|
|
Post by chinmusic on Jul 6, 2021 12:58:40 GMT -8
The upcoming MLB 2021 Draft will be like watching paint dry for Beaver baseball fans. The pundits are all slotting our lead Pony between the #134 and #140 selection in the draft. That equates to the top half of the 5th round a bonus slot of less than $400k for Kevin Abel. He may be offered more but doesn't have much leverage other than having another year of college eligibility.
I continue to hope he will be valued for his makeup, breaking ball and change up, and the fact that he was coasting at 92 mph late in the season. Mechanical issues leading to poor command of his fastball was damaging in the eyes of the scouts. His secondary stuff is filthy and locating a 92 mph fastball on the perimeters of the strike zone is more than adequate for Pro ball. I hope an MLB team will see that and feel they can solve the mechanical issues that hindered him in 2021. If Dorman and the OSU staff couldn't resolve his problems this year, I doubt he would return for the 2022 campaign if he is disappointed in his draft. I'm sure our coaches tried hard to correct his mechanical flaw - they might have just needed more time with him. He was idle for a long time following his elbow surgery.
D-1 Baseball is the latest baseball site to release a draft prediction with their draft prognostication - they have Abel ranked #140 on their list of Top-150 college draft prospects. That would push him back to a range of the 8th or 9th round with the high school kids factored into the draft.
I'm troubled by that ranking, they have Andrew Walling ranked 71 slots ahead of Kevin at #69. WTF? is that a serious ranking?
Arizona has three players ranked, OF Ryan Holgate at # 71, RHP Chase Silseth at # 85, and 1B Bryan Boissier at # 89. Three Wilcats could be gone after 5 or 6 rounds.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaver56 on Jul 6, 2021 14:03:08 GMT -8
Walling is left handed which always makes kids more valuable in the eyes of scouts and was up to 97 mph this spring so yes I would say that draft projection is real.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 6, 2021 14:03:31 GMT -8
The upcoming MLB 2021 Draft will be like watching paint dry for Beaver baseball fans. The pundits are all slotting our lead Pony between the #134 and #140 selection in the draft. That equates to the top half of the 5th round a bonus slot of less than $400k for Kevin Abel. He may be offered more but doesn't have much leverage other than having another year of college eligibility. I continue to hope he will be valued for his makeup, breaking ball and change up, and the fact that he was coasting at 92 mph late in the season. Mechanical issues leading to poor command of his fastball was damaging in the eyes of the scouts. His secondary stuff is filthy and locating a 92 mph fastball on the perimeters of the strike zone is more than adequate for Pro ball. I hope an MLB team will see that and feel they can solve the mechanical issues that hindered him in 2021. If Dorman and the OSU staff couldn't resolve his problems this year, I doubt he would return for the 2022 campaign if he is disappointed in his draft. I'm sure our coaches tried hard to correct his mechanical flaw - they might have just needed more time with him. He was idle for a long time following his elbow surgery. D-1 Baseball is the latest baseball site to release a draft prediction with their draft prognostication - they have Abel ranked #140 on their list of Top-150 college draft prospects. That would push him back to a range of the 8th or 9th round with the high school kids factored into the draft. I'm troubled by that ranking, they have Andrew Walling ranked 71 slots ahead of Kevin at #69. WTF? is that a serious ranking? Arizona has three players ranked, OF Ryan Holgate at # 71, RHP Chase Silseth at # 85, and 1B Bryan Boissier at # 89. Three Wilcats could be gone after 5 or 6 rounds. Kevin Abel has two years of college eligibility, so he has that. Abel is undervalued. I believe that, when he gets to the next level, he will have the advantage of having a consistent zone. Abel can load up a consistent zone. He showed it in 2018 at the College World Series. With above-average NCAA umpires, he showed that he can consistently hit corners and strike people out. I have to believe that he is held in a higher regard by the MLB teams than by "pundits." Plus, Mick Abel is already pushing to be promoted to AA. The thing that Abel has going against him is that everyone passed on him last year. And with two years of eligibility remaining (as opposed to three), signing Abel is still going to be an expensive proposition. It might be more cost effective to try and draft a junior rather than potentially squander a pick on Abel. The more risk adverse the MLB teams are, the lower Abel falls. Plus, at 22 years old, Abel is old to be viewed as something of a project. Andrew Walling is a lefty with a bigger frame with a supposedly better fastball (98 MPH) than Abel with a plus slider, an average changeup and a worse curve. I see some Second-Third Round noise. We'll see. |
|
|
|
Post by Judge Smails on Jul 6, 2021 14:14:54 GMT -8
The upcoming MLB 2021 Draft will be like watching paint dry for Beaver baseball fans. The pundits are all slotting our lead Pony between the #134 and #140 selection in the draft. That equates to the top half of the 5th round a bonus slot of less than $400k for Kevin Abel. He may be offered more but doesn't have much leverage other than having another year of college eligibility. I continue to hope he will be valued for his makeup, breaking ball and change up, and the fact that he was coasting at 92 mph late in the season. Mechanical issues leading to poor command of his fastball was damaging in the eyes of the scouts. His secondary stuff is filthy and locating a 92 mph fastball on the perimeters of the strike zone is more than adequate for Pro ball. I hope an MLB team will see that and feel they can solve the mechanical issues that hindered him in 2021. If Dorman and the OSU staff couldn't resolve his problems this year, I doubt he would return for the 2022 campaign if he is disappointed in his draft. I'm sure our coaches tried hard to correct his mechanical flaw - they might have just needed more time with him. He was idle for a long time following his elbow surgery. D-1 Baseball is the latest baseball site to release a draft prediction with their draft prognostication - they have Abel ranked #140 on their list of Top-150 college draft prospects. That would push him back to a range of the 8th or 9th round with the high school kids factored into the draft. I'm troubled by that ranking, they have Andrew Walling ranked 71 slots ahead of Kevin at #69. WTF? is that a serious ranking? Arizona has three players ranked, OF Ryan Holgate at # 71, RHP Chase Silseth at # 85, and 1B Bryan Boissier at # 89. Three Wilcats could be gone after 5 or 6 rounds. Kevin Abel has two years of college eligibility, so he has that. Abel is undervalued. I believe that, when he gets to the next level, he will have the advantage of having a consistent zone. Abel can load up a consistent zone. He showed it in 2018 at the College World Series. With above-average NCAA umpires, he showed that he can consistently hit corners and strike people out. I have to believe that he is held in a higher regard by the MLB teams than by "pundits." Plus, Mick Abel is already pushing to be promoted to AA. The thing that Abel has going against him is that everyone passed on him last year. And with two years of eligibility remaining (as opposed to three), signing Abel is still going to be an expensive proposition. It might be more cost effective to try and draft a junior rather than potentially squander a pick on Abel. The more risk adverse the MLB teams are, the lower Abel falls. Plus, at 22 years old, Abel is old to be viewed as something of a project. Andrew Walling is a lefty with a bigger frame with a supposedly better fastball (98 MPH) than Abel with a plus slider, an average changeup and a worse curve. I see some Second-Third Round noise. We'll see. Mick Abel has nothing to do with Kevin Abel......why bring that up? |
|
|
|
Post by giantkillers83 on Jul 6, 2021 18:28:16 GMT -8
And … love Kevin Abel…. He filled zone late in 2018 reg season and post season. He won osu a CWS title. No one can take that away.
But prior… early freshman year he was very inconsistent. And this year…. 2021…. Very inconsistent. He got out of some jams but hit a ton of guys… walked a lot of guys…, got behind in nearly every count at bat. I was there. I am hopeful it’s just part of his TJ journey and with time he gets stronger, more confident and becomes the arm he wants to be and we all hope for him.
|
|
|
|
Post by ricke71 on Jul 10, 2021 12:05:30 GMT -8
1st day of the MLB Draft (tomorrow - Sunday) will almost certainly have no ramifications for Beavs (only top 36 picks will be made).
Day 2 (Rounds 2-10) takes it down to pick #312. With Abel and (incoming) Kmatz estimated being in the #130 pick - #140 pick, that's where it gets interesting. Slot value in that neighborhood (pick #135 or so) is about 400K bonus. Slot value at end of 10th round is $142K.
Day 3: Rounds 11-20, bonuses can be up to $125K (though a team can exceed that, but it counts against their pool).
End of Round 20 = End of Draft.
Undrafted: 20K bonus
|
|
|
|
Post by mbabeav on Jul 10, 2021 12:18:35 GMT -8
1st day of the MLB Draft (tomorrow - Sunday) will almost certainly have no ramifications for Beavs (only top 36 picks will be made). Day 2 (Rounds 2-10) takes it down to pick #312. With Abel and (incoming) Kmatz estimated being in the #130 pick - #140 pick, that's where it gets interesting. Slot value in that neighborhood (pick #135 or so) is about 400K bonus. Slot value at end of 10th round is $142K. Day 3: Rounds 11-20, bonuses can be up to $125K (though a team can exceed that, but it counts against their pool). End of Round 20 = End of Draft. Undrafted: 20K bonus Lotta free agents that are going to be seriously thinking college will be worth a lot more than taking a chance on 20G and the focus of coaches going to be even more on the top 20 picked, IMO. Also, getting drafted after the 6-7th round starts to make signing bonuses vs. college a lot more competitive situation. It will be the kids with no grades or desire for school that will sign - deep draft classes like ours sound really promising right now. |
|
|
|
Post by beaver56 on Jul 10, 2021 12:35:00 GMT -8
Included in all of the signing bonuses for these kids is an agreement that the drafting team will pay for the remainder of their schooling if/when they do decide to return for their degree. That helps with the allure of signing the pro deal since school will always be there and be an option. The chance to fulfill their dreams of signing a pro contract will not always be there
|
|
|
|
Post by mbabeav on Jul 10, 2021 16:15:47 GMT -8
Included in all of the signing bonuses for these kids is an agreement that the drafting team will pay for the remainder of their schooling if/when they do decide to return for their degree. That helps with the allure of signing the pro deal since school will always be there and be an option. The chance to fulfill their dreams of signing a pro contract will not always be there That may be for College Juniors opting for the draft, but I haven't seen anywhere where a high school kid is guaranteed a full ride to uni if their pro career comes up short - so that is probably not going to be a factor for a lot of 18 year olds. |
|
|
|
Post by beaver56 on Jul 10, 2021 16:51:58 GMT -8
Sorry I wasn't real clear and left out that detail but it was what I meant hence the return to school part of the comment
|
|
|
|
Post by zeroposter on Jul 10, 2021 17:49:09 GMT -8
Confused. High school seniors can definitely negotiate future college money in their initial contract, and they can definitely negotiate with their minor league team or the MLB drafting club on the MLB scholarship program. Is that the discussion point?
|
|
|
|
Post by chinmusic on Jul 10, 2021 17:54:47 GMT -8
Housekeeping - a couple of thoughts from the Peanut Gallery.
Andrew Walling was consistently "gunned" at 89-90 mph, with some 91 mph touches while at pitching for OSU. That came from another OSU pitcher. During the summer prior to his Senior year at R.A. Long in Longview, he pitched well on the tournament circuit and in the Area Code Games, and Perfect Game had him touching 90.
He spent one year at Eastern Oklahoma State, a two-year Community College and suddenly he's bumping 98 mph? A gain in velo like that is almost unheard of. Kyle Boddy, the pitching wizard that founded DRIVELINE BASEBALL in Seattle, has noted a 3-4 mph gain in velo in one year by a college or professional pitcher, is "fantastic" - so an 8 mile gain would be mind blowing. Boddy is the lead instructor for the Cincinnati Reds staff and consults with many MLB pitchers. Two of his disciples BTW, are Nate Yeskie and Rich Dorman. Need more velo? Head for Driveline. You never say never, but I would need to put a gun on that to believe it.
On free agent contracts: A hypothetical - Oregon State is recruiting a star pitcher in Sacramento. He is throwing in the 94 mph range, but is still refining his game and is a classic "draft and follow" candidate for the scouts. He is offered by the Beavs and commits to OSU. It isn't likely he'll be drafted but he would certainly attract teams looking to sign free agent arms from the HS ranks. The Braves offer him $20k to sign. His OSU scholarship is worth the approximate out-of-state Tuition cost of $30k. If he attends OSU, he will be a front line pitcher for 3 years until he is draft elgible again. That's $90k in Tuition to play for the Beavers, then on to pro ball at age 21.
Does he sign a pro contract?
|
|
|
|
Post by beavermd on Jul 10, 2021 18:03:04 GMT -8
Housekeeping - a couple of thoughts from the Peanut Gallery. Andrew Walling was consistently "gunned" at 89-90 mph, with some 91 mph touches while at pitching for OSU. That came from another OSU pitcher. During the summer prior to his Senior year at R.A. Long in Longview, he pitched well on the tournament circuit and in the Area Code Games, and Perfect Game had him touching 90. He spent one year at Eastern Oklahoma State, a two-year Community College and suddenly he's bumping 98 mph? A gain in velo like that is almost unheard of. Kyle Boddy, the pitching wizard that founded DRIVELINE BASEBALL in Seattle, has noted a 3-4 mph gain in velo in one year by a college or professional pitcher, is "fantastic" - so an 8 mile gain would be mind blowing. Boddy is the lead instructor for the Cincinnati Reds staff and consults with many MLB pitchers. Two of his disciples BTW, are Nate Yeskie and Rich Dorman. Need more velo? Head for Driveline. You never say never, but I would need to put a gun on that to believe it. On free agent contracts: A hypothetical - Oregon State is recruiting a star pitcher in Sacramento. He is throwing in the 94 mph range, but is still refining his game and is a classic "draft and follow" candidate for the scouts. He is offered by the Beavs and commits to OSU. It isn't likely he'll be drafted but he would certainly attract teams looking to sign free agent arms from the HS ranks. The Braves offer him $20k to sign. His OSU scholarship is worth the approximate out-of-state Tuition cost of $30k. If he attends OSU, he will be a front line pitcher for 3 years until he is draft elgible again. That's $90k in Tuition to play for the Beavers, then on to pro ball at age 21. Does he sign a pro contract? Yea, they’re most likely inflating Walling’s velo. Maybe he’s run one or two up there at 97, but my guess is he sitting low to mid 90s which would check out with the expected velo bump of a kid a couple years older. In terms of your hypothetical, the payoff for the kid to come to OSU would be to develop into a top 10 round prospect. Do that and you’re leaving school with a 6 figure signing bonus after your junior year. Of course you bring the risk of injury or not developing. But at least you get a the college experience which many people will tell you is priceless. |
|
