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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 14:15:21 GMT -8
I think the pitching has been fantastic. WHIP is 4th in the country, behind only Vandy for bigger programs. We hit some guys, yeah, we're pitching inside a lot more. I'm okay with that. Whip - last 10 years: 2021 - 1.12 2020 - 1.27 2019 - 1.20 2018 - 1.18 2017 - 0.97 2016 - 1.23 2015 - 1.16 2014 - 1.13 2013 - 1.07 2012 - 1.35 3rd best in the last 10 years? (2017 being a perfect storm of incredible pitching and 2013 having a bunch of future MLB guys on it.) Anybody saying struggles are on the pitching staff is wrong. Look who Vandy faces week in, week out, and look who we've faced so far this season. The rest of the season will tell us one way or the other how good our staff is. Oregon State has played a more challenging non-conference slate than Vanderbilt. I mean, the Dores' last six non-conference opponents was a veritable murderers' row: Belmont, Lipscomb, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee-Martin, Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay. And each of those six was in Nashville. Oregon State last six non-conference opponents were Oregon, Santa Clara, Portland (home and away), Gonzaga, @ UC Irvine and @ Loyola-Marymount. In conference play, Vanderbilt does not play Arkansas, which is the best team in the SEC this year. Three of Vanderbilt's games against the ultra-super-difficult SEC were against Missouri. Missouri lost to Arizona in Frisco and lost three-of-four against Grand Canyon. The Tigers are currently 12th in the SEC. Another three games were against 11th-place LSU. Vanderbilt lost two-of-three at home to seventh-place Georgia. Meh. The SEC is overrated, as always. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 14:23:18 GMT -8
Your second point is that, if you add HBP into WHIP, it would not look so good, and you would be correct. The current WHIP standings among Big Four Conferences is: 1. Vanderbilt 1.03
2. Oregon State 1.12
3. Texas 1.18
4. Mississippi State 1.18
5. UCLA 1.20
If you add in HBP into WHIP, Oregon State falls from second on this list behind Mississippi State and Texas to fourth, still ahead of UCLA. The HBPs are a problem but not a problem that take the pitching staff to elite to mediocre or bad. The pitching staff has been phenomenal by and large.
The Pac-12 is currently 144-73 against non-conference opponents, a .664 winning percentage. The only time that the Pac-12 has had a higher non-conference winning percentage in the last 10 years was in 2012 (Arizona won the National Championship, UCLA finished fifth, Oregon hosted a Super Regional, Stanford went to the Tallahassee Super Regional and Oregon State played in the Baton Rouge Regional Championship Game) and 2015 (UCLA was #1 overall seed, but Oregon State got jobbed and had to play in Dallas). The Pac-12 is very good this year compared to years previous with a couple of exceptions.
Your first point is your best point. The quality of opponent is higher over the final month on average than in the previous 2 1/2 months. That is factual. Oregon State's pitching has been good so far. Let's hope that the Beavers pitch even better over the next month.I'm not going to look it up because that's what you're here for, but it seems in past years that Pac-12 teams have schedule more Power 5 non-conference opponents (yes, I know we played KSU one game). The pandemic seems to have reduced the number of these series against eastern schools. I just don't see any Pac 12 teams that I feel have a good chance to make it to Omaha. We make sneak one in, but I'm not counting on it. Arizona has defeated Oklahoma and Missouri in what amounts to a non-conference road games. As of right now, Arizona looks like a Super Regional host and should make it to Omaha. Oregon looks like the second-best bet. Oregon State looks like the third-best bet. And I will tend to agree that that bet does not look great at this juncture. Still, I am optimistic that Mitchy Slick can right the ship. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 29, 2021 14:57:52 GMT -8
Right the ship?
We are tied for first place in the Pac-12. We have more wins than any Pac-12 team. We have won 6 of our last 8. We are 14-4 in road/neutral games. I say Mitch has done an outstanding job so far.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 15:35:52 GMT -8
Maybe I am missing something but comparing this team to the 2018 team is laughable. Take any stat you want but the 2018 team would run the 2021 team off the field. Casey or no Casey Canham or no Canham. 2018 Oregon State was light years better at the end of 2018 than 2021 Oregon State is currently. Still, at this time in 2018, Oregon State was 10-5 in the Pac-12 and entering a three-game set against an Arizona State team that finished seventh in the Pac-12 in Corvallis. Oregon State one game one on two eighth inning errors that allowed four unearned runs to score in a 6-2 win. Brandon Eisert and Kevin Abel (who had not started in a month) followed it up by giving up four runs in two innings to turn a 5-4 seventh inning lead into an 8-5 loss. Grant Gambrell started game three and blew a 4-1 lead, leading to a 4-4 ball game. Dylan Pearce came on but gave up a sixth inning RBI double. Larnach opened the seventh with a double and Gretler singled Larnach home. Anderson singled to left to drive Gretler to third. With one out, Troy Claunch hit a sacrifice fly to right to take a 6-5 lead, which held up thanks to Pearce and Mully. And those are your College World Series Champions. Oregon State improved to 12-6 on the season with the narrow series win against a bad Arizona State team. And that was the Beavers' last win to end a weekend series until 12-0 win over LSU in the Corvallis Regional. Fortunately, Oregon State was perfect 8-0 in games 1 and 2 into the College World Series. If Oregon State goes 10-4-1 or better over the final 15, this Beaver team is better than 2018 Oregon State. We all remember Oregon State at the end of 2018. But we tend to forget how mediocre a lot of 2018 was. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 15:43:54 GMT -8
No one on earth considers a four-run game a "close" game. 14-10 in games decided by three runs or fewer. In 2018, to this point, Oregon State was 17-5. In 2017, to this point, Oregon State was 20-2. |
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Post by irimi on Apr 29, 2021 16:07:34 GMT -8
Maybe I am missing something but comparing this team to the 2018 team is laughable. Take any stat you want but the 2018 team would run the 2021 team off the field. Casey or no Casey Canham or no Canham. 2018 Oregon State was light years better at the end of 2018 than 2021 Oregon State is currently. Still, at this time in 2018, Oregon State was 10-5 in the Pac-12 and entering a three-game set against an Arizona State team that finished seventh in the Pac-12 in Corvallis. Oregon State one game one on two eighth inning errors that allowed four unearned runs to score in a 6-2 win. Brandon Eisert and Kevin Abel (who had not started in a month) followed it up by giving up four runs in two innings to turn a 5-4 seventh inning lead into an 8-5 loss. Grant Gambrell started game three and blew a 4-1 lead, leading to a 4-4 ball game. Dylan Pearce came on but gave up a sixth inning RBI double. Larnach opened the seventh with a double and Gretler singled Larnach home. Anderson singled to left to drive Gretler to third. With one out, Troy Claunch hit a sacrifice fly to right to take a 6-5 lead, which held up thanks to Pearce and Mully. And those are your College World Series Champions. Oregon State improved to 12-6 on the season with the narrow series win against a bad Arizona State team. And that was the Beavers' last win to end a weekend series until 12-0 win over LSU in the Corvallis Regional. Fortunately, Oregon State was perfect 8-0 in games 1 and 2 into the College World Series. If Oregon State goes 10-4-1 or better over the final 15, this Beaver team is better than 2018 Oregon State. We all remember Oregon State at the end of 2018. But we tend to forget how mediocre a lot of 2018 was. Mediocre? You’ve got to be kidding. With the notable exception of KJ Harrison, the 2018 team was the same team that went 55-6 in 2017. They knew how to win. They knew how to depend on each other. They were a team. I don’t really like these comparisons to past teams. They are kind of irrelevant because the past is the past and now is now. 2018 didn’t have to deal with Covid, (assumed) stringent travel rules, and a mostly empty Goss stadium. I like our team. We’ve got some good players but few look like they own their position on the field. Dukart and AA look great. Casey isn’t great in left, but he’s pretty reliable. The centerfield shuffle is strange, since Preston is usually a strong fielder. And right field is odd. I’d really like to see MC settle more on a standard lineup. Give the guys a chance to gel more. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 16:27:00 GMT -8
How about this? We are 40 games in. 40 games into the 2018 season, Oregon State had allowed 23 more runs than in 2021. 40 games into the 2017 season, Oregon State had scored 40 fewer runs than in 2021. Oregon State has scored 28 more runs in 2021 than the 2013 team had up to this point and had a nine-run better run differential. Offensively, this team is better than the team in 2017 up to this point. Defensively/pitching-wise, this team is better than the team in 2018 up to this point. The team seems like it is better, mostly offensively, than in 2013. Looking at a lot of numbers, it looks to me like the players are there. IMHO, the coaching is not. Looking at close games, Oregon State is 15-11 in games decided by four runs or fewer. That is good. Don't get me wrong. But Casey generally put up absurd numbers in close games. At this point in 2017, for example, Casey was 26-2 in games decided by four runs or fewer. This should come as no shocking surprise, but Mitchy Slick is not Casey. To me, the pieces are there. (At least with a healthy Melton, the pieces are there.) Mitchy Slick just cannot seem to consistently put them together. (A lot of his moves seem very inconsistent and puzzling.) Oregon State's RPI is currently 27. Mitchy Slick has six games in 11 days to move up at least two spots (probably need closer to seven spots but at least two), in order to have a chance of hosting a regional. I will have better numbers to look at tomorrow, but, my off-the-cuff guess is that Oregon State should easily be a host, if the Beavers can go at least 5-1 or 6-0 against the Bruins and Trojans. In a normal year, Oregon State should be a host at 4-2. We will see, how normal 2021 is. Short of there, it is certainly possible, but I doubt it. Other games may influence the Beavers needs. A BYU sweep this weekend, for example, should move Oregon State up two spots without the Beavers even playing a single game. Go Beavs! You can cherry pick all the stats you want, but talent wise, this team is much closer to the 2019 team than the 2017 or 2018 teams. I find it interesting that you think that winning close games is all on the coaches. Don’t you think the talent, mental toughness and fight of the players might have something to do with winning close games? 2019 was a potentially great season. Very much ruined by injuries and a terrible Regional draw. And bad coaching down the stretch. It is not all on coaches, but great coaches tend to win close games. The last time that Pat Casey went 14-10 or worse in games decided by three runs or fewer? I am coming up with 2009. Another 28-12 start. Oregon State started off 8-4 against the original Pac-10 teams, same as this year. The Beavers then finished 7-8 in a bad Pac-10 to finish third in the Pac-10. Oregon State was given a third seed in the Fort Worth Regional. The Beavers beat A&M twice, but lost to Texas Christian in the Fort Worth Championship Game after blowing a 4-0 lead and losing in the bottom in the ninth after Jason Coats (12th Round, #365) singled home Bryan Holaday (6th Round, #193) to win 5-4. Holaday is currently in the minors after having played in the majors each of the past nine years. Coats tore his ACL in the final game of the 2012 season. Coats worked his way back to be a starter for the White Sox in 2016 before tearing his UCL for the Rays in the 2017 offseason. Pat Casey had a better record in games decided by three runs or fewer in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Like I said, great coaches tend to win close games. Casey was a great coach. Canham currently is not on the level but few are. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 16:40:07 GMT -8
2018 Oregon State was light years better at the end of 2018 than 2021 Oregon State is currently. Still, at this time in 2018, Oregon State was 10-5 in the Pac-12 and entering a three-game set against an Arizona State team that finished seventh in the Pac-12 in Corvallis. Oregon State one game one on two eighth inning errors that allowed four unearned runs to score in a 6-2 win. Brandon Eisert and Kevin Abel (who had not started in a month) followed it up by giving up four runs in two innings to turn a 5-4 seventh inning lead into an 8-5 loss. Grant Gambrell started game three and blew a 4-1 lead, leading to a 4-4 ball game. Dylan Pearce came on but gave up a sixth inning RBI double. Larnach opened the seventh with a double and Gretler singled Larnach home. Anderson singled to left to drive Gretler to third. With one out, Troy Claunch hit a sacrifice fly to right to take a 6-5 lead, which held up thanks to Pearce and Mully. And those are your College World Series Champions. Oregon State improved to 12-6 on the season with the narrow series win against a bad Arizona State team. And that was the Beavers' last win to end a weekend series until 12-0 win over LSU in the Corvallis Regional. Fortunately, Oregon State was perfect 8-0 in games 1 and 2 into the College World Series. If Oregon State goes 10-4-1 or better over the final 15, this Beaver team is better than 2018 Oregon State. We all remember Oregon State at the end of 2018. But we tend to forget how mediocre a lot of 2018 was. Mediocre? You’ve got to be kidding. With the notable exception of KJ Harrison, the 2018 team was the same team that went 55-6 in 2017. They knew how to win. They knew how to depend on each other. They were a team. I don’t really like these comparisons to past teams. They are kind of irrelevant because the past is the past and now is now. 2018 didn’t have to deal with Covid, (assumed) stringent travel rules, and a mostly empty Goss stadium. I like our team. We’ve got some good players but few look like they own their position on the field. Dukart and AA look great. Casey isn’t great in left, but he’s pretty reliable. The centerfield shuffle is strange, since Preston is usually a strong fielder. And right field is odd. I’d really like to see MC settle more on a standard lineup. Give the guys a chance to gel more. 2018 had all of the pieces, but it took until the Corvallis Regional to really put them all together the right way. And then Kwan got hurt and then Madrigal got hurt. And the 2018 Beavers were still good enough at that point that they still won the National Championship. 2007 did not really put it all together until the Charlottesville Regional. 2006 did not really put it together until mid-May. My point is that there is still time for MC to put all of the pieces together. 2018 didn't have to deal with COVID, but they had to deal with a huge target on their backs the whole season. Each team has its own challenges to overcome. Wayne Tinkle did what he did in 2021 of all years. MC can do the same or better in 2021, as well. Or things could crater. Half the fun is the ride. I agree 100% with the final paragraph. I was hoping that MC would be an improvement upon PB, but 40 games into MC's first season, I am beginning to wonder, if I put my money on the wrong horse. 15 games left. MC really needs to put the pieces together, because, if Melton comes back healthy, I still believe that they are all there. |
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GM 2 v LMU
Apr 29, 2021 17:19:36 GMT -8
via mobile
Post by Judge Smails on Apr 29, 2021 17:19:36 GMT -8
You can cherry pick all the stats you want, but talent wise, this team is much closer to the 2019 team than the 2017 or 2018 teams. I find it interesting that you think that winning close games is all on the coaches. Don’t you think the talent, mental toughness and fight of the players might have something to do with winning close games? 2019 was a potentially great season. Very much ruined by injuries and a terrible Regional draw. And bad coaching down the stretch. It is not all on coaches, but great coaches tend to win close games. The last time that Pat Casey went 14-10 or worse in games decided by three runs or fewer? I am coming up with 2009. Another 28-12 start. Oregon State started off 8-4 against the original Pac-10 teams, same as this year. The Beavers then finished 7-8 in a bad Pac-10 to finish third in the Pac-10. Oregon State was given a third seed in the Fort Worth Regional. The Beavers beat A&M twice, but lost to Texas Christian in the Fort Worth Championship Game after blowing a 4-0 lead and losing in the bottom in the ninth after Jason Coats (12th Round, #365) singled home Bryan Holaday (6th Round, #193) to win 5-4. Holaday is currently in the minors after having played in the majors each of the past nine years. Coats tore his ACL in the final game of the 2012 season. Coats worked his way back to be a starter for the White Sox in 2016 before tearing his UCL for the Rays in the 2017 offseason. Pat Casey had a better record in games decided by three runs or fewer in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Like I said, great coaches tend to win close games. Casey was a great coach. Canham currently is not on the level but few are. Great coaches win with great players. We only had one great player in 2019. Casey wouldn’t have fared better with that roster and the injuries that year. At best, Casey could have gotten that team to a super, but no way he gets that team to Omaha. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 17:26:44 GMT -8
2019 was a potentially great season. Very much ruined by injuries and a terrible Regional draw. And bad coaching down the stretch. It is not all on coaches, but great coaches tend to win close games. The last time that Pat Casey went 14-10 or worse in games decided by three runs or fewer? I am coming up with 2009. Another 28-12 start. Oregon State started off 8-4 against the original Pac-10 teams, same as this year. The Beavers then finished 7-8 in a bad Pac-10 to finish third in the Pac-10. Oregon State was given a third seed in the Fort Worth Regional. The Beavers beat A&M twice, but lost to Texas Christian in the Fort Worth Championship Game after blowing a 4-0 lead and losing in the bottom in the ninth after Jason Coats (12th Round, #365) singled home Bryan Holaday (6th Round, #193) to win 5-4. Holaday is currently in the minors after having played in the majors each of the past nine years. Coats tore his ACL in the final game of the 2012 season. Coats worked his way back to be a starter for the White Sox in 2016 before tearing his UCL for the Rays in the 2017 offseason. Pat Casey had a better record in games decided by three runs or fewer in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Like I said, great coaches tend to win close games. Casey was a great coach. Canham currently is not on the level but few are. Great coaches win with great players. We only had one great player in 2019. Casey wouldn’t have fared better with that roster and the injuries that year. At best, Casey could have gotten that team to a super, but no way he gets that team to Omaha. Boo. We had several great players in 2019, one once-in-a-lifetime player, who was mis-used in a terrible 1890s backwards thinking kind of way. We had a bunch of mis- and under-used role players. With Rutschman battling whatever he had (mono?) in that Regional, it would have been hard to beat Michigan in 2019, though, regardless of whether Casey was coaching or not. That was a criminally tough draw, made worse by the scheduling, which had Oregon State play the night game. 2019 Oregon State was better than 2007 Oregon State in the regular season, and Casey won the whole thing. Casey was magic. Somehow, some way, Casey would have gotten it done. I stopped doubting Casey well before the 2019 season. |
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Post by zeroposter on Apr 29, 2021 17:52:36 GMT -8
Not sure why you always seem to try to go out of your way to bash our pitching staff? We currently sit 5th in the country in ERA. 5th I'd say is pretty damn good. The vaunted Vanderbilt staff is 7th. The pessimist-optimist outlook for me. I worry about the Beavers getting into a regional, and I am already amped up for the UCLA series. On the other hand, I would not bet against the Beavers in a short series like the regional or super regionals. Even though there has been a rough patch, I will take an Abel-Hjerpe-Pfennigs plus relievers against anybody. Jmho. |
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GM 2 v LMU
Apr 29, 2021 18:01:09 GMT -8
via mobile
Post by Judge Smails on Apr 29, 2021 18:01:09 GMT -8
Great coaches win with great players. We only had one great player in 2019. Casey wouldn’t have fared better with that roster and the injuries that year. At best, Casey could have gotten that team to a super, but no way he gets that team to Omaha. Boo. We had several great players in 2019, one once-in-a-lifetime player, who was mis-used in a terrible 1890s backwards thinking kind of way. We had a bunch of mis- and under-used role players. With Rutschman battling whatever he had (mono?) in that Regional, it would have been hard to beat Michigan in 2019, though, regardless of whether Casey was coaching or not. That was a criminally tough draw, made worse by the scheduling, which had Oregon State play the night game. 2019 Oregon State was better than 2007 Oregon State in the regular season, and Casey won the whole thing. Casey was magic. Somehow, some way, Casey would have gotten it done. I stopped doubting Casey well before the 2019 season. How was Adley mis-used? And no way that roster was better than than the 2007 roster. PC is a great coach, but no way that team was Omaha bound. We lost 5 top draft picks and another pitcher that would have been one. We were left with one good hitter, 2 decent hitters and that was it. |
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GM 2 v LMU
Apr 29, 2021 18:04:12 GMT -8
via mobile
Post by Judge Smails on Apr 29, 2021 18:04:12 GMT -8
Boo. We had several great players in 2019, one once-in-a-lifetime player, who was mis-used in a terrible 1890s backwards thinking kind of way. We had a bunch of mis- and under-used role players. With Rutschman battling whatever he had (mono?) in that Regional, it would have been hard to beat Michigan in 2019, though, regardless of whether Casey was coaching or not. That was a criminally tough draw, made worse by the scheduling, which had Oregon State play the night game. 2019 Oregon State was better than 2007 Oregon State in the regular season, and Casey won the whole thing. Casey was magic. Somehow, some way, Casey would have gotten it done. I stopped doubting Casey well before the 2019 season. How was Adley mis-used? And no way that roster was better than than the 2007 roster. PC is a great coach, but no way that team was Omaha bound. We lost 5 top draft picks and another pitcher that would have been one. We were left with one good hitter, 2 decent hitters and that was it. If Casey was “magic” we would have won the whole thing in 2017, despite an umpire with a wide strike zone |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 29, 2021 18:24:19 GMT -8
How was Adley mis-used? And no way that roster was better than than the 2007 roster. PC is a great coach, but no way that team was Omaha bound. We lost 5 top draft picks and another pitcher that would have been one. We were left with one good hitter, 2 decent hitters and that was it. If Casey was “magic” we would have won the whole thing in 2017, despite an umpire with a wide strike zone The missed call on Kwan's would-be triple the day before hurt us far more than the wide strike zone. If that ball is correctly called fair, two runs score, Kwan is on third with one out and LSU has to go to their bullpen and use the guy who started the following day. There was absolutely no excuse for that call being missed. The ball hit on the inside half of the foul stripe and left a dent, FFS. Never call a 50-50 ball foul if replay is available. Let the play play out, and if it's foul everyone simply returns to their respectable bases. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 29, 2021 19:05:33 GMT -8
Great coaches win with great players. We only had one great player in 2019. Casey wouldn’t have fared better with that roster and the injuries that year. At best, Casey could have gotten that team to a super, but no way he gets that team to Omaha. Boo. We had several great players in 2019, one once-in-a-lifetime player, who was mis-used in a terrible 1890s backwards thinking kind of way. We had a bunch of mis- and under-used role players. With Rutschman battling whatever he had (mono?) in that Regional, it would have been hard to beat Michigan in 2019, though, regardless of whether Casey was coaching or not. That was a criminally tough draw, made worse by the scheduling, which had Oregon State play the night game. 2019 Oregon State was better than 2007 Oregon State in the regular season, and Casey won the whole thing. Casey was magic. Somehow, some way, Casey would have gotten it done. I stopped doubting Casey well before the 2019 season. Adley had no one in the lineup to protect him |
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