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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 29, 2021 5:12:46 GMT -8
Not a good ball club, right now. Do we have “the pieces” to be? How about this? We are 40 games in. 40 games into the 2018 season, Oregon State had allowed 23 more runs than in 2021. 40 games into the 2017 season, Oregon State had scored 40 fewer runs than in 2021. Oregon State has scored 28 more runs in 2021 than the 2013 team had up to this point and had a nine-run better run differential. Offensively, this team is better than the team in 2017 up to this point. Defensively/pitching-wise, this team is better than the team in 2018 up to this point. The team seems like it is better, mostly offensively, than in 2013. Looking at a lot of numbers, it looks to me like the players are there. IMHO, the coaching is not. Looking at close games, Oregon State is 15-11 in games decided by four runs or fewer. That is good. Don't get me wrong. But Casey generally put up absurd numbers in close games. At this point in 2017, for example, Casey was 26-2 in games decided by four runs or fewer. This should come as no shocking surprise, but Mitchy Slick is not Casey. To me, the pieces are there. (At least with a healthy Melton, the pieces are there.) Mitchy Slick just cannot seem to consistently put them together. (A lot of his moves seem very inconsistent and puzzling.) Oregon State's RPI is currently 27. Mitchy Slick has six games in 11 days to move up at least two spots (probably need closer to seven spots but at least two), in order to have a chance of hosting a regional. I will have better numbers to look at tomorrow, but, my off-the-cuff guess is that Oregon State should easily be a host, if the Beavers can go at least 5-1 or 6-0 against the Bruins and Trojans. In a normal year, Oregon State should be a host at 4-2. We will see, how normal 2021 is. Short of there, it is certainly possible, but I doubt it. Other games may influence the Beavers needs. A BYU sweep this weekend, for example, should move Oregon State up two spots without the Beavers even playing a single game. Go Beavs! Gotta be able to win against top competition. This team hasn't really done that. The next few weeks will sort it all out though |
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Post by irimi on Apr 29, 2021 6:20:05 GMT -8
Not a good ball club, right now. Do we have “the pieces” to be? How about this? We are 40 games in. 40 games into the 2018 season, Oregon State had allowed 23 more runs than in 2021. 40 games into the 2017 season, Oregon State had scored 40 fewer runs than in 2021. Oregon State has scored 28 more runs in 2021 than the 2013 team had up to this point and had a nine-run better run differential. Offensively, this team is better than the team in 2017 up to this point. Defensively/pitching-wise, this team is better than the team in 2018 up to this point. The team seems like it is better, mostly offensively, than in 2013. Looking at a lot of numbers, it looks to me like the players are there. IMHO, the coaching is not. Looking at close games, Oregon State is 15-11 in games decided by four runs or fewer. That is good. Don't get me wrong. But Casey generally put up absurd numbers in close games. At this point in 2017, for example, Casey was 26-2 in games decided by four runs or fewer.This should come as no shocking surprise, but Mitchy Slick is not Casey. To me, the pieces are there. (At least with a healthy Melton, the pieces are there.) Mitchy Slick just cannot seem to consistently put them together. (A lot of his moves seem very inconsistent and puzzling.) Oregon State's RPI is currently 27. Mitchy Slick has six games in 11 days to move up at least two spots (probably need closer to seven spots but at least two), in order to have a chance of hosting a regional. I will have better numbers to look at tomorrow, but, my off-the-cuff guess is that Oregon State should easily be a host, if the Beavers can go at least 5-1 or 6-0 against the Bruins and Trojans. In a normal year, Oregon State should be a host at 4-2. We will see, how normal 2021 is. Short of there, it is certainly possible, but I doubt it. Other games may influence the Beavers needs. A BYU sweep this weekend, for example, should move Oregon State up two spots without the Beavers even playing a single game. Go Beavs! Nearly every loss this season has been by four runs or fewer. IIRC, there’s only been one that was by a greater margin. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 29, 2021 6:25:37 GMT -8
No one on earth considers a four-run game a "close" game.
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Post by speakthetruth on Apr 29, 2021 6:28:23 GMT -8
Maybe I am missing something but comparing this team to the 2018 team is laughable. Take any stat you want but the 2018 team would run the 2021 team off the field. Casey or no Casey canham or no Canham.
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Post by lebaneaver on Apr 29, 2021 9:03:14 GMT -8
Not a good ball club, right now. Do we have “the pieces” to be? I love posts like this. You clearly haven’t followed Beaver baseball midweek games for very long. Only since the ‘90s |
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 29, 2021 9:34:26 GMT -8
How about this? We are 40 games in. 40 games into the 2018 season, Oregon State had allowed 23 more runs than in 2021. 40 games into the 2017 season, Oregon State had scored 40 fewer runs than in 2021. Oregon State has scored 28 more runs in 2021 than the 2013 team had up to this point and had a nine-run better run differential. Offensively, this team is better than the team in 2017 up to this point. Defensively/pitching-wise, this team is better than the team in 2018 up to this point. The team seems like it is better, mostly offensively, than in 2013. Looking at a lot of numbers, it looks to me like the players are there. IMHO, the coaching is not. Looking at close games, Oregon State is 15-11 in games decided by four runs or fewer. That is good. Don't get me wrong. But Casey generally put up absurd numbers in close games. At this point in 2017, for example, Casey was 26-2 in games decided by four runs or fewer. This should come as no shocking surprise, but Mitchy Slick is not Casey. To me, the pieces are there. (At least with a healthy Melton, the pieces are there.) Mitchy Slick just cannot seem to consistently put them together. (A lot of his moves seem very inconsistent and puzzling.) Oregon State's RPI is currently 27. Mitchy Slick has six games in 11 days to move up at least two spots (probably need closer to seven spots but at least two), in order to have a chance of hosting a regional. I will have better numbers to look at tomorrow, but, my off-the-cuff guess is that Oregon State should easily be a host, if the Beavers can go at least 5-1 or 6-0 against the Bruins and Trojans. In a normal year, Oregon State should be a host at 4-2. We will see, how normal 2021 is. Short of there, it is certainly possible, but I doubt it. Other games may influence the Beavers needs. A BYU sweep this weekend, for example, should move Oregon State up two spots without the Beavers even playing a single game. Go Beavs! You can cherry pick all the stats you want, but talent wise, this team is much closer to the 2019 team than the 2017 or 2018 teams. I find it interesting that you think that winning close games is all on the coaches. Don’t you think the talent, mental toughness and fight of the players might have something to do with winning close games? This team's pitching is not close to what we've had over the past decade, nor is our defensive catching ability. We have a great ERA, but as I will continue to say, the excessive walks/hbp/hits and runs given up with two strikes/two outs - as well as passed balls and failure to block the pitches our staff used to bury for third strikes in several games is the difference between us being 28-12, and 35-7 (or better). Oh that, and just being able to throw to first accurately on a third strike that hits the turf would be nice. There seems to be some mechanical issues, but its mostly a mental fine tuning that we need. The talent is there, the focus isn't. But I believe we can dial it in - we have to dial it in, and then no one is going to want to face us come playoffs. Our weekenders pound the zone like the guys did Tuesday and Wednesday, and we could win our last 5 conference series. |
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 29, 2021 10:12:54 GMT -8
Case in point - almost 18% of the runs against us are unearned, and probably another 25%+ are batters who are walked/hbp.
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Post by beaver56 on Apr 29, 2021 10:32:34 GMT -8
Not sure why you always seem to try to go out of your way to bash our pitching staff? We currently sit 5th in the country in ERA. 5th I'd say is pretty damn good. The vaunted Vanderbilt staff is 7th.
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cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598 
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Post by cake on Apr 29, 2021 12:14:42 GMT -8
No one on earth considers a four-run game a "close" game. True, but most have been by 3 or fewer. Guaranteed save situations. 1 run, 4 times 2 runs, 2 times 3 runs, 4 times 4 runs, 1 time 7 runs, 1 time |
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cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598
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Post by cake on Apr 29, 2021 12:28:33 GMT -8
Not sure why you always seem to try to go out of your way to bash our pitching staff? We currently sit 5th in the country in ERA. 5th I'd say is pretty damn good. The vaunted Vanderbilt staff is 7th. I think the pitching has been fantastic. WHIP is 4th in the country, behind only Vandy for bigger programs. We hit some guys, yeah, we're pitching inside a lot more. I'm okay with that. Whip - last 10 years: 2021 - 1.12 2020 - 1.27 2019 - 1.20 2018 - 1.18 2017 - 0.97 2016 - 1.23 2015 - 1.16 2014 - 1.13 2013 - 1.07 2012 - 1.35 3rd best in the last 10 years? (2017 being a perfect storm of incredible pitching and 2013 having a bunch of future MLB guys on it.) Anybody saying struggles are on the pitching staff is wrong. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Apr 29, 2021 12:47:01 GMT -8
Not sure why you always seem to try to go out of your way to bash our pitching staff? We currently sit 5th in the country in ERA. 5th I'd say is pretty damn good. The vaunted Vanderbilt staff is 7th. I think the pitching has been fantastic. WHIP is 4th in the country, behind only Vandy for bigger programs. We hit some guys, yeah, we're pitching inside a lot more. I'm okay with that. Whip - last 10 years: 2021 - 1.12 2020 - 1.27 2019 - 1.20 2018 - 1.18 2017 - 0.97 2016 - 1.23 2015 - 1.16 2014 - 1.13 2013 - 1.07 2012 - 1.35 3rd best in the last 10 years? (2017 being a perfect storm of incredible pitching and 2013 having a bunch of future MLB guys on it.) Anybody saying struggles are on the pitching staff is wrong. It's not the end of 2021. We play a lot of tough teams coming up that could drive that number up. Also HBP is not included in WHIP. Add those in and it doesn't look as good. Also, it's hard to compare years against completely different competition. I think the Pac 12 as a whole as not as good this year as in many of those previous years. |
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Post by irimi on Apr 29, 2021 13:34:15 GMT -8
Not sure why you always seem to try to go out of your way to bash our pitching staff? We currently sit 5th in the country in ERA. 5th I'd say is pretty damn good. The vaunted Vanderbilt staff is 7th. I think it's easy to see both sides with this pitching staff. The walks and hit by pitch seem to come at inopportune times so they are memorable to fans. When we'd expect an ace staff to focus and get a good pitch, the pitch goes wild and hits the batter or gets by the catcher. It's the situation that gives it more weight in the fan's mind. On the other hand, we have a highly talented bullpen. We just fought a major battle against UCI, using many of our top pitchers. A great duel. So a midweek battle with Loyola should have been tough. But we still had pitchers to spare, and even some of the little used pitchers were quite good in their outings. It's the Jeckyll/Hyde of Beaver baseball. |
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GM 2 v LMU
Apr 29, 2021 13:45:04 GMT -8
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 29, 2021 13:45:04 GMT -8
Not sure why you always seem to try to go out of your way to bash our pitching staff? We currently sit 5th in the country in ERA. 5th I'd say is pretty damn good. The vaunted Vanderbilt staff is 7th. I think the pitching has been fantastic. WHIP is 4th in the country, behind only Vandy for bigger programs. We hit some guys, yeah, we're pitching inside a lot more. I'm okay with that. Whip - last 10 years: 2021 - 1.12 2020 - 1.27 2019 - 1.20 2018 - 1.18 2017 - 0.97 2016 - 1.23 2015 - 1.16 2014 - 1.13 2013 - 1.07 2012 - 1.35 3rd best in the last 10 years? (2017 being a perfect storm of incredible pitching and 2013 having a bunch of future MLB guys on it.) Anybody saying struggles are on the pitching staff is wrong. Look who Vandy faces week in, week out, and look who we've faced so far this season. The rest of the season will tell us one way or the other how good our staff is. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 29, 2021 13:51:13 GMT -8
I think the pitching has been fantastic. WHIP is 4th in the country, behind only Vandy for bigger programs. We hit some guys, yeah, we're pitching inside a lot more. I'm okay with that. Whip - last 10 years: 2021 - 1.12 2020 - 1.27 2019 - 1.20 2018 - 1.18 2017 - 0.97 2016 - 1.23 2015 - 1.16 2014 - 1.13 2013 - 1.07 2012 - 1.35 3rd best in the last 10 years? (2017 being a perfect storm of incredible pitching and 2013 having a bunch of future MLB guys on it.) Anybody saying struggles are on the pitching staff is wrong. It's not the end of 2021. We play a lot of tough teams coming up that could drive that number up. Also HBP is not included in WHIP. Add those in and it doesn't look as good. Also, it's hard to compare years against completely different competition. I think the Pac 12 as a whole as not as good this year as in many of those previous years. Your second point is that, if you add HBP into WHIP, it would not look so good, and you would be correct. The current WHIP standings among Big Four Conferences is: 1. Vanderbilt 1.03
2. Oregon State 1.12
3. Texas 1.18
4. Mississippi State 1.18
5. UCLA 1.20
If you add in HBP into WHIP, Oregon State falls from second on this list behind Mississippi State and Texas to fourth, still ahead of UCLA. The HBPs are a problem but not a problem that take the pitching staff to elite to mediocre or bad. The pitching staff has been phenomenal by and large.
The Pac-12 is currently 144-73 against non-conference opponents, a .664 winning percentage. The only time that the Pac-12 has had a higher non-conference winning percentage in the last 10 years was in 2012 (Arizona won the National Championship, UCLA finished fifth, Oregon hosted a Super Regional, Stanford went to the Tallahassee Super Regional and Oregon State played in the Baton Rouge Regional Championship Game) and 2015 (UCLA was #1 overall seed, but Oregon State got jobbed and had to play in Dallas). The Pac-12 is very good this year compared to years previous with a couple of exceptions.
Your first point is your best point. The quality of opponent is higher over the final month on average than in the previous 2 1/2 months. That is factual. Oregon State's pitching has been good so far. Let's hope that the Beavers pitch even better over the next month. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Apr 29, 2021 14:04:39 GMT -8
It's not the end of 2021. We play a lot of tough teams coming up that could drive that number up. Also HBP is not included in WHIP. Add those in and it doesn't look as good. Also, it's hard to compare years against completely different competition. I think the Pac 12 as a whole as not as good this year as in many of those previous years. Your second point is that, if you add HBP into WHIP, it would not look so good, and you would be correct. The current WHIP standings among Big Four Conferences is: 1. Vanderbilt 1.03
2. Oregon State 1.12
3. Texas 1.18
4. Mississippi State 1.18
5. UCLA 1.20
If you add in HBP into WHIP, Oregon State falls from second on this list behind Mississippi State and Texas to fourth, still ahead of UCLA. The HBPs are a problem but not a problem that take the pitching staff to elite to mediocre or bad. The pitching staff has been phenomenal by and large.
The Pac-12 is currently 144-73 against non-conference opponents, a .664 winning percentage. The only time that the Pac-12 has had a higher non-conference winning percentage in the last 10 years was in 2012 (Arizona won the National Championship, UCLA finished fifth, Oregon hosted a Super Regional, Stanford went to the Tallahassee Super Regional and Oregon State played in the Baton Rouge Regional Championship Game) and 2015 (UCLA was #1 overall seed, but Oregon State got jobbed and had to play in Dallas). The Pac-12 is very good this year compared to years previous with a couple of exceptions.
Your first point is your best point. The quality of opponent is higher over the final month on average than in the previous 2 1/2 months. That is factual. Oregon State's pitching has been good so far. Let's hope that the Beavers pitch even better over the next month.I'm not going to look it up because that's what you're here for, but it seems in past years that Pac-12 teams have schedule more Power 5 non-conference opponents (yes, I know we played KSU one game). The pandemic seems to have reduced the number of these series against eastern schools. I just don't see any Pac 12 teams that I feel have a good chance to make it to Omaha. We make sneak one in, but I'm not counting on it. |
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