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Post by mbabeav on Apr 18, 2021 14:12:09 GMT -8
Half way through the Pac, we're 10-5 and in 1st place. But we face 4 of our 5 toughest series starting in two weeks. We go 10-5 the last half, I think we win the conference. But that is going to be a big ask. It's the stretch run that either gives us a top 16 seed and an inside track to Omaha, or a 3rd seed and getting it all the harder way.
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Post by beaver55to7 on Apr 18, 2021 16:45:26 GMT -8
Half way through the Pac, we're 10-5 and in 1st place. But we face 4 of our 5 toughest series starting in two weeks. We go 10-5 the last half, I think we win the conference. But that is going to be a big ask. It's the stretch run that either gives us a top 16 seed and an inside track to Omaha, or a 3rd seed and getting it all the harder way. Seems more likely that 8 or 9 losses wins the conference, 10 losses probably gets us second place. Let’s get hot and get 2 sweeps and 3 series wins, seems doable. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 18, 2021 17:32:01 GMT -8
Half way through the Pac, we're 10-5 and in 1st place. But we face 4 of our 5 toughest series starting in two weeks. We go 10-5 the last half, I think we win the conference. But that is going to be a big ask. It's the stretch run that either gives us a top 16 seed and an inside track to Omaha, or a 3rd seed and getting it all the harder way. Since 2012, the only time that the Pac-12 Champion had fewer than 22 wins was 2016. And the Pac-12 Champion did not host that year. UCLA went 15-2 in the back half of the season in 2019 (probably would have been 16-2, if the game in Eugene had not rained out) to win the conference with a 24-5 overall record. Any of the teams that have had byes so far would better that 20-10 mark. Stanford went 13-5 in the back half of the season in 2018 to win the conference with a 22-8 overall record. Oregon and Stanford would better 20-10 with a 13-5 back half of the season. Oregon State went 13-2 in the back half of the season in 2017 to win the conference with a 27-3 overall record. Schools ranked second through sixth would win the Pac-12 with that back half of the season. |
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Post by 56chevy on Apr 18, 2021 18:47:49 GMT -8
27-3 was and is a Pac 12 record.
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 18, 2021 19:03:05 GMT -8
Half way through the Pac, we're 10-5 and in 1st place. But we face 4 of our 5 toughest series starting in two weeks. We go 10-5 the last half, I think we win the conference. But that is going to be a big ask. It's the stretch run that either gives us a top 16 seed and an inside track to Omaha, or a 3rd seed and getting it all the harder way. Since 2012, the only time that the Pac-12 Champion had fewer than 22 wins was 2016. And the Pac-12 Champion did not host that year. UCLA went 15-2 in the back half of the season in 2019 (probably would have been 16-2, if the game in Eugene had not rained out) to win the conference with a 24-5 overall record. Any of the teams that have had byes so far would better that 20-10 mark. Stanford went 13-5 in the back half of the season in 2018 to win the conference with a 22-8 overall record. Oregon and Stanford would better 20-10 with a 13-5 back half of the season. Oregon State went 13-2 in the back half of the season in 2017 to win the conference with a 27-3 overall record. Schools ranked second through sixth would win the Pac-12 with that back half of the season. This is a year of relative parity in the league. No one is guaranteed a series win at any given time just based on pure dominating talent or consistent play. UCLA has won 5 straight, but that is the best existing win streak of any Pac team. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 18, 2021 21:00:58 GMT -8
Since 2012, the only time that the Pac-12 Champion had fewer than 22 wins was 2016. And the Pac-12 Champion did not host that year. UCLA went 15-2 in the back half of the season in 2019 (probably would have been 16-2, if the game in Eugene had not rained out) to win the conference with a 24-5 overall record. Any of the teams that have had byes so far would better that 20-10 mark. Stanford went 13-5 in the back half of the season in 2018 to win the conference with a 22-8 overall record. Oregon and Stanford would better 20-10 with a 13-5 back half of the season. Oregon State went 13-2 in the back half of the season in 2017 to win the conference with a 27-3 overall record. Schools ranked second through sixth would win the Pac-12 with that back half of the season. This is a year of relative parity in the league. No one is guaranteed a series win at any given time just based on pure dominating talent or consistent play. UCLA has won 5 straight, but that is the best existing win streak of any Pac team. Look at Oregon's schedule. Oregon plays UCLA, @ Washington State, Washington, @ Utah, Stanford and @ California. Oregon State went 10-2 against Washington State, Washington, Utah and California. If the Ducks do that, they are 18-6. At that point, you need Oregon to lose to home series or to have Stanford or UCLA sweep Oregon in Eugene. That's possible, but I think that the Ducks winning four or five of the six is more probably. There you have Oregon at 22-8 or 23-7. On the other hand, you have UCLA. The Bruins play @ Oregon, Oregon State, @ Washington State, California and @ Arizona State. Oregon State went 5-1 against California and Washington State. That puts UCLA at 14-7. If UCLA sweeps Oregon in Eugene to set up a scenario where the Ducks do not win the conference, the Bruins are 17-7. At that point, you would need UCLA to do not better than split the remaining six games and you would need Oregon State to win a majority of games in Los Angeles for that to happen. It is also important to note that, even though Oregon State leads the Pac-12, the Beavers do not lead in losses. Only Oregon and Stanford control their own destiny with regards to the Pac-12 Conference Championship. In order for the Beavers to regain their own destiny, the Ducks would have to lose at least twice. To put it even further into focus. The only way that Oregon State stays atop the Pac-12 this weekend is to have UCLA take the series in Eugene (but not sweep), USC to beat Arizona at least once in Tucson and for Washington to win at least one game against Stanford at Sunken Diamond. And Oregon State would still be behind at least one team in the win column (UCLA) at that point. In order to stay ahead in the win column (Oregon or UCLA will pass Oregon State no matter what, depending upon who wins the series) against as many teams as possible, you would need for USC to take the series in Tucson and for Utah to win at least one against Arizona State. I mean, it's certainly possible, but I believe that it is wildly improbable at this point. Simply, there has been some parity, but it has not been crazy like in 2016. |
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Post by 56chevy on Apr 18, 2021 22:08:36 GMT -8
As I understand it, the NCAA is presenting regional and super regional locations. Winning the league, being a national seed and hosting a regional by being in the top 16 are not what they have been in previous years. I agree it is unlikely we win the league. I'm much more interested in seeing how we are playing 3 weeks from now. All the pieces are there if we can get hot. The CAL series allows us to step away from the ledge after last weekend but we need to sustain this momentum over time.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 19, 2021 8:51:20 GMT -8
Getting the Cal sweep was huge. We were down in all three games, and could've easily lost the series had a few things not gone our way.
Talking about the future, and how the conference will shake out is fun, but I want to focus on the next one......gotta take care of biz Tues against portland..... Hope our guys aren't overlooking them, as Irvine, down there, will be a tough road series.
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Post by Ruh Roh Beav on Apr 19, 2021 10:09:13 GMT -8
That last loss to Utah and the Ucks are hard to take right now. Both of those should have been wins. UCLA is starting to hit their stride so hopefully they can knock the Ucks off a couple of games in their series. One game at a time.....hopefully we can build off this last series and use it for a couple more months
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 19, 2021 11:53:50 GMT -8
I know I said I wanna focus on the one in front of us, but t I looked at ucla's schedule and they don't have midweek games before we play em.....we go from irvine to two midweek games with LMU, to ucla series......thats a big road trip that will put our pitching depth to the test......
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 19, 2021 12:52:10 GMT -8
As I understand it, the NCAA is presenting regional and super regional locations. Winning the league, being a national seed and hosting a regional by being in the top 16 are not what they have been in previous years. I agree it is unlikely we win the league. I'm much more interested in seeing how we are playing 3 weeks from now. All the pieces are there if we can get hot. The CAL series allows us to step away from the ledge after last weekend but we need to sustain this momentum over time. You bring up an excellent point. Did Oregon State even put in a bid? I know that Arkansas and Nebraska put in bids. I believe that Mississippi State put in a bid, as well. If the Beavers are serious about hosting, they need to have a great showing against Portland, UC Irvine, Loyola-Marymount, UCLA and USC, because I think that hosts will be announced shortly thereafter. |
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Post by beaver1989 on Apr 19, 2021 16:33:49 GMT -8
I know I said I wanna focus on the one in front of us, but t I looked at ucla's schedule and they don't have midweek games before we play em.....we go from irvine to two midweek games with LMU, to ucla series......thats a big road trip that will put our pitching depth to the test...... When we play the Friday game against Irvine, it'll be the start of 8 games in 10 days. We're going to see what we're made of on this little trip through California. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 27, 2021 12:16:21 GMT -8
This is a year of relative parity in the league. No one is guaranteed a series win at any given time just based on pure dominating talent or consistent play. UCLA has won 5 straight, but that is the best existing win streak of any Pac team. Look at Oregon's schedule. Oregon plays UCLA, @ Washington State, Washington, @ Utah, Stanford and @ California. Oregon State went 10-2 against Washington State, Washington, Utah and California. If the Ducks do that, they are 18-6. At that point, you need Oregon to lose to home series or to have Stanford or UCLA sweep Oregon in Eugene. That's possible, but I think that the Ducks winning four or five of the six is more probably. There you have Oregon at 22-8 or 23-7. On the other hand, you have UCLA. The Bruins play @ Oregon, Oregon State, @ Washington State, California and @ Arizona State. Oregon State went 5-1 against California and Washington State. That puts UCLA at 14-7. If UCLA sweeps Oregon in Eugene to set up a scenario where the Ducks do not win the conference, the Bruins are 17-7. At that point, you would need UCLA to do not better than split the remaining six games and you would need Oregon State to win a majority of games in Los Angeles for that to happen. It is also important to note that, even though Oregon State leads the Pac-12, the Beavers do not lead in losses. Only Oregon and Stanford control their own destiny with regards to the Pac-12 Conference Championship. In order for the Beavers to regain their own destiny, the Ducks would have to lose at least twice. To put it even further into focus. The only way that Oregon State stays atop the Pac-12 this weekend is to have UCLA take the series in Eugene (but not sweep), USC to beat Arizona at least once in Tucson and for Washington to win at least one game against Stanford at Sunken Diamond. And Oregon State would still be behind at least one team in the win column (UCLA) at that point. In order to stay ahead in the win column (Oregon or UCLA will pass Oregon State no matter what, depending upon who wins the series) against as many teams as possible, you would need for USC to take the series in Tucson and for Utah to win at least one against Arizona State. I mean, it's certainly possible, but I believe that it is wildly improbable at this point. Simply, there has been some parity, but it has not been crazy like in 2016. Oregon and Stanford still control their own destiny with regards to the Pac-12 Conference Championship. The Ducks lost once. Oregon State needs Oregon to lose once more in order for the Beavers to regain their own destiny. Oregon beat UCLA twice. Arizona swept. And Stanford and Washington was cancelled. The result? There is now a four-way tie for first place between Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford. Arizona has already defeated Oregon and Oregon has already defeated Oregon State. But the other games are still to be played. Of the four teams at the top, the one with the softest schedule moving forward is Oregon, which plays @ Washington State, Washington @ Utah, Stanford and @ California. Arizona also has a soft finish, playing Utah, @ Stanford, Washington, @ Oregon State and Dixie State. Stanford has already beat UCLA and Arizona State in Phoenix. However, the Cardinal's final five series are @ USC, Arizona, @ California, @ Oregon and Oregon State. (It probably would have been helpful for Stanford to play Washington at Sunken Diamond, as the Huskies currently are sitting in dead last in the Pac-12.) Oregon State has the hardest schedule left: @ UCLA, USC, @ Arizona State, Arizona and @ Stanford. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 27, 2021 13:02:10 GMT -8
Look at Oregon's schedule. Oregon plays UCLA, @ Washington State, Washington, @ Utah, Stanford and @ California. Oregon State went 10-2 against Washington State, Washington, Utah and California. If the Ducks do that, they are 18-6. At that point, you need Oregon to lose to home series or to have Stanford or UCLA sweep Oregon in Eugene. That's possible, but I think that the Ducks winning four or five of the six is more probably. There you have Oregon at 22-8 or 23-7. On the other hand, you have UCLA. The Bruins play @ Oregon, Oregon State, @ Washington State, California and @ Arizona State. Oregon State went 5-1 against California and Washington State. That puts UCLA at 14-7. If UCLA sweeps Oregon in Eugene to set up a scenario where the Ducks do not win the conference, the Bruins are 17-7. At that point, you would need UCLA to do not better than split the remaining six games and you would need Oregon State to win a majority of games in Los Angeles for that to happen. It is also important to note that, even though Oregon State leads the Pac-12, the Beavers do not lead in losses. Only Oregon and Stanford control their own destiny with regards to the Pac-12 Conference Championship. In order for the Beavers to regain their own destiny, the Ducks would have to lose at least twice. To put it even further into focus. The only way that Oregon State stays atop the Pac-12 this weekend is to have UCLA take the series in Eugene (but not sweep), USC to beat Arizona at least once in Tucson and for Washington to win at least one game against Stanford at Sunken Diamond. And Oregon State would still be behind at least one team in the win column (UCLA) at that point. In order to stay ahead in the win column (Oregon or UCLA will pass Oregon State no matter what, depending upon who wins the series) against as many teams as possible, you would need for USC to take the series in Tucson and for Utah to win at least one against Arizona State. I mean, it's certainly possible, but I believe that it is wildly improbable at this point. Simply, there has been some parity, but it has not been crazy like in 2016. Oregon and Stanford still control their own destiny with regards to the Pac-12 Conference Championship. The Ducks lost once. Oregon State needs Oregon to lose once more in order for the Beavers to regain their own destiny. Oregon beat UCLA twice. Arizona swept. And Stanford and Washington was cancelled. The result? There is now a four-way tie for first place between Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford. Arizona has already defeated Oregon and Oregon has already defeated Oregon State. But the other games are still to be played. Of the four teams at the top, the one with the softest schedule moving forward is Oregon, which plays @ Washington State, Washington @ Utah, Stanford and @ California. Arizona also has a soft finish, playing Utah, @ Stanford, Washington, @ Oregon State and Dixie State. Stanford has already beat UCLA and Arizona State in Phoenix. However, the Cardinal's final five series are @ USC, Arizona, @ California, @ Oregon and Oregon State. (It probably would have been helpful for Stanford to play Washington at Sunken Diamond, as the Huskies currently are sitting in dead last in the Pac-12.) Oregon State has the hardest schedule left: @ UCLA, USC, @ Arizona State, Arizona and @ Stanford. It's gonna be nuts!! |
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Post by Ruh Roh Beav on Apr 27, 2021 13:57:16 GMT -8
My take was the winner of the civil war would be one of the front runners to win the Pac. I haven’t seen anything after this last weekend to steer me otherwise. While UC Irvine is a good squad, Beavs should have prevailed in that series but the inconsistencies continue to plague us. It’s been that way for most of the tougher series and unless they clean up the walks and HBP, the Beavs will find themselves on the road during the playoffs. But that being said, my hope is that they eliminate these pitfalls at the end of the season and make a run during the tournament.
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