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Post by chinmusic on Apr 1, 2022 9:49:48 GMT -8
When you see a college team with a 19-5 record and a team pitching ERA of 4.61, you immediately turn to those offensive stats to verify what you have concuded - superb offense with inconsistant pitching. Uncharacteristic to some degree of Beaver baseball - almost 10 runs per game and allowing almost 5 runs per game - when was the last time that happened? We look like the 2021 Arizona team. That ERA is at least a run and a half higher than Coach Dorman would like it to be, 9+ runs a game or not.
Some pre-game
STANFORD at No. 3 OREGON STATE
SU: 12-8, 4-5 Pac12. Offense: .278/.370/.452. Pitching: 3.69 ERA, 201Ks, 69BBs. Defense: .964
OSU: 19-5, 6-3 Pac12. Offense: .336/.444/.511. Pitching: 4.61 ERA. 220Ks, 63BBs. Defense: .987
"This is an interesting matchup for teams that seem to be at a crossroads. Two weeks ago in my Pac 12 Primer I had Stanford down as the “Best Team.” But since then they were swept at Arizona to stumble out to an 0-3 start to Pac 12 play and also fall out of the D1 rankings. The Beavers seem to be strapped to a shooting star, jumping out to a 19-5 start and exuding some dominance. Of the 19 wins, 15 of them have been by four runs or more and of the five losses, four have been by one or two runs. The Beaver offense hits .336 as a group and ranks 18th nationally with 138 walks earned. They will face off with the Cardinal arms staff that is stingy, holding opponents to a measly .232 average and has issued just 69 walks. So something has to give when these two forces face off. Of course, the big X-factor is the Cardinal offense, who is hitting just .278. In fact, All American Brock Jones is still a dormant volcano, clipping along at a paltry .275 average with just two home runs. Tommy Troy joins him in the tough luck department, hitting just .226. If these two studs can start to turn things around, this will transform the Trees into a solid force. OSU ace Cooper Hjerpe is tied for the most wins on the mound in D1 with a perfect 6-0 record and a 2.41 ERA. Early season No. 2 starter Jacob Pfennigs could be making his return after being shelved with shoulder soreness after his second start of the season back in February."
D1baseball.com
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Post by zeroposter on Apr 1, 2022 10:12:30 GMT -8
Chin, I appreciate the great baseball info that you provide. It helps keep me partially sane and rational between games as I am definitely not sane and rational during games.
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Post by 56chevy on Apr 1, 2022 10:35:50 GMT -8
We could improve this offensive production. Conforto left here with a year of eligibility. He currently is not under contract to play, and in need of a rehab assignment as a result of a January shoulder injury. Not sure, but I think he'd pay his own airfare to play a series against the ucks.
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Post by baddog847 on Apr 1, 2022 11:54:32 GMT -8
Conference stats:
OSU ERA....4.18, opponents 8.77
Stanford ERA.....5.33, opponents 5.80
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 1, 2022 13:33:47 GMT -8
When you see a college team with a 19-5 record and a team pitching ERA of 4.61, you immediately turn to those offensive stats to verify what you have concuded - superb offense with inconsistant pitching. Uncharacteristic to some degree of Beaver baseball - almost 10 runs per game and allowing almost 5 runs per game - when was the last time that happened? We look like the 2021 Arizona team. That ERA is at least a run and a half higher than Coach Dorman would like it to be, 9+ runs a game or not. Some pre-game STANFORD at No. 3 OREGON STATESU: 12-8, 4-5 Pac12. Offense: .278/.370/.452. Pitching: 3.69 ERA, 201Ks, 69BBs. Defense: .964 OSU: 19-5, 6-3 Pac12. Offense: .336/.444/.511. Pitching: 4.61 ERA. 220Ks, 63BBs. Defense: .987 "This is an interesting matchup for teams that seem to be at a crossroads. Two weeks ago in my Pac 12 Primer I had Stanford down as the “Best Team.” But since then they were swept at Arizona to stumble out to an 0-3 start to Pac 12 play and also fall out of the D1 rankings. The Beavers seem to be strapped to a shooting star, jumping out to a 19-5 start and exuding some dominance. Of the 19 wins, 15 of them have been by four runs or more and of the five losses, four have been by one or two runs. The Beaver offense hits .336 as a group and ranks 18th nationally with 138 walks earned. They will face off with the Cardinal arms staff that is stingy, holding opponents to a measly .232 average and has issued just 69 walks. So something has to give when these two forces face off. Of course, the big X-factor is the Cardinal offense, who is hitting just .278. In fact, All American Brock Jones is still a dormant volcano, clipping along at a paltry .275 average with just two home runs. Tommy Troy joins him in the tough luck department, hitting just .226. If these two studs can start to turn things around, this will transform the Trees into a solid force. OSU ace Cooper Hjerpe is tied for the most wins on the mound in D1 with a perfect 6-0 record and a 2.41 ERA. Early season No. 2 starter Jacob Pfennigs could be making his return after being shelved with shoulder soreness after his second start of the season back in February." D1baseball.com Oregon State's BAA is .268. Stanford's BAA is .232. Oregon State has 11 errors and Stanford has 26 errors. If you add errors, Oregon State's effective BAA is .281. Stanford's effective BAA is .271. That is a better analysis of how the two teams total defenses (i.e. allowing hitters to reach) are actually performing. Additionally, a big analytic tool is to look on what each team's BAA is BABIP. I will approximate this by removing HRs and Ks. Stanford's BABIP is a very high .319. Oregon State's BABIP is an insane .349. Unless there is a defensive positioning issue, it looks like Oregon State's pitching has been very unlucky. You would expect that number to be much closer to .300 as the season progresses. You would expect a greater percentage of those balls that have been just fair to be just foul going forward and those balls that are just out of a fielder's reach to be within reach going forward. |
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Post by beavaristotle on Apr 1, 2022 13:36:47 GMT -8
When you see a college team with a 19-5 record and a team pitching ERA of 4.61, you immediately turn to those offensive stats to verify what you have concuded - superb offense with inconsistant pitching. Uncharacteristic to some degree of Beaver baseball - almost 10 runs per game and allowing almost 5 runs per game - when was the last time that happened? We look like the 2021 Arizona team. That ERA is at least a run and a half higher than Coach Dorman would like it to be, 9+ runs a game or not. Some pre-game STANFORD at No. 3 OREGON STATESU: 12-8, 4-5 Pac12. Offense: .278/.370/.452. Pitching: 3.69 ERA, 201Ks, 69BBs. Defense: .964 OSU: 19-5, 6-3 Pac12. Offense: .336/.444/.511. Pitching: 4.61 ERA. 220Ks, 63BBs. Defense: .987 "This is an interesting matchup for teams that seem to be at a crossroads. Two weeks ago in my Pac 12 Primer I had Stanford down as the “Best Team.” But since then they were swept at Arizona to stumble out to an 0-3 start to Pac 12 play and also fall out of the D1 rankings. The Beavers seem to be strapped to a shooting star, jumping out to a 19-5 start and exuding some dominance. Of the 19 wins, 15 of them have been by four runs or more and of the five losses, four have been by one or two runs. The Beaver offense hits .336 as a group and ranks 18th nationally with 138 walks earned. They will face off with the Cardinal arms staff that is stingy, holding opponents to a measly .232 average and has issued just 69 walks. So something has to give when these two forces face off. Of course, the big X-factor is the Cardinal offense, who is hitting just .278. In fact, All American Brock Jones is still a dormant volcano, clipping along at a paltry .275 average with just two home runs. Tommy Troy joins him in the tough luck department, hitting just .226. If these two studs can start to turn things around, this will transform the Trees into a solid force. OSU ace Cooper Hjerpe is tied for the most wins on the mound in D1 with a perfect 6-0 record and a 2.41 ERA. Early season No. 2 starter Jacob Pfennigs could be making his return after being shelved with shoulder soreness after his second start of the season back in February." D1baseball.com Oregon State's BAA is .268. Stanford's BAA is .232. Oregon State has 11 errors and Stanford has 26 errors. If you add errors, Oregon State's effective BAA is .281. Stanford's effective BAA is .271. That is a better analysis of how the two teams total defenses (i.e. allowing hitters to reach) are actually performing. Additionally, a big analytic tool is to look on what each team's BAA is BABIP. I will approximate this by removing HRs and Ks. Stanford's BABIP is a very high .319. Oregon State's BABIP is an insane .349. Unless there is a defensive positioning issue, it looks like Oregon State's pitching has been very unlucky. You would expect that number to be much closer to .300 as the season progresses. You would expect a greater percentage of those balls that have been just fair to be just foul going forward and those balls that are just out of a fielder's reach to be within reach going forward. . I figured the high BABIP by beaver staff could be attributed to a high exit velocity |
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Post by Judge Smails on Apr 1, 2022 13:39:07 GMT -8
Oregon State's BAA is .268. Stanford's BAA is .232. Oregon State has 11 errors and Stanford has 26 errors. If you add errors, Oregon State's effective BAA is .281. Stanford's effective BAA is .271. That is a better analysis of how the two teams total defenses (i.e. allowing hitters to reach) are actually performing. Additionally, a big analytic tool is to look on what each team's BAA is BABIP. I will approximate this by removing HRs and Ks. Stanford's BABIP is a very high .319. Oregon State's BABIP is an insane .349. Unless there is a defensive positioning issue, it looks like Oregon State's pitching has been very unlucky. You would expect that number to be much closer to .300 as the season progresses. You would expect a greater percentage of those balls that have been just fair to be just foul going forward and those balls that are just out of a fielder's reach to be within reach going forward. . I figured the high BABIP by beaver staff could be attributed to a high exit velocity I thought it was the BABIPGTQ+ now......but, hey I'm old. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 1, 2022 14:02:14 GMT -8
Oregon State's BAA is .268. Stanford's BAA is .232. Oregon State has 11 errors and Stanford has 26 errors. If you add errors, Oregon State's effective BAA is .281. Stanford's effective BAA is .271. That is a better analysis of how the two teams total defenses (i.e. allowing hitters to reach) are actually performing. Additionally, a big analytic tool is to look on what each team's BAA is BABIP. I will approximate this by removing HRs and Ks. Stanford's BABIP is a very high .319. Oregon State's BABIP is an insane .349. Unless there is a defensive positioning issue, it looks like Oregon State's pitching has been very unlucky. You would expect that number to be much closer to .300 as the season progresses. You would expect a greater percentage of those balls that have been just fair to be just foul going forward and those balls that are just out of a fielder's reach to be within reach going forward. . I figured the high BABIP by beaver staff could be attributed to a high exit velocity Exit velocity can account for something like plus or minus .014094. Oregon State's .349 is outside of that, so there is probably something else that is a primary driver for the high BABIP. If Oregon State is not shifting enough or playing too deep, that would be more likely to account for the delta. Otherwise, it seems more probable that the sample size is just not large enough and will shrink in time. |
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Post by irimi on Apr 1, 2022 21:46:32 GMT -8
I can’t believe the irony of this thread title. Were we jinxed?
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Post by chinmusic on Apr 2, 2022 0:33:27 GMT -8
It had all the apperances of a team that was playing their 6th game in 8 days. Add in a couple of travel days and you had a tired looking team. The coaches looked fatigued. Hjerpe looked rested, he hadn't played for a week. I thought we were out of gas offensively. No Mojo.
Tomorrow is a new day.
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Post by irimi on Apr 2, 2022 7:29:53 GMT -8
It had all the apperances of a team that was playing their 6th game in 8 days. Add in a couple of travel days and you had a tired looking team. The coaches looked fatigued. Hjerpe looked rested, he hadn't played for a week. I thought we were out of gas offensively. No Mojo. Tomorrow is a new day. “No Mojo” So true! Luckily, Hjerpe gave the defense the night off, so maybe they’ll be rested for today.  |
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Post by Werebeaver on Apr 2, 2022 9:30:30 GMT -8
. I figured the high BABIP by beaver staff could be attributed to a high exit velocity Exit velocity can account for something like plus or minus .014094. Oregon State's .349 is outside of that, so there is probably something else that is a primary driver for the high BABIP. If Oregon State is not shifting enough or playing too deep, that would be more likely to account for the delta. Otherwise, it seems more probable that the sample size is just not large enough and will shrink in time. Glad you got that 6th significant digit in there. (and no Smails, don't even think of it..) |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 2, 2022 9:31:49 GMT -8
Good pitching beats good hitting. True since the start of baseball.
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Post by zeroposter on Apr 2, 2022 9:46:14 GMT -8
Speaks no of the offense, it looked to me that Boyd took the wicked foul ball into the Beaver dugout off his head. Maybe the shoulder. He definitely wasn’t his usual, exhuberant self afterwards.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 2, 2022 10:06:35 GMT -8
It had all the apperances of a team that was playing their 6th game in 8 days. Add in a couple of travel days and you had a tired looking team. The coaches looked fatigued. Hjerpe looked rested, he hadn't played for a week. I thought we were out of gas offensively. No Mojo. Tomorrow is a new day. I hope so,cuz we shouldn't expect the same kind of shut down performance from Kmatz. |
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