Handicapping OSU's chances at the Seattle Gymnastics regional
Mar 22, 2022 10:56:36 GMT -8
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Post by jimbeav on Mar 22, 2022 10:56:36 GMT -8
The gymnastics regional lineups were announced, and I did some quick analysis in my head, and thought I'd share.
First of all, OSU's gymnastics fortunes have fallen lately (or more accurately, more programs across the country have shot into the stratosphere and OSU hasn't kept up), so I haven't followed it that closely in recent years, and the first thing I noticed is that the regional format has changed from the last time I looked at this. There used to be 6 teams in each regional, and the top 2 teams from each regional went on to Nationals. This has now been replaced with an 8-team regional, with a 'regional semifinal' and 'regional final'. There will be two regional semifinals of 4 teams (morning and evening), and the top two will finishers in each semifinal will face off in a 4-team regional final 2 days later. The top two teams from that regional final will go on to Nationals.
Here are the regional lineups:
Morning semifinal:
Utah (ranked #4)
OSU (ranked #13)
Illinois (unranked)
Stanford or San Jose State (apparently there's also a 'meet-in' match. Both teams are unranked)
Evening semifinal:
Alabama (ranked #5)
Michigan State (ranked #12)
BYU (unranked)
Washington (unranked)
Unlike many other sports, the rankings here are actually pretty meaningful, because they are mathematically calculated based on some weighted average of meet scores during the season (weighted in the fact that some low scores are dropped, road scores are worth more, etc). Right away, the odds of all the ranked teams including OSU making it out of the semifinal and into the regional final are pretty high; there's quite a score differential between a #13 ranking, and being unranked. So barring some major catastrophe across multiple gymnasts, OSU should make it into the regional final with the other 3 ranked teams.
After that, things get more dicey. To make the top-2 and go on to Nationals, not only will OSU have to overcome Michigan State with a very similar average season score, they will need to elevate enough to overcome either #4 Utah or #5 Alabama. Utah already beat OSU in their regular-season matchup. Such an upset has happened before for OSU in a regional, but the odds aren't good; we'll need to be near perfection, and one of the favorites will need to count a bad score or two.
One final comment: The scores for college gymnatics are getting really insane; I was a big fan of OSU gymnastics when I attended in the 90s, but a big reason why I stopped following and caring as much is because the scoring is so wonky. OSU surpassed a 197 team score 6 times this year, which is outstanding; the first time in over 20 years they've done that. And yet, that's only good enough for a #13 ranking. Many teams commonly score over 198, and I've even seen 199's. To put that in perspective, a 198 means that the AVERAGE score across all gymnasts is a 9.9 out of 10. I don't know how the top squads consistently put together a squad full of near-perfectionists, but we've never been able to do that, and I'm not sure we ever will. Add in the fact that scoring can be very subjective across judges and across regions, and it's kinda soured me on the whole sport. Still, it's exciting to see the energy that Jade Carey has pumped into the program. Maybe she can be a catalyst to catapult us back among the ranks of the elite....
First of all, OSU's gymnastics fortunes have fallen lately (or more accurately, more programs across the country have shot into the stratosphere and OSU hasn't kept up), so I haven't followed it that closely in recent years, and the first thing I noticed is that the regional format has changed from the last time I looked at this. There used to be 6 teams in each regional, and the top 2 teams from each regional went on to Nationals. This has now been replaced with an 8-team regional, with a 'regional semifinal' and 'regional final'. There will be two regional semifinals of 4 teams (morning and evening), and the top two will finishers in each semifinal will face off in a 4-team regional final 2 days later. The top two teams from that regional final will go on to Nationals.
Here are the regional lineups:
Morning semifinal:
Utah (ranked #4)
OSU (ranked #13)
Illinois (unranked)
Stanford or San Jose State (apparently there's also a 'meet-in' match. Both teams are unranked)
Evening semifinal:
Alabama (ranked #5)
Michigan State (ranked #12)
BYU (unranked)
Washington (unranked)
Unlike many other sports, the rankings here are actually pretty meaningful, because they are mathematically calculated based on some weighted average of meet scores during the season (weighted in the fact that some low scores are dropped, road scores are worth more, etc). Right away, the odds of all the ranked teams including OSU making it out of the semifinal and into the regional final are pretty high; there's quite a score differential between a #13 ranking, and being unranked. So barring some major catastrophe across multiple gymnasts, OSU should make it into the regional final with the other 3 ranked teams.
After that, things get more dicey. To make the top-2 and go on to Nationals, not only will OSU have to overcome Michigan State with a very similar average season score, they will need to elevate enough to overcome either #4 Utah or #5 Alabama. Utah already beat OSU in their regular-season matchup. Such an upset has happened before for OSU in a regional, but the odds aren't good; we'll need to be near perfection, and one of the favorites will need to count a bad score or two.
One final comment: The scores for college gymnatics are getting really insane; I was a big fan of OSU gymnastics when I attended in the 90s, but a big reason why I stopped following and caring as much is because the scoring is so wonky. OSU surpassed a 197 team score 6 times this year, which is outstanding; the first time in over 20 years they've done that. And yet, that's only good enough for a #13 ranking. Many teams commonly score over 198, and I've even seen 199's. To put that in perspective, a 198 means that the AVERAGE score across all gymnasts is a 9.9 out of 10. I don't know how the top squads consistently put together a squad full of near-perfectionists, but we've never been able to do that, and I'm not sure we ever will. Add in the fact that scoring can be very subjective across judges and across regions, and it's kinda soured me on the whole sport. Still, it's exciting to see the energy that Jade Carey has pumped into the program. Maybe she can be a catalyst to catapult us back among the ranks of the elite....
