Selection Monday

Three-way tie for third, but tiebreakers keep Oregon State ahead of Arizona State no matter how you slice it.  The Beavers did better the last two weekends and had a better final 10.  Other than RPI, Oregon State finished ahead of Arizona State in most metrics.  

The Sun Devils, though, played a tougher non-conference slate.  Arizona State played Cal State Fullerton in a two-game midweek series in Fullerton and beat the Titans twice.  Oregon State, by contrast, played San Diego State in a two-game midweek series at home and split.  Arizona State played Arizona in midweek games (split), instead of Oregon (split).  Arizona State's three-game mid-season non-conference series was against New Mexico (sweep), rather than Central Arkansas (sweep).  Arizona State's non-conference strength of schedule was 72.  Oregon State's non-conference strength of schedule was 209.  I think that the Beavers are clearly a better team than the Devils and the head-to-head series showed that, but Arizona State scheduled to win this argument and won it resoundingly.

The Huskies also played a tougher non-conference slate.  Washington's two-game midweek series was against Gonzaga (split).  The Huskies mid-season non-conference series was against St. Mary's (3-1).

Basically, Oregon State's non-conference schedule was cowardly, and they were punished for it.  Still, win one more game and the Beavers' scheduling works out to their benefit.

The other issue here is that Oregon State waited until the last weekend to get above .500 in conference. The committee started the process of selecting at larges on Friday.  Arizona State was still undoubtedly ahead of Oregon State in the selection order even on Saturday.  The Beavers made their move too late in the process.

A third issue is that the Pac-12 conference does not have a tournament, whereas the overwhelming majority of conferences have a tournament.  

Having said that, the real issue here is that the one-championship-in-60-years ACC had 10 bids, while the Pac-12 is left arguing that it is a five-bid conference, instead of a four-bid conference.  The Pac-12's fourth-best team is better than the ACC's 10th best team every year.  Oregon State has more national championships itself than the entire ACC over the past 60 years.  The Beavers staying home, so a team that could not even finish in the top 8 of the ACC is wildly inequitable.

When I was at OSU, I went down the the WOW Hall in Eugene and caught Arlo - 1977 give or take a year. 

Of the first 11 games, nine were neutral site and two were road games.  The only teams with RPIs in the top 100 were Minnesota, which lost to Oregon State and still got into the tournament as an at large with a worse RPI; Utah, which finished with a losing record; and William & Mary, which finished second in the Colonial Athletic Association.  The next highest RPI?  San Diego, who the Beavers played twice.  San Diego finished seventh in the nine-team West Coast Conference.  Oregon State played Kansas and Kansas State twice on a neutral field.  Those two teams finished at the bottom of the nine-team Big 12.  Oregon State played Utah Valley, which finished third in the WAC.  Finally, Oregon State  beat Ball State, which finished third in the MAC.  Not exactly a murderer's row there.  Although, the Minnesota win alone should have punched the Beavers' ticket.

Perhaps cowardly is the wrong word?  Dumb would be the other.  Either Oregon State is avoiding trouble by playing poor teams, or Oregon State is not bright enough to put together a non-conference slate with teams that RPI eats up but are actually terrible.  Cowardly or incompetent.  Those are your choices.  I was leaning toward cowardly, but you could talk me into incompetent.