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Post by flyfishinbeav on Mar 13, 2022 16:43:23 GMT -8
Why didn't they walk Mathews right there? He was hot.....seems like a no brainer to me If you don't trust your closer to get an out, then he isn't a closer. Verburg should get anyone out, no matter how the batter did earlier in the game. Right but it's situational. Mathews means nothing on first. |
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Post by osuft3 on Mar 13, 2022 16:45:41 GMT -8
I think we need more close games to give the closer work and/or identify a strong closer. I think we need to closely look for a closer to close our close games 😀 If that's not the answer, it's close. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 13, 2022 16:46:26 GMT -8
I think we need to closely look for a closer to close our close games 😀 If that's not the answer, it's close. But, no cigar? |
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Post by messi on Mar 13, 2022 16:53:07 GMT -8
So UCLA loses their series to SC, that has only happened twice since John Savage arrived. Stanford gets sloppy and loses a series to o. Arizona choked their opportunity of getting a sweep in Cal on Friday. And then you have the Beavers. The conference tournament could get interesting.
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Post by niner on Mar 13, 2022 17:02:00 GMT -8
50+ game season, would have loved the sweep on opening weekend but must keep it prospective. It’s all about winning series in the Pac12..we did that! A week ago Texas was unbeatable, they got swept in DH today..it’s baseball! Need to get healthy and keep grinding through!
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Post by avidbeaver on Mar 13, 2022 17:04:53 GMT -8
Nothing good can come from free passes. Verburg doesn't look like a closer at this moment. I think there will be a short leash if he loses another chance at a save. Hasn't Verburg had issues with hitting batters in previous years? Seems to me I remember him plunking batters in previous years. Even if he doesn't have a history, you can't give up free passes when you come in to close the game. In this instance he hit a batter that allowed the tying run to get in scoring position. Even the outs appeared to be well hit.
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Post by OSUprof on Mar 13, 2022 17:47:15 GMT -8
So many chances to blow that game open and kept leaving the door open. While folks are looking for answers in the pitching staff, some blame has to be shouldered by the guys at the plate. Some would say that 8 runs should be enough to win it is also clear that 8 runs is below this team's average. That's two Sundays in a row that the offense has had less than season averages in hits and runs, and the end result is two losses. If our pitching is the problem, why did the team have less hits and runs in each loss? This team will need more run support for the third game in the series or this will trend will continue. This should be especially true with the loss of two key members of the pitching staff. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Mar 13, 2022 18:06:59 GMT -8
I wouldn't be surprised to see Carpenter, Lawson, or Sebby get a shot at closer
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Post by obf on Mar 14, 2022 10:04:02 GMT -8
Yes closer needs to be sorted out (Or Verburg needs to get back to form).
Yes offense needs to capitalize on all of their opportunities (although really... can't complain about an offense scoring 10+ a game, and eight in this particular game).
However, the other factor in this game is we need to get our starting pitching hellathy. Kmatz has, IMHO, solidified himself as a weekend starter, but Townsend hasn't. You can't overlook how much pressure it puts on a bullpen to have to come in in the fourth inning. We need a Sunday starter that can at least go 5 innings with not too much damage. If Pfennigs gets healthy that solves most of it. Pfennigs gets Saturday and Kmatz gets Sunday.
Give WSU some credit too, their offense was pretty meh Friday and Saturday, but stepped it up big time on Sunday, especially some of the upper classmen leaders who had been batting in the 100's. For those of us only listening and not watching.... How legit where the HBP?? Worden said Verburg asked plate ump to verify the second HBP didn't lean in. Both came with the batter behind in the count. Shouldn't rattle your Closer, but definitely might have led him to center more pitches?
Final thought... I know it is a bigger part of college baseball and definitely a part of the Beaver identity... But it drives me crazy when they ask a .400 hitter to lay down a sac bunt, smh L
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Post by chinmusic on Mar 14, 2022 13:12:50 GMT -8
A lot of good points in this thread. My two-bits FWIW on some of the stuff mentioned.
Lots of parity in the PAC-12. Many capable teams - every win is precious. My thinking? You are only as good as your last game.
We do not have a "model closer per se". Carpenter probably comes closest to the model. Ideally you want a power arm with high gas and good movement on the fastball and a wipe-out slider. Closers need to be strike throwers that can get the K or a DP ball when needed. D.J. can sit on 95 and reach 97 which seperates him from the rest of the pen. IMHO, Mitch is more set-up than closer. Closers don't need a curve ball or a change-up. Two power pitches with location and game over. The Beavs may be faced with closing with the best guy for a given situation. Nobody on and need 3 outs or bases loaded and need 1 out - many varaibles, matchup advantage, hitter with breaking ball weakness, etc,
The sacrifice bunt is a tool to advance a runner into scoring position or to take away the DP situation. It's a tool in HS and college ball, a rarity in Pro ball. The analytical thinking is data based and it says, the out is more valuable than advancing a runner. The prep and college coaches know there are 10 ways to score a runner from 3b and only 2 from 2B - they want to get that runner to 3B.
Analytically, the Sac Bunt is not a smart play. There are only two situations that improve scoring expectancy - A runner at 2B with no outs or runners at 1st and 2nd with no outs. Giving up an out with a sacrifice while moving runners to 2nd and 3rd actually lowers your % of scoring a run. The rule: An out loses more than a base gains. Coaches will acknowledge that the SAC Bunt can be a good 1-run strategy given the right conditions. Here are some numbers to consider on the probability of scoring 1 or more runs with a sac-bunt.
These numbers represent post-bunt actuals. Pre-bunt % is always higher since that data represents probibility before the bunt is executed and as we all know, not all sac bunt attempts are executed to plan.
Runner on 1B, 0 outs: Probabiity of scoring = 0.447%
Runner on 1B, 1 out: % drops to 0.255
Runner on 2B, 0 outs: Probability of scoring = 0.666%
Runner at 2B, 1 out: % drops to 0.271
Runners at 1B and 2B, 0 outs: Probability of scoring = 0.695 (the best of all)
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Post by irimi on Mar 14, 2022 13:34:49 GMT -8
A lot of good points in this thread. My two-bits FWIW on some of the stuff mentioned. Lots of parity in the PAC-12. Many capable teams - every win is precious. My thinking? You are only as good as your last game. We do not have a "model closer per se". Carpenter probably comes closest to the model. Ideally you want a power arm with high gas and good movement on the fastball and a wipe-out slider. Closers need to be strike throwers that can get the K or a DP ball when needed. D.J. can sit on 95 and reach 97 which seperates him from the rest of the pen. IMHO, Mitch is more set-up than closer. Closers don't need a curve ball or a change-up. Two power pitches with location and game over. The Beavs may be faced with closing with the best guy for a given situation. Nobody on and need 3 outs or bases loaded and need 1 out - many varaibles, matchup advantage, hitter with breaking ball weakness, etc, The sacrifice bunt is a tool to advance a runner into scoring position or to take away the DP situation. It's a tool in HS and college ball, a rarity in Pro ball. The analytical thinking is data based and it says, the out is more valuable than advancing a runner. The prep and college coaches know there are 10 ways to score a runner from 3b and only 2 from 2B - they want to get that runner to 3B. Analytically, the Sac Bunt is not a smart play. There are only two situations that improve scoring expectancy - A runner at 2B with no outs or runners at 1st and 2nd with no outs. Giving up an out with a sacrifice while moving runners to 2nd and 3rd actually lowers your % of scoring a run. The rule: An out loses more than a base gains. Coaches will acknowledge that the SAC Bunt can be a good 1-run strategy given the right conditions. Here are some numbers to consider on the probability of scoring 1 or more runs with a sac-bunt. These numbers represent post-bunt actuals. Pre-bunt % is always higher since that data represents probibility before the bunt is executed and as we all know, not all sac bunt attempts are executed to plan. Runner on 1B, 0 outs: Probabiity of scoring = 0.447% Runner on 1B, 1 out: % drops to 0.255 Runner on 2B, 0 outs: Probability of scoring = 0.666% Runner at 2B, 1 out: % drops to 0.271 Runners at 1B and 2B, 0 outs: Probability of scoring = 0.695 (the best of all) Lots of ways to look at bunts, but avoiding the GIDP ball (which clears the bases of runners) is an important reason to do it, in my book. But, yeah, situational stats are important. How has the batter been hitting recently? What kind of pitches has the pitcher been throwing with command? Who is on first? A .400 hitter who has been sending them off the wall should be given the green light. A .400 hitter who has been grounding them through the infield to the outfield should probably bunt. |
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 14, 2022 13:57:00 GMT -8
A lot of good points in this thread. My two-bits FWIW on some of the stuff mentioned. Lots of parity in the PAC-12. Many capable teams - every win is precious. My thinking? You are only as good as your last game. We do not have a "model closer per se". Carpenter probably comes closest to the model. Ideally you want a power arm with high gas and good movement on the fastball and a wipe-out slider. Closers need to be strike throwers that can get the K or a DP ball when needed. D.J. can sit on 95 and reach 97 which seperates him from the rest of the pen. IMHO, Mitch is more set-up than closer. Closers don't need a curve ball or a change-up. Two power pitches with location and game over. The Beavs may be faced with closing with the best guy for a given situation. Nobody on and need 3 outs or bases loaded and need 1 out - many varaibles, matchup advantage, hitter with breaking ball weakness, etc, The sacrifice bunt is a tool to advance a runner into scoring position or to take away the DP situation. It's a tool in HS and college ball, a rarity in Pro ball. The analytical thinking is data based and it says, the out is more valuable than advancing a runner. The prep and college coaches know there are 10 ways to score a runner from 3b and only 2 from 2B - they want to get that runner to 3B. Analytically, the Sac Bunt is not a smart play. There are only two situations that improve scoring expectancy - A runner at 2B with no outs or runners at 1st and 2nd with no outs. Giving up an out with a sacrifice while moving runners to 2nd and 3rd actually lowers your % of scoring a run. The rule: An out loses more than a base gains. Coaches will acknowledge that the SAC Bunt can be a good 1-run strategy given the right conditions. Here are some numbers to consider on the probability of scoring 1 or more runs with a sac-bunt. These numbers represent post-bunt actuals. Pre-bunt % is always higher since that data represents probibility before the bunt is executed and as we all know, not all sac bunt attempts are executed to plan. Runner on 1B, 0 outs: Probabiity of scoring = 0.447% Runner on 1B, 1 out: % drops to 0.255 Runner on 2B, 0 outs: Probability of scoring = 0.666% Runner at 2B, 1 out: % drops to 0.271 Runners at 1B and 2B, 0 outs: Probability of scoring = 0.695 (the best of all) Lots of ways to look at bunts, but avoiding the GIDP ball (which clears the bases of runners) is an important reason to do it, in my book. But, yeah, situational stats are important. How has the batter been hitting recently? What kind of pitches has the pitcher been throwing with command? Who is on first? A .400 hitter who has been sending them off the wall should be given the green light. A .400 hitter who has been grounding them through the infield to the outfield should probably bunt. In that situation with most regulars in the OSU lineup I'd likely be prone to H&R. R&H if a true steal threat on. Even if the baserunner just has good reads and instincts I'm a H&R guy. Both of those options create more pressure and movement on the defense. Again, coaches know their talent best. But, you can't handle the stick to do either you're a liability. Like teaching youngsters to golf. Driver etc stays in the bag until you can chip & putt. We always stressed not only bunting (situational, directional), but slap bunts and hitting behind runners. Bat & eye control were key to everything else. Some just never have the patience or discipline to excel at it. But, OSU has plenty of kids that should. |
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