ironbeaver
Freshman
looking forward to Beaver Football!
Posts: 213
Grad Year: graduated high school in 2014 :D
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Post by ironbeaver on Apr 25, 2021 18:18:18 GMT -8
The Beavs under Canham regime have left a jaw dropping appalling 250+ Beavs On Base!!
Even though this is not a record in the NCAA it should be because the beavs lead it for sure!
Imagine the runs we coulda put in from all those 250 beavs left on base!! 🤯🤯
(Also, Hi! I’m new here! Go Beavs!)
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Post by ricke71 on Apr 25, 2021 18:58:07 GMT -8
The Beavs under Canham regime have left a jaw dropping appalling 250+ Beavs On Base!! Even though this is not a record in the NCAA it should be because the beavs lead it for sure! Imagine the runs we coulda put in from all those 250 beavs left on base!! 🤯🤯
(Also, Hi! I’m new here! Go Beavs!) Hello! Indeed LOB is something that drives fans of all teams, nuts. But, LOB is an odd stat. A comprehensive analysis (using MLB 2008 stats) done by Gabe Costa, used 4 teams, representing worst winning pct., the best W% team, and in-between (Angels, Mariners, Indians, and Yankees). It concludes: "The data appears to say that the amount of men a team leaves on base in a game does not correlate to whether a team wins or loses, the amount of runs a team scores, or how many runs a team wins or loses by. To further validate my analysis of the data, I found, for each of the four teams, how many men each team left on base per nine innings batted, and what their winning percentage was for 2008. I eyeballed a graph of the data to see if I could see a correlation: I saw none!
At the end of the day, my hypothesis turned out to be half right. Team LOB positively correlates only very-weakly to the amount of runs a team scores, and not at all to winning or losing. However, based on this data, I feel safe in saying that team LOB has no correlation to whether a team wins or loses or how many runs it scores.
Managers: please stop using Team LOB as a catchall excuse for losing.
Fans: please stop using Team LOB as a scapegoat for why your team lost."
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Post by irimi on Apr 25, 2021 19:02:30 GMT -8
Welcome! It is crazy the number of men we've left on base. But leaving a guy on third base with no outs is far more damning than leaving a guy on first or even second with an out or two already recorded. We saw the former in today's game. So frustrating!
Gotta get the timely hits.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 25, 2021 19:04:34 GMT -8
The real stat would be LOB in scoring position with less than two outs
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Post by chinmusic on Apr 25, 2021 20:37:22 GMT -8
There are 9 ways to score with a runner at 3B. There are 2 ways to score a runner from 2B. Moral: Get your base runners to 3B.
LOB correlates to nothing.
"Clutch hitting is a myth" No data supports it. Good hitters hit in the clutch. Poor hitters do not. The late, great Tony Gwynn put it perfectly. "Good hitters go the plate to hit. They don't care where anybody is - on base or in the dugout."
Adley Rutschman was a great clutch hitter at OSU because Adley was a great hitter, period.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 25, 2021 21:15:01 GMT -8
The Beavs under Canham regime have left a jaw dropping appalling 250+ Beavs On Base!! Even though this is not a record in the NCAA it should be because the beavs lead it for sure! Imagine the runs we coulda put in from all those 250 beavs left on base!! 🤯🤯 (Also, Hi! I’m new here! Go Beavs!) In 52 games in 2020 and 2021, Oregon State "left a jaw dropping appalling 250+ Beavs on Base!!" In 68 games in 2018, Oregon State left a jaw-dropping, appalling 580 Beavs on Base! Conclusion: Oregon State had to have been worse in 2018 than in 2020 or 2021, because science!
The Beavers have finished with more men LOB than their opponents in every season since at least 1998. The stats get too difficult for me to easily track before that, but it is possible that Pat Casey's Beavers always finished with more LOB than their opponents. So, all of this is nothing new.
(Also, welcome! If I am not screaming at you, it is because you are not saying anything interesting. Stay interesting, my friend.) |
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Post by beaverstever on Apr 25, 2021 21:36:12 GMT -8
We could reduce our hit number so that we can drive down that high LOB number.
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Post by OSUprof on Apr 26, 2021 7:39:08 GMT -8
Should fans be worried about OSU leaving too many runners stranded on base?
No, not really.
Radio commentators (Mike Parker!), fans in the stands, and writers in the media all seem to issue cautionary statements regarding OSU baseball games where OSU strands more runners than their opponents.
Left on base (abbreviated LOB) is not a baseball performance statistic, but is really used as a check on the box score (team plate appearances in a game = runs scored + LOB + times put out). Team LOB and opponent’s LOB is reported on the box score and is kept not only for single games but also for the season as well.
Is it bad for a team to strand more runners than the opponent? An examination of LOB expressed on a per game basis reveals some interesting trends. OSU has consistently had a higher LOB than opponents over the last 16 seasons. This has been a cause for concern among fans and is regularly noted on-air by OSU’s radio announcer. OSU has left on average 1.2 more runners on base per game than their opponents during this period. This season, OSU has left 334 on base. That is 8.8 runners LOB per game so far in 2021. The 2005 and 2006 teams left 9.2 and 9.1 LOB/game respectively, on their way to Omaha in each of those years.
Is the stranding of too many runners only an OSU phenomenon? Examination of the LOB statistics for the past 16 CWS winners shows that 14 of the 16 champions had a greater LOB than their opponents over the course of the season. On average, CWS winners strand 1.0 more runners per game than their opponents. OSU is currently stranding 1.6/game more than their opponents.
Do bad teams strand more runners? Over the last 16 years, the last place teams in the Pac-10/12 have averaged 7.4 runners per game LOB while their opponents have averaged 7.9 runners LOB per game. Bad teams leave FEWER runners than their opponents, and in this case, 0.5 fewer runners per game were stranded by last place teams compared with their opponents.
Good offensive teams put more runners on base and as a consequence, often they leave more runners on base than their opponents. Fans believe that leaving too many runners is thought to be the cause of losses. But there is only one way a team loses to another in baseball – that’s by scoring fewer runs than your opponent, not by stranding too many runners. |
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Post by charlie1934 on Apr 26, 2021 7:52:07 GMT -8
Bottom line: we lost yesterday because our most dangerous hitter was sitting on the bench with an injury.
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 26, 2021 10:04:45 GMT -8
Bottom Line, it is not LOB (left on base), but LOB (Let on Base) that is killing us. Cut our walks and hbp in half and we win half the games we have lost. We scored a ton of runs this weekend, but between the mound and home plate - we have a glaring level of erratic performance. Have never seen this many walks or hbp from any Beaver staff.
My theory is that contrary to popular belief (mine included), you can have too much depth, and thus not enough experience - there are only so many innings in a season, and combine that with the fact that guys are looking over their shoulders if things get at all dicey - We have avoided major physical problems, but as Yogi said “Ninety percent of the game is half mental.”
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 26, 2021 10:08:33 GMT -8
Bottom line: we lost yesterday because our most dangerous hitter was sitting on the bench with an injury. Bottom line: we lost because our pitchers could not get the third out - how many runs did UC score with two outs? |
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Post by ricke71 on Apr 26, 2021 10:41:24 GMT -8
Bottom line: we lost yesterday because our most dangerous hitter was sitting on the bench with an injury. Bottom line: we lost because our pitchers could not get the third out - how many runs did UC score with two outs? It was not getting that THIRD STRIKE that really bothered me. So many 0-2 or 1-2 counts that didn't result in a SO...or even an out. The UCI hitters were somehow channeling some crazy combination of Ichiro and Tony Gwynn (and Nick Madrigal!) once they got 2 strikes on them. Meckler (2-5 & a BB) did a great job of filing in for Melton. Plus, the bonus HR by Froemke. Melton's presence may not have done more than that. |
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Post by irimi on Apr 26, 2021 11:45:02 GMT -8
Bottom line: we lost yesterday because our most dangerous hitter was sitting on the bench with an injury. Yeah, no. While having Melton hit may have helped the Beavers secure a victory, we still lost on Saturday with him in the lineup. There were several points in the game yesterday that could have swung the outcome in one direction or the other. Lots of little breaks that didn’t go our way and we couldn’t plug all the holes. There was enough talent on the field and at the plate to win it for the Beavs, which is why it went to extra innings. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 26, 2021 20:00:43 GMT -8
Bottom line: we lost yesterday because our most dangerous hitter was sitting on the bench with an injury. Yeah, no. While having Melton hit may have helped the Beavers secure a victory, we still lost on Saturday with him in the lineup. There were several points in the game yesterday that could have swung the outcome in one direction or the other. Lots of little breaks that didn’t go our way and we couldn’t plug all the holes. There was enough talent on the field and at the plate to win it for the Beavs, which is why it went to extra innings. We lost in Saturday by giving up 11 runs. Melton scored two runs. If he had done that against Irvine on Sunday, Oregon State would have won 8-7. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 26, 2021 20:05:52 GMT -8
Bottom line: we lost yesterday because our most dangerous hitter was sitting on the bench with an injury. Bottom line: we lost because our pitchers could not get the third out - how many runs did UC score with two outs? Two on Sunday. Two additional runs were unearned. Gavin Logan's only error on the year came at a very unfortunate time. |
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