled the infield in to position them for the short throw home.
6. They also had to account for the potential “squeeze”. Meggs positioned a 5th infielder by bringing an outfielder in complicate the execution of the safety squeeze. The suicide squeeze is low percentage play because pitch and location heavily determine the outcome of that tactic. Bunting a hard slider low and away with the first baseman charging is nearly impossible to execute.
7. Meggs shortened up his two outfielders to about 240 feet which is about the maximum distance an outfielder could make the catch, exchange, and an accurate throw home to get the streaking Bazzana. We have seen Boyd and Stanfotd's Bowser launch missiles from 300+ feet this year but those were rare occurrences.
8. In summary, I don’t think there was a conscious effort to pitch to the Donkey, he just happened to be the next guy up following the two walks to “load em up” for the intended force at home and hopefull DP at 1B. Washington was forced to pitch to Garret, not because that was their preference - what coach in his right mind chooses to pitch to Garrett Forrester with men on base? Meggs had no choice - he was in deep do-do.
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Post by grackle on Apr 23, 2022 8:10:05 GMT -8
Is everyone in agreement that Meggs and staff made the right move last night? I think the decision to intentionally walk Melton and Boyd was influenced by several considerations and it had nothing to do with disrespecting Forrester or preferring to pitch to him as opposed to Melton and Boyd. Seeing Travis Bazzana standing on 3B with less than 2 outs was Megg's worst nightmare and put him in the position of desperately trying to save the Dawgs from defeat. I saw the circumstances like this. 1. Washington has thorough knowledge of the Beaver hitters. They know the strengths and weaknesses of our batting order. They have stats, and spray charts. They know 1 through 5 in our order is a matter of “pick your poison”. After 36 games - .358, .349, .362, .354 and .336 told them everything they needed to know about who to pitch to. Answer = Nobody! 2. The Huskies were put in an impossible position when Bazzana’s speed and "hungry for more" base running allowed him to reach 3B on the base hit with only one out. Can you define” pressure” ?. 3. With Bazzana at 3B with less than 2 outs, there was a high degree of probability he would score (there are 9 ways to score from 3B). 4. Washington’s only defense was to cut that run off at the plate and set up the force at any base for tyhe third out. Melton and Boyd can drive the ball in the air – hoping for a sharply hit ground ball that you could look Bazzana back to 3B was risky. If they failed to get that or a strike out, the game was lost. 5. To set up the force play at home, they loaded the bases and pulled the infield in to position them for the short throw home. 6. They also had to account for the potential “squeeze”. Meggs positioned a 5th infielder by bringing an outfielder in complicate the execution of the safety squeeze. The suicide squeeze is low percentage play because pitch and location heavily determine the outcome of that tactic. Bunting a hard slider low and away with the first baseman charging is nearly impossible to execute. 7. Meggs shortened up his two outfielders to about 240 feet which is about the maximum distance an outfielder could make the catch, exchange, and an accurate throw home to get the streaking Bazzana. We have seen Boyd and Stanfotd's Bowser launch missiles from 300+ feet this year but those were rare occurrences. 8. In summary, I don’t think there was a conscious effort to pitch to the Donkey, he just happened to be the next guy up following the two walks to “load em up” for the intended force at home and hopefull DP at 1B. Washington was forced to pitch to Garret, not because that was their preference - what coach in his right mind chooses to pitch to Garrett Forrester with men on base? Meggs had no choice - he was in deep do-do. Agree....Meggs was definitely up a creek. His strategy seemed sensible to me...it was just very unlikely that the winning run wouldn't have crossed the plate no matter what he did.. |
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Post by bennyskid on Apr 23, 2022 8:11:07 GMT -8
Only nine ways to score from third? thinkbluela.com/2012/04/25-ways-to-score-from-third-base/A few of these wouldn't apply in the actual situation . . . but there were still a lot of ways Bazzana could have scored. All of which underscores that unless you have Goose Gossage on the mound, the only sane strategy was to try to set up a double play. Meggs played it right. |
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Post by 56chevy on Apr 23, 2022 8:22:07 GMT -8
Only nine ways to score from third? thinkbluela.com/2012/04/25-ways-to-score-from-third-base/A few of these wouldn't apply in the actual situation . . . but there were still a lot of ways Bazzana could have scored. All of which underscores that unless you have Goose Gossage on the mound, the only sane strategy was to try to set up a double play. Meggs played it right. In hindsight, he played it wrong. His team lost. He is Lindsey Meggs, the guy who screwed us out of the tournament in 2016. No free passes for this guy. What they needed was a strike out. Forrester was less likely to strike out than Melton or Boyd. In addition, there was no margin for error with location. In this case, count was 2-0 and they had to throw some thing Garret could hit. Meggs continues to get the baseball karma he made for himself. What a glorious night it was! |
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Post by rainmanrich on Apr 23, 2022 8:28:40 GMT -8
I might add further that the pitching strategy was also correct. Take a chance on Forrester chasing out of the zone on the first couple of pitches. They knew better and so did we, but the attempt had to be made. All in all I thought it was good strategy by the Purps.
You know I was thinking, because of the irony involved in this game (lost in sun/lost in lights/player who lost in sun homers to tie and send into extra innings/etc.) and the fact it was pretty darned good pitching, and how the game ended up with intentional walks to load 'em up, I think I'm going to call this my favorite game of the season so far. Just the right amount of quality play with a little baseball cruelty mixed in but not in favor of one team or the other. A good classic game. Not the most exciting or edge-of-your-seat but a good quality pastime game. One that you hope for when you show up to the ballpark and a good story line to remember. To me, this contest represented the game as it was intended.
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Post by hawksea on Apr 23, 2022 9:10:57 GMT -8
I thought the Melton walk was smart, but not the Boyd one. Set up the double play, then for Boyd, you pitch around the corners to try to strike him out, or if you walk him, you walk him, but don't intentionally do it. Should have also put the pitch locations to try for a ground ball. They had a lot more to play options with runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out, but they had to pitch to Forrester and couldn't afford a walk. But I'm glad they did what they did, to give us the win.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 23, 2022 9:36:14 GMT -8
I thought the Melton walk was smart, but not the Boyd one. Set up the double play, then for Boyd, you pitch around the corners to try to strike him out, or if you walk him, you walk him, but don't intentionally do it. Should have also put the pitch locations to try for a ground ball. They had a lot more to play options with runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out, but they had to pitch to Forrester and couldn't afford a walk. But I'm glad they did what they did, to give us the win. Meggs could have walked Melton and pitch to Boyd. The only issue with that is that Melton is so fast, that he is probably quickly on second anyway. But you try and get Boyd, who tends to strike out a bit more than Forrester. If you get Boyd, then you walk Forrester and put in a reliever to get Logan. I think that is the only other defensible move at that point. |
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Post by OSUprof on Apr 23, 2022 9:45:43 GMT -8
It was wrong in my opinion and here's why.
OSU was struggling offensively in the game and had only the solo shot since early in the game to tie. Despite having more hits we also hit into two double plays erasing our chances at scoring. So you have a team that can't get a clutch hit and with a runner on 3rd and one out - the best way to get a run in is via sac fly. As UW coach I want to deny them that opportunity. As OSU coach, the number one guy I want at the plate in that situation is Forrester - he has the plate discipline and can lift a ball into the outfield for a productive out. Someone else already mentioned that Melton has less than desirable plate discipline and swings at junk. Boyd is inconsistent as a hitter and like Melton is likely to give UW the 3rd inning ending double play of the game.
UW walked Melton and Boyd to get to Forrester - OSU's best chance to drive in a run and win the game. One has to throw out the textbook situational strategy and look at the reality of the game.
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 23, 2022 10:13:50 GMT -8
Meggs' decision was correct as he not only has to take into account the defensive possibilities, but OSU's offensive options. The Sac Fly is there in every scenario with one out.
By allowing Melton to hit UW would have to play the infield in. That's a no go... on turf a ball getting through with no chance of any play is very high. Plus you never let their best beat you if possible.
Putting Melton on forces Meggs to consider Boyd's wheels and ability to handle the bat. Bunt is in play... safety, suicide. Still have to play infield in as Boyd is no sure dbl play unless he hits very sharp at 'em ball. Plus Melton is probably on the move.
Forester at the plate was UW's best of the crappy options. It wasn't disrespect, it was necessity. He isn't a bunter. He's the slowest afoot of the three. Meggs eliminated as many of OSU's options as he could. Forester came thru, end of story.
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Post by bvogrande on Apr 23, 2022 11:30:39 GMT -8
if i had to coach the dawgs at that point, i am probably going to pitch to melton, give him all junk low, hoping to get him fishing. if he doesn't chase and get you that second out, then you have unintentionally intentionally walked him. then i start rolling dice on what to do with Boyd and Forrester and hoping and praying i can get to Logan with 2 outs.
so many different ways to play that if you're the opposing coach, and none of them put you in an enviable situation. i'm just glad that my beer choice was my toughest decision.
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Post by irimi on Apr 23, 2022 11:50:34 GMT -8
I think he made a good decision for pro ball, but not for college ball. Here's my thinking.
Once the bases were loaded, you add at least two more ways that Bazzana can score from 3rd: hit batter and a good old walk. This puts a ton of pressure on the pitcher to make clean pitches and it ended up being their downfall. After 2 balls, the pitcher had to send in a big fat strike. Forrester, having one of the best eyes on the team, was going to be a tough batter to get.
Granted, the game was pretty much over as soon as Bazzana made it to third with only one out. Meggs had to try something. If the pitcher had gotten ahead of Donkey, who knows?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 23, 2022 11:50:51 GMT -8
if i had to coach the dawgs at that point, i am probably going to pitch to melton, give him all junk low, hoping to get him fishing. if he doesn't chase and get you that second out, then you have unintentionally intentionally walked him. then i start rolling dice on what to do with Boyd and Forrester and hoping and praying i can get to Logan with 2 outs. so many different ways to play that if you're the opposing coach, and none of them put you in an enviable situation. i'm just glad that my beer choice was my toughest decision. Lefty-righty, though. If you are going to go low junk, I think that Boyd is your best candidate. Forrester did not chase the junk the first two pitches. Boyd may have. The other thing to remember, though, is you have Raeth on 32 pitches. He is your best pitcher. If you keep his count low, you could see a decently-rested Raeth come back on Saturday or Sunday. Plus, you are in a tight spot anyway. Even if you play it perfectly, the winning run scores almost every time. Walking the bases full was a way to force the issue, not wearing out Raeth. Raeth wins or Forrester wins. Forrester just beat Raeth. If your best pitcher can't beat their five-hole hitter.............Sometimes, it is just not your night. I think that you may have seen a different strategy on Sunday than you saw on Friday. But it is tough to argue the thinking in a Friday ballgame. |
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Post by chinmusic on Apr 23, 2022 16:37:00 GMT -8
A coaching platitude. "Blocking fastballs in te dirt is a catcher's rsponsibility. Blocking breaking balls in the dirt is the pitcher's resposibiity".
With the speedy and daring Bazzana at 3B and moving down the line with the pitch, do you really want to "go with low junk". One breaking ball in the dirt that doesn't get cleanly blocked and you lose the game. In that situation, your chucker is just about limited to fastballs and maybe a change up. Not the right time to spin one at 3,000 rpm and at 59'. I don't want to throw Melton a steady diet of fastballs. and you retire Boyd with breaking balls, so throwing him a fastall in the zone is suicidal - he'll crush it. Garrett is really tough because he is so disciplined and a fast ball hitter.
That situation limited the UW pitcher, it reduced his mix to throwing perfectly located fastballs to 5 guys that feast on that pitch.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 23, 2022 20:10:03 GMT -8
Of Melton, Boyd, and Big Country, who has the best plate discipline?
Also, when u load the bases intentionally walking two guys, you now limit your pitcher cuz he's got nowhere to put the guy with the highest OBP in the conference. I mean ur kinda screwed any way u slice it unless u strike a guy out, and get two down. I still think the call is to go after Melton and give him nothing to hit.....lots of bottom dropping out sliders that he has a tendency to chase....hope ur catcher can dig em out.....you walk him ok, now you've got the double play up the middle....although Boyd doesn't often get doubled up.....Big Country is slow.....I get that line of thought.....thing is, Big Country has been pretty hot lately....is anyone surprised he barrelled one up, up 2-0 in the count?
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Post by 56chevy on Apr 23, 2022 21:00:51 GMT -8
Of Melton, Boyd, and Big Country, who has the best plate discipline? Also, when u load the bases intentionally walking two guys, you now limit your pitcher cuz he's got nowhere to put the guy with the highest OBP in the conference. I mean ur kinda screwed any way u slice it unless u strike a guy out, and get two down. I still think the call is to go after Melton and give him nothing to hit.....lots of bottom dropping out sliders that he has a tendency to chase....hope ur catcher can dig em out.....you walk him ok, now you've got the double play up the middle....although Boyd doesn't often get doubled up.....Big Country is slow.....I get that line of thought.....thing is, Big Country has been pretty hot lately....is anyone surprised he barrelled one up, up 2-0 in the count? Could have pitched to Melton, put the third outfielder at back up to the catcher and thrown nothing but soft breaking stuff. |
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