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Post by bvrbooster on Feb 12, 2022 14:31:17 GMT -8
Virtually every college team in the nation, when they get the ball with under 30 seconds left in a quarter, will hold it for the last shot. Many, including Oregon State, don't start their offense until about 8 seconds left, and the point guard is holding the ball somewhere between midcourt and the top of the arc. I don't have the stats available to back the following up, but I would strongly suspect these assertions are true everywhere, not just at OSU:
(1) Doing this is significantly less likely to result in points than running your regular offense; in other words, a team will shoot a lower percentage on such shots than their overall season average.
(2) The longer a team waits to start their offense, the lower the percentage goes. If you treat it like a regular possession, over time you should score at about the same percentage as your season average. At some point (15 seconds? I don't know), however, the success rate starts to go down markedly.
(3) Once you've passed that 15 seconds (or whatever it is) mark, the success rate goes down noticeably for each extra second you delay. If you wait until 8 seconds, as we do, it becomes abysmally low.
(4) It stands to reason that, if the success rate is abysmally low for a team starting their offense at the 8 second mark with the ball on their side of the court, it would be lower yet for a team starting at the wrong end of the court if they got the ball back with about 6 seconds left.
(5) So now I'll just make up numbers for an illustration. OSU is shooting 41.2% for the year (which includes numerous failed end of quarter possessions), and our opponents are, collectively, 35.8%. (Those numbers are accurate.) If we start an end of quarter offense with 20 seconds left, we should be pretty close to 41.2%. If we start the offense at 8 seconds, the success rate is, say, 12%. The other 88% of the time, the opponent gets the ball back (or the clock runs out), and their success rate approaches zero.
(6) But what happens if, instead of starting the offense at 6 seconds, we start it at 20 and the shot goes up at 8 seconds? It will go in 41.2% of the time. If it misses, the other team starts their offense with 6 seconds left, and they have to go the length of the floor. If it's 12% starting near the top of the key with 8 seconds, maybe it's 4% starting under your own basket with 6 seconds.
(7) So, starting your offense at 20 seconds might make you 3 times more likely to score, and 10 times more likely to score the final points of the quarter than your opponent. I would take that over possibly scoring 1 time out of 8, rather than the normal 2 times out of 5, just so your opponent's chances are zero rather than 1 in 25.
Your thoughts?
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nuds
Freshman
Posts: 12
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Post by nuds on Feb 12, 2022 14:44:51 GMT -8
The obvious reason is that it is smart for a team to get the last shot of a quarter rather than let the other team have the last shot. That way they get an extra possession and a chance to increase their lead and not be hurt if they don't score.
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Post by beaveragain on Feb 12, 2022 14:54:19 GMT -8
All coaches in all sports are very conservative. At the end of games they play not to lose instead of to win. Drives me nuts. But then I'm a bleeding heart liberal of the worst stripe, so I guess all of this makes sense of some sort.
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Post by fridaynightlights on Feb 12, 2022 14:59:41 GMT -8
Interesting premise, you may be onto something. It is kind of a basic rule of coaching 101 to play for the last shot. It would be interesting to see what the actual percentages are in these situations. Some of the success or lack of it, will depend on how good the player is you are putting in isolation is at creating and making their own shot or creating a good shot for a teammate. Coaches often think that if you have the right player with the ball in their hands at the end of a quarter or game and execute correctly you can get a "good" shot. I am sure some coaches practice these situations more than others. Some teams make an absolute mess of it, others do it pretty well.
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Post by beaveragain on Feb 12, 2022 15:13:03 GMT -8
To be fair, when OSU had Katie Mac she would hit about 101% of those end of games, need to hit it to win the game, kind of shots.
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Post by rgeorge on Feb 12, 2022 15:15:05 GMT -8
Interesting premise, you may be onto something. It is kind of a basic rule of coaching 101 to play for the last shot. It would be interesting to see what the actual percentages are in these situations. Some of the success or lack of it, will depend on how good the player is you are putting in isolation is at creating and making their own shot or creating a good shot for a teammate. Coaches often think that if you have the right player with the ball in their hands at the end of a quarter or game and execute correctly you can get a "good" shot. I am sure some coaches practice these situations more than others. Some teams make an absolute mess of it, others do it pretty well. Except all those supposed rates of success/failure based on time are made up/guessing. Plus, there's a two other single factors that correlate to consider: A) FTs, some end of quarter possession end at the free throw line not shot attempts. Freebies and creates foul trouble?? B) IF indeed end of qtr possessions are even half of the normal %, the opponent % is nonexistent. They get no chance to score. And, in SR's scheme the end of qtr and regular offense is pretty much the same. OSU uses a ton of clock on most set possessions. |
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Post by grad1973 on Feb 12, 2022 15:24:11 GMT -8
To be fair, when OSU had Katie Mac she would hit about 101% of those end of games, need to hit it to win the game, kind of shots. I’d also include pelvic and tutor in with Katie. We have had some remarkable endings for girls game recently. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Feb 12, 2022 17:35:46 GMT -8
To be fair, when OSU had Katie Mac she would hit about 101% of those end of games, need to hit it to win the game, kind of shots. I’d also include pelvic and tutor in with Katie. We have had some remarkable endings for girls game recently. There's a definite difference between making a shot at or near the buzzer to win a game and the scenario I described. In the former, your absolute only goal is score or lose, and you're not going to concern yourself with how much time is left for the other team. If anything, you'd want time left on the clock for an offensive rebound or fouling the other team if they get the ball back. In the scenario I put forth, it's just the end of one of the first three quarters. True, my numbers were made up, and I don't know that anybody has any actual numbers. But they could; all it requires is watching a lot of tape and recording the data. If my premise is correct, it would behoove individual coaches to spend the time to do it and work out the most effective time to start the offense, both in terms of you scoring and the other team not doing so. As somebody else pointed out, waiting until the last second is much like playing not to lose - the prevent defense in football. Unless the person holding the ball is Michael Jordan, the coach is most probably putting way too much faith in that person, and way too little faith in his defense if the other team gets the ball back with 6 seconds. I've been watching the Beavs start the offense with 8 seconds all year, and Three Fingers Brown could count on one hand the number of times it's worked, and still have fingers left over. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Feb 12, 2022 18:54:00 GMT -8
To be fair, when OSU had Katie Mac she would hit about 101% of those end of games, need to hit it to win the game, kind of shots. I’d also include pelvic and tutor in with Katie. We have had some remarkable endings for girls game recently. Pelvic and Tutor….lol |
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Post by william44 on Feb 12, 2022 19:35:56 GMT -8
It is wise to hold for last show if there is a way to the basket. When You jack up a hurried shot it gives us nothing. My pet peeve is say with 1;10 to go and we have ball. Do we play 2 possessions to one? I would say not. Watch what Stanford And Oregon do with that much time.
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Post by Judge Smails on Feb 12, 2022 19:55:00 GMT -8
It is wise to hold for last show if there is a way to the basket. When You jack up a hurried shot it gives us nothing. My pet peeve is say with 1;10 to go and we have ball. Do we play 2 possessions to one? I would say not. Watch what Stanford And Oregon do with that much time. Well you don’t do it with that much time on the clock. It’s only a 30 second shot clock. You need to be well under 1 minute before you employ that strategy. |
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Post by jimbob on Feb 12, 2022 20:06:20 GMT -8
I agree with you bvrbooster....waiting until only 8-10 seconds left on the clock to start your offense for the last shot of a quarter or half or game usually results in a hurried poor shot with little chance of going in. I see this same thing happen multiple times a game for about 80% of the college basketball games I watch women or men across the board!....Waiting until 8-10 seconds to go usually only works for a very well-coached team that has practiced this situation so much that every player knows exactly when to go and what to do at that time, OR a team with a talented veteran pg who can create her own shot or just drive it to the hoop and get fouled during those last 8-10 seconds. I think the rest of the teams including our team should start their offense with about 15 seconds left....this should result in some sort of a decent shot with about 3-4 seconds left on the clock which would also give the team an O-Board chance if the shot is missed....and if the shot is missed and the other team gets the rebound it's very unlikely they will get anything more than a wild half-court heave as time runs out.
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Post by Judge Smails on Feb 12, 2022 20:19:49 GMT -8
I agree with you bvrbooster....waiting until only 8-10 seconds left on the clock to start your offense for the last shot of a quarter or half or game usually results in a hurried poor shot with little chance of going in. I see this same thing happen multiple times a game for about 80% of the college basketball games I watch women or men across the board!....Waiting until 8-10 seconds to go usually only works for a very well-coached team that has practiced this situation so much that every player knows exactly when to go and what to do at that time, OR a team with a talented veteran pg who can create her own shot or just drive it to the hoop and get fouled during those last 8-10 seconds. I think the rest of the teams including our team should start their offense with about 15 seconds left....this should result in some sort of a decent shot with about 3-4 seconds left on the clock which would also give the team an O-Board chance if the shot is missed....and if the shot is missed and the other team gets the rebound it's very unlikely they will get anything more than a wild half-court heave as time runs out. I agree with your timing for men’s games, but in the women’s game, you can advance the ball after a timeout, which means you need to start at 10 seconds or under to make sure the other team doesn’t get a shot. |
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Post by jimbob on Feb 12, 2022 20:35:47 GMT -8
Good point Judge but I think for most women teams then the mark to go should be 12 seconds....waiting until 10 seconds rarely results in a good shot---unless you have that veteran pg and are well-coached for the situation then 10 seconds ok.
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Post by bvrbooster on Feb 12, 2022 21:07:16 GMT -8
I agree with you bvrbooster....waiting until only 8-10 seconds left on the clock to start your offense for the last shot of a quarter or half or game usually results in a hurried poor shot with little chance of going in. I see this same thing happen multiple times a game for about 80% of the college basketball games I watch women or men across the board!....Waiting until 8-10 seconds to go usually only works for a very well-coached team that has practiced this situation so much that every player knows exactly when to go and what to do at that time, OR a team with a talented veteran pg who can create her own shot or just drive it to the hoop and get fouled during those last 8-10 seconds. I think the rest of the teams including our team should start their offense with about 15 seconds left....this should result in some sort of a decent shot with about 3-4 seconds left on the clock which would also give the team an O-Board chance if the shot is missed....and if the shot is missed and the other team gets the rebound it's very unlikely they will get anything more than a wild half-court heave as time runs out. I agree with your timing for men’s games, but in the women’s game, you can advance the ball after a timeout, which means you need to start at 10 seconds or under to make sure the other team doesn’t get a shot. jimbob, that's exactly what I was saying. Small One, that's a valid point, but they still presumably have but 6 seconds to run their in bounds play and score. You'd need to run the actual success or failure numbers on that as well. Plus, I would remind you, this scenario only cones into play at the end of the first, second, and third quarters. Not sure too many coaches would want to burn a time out at that point to advance the ball. Once again, that decision might be made based on the stats. |
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